Massive De-coiling Canada Greenland sector continues

   The thickest densest sea ice left in the Arctic is unravelling at its faults lines.

18z CMC Sep 9 2016 surface chart has no significant meteorological reason for this.

     This is what less sea ice does when missing megatons of pressure does not push towards Greenland. The flow is almost always Eastwards,  but a tempered jammed Eastwards.  WD Sep 10, 2016

Dispersion of very melted broken up sea ice makes the 15% rule obsolete

     Russian sector of the North Pole had clearly a net expansion of extent,  but not because it was freezing,  much rather from the poor condition of extremely thinned breaking up sea ice.   All while there was melting.  So it is very difficult to judge either how fast the melting is unless dispersion is taken into account.    The other way to judge is by Goodbye Waves:

    Dispersing more rapidly Goodbye Waves are a sign of melting amongst winds and currents.   Judging melting correctly would be to factor in,  not exclude by an arbitrary rule,  every parcel of open water and sea ice as accurately as possible.   WD Sep 9,2016

Atlantic Front Franz Josef Lands melt/retreat Northwards, dispersion of broken apart sea ice will eventually thin further and give dramatic extent drop

  We see thinning of sea ice loose packs almost everywhere in the Arctic Ocean,  here North of Franz Josef Land Russia, is a retreat of sea ice Northwards.  This flow has no solid pack to recoil on and therefore is breaking apart.   Note Goodbye Waves to the South of the Front indicate great melting.  The new open water areas, numerous as they may be,  are highly likely not recorded by extent numbers 15% per grid regulation.

   Superimposed JAXA map September 5 (white black) September 7 (in colour).  The colour gains,  on the Leeward side (winds counterclockwise) of sea ice shores outnumber the black and white september 5 map by a far greater extent,  black being mixed with colour on the largely steady compacted windward side.  This masks the real melt numbers further.  Eventually,  further dispersion will show dramatic melt results. WD September 8,2016

De coiling sea ice , a sea ice momentum reprieve North of Greenland.

Some of the toughest thickest sea ice is also decompressing North of Greenland,  the pressure from
the usual sea ice momentum given by the Transpolar Stream Current is non-existent.  The response is a de coil action Northwards then an easier flow Eastwards.   This action is not noiseless,  luckily not many people live there,  there should be some thunder rumbling to be heard.  WD Sept 7, 2016

N.P. to Ostrov Komsomolets once ice bridge in taters, dispersing greatly as well as melting

   It was the strongest ice bridge in summer 2016, was from the Pole to Russia,  principally because there was a thinner snow layer which created the thickest ice possible given the warm winter just past.   Now its moving apart rapidly,  look at the central open water ridge moving fast Eastwards. Goodbye Waves a plenty can also be seen on the Leeward side on Sept 7 (left shore).   The Ostrov  Komsomolets ice bridge was huge apparently invincible:

   And now dispersing with the winds,  becoming larger in the process and distorting the melt view.  WD Sep7,2016

A lot of confusing action explains extent drop stall

   Apparent to all is the Transpolar Stream fill,  in a mere day,  affecting extent readings,
there is also false snow reflections particularly in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago, fallen floating snow appears as sea ice.

 There was no real fill of the Transpolar Stream,  just counterclockwise movement enabling by stress more shattering of larger ice pans,  in other words greater scattering affecting the 15% sea ice grid numbers to rise.  WDSep6,2016

Some effects of open water Transpolar Stream Current

It is not so obvious,  there is the Atlantic front,  where there is far less sea ice momentum pushing slowly to the North Atlantic:

  August 26 to September 4  East of Spitsbergen.    Appearing steady or moving North with a lot of melting.

  Fram Strait substantial extent gains with likely the most solid dense ice left unencumbered by TPS sea ice ,  hence the stretching out sea ice peninsula not with numerous Goodbye Waves,  but heading certainly to melt at a much slower rate than Atlantic Front sea ice.WD Sept5,2016

Transpolar Stream Current is now a free flowing sea river with broken sea ice all the way to the North Atlantic

~Another first in history

  The collapse of what solid ice barrier remained at the shores of the Atlantic effectively has made the Transpolar Stream an  open sea water river carrying sea ice directly to the Atlantic without the momentum of interconnected sea ice needed.  This means a more rapid dumping of sea ice to melt.
A first in recorded history event,  with ominous implications for the surviving sea ice.

     2012 september 4 (above) had a substantial solid pack even with small leads on the Russian side of the North Pole,  not at all like 2016 with a river of floating sea ice flowing all the way to the Atlantic.  WD September 4,2016

Wrangel bridge waves away: Goodbye!

