RRR explained by open sea water and the location of the coldest Atmosphere

~The cold temperature North Pole is oscillating almost always at the same location

Complaints about extreme snowfall over the NE North American coast have nothing to do with Global Cooling. Rather everything to do with a wide area of missing sea ice. Some attribute correctly to these steady days of ground hog day like weather over the entirety of North America to Cristopher C Burt's analysis of RRR. There is a pressure ridge remarkably steady over the West North American coast area. This ridge does not move a lot like the sea ice boundary next to the Greenland Sea having sea water largely made open by recurring repeating Northeasterner Cyclones being part of an hemispheric wide circulation feedback:


Last month or so General circulation summary, repeated cyclones originating from about Florida USA and ending South of the Island of Novoya Zemlya, Russia. What attracts winter Gulf Stream Cyclones is North Atlantic open water, the more open, the longer they last. The longer they endure, the more a chance they can morph together and form an even larger Cyclonic area. A greater melt than usual of sea ice over the North Atlantic, as what happened during the last few years, exacerbated more precipitation over the entire North Atlantic area at times striking one country more than another:


At times, the shear number of cyclones morphed over a wide Arctic area, making Greenland the center of one very big cyclone. This nurtured a zonal coldest atmosphere of the world I call the Cold Temperature North Pole. But the predominant circulation from this structure is colder Central North Russian air flowing all the way to Ontario by way of the Pole. Next to this flow is coldest air thriving in darkness and is supported by the Straospheric Polar Vortex near -80 C center, together they contribute to the atmosphere compressing, becoming thinnest but really cold and dense, where all around the winds are greatest, this gives the polar jet stream as well, the center of which is the CTNP.:


Usually the CTNP migrates, fractures, is bounced around like a top, but this year it remained near North of Hudson Bay and Hudson Strait area. South Baffin Island Canada was very cold this winter, but Alaska very much opposite. The jet stream remained almost fixed in location, this guaranties the RRR to stay literally in place, for as long as the CTNP doesn't move, so does the jet stream. In green the jet stream largely placed by the thinner atmosphere either by extreme cold air or by strong very low in pressure cyclones. Cyclones in Red dominate the North Atlantic and Pacific. Whether they head North or not influences the Northern Hemisphere weather world wide.


The location of the CTNP literally dictates weather and impacts climate in the long run, especially if it is steady in location . This winters imprint is already set, a large area of sea ice, roughly centered 90 degrees East and West longitudes should have thicker sea ice. This gives a familiar look reminiscent of 2007 minima ice bridge. The continuous circulation from Central Russia to Ontario also means much drier, less snow covering the ground or sea surface, this implies a very early melt where ice is thinnest. Atlantic Cyclones repeatedly ending near Novaya Zemlya kept more open water over the North Atlantic and Greenland sea, the lately created sea ice there will be much thinner and this affects the melting season outlook. Its the combination of the colder Arctic Archipelago, the thicker 90 degrees longitude sea ice and perennially cold in darkness Greenland which locate the CTNP North Hudson Bay. As Atlantic Cyclones continue foraging Northeastwards, there is no reason to believe that the jet stream and RRR will change in position soon. If there was more sea ice over the North Atlantic, the weather would have been dramatically different. But the steady nature of current circulation pattern has everything to do with the warming of the planet and more melted sea ice.. WD February 17-18,2015

LOW energy darkness.

~Vanishing twilight days data still very compelling.

    February 12, 2015,  there are high energy Lows basically cut off by High pressure system covering a wider area of the High Arctic.  The nearest High energy systems were 976 and 991 mb in strength,  they are not expansive and isolated.  The sunlight ray path 

on feb 12 went through  a  much smaller Upper Air  dT/dZ rate (difference in temperature/altitude depth) than some preceding events. 

  

   Dec 25 santa storm brightness versus February 12 low dT/dZ sunray transect.  

The higher energy event on Dec 25 was literally more visible.  

   With -13.1 degree sun way below horizon,  the last High Arctic observation days of ideal High Energy Events  were basically free of haze particulates,  because during the long night,  there was next to no photochemistry at all.  December 25 2014 is a class 10 extra bright event which was so strong it likely affected the sea Ice extent numbers later:

    Watch closely the biggest drop in recent sea ice extent was preceded by the "santa storm" a literal heat laden from the South Atlantic cyclone which headed almost strait to the North Pole ,  eventually  it merged with other Gulf Stream cyclones and covered a huge extent of the circumpolar world,  forming a true sub vortex.   

Fast forward to today (feb 12, 2015):

   The energy systems are nowhere as intense,   where did the brightness at -12.9 degrees below the horizon gone?    Although there was one recent event rivaling December 25,  it dissipated on the North American West Coast.  But the twilight observation  days are drawing to a close. The Arctic atmosphere is loaded with photochemically sensitive aerosols,  Arctic haze will be setting in,  however the haze dissipates during darkness , so the low just returning orange sun is not sufficient to affect twilight,  not yet,  but soon there will be no weak twilight to observe.  WDFeb12,2015

North Pacific in Origin Low not as bright than from the South Atlantic.

