Sea ice thermal flux profiles , as demonstrated by the horizon.

~Part 1 ,  sea water to very thin sea ice
~ An attempt to explain what happens at the sea to air interface when sea ice forms

    I was going to demonstrate possible clashing between buoy data and refraction observations.  But it is now known that above sea ice Mass Buoys thermistors exaggerate
the snow or air layer temperatures a great deal.   Buoy 2015A had 20 cm of snow with temperatures in excess of +7 C,  while surface temperatures was +1.48 C (thanks to Jim Hunt for good detective work).   It is not impossible for snow surface to be warmer than the air when its sunny.  But it is impossible to have snow at +7 C.     This obvious flaw asserts questions and doubts  about for above ice string thermistors.  Moreover this data is lost to what should have been computer Model output verifications.  It is a loss which may be compensated by refraction observations.

Simple initial sea ice formation;
                                 
     Easy as it seems,  thermally speaking it is not, we let the horizon demonstrate,  but after several freeze-up seasons of observation,  the problem was to be sure if the sea ice has been totally covered all the way till the horizon.   Any open water affects the horizon line elevation.    Arctic sea water is magnificently stable in temperature,  so its horizon line varies almost exclusively with air temperature change:

   A much lowered horizon is due to "sinking",  the surface temperature is "about" 6.2 degrees warmer than air,  "about" because the horizon line changes position with the temperature differences between the entire light path which is never measured.    The few bits of ice are also miraged.  

     The most difficult analysis possible is to see what happens when sea ice forms over a wide expanse at once,  but what seems fairly certain,  there is no ice thickness limit by which the horizon always rises above true astronomical horizon.  This seems to be an astounding discovery:

   2014 October 3 (left) and the next day.  The horizon at left is about 17 km distant,  (at right) more than 25 Kilometers away.   Mostly water horizon turns to 100 % sea ice.  Similar freeze-ups were re- observed in 2013 and 2012.   It does not matter how thick the ice is,  it will set the horizon above astronomical line as long as the sea is completely covered with ice.  But the finer details,  from very low horizon of open water under a deep freezing air,  to above astronomical when sea ice covers everything,  need be carefully studied since it helps determine thermal flux  balance in one glimpse.  Usually the very low pre-freezing sea water horizon does not last long because the very cold air changes the state of sea surface.   Recent years freeze-ups happened because of colder Southern in provenance atmospheric advection , with the exception of 2013,  sea water was so warmed air temperatures needed to be below -11 C.

    High precision satellite pictures along with a careful analysis of a surface phase change would be quite revealing.   The reason for various horizon heights have everything to do with thermal fluxes.  As winter progresses,  the horizon changes until spring when the sun literally gives a similar horizon look,  but for entirely different  reasons than at freeze-up.   The very low sinking horizon exists because of a very steep near surface adiabatic profile,  the raised horizon on account of a completely ice covered sea,  is caused by looming  by profiles having stable inversions varying in strength based entirely on the current thermal balance.  This indirectly identifies ice thickness because
thicker sea ice has a cold or warm "core", significantly affecting thermodynamic action.   WD May 10,2015

It is shaping up like 2007

~Warmest NorthWest passage spring and the creation of a circulation Dipole

     Latest EH2r refraction Upper Air of NW passage data is warmest ever in 14 seasons.
Mid April projection of Cold Temperature North Pole locations is so far so good accurate.    But the greatest implication is a circulation pattern similar to 2007.

        2007 (extreme left), compared to 2012, 13 and 15 coldest air in the Northern Atmosphere locations.   2015 Refraction of sun disks over the NW passage is the least ever measured confirming NOAA summary above,  the more the upper air is cold the smaller the vertical diameter of the sun. Up to today,   2015 expanded sun disks  is an order of magnitude higher than warmest 2005 and 2010.   The obvious resulting  circulation pattern is favorable for High Pressure system over Beaufort Sea  very similar to 2007. WD May 7,2015

Latent heat of fusion complexities

~In search of intricate thermal patterns within sea ice.

    Latest refraction observations do not always match mass buoys data at similar latitudes to 74 North,  this is quite interesting,  it is not a matter of reconciling the data with observations,  but rather understanding if there is any way of revealing the most intimate thermal actions, and also finding out if there is data error by solar radiation affecting top buoy thermistors .   The information readily available is sparse, resolution is not as desired,  but there is some basic numbers which come out quite well.