    Once sea ice melts to Goodbye Waves (slush), it doesn't take very long before these waves vanish to darkness.  Here we have, very late in the season,  prodigious melting not stopping,  Goodbye waves are like the steam after water boils, prominent but fleeting,  from common white to dying artistically,  in 4 days a great deal of sea ice vanished,  and the steam keeps burgeoning. WD September 4,2016

Atlantic Front retreating, likely because no substantial replenishment

~  And Goodbye Waves Palooza everywhere signifying great melting

   If the  Trans Polar Stream has less ice,  it also means less momentum and continuity pushing sea ice towards the Atlantic,  this is what we are observing with JAXA August 27 through to 30 above.  Hence a retreat throughout the Atlantic Front and even if not seen with HRPT photos,  a lot of Goodbye Waves signifying  rapid melting.  It is a reverse flow mirage which has something to do in part with the broken off flow momentum pushing dense sea ice outwards and Cyclone Centre pushing winds Eastward.

   Its a mess on the other side of the pack,  with Goodbye Waves galore,  the ex-Wrangel Ice bridge is rather a modern Art collection of rapidly disappearing sea ice. WD August 31,2016

Wrangel Island ice bridge no more, its a messy combination of very thin broken sea ice and Goodbye Waves

       Goodbye Waves can give a problem with determining wether they are sea ice or as they really are slush:

Goodbye Waves along with very thin emaciated ready to melt sea ice near Wrangel Island August 30, the thin ice almost looks like goodbye waves but they are not quite alike.

August 27-28 ,  JAXA depiction is fairly good ,  but there is a mix between Goodbye Waves and sea ice, seen on 28 apparently having more sea ice,  although the two are from sea ice, they are definitely not alike,  the prominent gap breaking up the ice bridge in two is more prominent on NASA EOSDIS capture (above),  the bridge is no more,  what is left is going goodbye.

JAXA got the Gap almost the same with EOSDIS  on August 29

Goodbye Waves likely caused this confusion.  Look at the 2nd arm of the ice bridge reappearing on August 28.  

The ice bridge collapsed quicker by the cuts of many cyclones,  it was already impossible to walk on

it late July.  It now exists like glue holding 2 tons together.  WD August 30,2016

Cyclone centring by sea ice footprints? Another North Pole hole miss

   North Pole proximity had the visit of an important cyclone approximately 974 mb for about half a day.   Again a great deal of open water was created near or at its centre.  This prompts the idea of cross checking the real cyclone centre with sea ice imprints,  the same goes for very High pressures.

    The larger state of current sea ice deteriorates further late in the season as well.August 29, 2016 wd

Canadian Side usually ultra dense sea ice observed loose up to 89.5N

   The latest August 28 974 mb cyclone is very near the Pole,  and this time it should create quite a lot of open water there because the Canadian side of Pole sea ice is now likely the least dense observed in history.  WDAugust28,2016

Wrangel Island ice bridge methodically becoming no more.

~If it all melts,  2012 extent record will be seriously challenged or exceeded


    Within last 4 days,  the Wrangel Island ice bridge has lost about half of its extent,  at this rate it should be all gone within a week,  since the water surface to ice ratio increases every day:

Once the middle of Wrangel Island ice bridge to Pole becomes water, likely in a few days if not tomorrow, the melting will accelerate.   Comparing to 2012 is of interest:

     There are huge differences between the icescape of August 27, 2016 and same day 2012.  2012 had an ice bridge to Wrangel but disappeared earlier,  North of Laptev sea ice was only present above 80 N,  the Atlantic front was more to the North.  However 2016 has a deeper towards the North Pole sea water bite and has incredible CAB lower density sea ice areas :

   The over all up to date review suggests 2016 capable of surpassing 2012 in its own way.    Melt years are rarely alike,  even one following another.  What makes 2016 apart,  is that it happened significantly without a prolonged Arctic Dipole,  in other words, without a great deal of summer insolation (and its cooler in summer when cloudy,  even in the Arctic).  This was a prerequisite proving that warming Global Temperatures need not have favourable weather conditions to devastate the existence of Arctic Sea ice.  WD August 28,2016

Trans Polar Stream, first time so wet in history, is simply huge, it may cause a fluid mix accelerating flushing to the warm North Atlantic.

   A  gap in clouds drifted long enough to reveal a huge area of sea water mixed with loose sea ice just South of the North Pole (about 100 nautical miles),  NOAA HRPT.  Of interest is the zone between this opening and Fram Strait,  which has always been a fluid area of sea ice, usually slowed by traffic jams of ice coming from multiple directions.  However, even in winter, this is an area rife with movement.   It may not be strange that it looks more dense with sea ice,  it all bunches up there,  but it is not a static zone especially now:

   Fram Strait is rapidly bulging Southwards with sea ice,  this means that the Open Trans Polar Stream may reach the Strait,  with 0 to +7 C sea surface temperatures.  Notice Goodbye waves between Greenland and Spitsbergen Isles,  they expanded from August 23 to 25 as well,  a sure indication of rapid melting along with the arrival of new sea ice.  If the Trans Polar Stream open zone reaches Fram Strait,  it would mean a much more fluid flow of sea ice to the North Atlantic.

