~The legendary "Big Lead" exists, it shows up in various ways depending of date of year
~This February 26 2018 showing comes with lateral and perpendicular fractures with micro-fractures
~ This usually was an early June event....
Monday, February 26, 2018
Wednesday, February 21, 2018
A different Arctic in 30 years, very cold atmospheric region moved South where land dominates
~Very thick sea ice had one major impact, it centered the Cold Temperature North Pole (CTNP) more towards the North Pole.
Moving North towards the North Pole at longitude 90 degrees West , this February 10 1988 infra red satellite picture demonstrates great white, meaning really deep cold weather spanning huge distances:
1988 NOAA daily composites with 30 day same period as above was much more colder on the anomaly side of temperatures over the Arctic Ocean in particular. WD Feb 21, 2018
~We look back and remember a different long night climate.
Moving North towards the North Pole at longitude 90 degrees West , this February 10 1988 infra red satellite picture demonstrates great white, meaning really deep cold weather spanning huge distances:
The coldest area was Northern Greenland and Ellesmere, where very thick sea ice was abundant.
Extreme North Pole trekkers starting from Northern Ellesmere experienced the frequent -45 to -50 C welcoming temperatures.
30 years later:
The great white area is much smaller with this CMC animation sequence, very well to the South of Ellesmere Island strangely not only warmer for this day February 20 2018, but for weeks!
The consequence of this much smaller cold zone shifts weather patterns for a great region of the world. Especially repeatedly directing warm Cyclones hugging Greenland's East Coast towards the North Pole then back towards the Canadian Arctic Archipelago. Making said Ellesmere way warmer than Nunavut and NWT Canada mainlands. These are different weather days. When coldest air is from the South of the High Arctic:
Looking back 30 years ago, february 8 1988, the coldest air was over the Arctic Ocean, when freezing -45 C's were common until mid March. Today the Arctic Ocean surface air is radically warmer, driven by smaller cold air vortices on both North American and Eurasian continents which move continuous ocean warmed cyclones towards the North Pole. The consequences of this results in what is called Arctic warming Amplification.
NOAA Map room 30 day surface anomaly January 20 to February 18 2018 clearly depicts a great warming of the Arctic Ocean surface air, going in tandem with thinner sea ice. 1988 NOAA daily composites with 30 day same period as above was much more colder on the anomaly side of temperatures over the Arctic Ocean in particular. WD Feb 21, 2018
Thursday, January 25, 2018
Very weak tropospheric polar vortex brings up cyclonic heat
~Smaller, weaker elongated Arctic Polar Vortex
~Coldest Vortices weakest compared to last 4 years
The current North Pacific situation is very interesting, absent a Greenlandic barrier, a significant Cyclone crashes Westwards right into the coldest vortice, yesterday North Japan had 700 mb temperatures -33 C, these numbers warm substantially at present as the Siberian coldest atmosphere will relinquish this ranking to Northern Canada's CAA very soon (**Mongolia and North central China was equally very cold, but outside the range of multi year study with same map grid). This has been mid-winter 2017-18 outlook, an oscillation between coldest atmospheres between NE Siberia and Canadian Central Arctic Archipelago , one cools while the other warms. Looking back to 2014, there has not been a warmer atmosphere than now. A key describer is the lack of -30 C vortices within the Arctic Polar Vortex. This will likely continue and result in again record warm temperatures for the Arctic, despite strong El-Nino just past.
~Coldest Vortices weakest compared to last 4 years
Based on CMC January 25 0000 UTC 700 mb data measurements, because it is closest to 600 mb, the actual average temperature of the entire troposphere, along with below 500 mb height, implicating lower atmospheric circulations. We see two important Cyclones typically going Northeastwards, the furtherest North one is following a " northern warming" path, heavily influencing the temperature of the Arctic Ocean. The elongated aspect of the North American vortex is a sign of winter weakness, readily identified by its temperatures, once called by weather TV presenters the "Polar Vortex"
was really a vortice(s) within the Polar Vortex having temperatures well below -30 C forming at a Southward location. As we can see here , none to be found in North America but for a faint one North of Alaska, which has finally got a bit colder.