      Latent heat of fusion dictates when ice freezes there is a substantial release of heat,  it is rather energy from extremely kinetic molecules stabilizing to a crystallin form,  this energy may be observed near the North Pole,  there is a buoy moving under the presence of permanent sun rays  hitting the sea ice surface  continuously except by clouds and snow cover;

"04/30/2015 08:00","     88.6400","    -23.6731","GPS","    -10.83","   1025.60","      0.06","      1.89","      0.00","     -1.89","    -10.45","    -10.45","    -10.47","    -10.56","    -10.50","    -10.42","    -10.01","     -9.97","     -9.88","     -9.82","     -9.64","     -9.35","     -9.12","     -8.82","     -8.53","     -8.00","     -7.75","     -7.40","     -7.02","     -6.67","     -6.24","     -5.89","     -5.57","     -5.04","     -4.64","     -4.15","     -3.71","     -3.22","     -2.73","     -2.25","     -1.81","     -1.86","     -1.78","     -1.83","     -1.81","     -1.79","     -1.81","     -1.80","     -1.79","     -1.78","     -1.80","     -1.82","     -1.80","     -1.82","     -1.84"
"04/30/2015 09:00","     88.6394","    -23.6587","GPS","    -11.24","   1025.71","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","",""
"04/30/2015 10:00","     88.6388","    -23.6399","GPS","    -11.03","   1025.71","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","",""
"04/30/2015 11:00","     88.6382","    -23.6171","GPS","    -10.74","   1025.74","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","",""
"04/30/2015 12:00","     88.6377","    -23.5929","GPS","    -10.61","   1025.74","      0.06","      1.88","      0.00","     -1.88","    -10.19","    -10.19","    -10.20","    -10.29","    -10.24","    -10.11","     -9.89","     -9.87","     -9.79","     -9.75","     -9.59","     -9.32","     -9.10","     -8.80","     -8.51","     -7.98","     -7.73","     -7.38","     -7.00","     -6.65","     -6.22","     -5.88","     -5.56","     -5.03","     -4.64","     -4.14","     -3.71","     -3.22","     -2.73","     -2.25","     -1.80","     -1.86","     -1.78","     -1.83","     -1.81","     -1.79","     -1.82","     -1.80","     -1.79","     -1.77","     -1.80","     -1.82","     -1.80","     -1.82","     -1.84"
"04/30/2015 13:00","     88.6371","    -23.5673","GPS","    -10.61","   1025.81","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","",""
"04/30/2015 14:00","     88.6366","    -23.5423","GPS","    -10.66","   1025.74","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","",""
"04/30/2015 15:00","     88.6360","    -23.5206","GPS","    -10.62","   1025.81","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","",""
"04/30/2015 16:00","     88.6355","    -23.5003","GPS","    -10.64","   1025.53","      0.06","      2.01","      0.00","     -2.01","    -10.19","    -10.19","    -10.13","    -10.21","    -10.17","     -9.96","     -9.69","     -9.75","     -9.70","     -9.69","     -9.54","     -9.28","     -9.07","     -8.78","     -8.49","     -7.96","     -7.71","     -7.35","     -6.98","     -6.64","     -6.21","     -5.87","     -5.55","     -5.02","     -4.63","     -4.14","     -3.71","     -3.22","     -2.73","     -2.26","     -1.81","     -1.85","     -1.78","     -1.83","     -1.81","     -1.79","     -1.81","     -1.81","     -1.80","     -1.77","     -1.81","     -1.82","     -1.81","     -1.83","     -1.84"

        A good 230 cm (in red) of sea ice and snow has warmed when apparently 13 cm of ice was made at the bottom of the sea ice column, on april 30 sea ice thickness varied between 187 and 202 cm for weeks.  But a 13 cm gain is quite an accomplishment, especially considering surface temperature nearly equal,  or if not equal to snow surface top (in orange).  The weather during  the 8 hours presented was likely a mix between clouds and some sunshine.  But more clouds than sun.  In effect the variable but warmish polar weather is unique on Earth except at other end of the planet.  There is no diurnal temperature effect similar to a normal day at Southern latitudes.  An excellent location to observe thermal fluctuations at nearly constant sun light.   Clouds add complications which need be studied as well.