   Note the zone of open water within the Trans Polar Stream appears far more ominous on Satellite pictures,  this is due to AMSR2 15% minimum sea ice per grid rule.   However, any increase in fluidity North of Greenland or Spitsbergen would accelerate the flushing of the real last remnant of dense sea ice North of Greenland as the mixing mashed up zone of subduction would have no pressure from the Trans Polar Stream furnishing usually thick ridged sea ice,  this acceleration may have already started.. wd August 25, 2016

The Trans Polar Stream is becoming like a sea water river carrying loose sea ice to the Atlantic

   

Note the ice pans moving from left to right (August 18-25),  despite many strong cyclones giving different wind directions,  the Trans Polar Stream seems largely unaffected.  As time goes by,  the ice pans near the North Pole, 87.7N 107E,  become more and more surrounded by sea ice.  This is a very precarious moment,  the stream is almost loose like this all the way to the North Atlantic,  from 85 N to 82 N there is denser sea ice,  if this barrier or ice dam collapses,  nothing will stop a whole lot of ice of melting further,  unfortunately the forecasts call for strong winds over the denser sea ice barrier region.  WD August 25,2016

Huge sea ice area is on the Razors edge, between water and survival

                                 

There is a sea ice lake,  the size of  Lake Superior, 85N 135E,  the remnant of GAC3 again dispersing ice at Centre of this Cyclone.  The Wrangel Island ice bridge seems on the verge of total collapse.   The other, towards Laptev sea,  only has less than 1/3 of its pack apparently solid.  The Atlantic Front appears to be moving North.  There is significant extent numbers consisting of 80% or more of seawater,  which would count as 100% sea ice.

  The entire Eurasian sector of the Pole is very fluid by the presence of a lot of open water and has had a significantly changed icescape especially towards Bering Sea in 10 days.   More movement of sea ice is within denser sea ice areas in the North Atlantic sector:

  Daily Sea ice with open water movements are visible enough despite partial cloudiness,  some areas have modest displacements, some appear steady,  this water and ice displacements affects the look on the JAXA map above. WD August 25, 2016

Goodbye waves lack of geometric continuity, drastically different than melting Fram Strait sea ice

    Goodbye Waves,  not showing on JAXA at all, congrats to AMSR2 people having fantastic banzai uber precision,  have shown remarkable geometric contortions in Fram Strait,  all while not readily being identifiable from one day to the next.    Point your mouse cursor on small ice pans and note their lack of motion very unlike the Gwaves, fascinating.  WDAugust 23,2016

North Pole Sea ice: what we can see 2016 is bad, 2013 visually worse, but 2016 is it

     2013 summer was mystically confusing,  2016 more straightforward,  at first glance 2016 here appears lesser North Pole affected than 2013 on August 22.  But AMSR2; "The Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer 2" captured otherwise:

   Here we fall into the 15% sea ice minimum extent per grid delusion, which in effect even the best system does not capture the holistic picture, by set of standard rules. We must always combine all data sources possible to obtain the holistic construct to have a better understanding of reality. Unlike 2013, 2016 exceeded the 85% threshold for open water. 2013 had much more ice density despite North Pole area pack Ice being flooded with open water, perhaps if the grid was made smaller, 2013 would show up somewhat worse than historically presented. WD august 23,2016

    

Compaction vs scattering, sea ice movement favours some extent gains on the leeward side until spreading gets water to be prominent.

   August 20-21 JAXA sea ice extent map,  has a particular feature of interest.  Sea ice extent drop was largely diminished on 21 august,  despite larger sea water areas.  Note the rotation of the remainder ice pack. Notice stable sea ice shores on the wind compaction side,  but the leeward side is scattered and badly broken,  there is no ice to stop movement but sea water,  the ice spreads out and gains overall extent amidst water not exceeding 85% coverage per grid.  Test this out by placing your mouse cursor on the leeward and windward shore lines.  There are significant gains in extent with badly broken up sea ice vs compacted areas almost apparently not rotating counterclockwise.  Extent figures will eventually drop much further when the scattering isolates the loosened ice pans further for melting in warmer water.  WD August 21,2016

Towards the left, captures file.