**Mongolia and high elevated regions ( about 1 kilometers or more ASL) have incomparable pressure temperatures, while I aim to read at 600 mb level, but only do 700 because there is not many 600 mb charts produced, the Equivalent Mongolian pressure level to 600 mb is 450 mb, because at that pressure height lies close to the average temperature of this thinner troposphere. It is best to stick to charts from Polar stations lower than about 600 meters altitude. Jan 30 **
WD January 25-26 (second map changed on 26) 2018Sunday, January 21, 2018
Vanishing Polar Vortices
January 20 2017, 700 mb temperature measurements captured a cold mid sized Arctic Polar Vortex with 3 vortices, the larger yellow line expanse is -20 C isotherm, within are significant colder vortices having temperatures lesser than -30 C, at their center are CTNP's (Cold Temperature North Poles), all with winds turning counter clockwise around them. We note Alaska and near North of URALS Russia, having one, very unlike 2018 winter to date.
January 16 2018, A very different scene indeed, Urals and Alaska were much warmer, not only on same yearly days but throughout the winter to date. We notice the Russian Vortice CTNP being coldest in the World, but it was not always so. It has been rebuilt from a devastating North Pacific Cyclonic merge, at one time there was no significant vortex on that side, a few weeks back with Upper Air temperatures exceedingly warmer. These are the times when vortices regularly disappear in the Arctic from warm Cyclonic Northward incursions, particularly driven North by smaller in size vortices .
Notice the Canadian side Vortice in the process of vanishing, Ellesmere Island being warmer than Disko Island Greenland, quite astounding.
January 17 2018, we note the Russian vortice stable and cooling a bit. But the Canadian Arctic Archipelago vortice receiving a final literal blow of warm air coming from the North! An amazing feature, this of course changes weather patterns throughout North America. WD January 21,2018
Tuesday, January 9, 2018
T***<=Ts duplicated in a Southern location with special instrumentation
Congratulations and salutations to:
C. L. Pérez DÃaz , T. Lakhankar , P. Romanov , J. Muñoz , R. Khanbilvardi, and Y. Yu
who wrote and published:
Near–surface air temperature and snowskin temperature comparison fromCREST-SAFE station data with MODISland surface temperature data
~Although not looking for a Skin snow temperature (T***) vs Surface air (Ts) relation, a very significant paper measured it with great precision using different instrumentation. At Caribou, Maine USA (46◦ 520 5900 N, 68◦ 010 0700 W)
~ Instruments : "An Apogee Infrared Radiometer is used to measure snow skin temperature directly by converting thermal energy radiated from the surface in its field-of-view (FOV) to an electrical signal with a response time of less than 1 s (Muñoz, 2014). This process is automated at every 3 min to an accuracy of 0.2 ◦C. The air temperature is measured directly by a Vaisala Temperature/RH Probe through an automated process; also at a 3 min sampling interval with the same accuracy"
The results from this effort are very important to study:
Here are a few very important observations and conclusions from the authors (in Italics):
~"Results indicate that near-surface air temperature correlates better than snow skin temperature with MODIS LST data"
I have found that so, in particular if NOAA daily climate composites uses MODIS as their data source. I established that we can detect a satellite error by using said simple formula T***<=Ts.
~"This leads to the suspicion that maybe ground-measured LSTs in high-latitude regions covered in snow might not display congruent behavior with satellite readings. Because if the snow temperature satellite readings are far from the real values, this can lead to confusion when trying to predict the occurrence of avalanches or spring floods."
Suspicion confirmed, particularly in the Arctic, this was frequently observed while comparing NOAA daily composites, while they had skin temperature option available, a significant problem here, recognized by the authors, are irregular surface features, either not covered by snow completely or affected by high vegetation, trees for instance.
~Near-surface air temperature tends to affect the snow skin temperature directly, although the latter’s fluctuations are not as drastic (Walsh et al., 1985). The record shows that the winter of 2013 was the coldest of the two (hourly lows of −26 and −36 ◦C in late January for T -air and T -skin, respectively). However, it cannot be ruled out that it is possible for the near surface air temperature to be colder than the snow skin temperature at particular times throughout some winter days, but not common on a daily average basis."
While using much simpler instrumentation and a different technique altogether, the latter assumption: "However, it cannot be ruled out that it is possible for the near surface air temperature to be colder than the snow skin temperature at particular times throughout some winter days",
has never been measured with more primitive method, unless the ground surface has a mix configuration of snow and exposed land, similar to sea ice mix with open water, which gives a different horizon height."Near-surface air temperature tends to affect the snow skin temperature directly, although the latter’s fluctuations are not as drastic" , this has not been observed here in the High Arctic, surface temperatures and skin temperatures vary in tandem almost if not instantly, sometimes skin temperatures vary independently while surface temperatures do not and vice-versa. If the authors rather implied that very near the skin of snow air temperatures may be colder than top of snow, I do not believe so, but the temperatures can be equal.