     Near North Pole Buoy clearly confirms unusual bottom of ice activity,  which should happen when Ta = Ti,  when air temperature is equal to snow/ice,  there should be melting in the sheet bottom, but the melting in itself should be complex.  Bottom ice may be less salty than sea water, a to and fro melt and freeze may happen often with different temperatures when less salty ice melts an lays less dense water on top of denser sea water.  Over summer if  high latitude near the pole ice survives ,  it can only create fantastic structures of odd geometries.  Sea Ice bottom is not as flat as on its surface.

     Looking at 2015d buoy from a distance would not show a great horizon height variation because Ta=Ti,  the horizon would be at the true astronomical elevation.
If 13 cm was formed as suggested by this data, latent heat was released,
which appears to have been recorded at some height above the ice sea water interface.
Top of sea water has also cooled compared to 4 hours prior (in blue).

     Subsequent to April 30,  the ice has no accreted further  than 201 cm,  suggesting
a state of thermal equilibrium,  when bottom melting and freezing may happen by weather fluctuations.   It is exactly like what happens to sea ice further South with a diurnal high and low sun but for shorter time period  after local apparent noon,  except noon is dragged out for months until a few weeks before autumnal equinox,  however with much weaker radiation input from a much lower in sky but steady sun.   From now own we can determine that ice accretion can no longer happen greatly as the sun will rise to more than 21 degrees high.   Further South sea ice goes through far more severe thermal fluctuations,  which highlights two types of sea ice,  North Pole ice should not fracture as easily and is under less stress than sea ice with a sun 30 to 40 degrees high at noon then setting or staying up low at midnight.  I proposed southern sea ice melting occurs after noon when sunny,  but refreezing occurs later,  reducing or stalling accretion,  this melting freezing process continues only interrupted by winds and clouds until solstice sun melts ice quite thoroughly,  but it must break up more readily than at the pole.  wd May 3,2015
 

HOW to find underground frozen water on Mars - Without NASA rover drills

-A thin atmosphere misgivings in optical height variances is surely compensated by huge diurnal temperature variations.

   The long time quest for water on Mars has been resolved for some time,  there is some,   but it may be easier to find huge permafrost lakes by simply looking at the horizon line.  Mars Permafrost,  should be similar to Arctic permafrost,  just as much as Arctic sea ice.  Permafrost leaves a drier interface than water,  but unlike water,  ice is an insulator,  like permafrost.  In the Martian under shallow rock  permafrost,  the ground temperature  should be kept colder than with thick dry rock layers. 

       Rapid conduction sun forced diurnal atmospheric inversions are a feature found with sea ice,  permafrost does the same.  Martian atmosphere is 100 times thinner than on Earth,  however there is one.  Where there is an atmosphere there is atmospheric refraction.  One must observe there more carefully.

    To prove this,  one of the rovers must take pictures  at 3 hours intervals after Local Apparent Midnight and Noon,  without moving at all.  The same pictures will show a different horizon line something like:

   A weak evening inversion happens when the sun lowers over a clear High Arctic horizon of sea ice.     Ice has a heat capacity more than twice as strong as Earth air,  heat capacity of Mars atmosphere is weaker.   However,  heat capacity of rocks ,  either on Earth or Mars is lesser than ice.  For these reasons,  if there is any ice under a relatively shallow layer of rocks,  the horizon line should vary compared to dry rock sub-surface,   with a variance lesser than on Polar Earth,  but vary nevertheless.  We should find water there by analyzing horizon permutations especially with very good  photographic equipment.  WD April 25,2014


   Ice warms or cools much slower than the Martian atmosphere,  in a given substratum,  a pure rock formation would vary horizon heights more significantly than one with permafrost.  The way to detect a variation  without multiple pictures taken from the same position would be to study wide horizon pictures which would bring out a profile look of an apparent "lake without water",  the middle of this " empty lake" would appear deeper than "shorelines".    The dry rock stratum would appear higher because rocks warm faster than ice. 

     The Mars curiosity rover has at least one such NASA picture :

   This is the kind of single picture needed to detect permafrost on Mars. There is an apparent horizon sun line,  a bright line just above the horizon, it is an optical feature from an atmospheric structure suggesting that indeed, the horizon is flat,  this bright line also implies great refraction.  The middle of the picture shows a very small drop in horizon from the right,  more prominent from the left.  Permafrost,  frozen water mixed with Mars dirt,  may be under horizon land in the middle of this picture .  This requires a verification of how flat this horizon is,  by taking multiple pictures from the same spot and from other means...   WD October 30 2017