   January 22 2015,   photo with  moon,  had clear air very similar to Dec 25, 2014.   December 25 sun elevation was -13.12 degrees,  while January -13.09 degrees,  but had twilight brightness well below December 25 2014 Santa storm shine despite somewhat similar mega scale weather.

            ECMWF map describes a pressure ridge from the Arctic Ocean and a minor Low pressure system over the Northwest Territories at pressures 30 mb higher than Santa Cyclone once over Central Quebec.    It was cold over Cornwallis Island -38 C,  while Yellowknife -19 C  very Balmy 7 degrees above normal.  The Ray Path  towards under the horizon the sun had key ingredients for a bright light energy event:

Ray path in black, meant twilight had near ideal temperature contrasts to generate more light for those living in darkness 24 hours a day.    But this low had lesser energy stored in it than during Santa storm.   The proof was in the twilight.   This latest observation continues  proving even more the great capacity in judging how strong a cyclone might be when juxtaposed to a dark zone.  With better equipment the same thing can be done with hurricanes or any high energy storm system.   WD Jan 22, 2015

Confirmation, Higher energy weather systems are brighter

~Similar weather patterns gave darker twilights
~Difference in temperatures between Low and High pressure systems is what matters


   Simplified explanation:

   A high energy weather event exists when it has more heat or overall greater kinetic (molecular motion) energy than adjoining Pressure systems.     On a modest scale, hurricanes or typhoons are high energy systems,  on a macro or very large scale Cyclones contain large quantities of heat usually characterized by moisture content or much warmer temperatures along with wind motion.  A warm cyclone having gathered heat over a warmer Ocean source, can create more light channels especially if it heads towards Northern usually always colder High Pressure systems.   These channels are  similar in nature to fiber optic cables which carry light by refraction.    A cold system immediately next to a warmer one naturally creates channels at the interface between colder and warmer air.  The sunlight present
at many such  interfaces can get diverted like a laser light through fiber optic line,  and travel beyond  the earth's terminator, the edge between light and darkness separating night and day as seen from space.  In the High Arctic at present it is dark,  but a twilight exists at noon.  This twilight changes in intensity due to the position of the sun below the horizon,  the extent and type of clouds, pollution or natural aerosols, and finally how much refraction there is in the lower and mid lower atmosphere where normally the Arctic Air is warmest in darkness.


Confirmation of Pressure system driven light variations due to atmospheric refraction.

~please read the Christmas article just below,  this is a follow up.

   December 25 2014  (left),  was visually brighter than January 9 2015 (right).  The sun elevation was -12.07 and -12.12 degrees.   On camera ,  the visual perception was confirmed.  With exact camera settings and location in both instances.

    A bit later, December 25,2014 (left) and January 9,2015 (right) appear similar,  but there are large differences.   First the hills appear higher on Dec 25,  this may be an illusion due to brightness.   Second ,  despite January 9 more sparse lower clouds,  there appears far less redness, a feature of the raised horizon, purely a refraction and scattering phenomenon.  If there were more aerosols on either photo,  the red would have appeared hazed, or more uniform ,  but instead it was layered in refraction dispersion colors.
January 9 lack of redness was likely due to lateness of twilight.   When only white
light appears.    Finally Dec 25 sun elevation was 0.3 degrees lower than on January 9.
Remarkable demonstration on to how bright Christmas day twilight was, especially since
January 9 had very clear air,  especially cleansed by a 2 day blizzard,  and the temperature  was colder over he same wide area light has travelled.  Colder air gives stronger refraction without ducts.


Weather Prognosis


    Since before December 25,  several Atlantic North-easterner Cyclones have merged into a greater huge sub Polar vortex roughly centered over Greenland,  affecting weather over a vast areas spanning from Arctic Eurasia, Scandinavia all the way to mid-west USA.    Since Christmas,   the temperatures dropped significantly over most of North America,  with temperatures higher in he High Arctic.  Clearly a reversal in contrast has occurred,  instead of a wide deep in dT  macro interface  as on Christmas,  dT were largely diminished.  Pressure systems were equally not entirely similar, December 25 had a large intrusion of warm air spanning westwards past Hudson Bay. January 9 light path Cyclone was not so significant East of Hudson Bay.

     A very similar prognosis to Dec 25,2014, misleading because temperature Upper Profiles were very different.    The  Polar Vortex had 4 components,  in 2 small anticyclones amidst 2 larger cyclones.  The biggest Low centered over Greenland basically a sub-vortex covering half the North circumpolar world.

December 25,  90 W degree longitude line (the only vertical one) demonstrates  large difference in Upper Air temperatures,  up to 30 C dT between 600 mb (left) and 1000 mb (right).   This is what gives more light.   As opposed:

January 9, 90W transect had a much milder dT but still quite significant.  Therefore less light but still a lot.  THe difference in twilight brightness proves yet another very useful
refraction method,  this time in judging the magnitude of Cyclonic systems.
The December 25 event,  not giving destruction as dramatic as a hurricane was very important not only in revealing twilight brightness effects, but also in affecting the weather over a vast segment of the circumpolar world for weeks to come.  WDJan9-13
2015