Self published related articles:
http://eh2r.blogspot.ca/2017/12/ts-ts-is-probably-greatest-winter.html
http://eh2r.blogspot.ca/2017/03/consequential-application-of-first-rule.html
http://eh2r.blogspot.ca/2017/03/first-rule-of-sea-ice-horizon.html
http://eh2r.blogspot.ca/2017/02/summer-greater-cloudiness-thermal-flux.html
http://eh2r.blogspot.ca/2016/06/the-models-may-be-calculating-sea-ice.html
http://eh2r.blogspot.com/2016/05/optically-unlikely-not-possible-remote.html
http://eh2r.blogspot.com/2016/05/remote-sensing-vs-refraction-prime-sea.html
http://eh2r.blogspot.com/2016/04/sea-ice-refraction-prime-rule-top-of_28.html
http://eh2r.blogspot.com/2016/04/sea-ice-refraction-prime-rule-top-of_28.html
http://eh2r.blogspot.com/2015/05/dedicated-sea-ice-model-proofing.html
http://eh2r.blogspot.com/2014/04/sea-ice-thermal-balance-appears-to-be.html
http://eh2r.blogspot.ca/2014/06/from-optical-based-hypothesis-to-reality.html
http://eh2r.blogspot.com/2014/06/hrpt-skin-temperature-muddle.html
http://eh2r.blogspot.com/2013/05/sea-ice-phase-change-from-underside.html
http://eh2r.blogspot.com/2013/04/data-gathered-from-optical-refraction.html
WD January 9, 2018
C. L. Pérez DÃaz , T. Lakhankar , P. Romanov , J. Muñoz , R. Khanbilvardi, and Y. Yu
who wrote and published:
Near–surface air temperature and snowskin temperature comparison fromCREST-SAFE station data with MODISland surface temperature data
~Although not looking for a Skin snow temperature (T***) vs Surface air (Ts) relation, a very significant paper measured it with great precision using different instrumentation. At Caribou, Maine USA (46◦ 520 5900 N, 68◦ 010 0700 W)
~ Instruments : "An Apogee Infrared Radiometer is used to measure snow skin temperature directly by converting thermal energy radiated from the surface in its field-of-view (FOV) to an electrical signal with a response time of less than 1 s (Muñoz, 2014). This process is automated at every 3 min to an accuracy of 0.2 ◦C. The air temperature is measured directly by a Vaisala Temperature/RH Probe through an automated process; also at a 3 min sampling interval with the same accuracy"
The results from this effort are very important to study:
Here are a few very important observations and conclusions from the authors (in Italics):
~"Results indicate that near-surface air temperature correlates better than snow skin temperature with MODIS LST data"
I have found that so, in particular if NOAA daily climate composites uses MODIS as their data source. I established that we can detect a satellite error by using said simple formula T***<=Ts.
~"This leads to the suspicion that maybe ground-measured LSTs in high-latitude regions covered in snow might not display congruent behavior with satellite readings. Because if the snow temperature satellite readings are far from the real values, this can lead to confusion when trying to predict the occurrence of avalanches or spring floods."
Suspicion confirmed, particularly in the Arctic, this was frequently observed while comparing NOAA daily composites, while they had skin temperature option available, a significant problem here, recognized by the authors, are irregular surface features, either not covered by snow completely or affected by high vegetation, trees for instance.
~Near-surface air temperature tends to affect the snow skin temperature directly, although the latter’s fluctuations are not as drastic (Walsh et al., 1985). The record shows that the winter of 2013 was the coldest of the two (hourly lows of −26 and −36 ◦C in late January for T -air and T -skin, respectively). However, it cannot be ruled out that it is possible for the near surface air temperature to be colder than the snow skin temperature at particular times throughout some winter days, but not common on a daily average basis."
While using much simpler instrumentation and a different technique altogether, the latter assumption: "However, it cannot be ruled out that it is possible for the near surface air temperature to be colder than the snow skin temperature at particular times throughout some winter days",
has never been measured with more primitive method, unless the ground surface has a mix configuration of snow and exposed land, similar to sea ice mix with open water, which gives a different horizon height."Near-surface air temperature tends to affect the snow skin temperature directly, although the latter’s fluctuations are not as drastic" , this has not been observed here in the High Arctic, surface temperatures and skin temperatures vary in tandem almost if not instantly, sometimes skin temperatures vary independently while surface temperatures do not and vice-versa. If the authors rather implied that very near the skin of snow air temperatures may be colder than top of snow, I do not believe so, but the temperatures can be equal.