~"to the right" of wind direction-   -+ sea ice dispersion is not easily captured.
~ here we have "to the left"  compaction by GAC2

   Despite clouds  large ice pans were moving to the centre of GAC2 2016.   Winds go from top to bottom of frame.  Located just NW of Banks Island Canada,   Sea ice is converging towards centre of the Cyclone.  WDAugust21,2016

2016 signature characteristic: Sea ice floes not moving very fast

   JAXA latest 44,840 km2 apparently daily drop of August 20,  did not come as a surprise, a new GAC seen here elegant and spinning a storm,  lets call it GAC2,  is relishing the temperature contrasts between open water and sea ice air.  This NOAA satellite capture,  4 hours apart from the first frame (1450-1856UTC),  shows an intense see-through cyclone,  see-through because it was  largely over sea ice while dragging extremely slowly a lot of loose floes readily available, you can notice the largest ones barely moving by placing your mouse cursor over them.  This has been a main feature of 2016 season,  the Gyre current has been stubbornly opposite to the winds often,  even very strong winds.  But there is a daily movement at variance with winds and other geophysical motion vectors nevertheless, largely captured on JAXA maps featured almost daily here.  Today,  North of Beaufort open water is getting more sea ice, not broken up the same way as with GAC1.   Therefore the extent rate slow down,  a signal from a weather circulation variation,  what comes next is another huge drop.WDAugust 21,2016

Challenge to #1 minima, Sea Water conquering by dividing, fraying sea ice at the edges

   There is a huge amount of scattered shattered sea ice,  nearly about 1/3 of the remaining pack has loose fluid  cover,  if it all goes to water,  minima would be a dead heat contest with 2012.   It is no longer a top 3 year,  but currently it is within top 2,  2016 is in virtually same extent tie to 2007 as I write.  The Wrangel Island panhandle is almost completely frayed,  and should all melt in the coming weeks.  The sea water lakes near the Pole can only expand further from a significantly new Cyclone to come.  Extent drops will soon be all time highest for days.  August 18 84,635 km2 loss is only second to 2015.    This brings the matter of autumnal cooling,  which no doubt will arrive delayed due to all the open water everywhere.  This greater area of sea water has profound implications to Arctic temperatures,  the making of winter itself should be later.  wd august 19,2016

2nd day GAC, North Pole situation looks more open than ever

~Sea ice rotation "to the right" of winds,  does not show up so well,  scattering seems more isobaric
~ Melt rates vary in steps associated with Low pressure movement.

CMC GAC yesterday august 16 at 18 UTC

CMC August 17 18 UTC surface analysis.  981 mb situated 82N 150E not moving Southwards anymore from this time ,  at 00 UTC the centre was 82N 155E, 983 mb.  This means that a new batch of sea ice was broken up further and or at different locations since yesterday.  Note the isobars,  and look at the rotation of the entire sea ice pack carefully:

JAXA   Map Clearly shows very little outward dispersions,  but very much sea ice movement following  Isobaric lines more closely.  The centre of the Cyclone stayed long enough at 86N to cause extensive water zone not readily filling up with scattered ice. You can even notice the isobaric lines etched in sea ice just South of the Pole towards Alaska and Bering Strait.   The new Low pressure centre has dragged a new batch of sea ice along the  Ostrov Komsomolets Eastern ice bridge shore to cover open water, this accounts for a reduction in  extent daily drop to 73,373 km2 (3rd greatest melt for aug 17 since 2002).  Note the great scattering of sea ice along Wrangel Island 'pan handle' Eastern shores,  surely will give great extent drops in the coming days.  The rotation of the entire pack also affects the Atlantic sea ice front,  bringing sea ice a top exposed open water.    Finally if the Trans Polar Stream has a chance to resume,  there will be a lot of open water at the North Pole come this minima. WD August 18,2016

1st GAC summer 2016 preliminary effects

~  Following scattering slow down,  today's extent drop is the largest in August 16 history (2002-2016)  109,341 km2.
~  Rotation of entire sea ice pack appears to be counterclockwise.
~  Low pressure centre still not at the Pole, most of yesterdays sea lakes vanished by strong winds.
~ Cyclone centre expanded near adjoining sea water areas.

       The Cyclone Centre was about 85N 180W Longitude all day,   it expanded the open water there quite dramatically,  and this is not finished expanding:

      Most August 15 great lakes creations by smaller Low were "closed"  by wind movement away from the centre of the new Cyclone.  However there is far larger opening at 85 N than the day prior.


     The Cyclone seems to have affected the entire remaining sea ice pack:

     The Pack From Fram Strait to Banks Island Canada seems rotating counter clockwise.

     The rotation was also captured by AMSR2:

               The counterclockwise rotation of the entire pack has doomed the Wrangel Island sea ice panhandle much quicker, warmer sea water is about to seriously invade the Laptev sea region as well.
   Wherever the cyclone centre will remain steady,  there will be wider open water,  ECMWF seems to place this cyclone away from North Pole towards East Siberian Sea.   So it seems the  Pole area was spared,  for now,  from even more greater open water as never seen before.  WD August17,2016