Self published related articles:
http://eh2r.blogspot.ca/2017/12/ts-ts-is-probably-greatest-winter.html
http://eh2r.blogspot.ca/2017/03/consequential-application-of-first-rule.html
http://eh2r.blogspot.ca/2017/03/first-rule-of-sea-ice-horizon.html
http://eh2r.blogspot.ca/2017/02/summer-greater-cloudiness-thermal-flux.html
http://eh2r.blogspot.ca/2016/06/the-models-may-be-calculating-sea-ice.html
http://eh2r.blogspot.com/2016/05/optically-unlikely-not-possible-remote.html
http://eh2r.blogspot.com/2016/05/remote-sensing-vs-refraction-prime-sea.html
http://eh2r.blogspot.com/2016/04/sea-ice-refraction-prime-rule-top-of_28.html
http://eh2r.blogspot.com/2016/04/sea-ice-refraction-prime-rule-top-of_28.html
http://eh2r.blogspot.com/2015/05/dedicated-sea-ice-model-proofing.html
http://eh2r.blogspot.com/2014/04/sea-ice-thermal-balance-appears-to-be.html
http://eh2r.blogspot.ca/2014/06/from-optical-based-hypothesis-to-reality.html
http://eh2r.blogspot.com/2014/06/hrpt-skin-temperature-muddle.html
http://eh2r.blogspot.com/2013/05/sea-ice-phase-change-from-underside.html
http://eh2r.blogspot.com/2013/04/data-gathered-from-optical-refraction.html
WD January 9, 2018
Thursday, January 4, 2018
Direct Causal link between ENSO index and Snow extent version 2017-2018
~ Winter Northern Hemisphere Cloud seed theory is : During El-Nino or especially trending El-Nino more snow, During La-Nina or especially trending La-Nina less snow
~ It is ecstatic to discover how small this planet is.
Proof you ask?
None better than show the facts:
We note this table from most expansive break down on current ENSO expose (must read here),
look at 2016 brief continuation of El-Nino especially during winter. Then a downturn to La-Nina from June onwards with a pause in trending during winter 2016-17, which had significant implications in many parts of the world, then back to trending La-Nina end of 2017. It means that the trending part is a or the most important aspect. ENSO reached LA-Nina during the summer of 2016 (when only there is a very small snow signal possible) , however spring 2017 had small upward warming, which meant more clouds, which in retrospect affected the entire spring summer season. And now perhaps the real La-Nina backlash from strong 2014-2016 El-Nino will really show up.
So basically if we use the said theory, there would be more snow in 2016-17 than 2017-18, lets look
~ It is ecstatic to discover how small this planet is.
Proof you ask?
None better than show the facts:
We note this table from most expansive break down on current ENSO expose (must read here),
look at 2016 brief continuation of El-Nino especially during winter. Then a downturn to La-Nina from June onwards with a pause in trending during winter 2016-17, which had significant implications in many parts of the world, then back to trending La-Nina end of 2017. It means that the trending part is a or the most important aspect. ENSO reached LA-Nina during the summer of 2016 (when only there is a very small snow signal possible) , however spring 2017 had small upward warming, which meant more clouds, which in retrospect affected the entire spring summer season. And now perhaps the real La-Nina backlash from strong 2014-2016 El-Nino will really show up.
So basically if we use the said theory, there would be more snow in 2016-17 than 2017-18, lets look
Beginning of winter 2016-17 in light green had indeed more snow on the ground, 2017-2018 less . I believe the same can be said with previous winters, except this graph (taken here) etchings are hard to distinguish. 2011-2012 appears to be lowest which makes sense. Note the breaking to less snow extent trend starting November 2017 mimicked identically with ONI cooling in table seen just above. Finally, late winter 2015-16 (I colored matched the outlying lone lowest snow extent in March) had very significant drop in extent , from very high to lowest, exactly when 14-16 El-Nino was ending and substantially trending La-Nina . WD January 4 2018.
|
Wednesday, January 3, 2018
Winter 2017-2018 smaller Arctic Polar Vortex Vortices make it warmer for most places except one colder area at once
~The smaller and colder the CTNP vortices the more unstable they become.
~Moving Southwards cold vortices are not a sign of cooling, quite the opposite, they are
symptoms of a warmer world.
~We now have a climate system which makes modest cyclones very important in rearranging
Global Circulations within a few days.
World News flash! it is only colder in about 2/3 of North America at present:
~Moving Southwards cold vortices are not a sign of cooling, quite the opposite, they are
symptoms of a warmer world.
~We now have a climate system which makes modest cyclones very important in rearranging
Global Circulations within a few days.
World News flash! it is only colder in about 2/3 of North America at present:
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