Arctic sea ice calamity, Arctic Ocean warm High

~If memory serves, not observed this consistent since 2007
~The only reason possible is warmer sea temperatures and thinner sea ice

CMC July 7 SST,  Artificial Intelligence doesn't like lake Baikal and East Siberian sea temperature readings.  But likely accurate. Warm sea surface temperatures
may contribute to a stable High on the Pacific side of the North Pole quadrant,  this I did see coming but only for a short time,  not as long as a week or 2.  It is a disaster for sea ice:

Given that the Atlantic front has collapsed, the flow of mainly pack sea ice will be dumped at a monstrous rate,  especially with the North Atlantic Low ideally located.    The CMC July 8 surface map also depicts something not common,
it is a cold surface High over sea ice,  but very warm High aloft.  It means an upper air heat source.  The origins of this more than one week old anticyclone are equally interesting..... 

.......    It simply appeared (U. of Wyoming),  on June 30 past.  Likely formed in part by the flow of North Russian Urals hot air pumped by a similar if not the same Low pressure vicinity Novaya Zemlya.

This warm aloft High seems quite stable.   A disaster for sea ice is in the making....  WD July 8 2020

Massive off Axel Heiberg and Ellesmere "Big Lead" event just occurred

~Unusual since it is not moon related
~A sudden apparently surface wind easily broke up a once consolidated multi-year sea ice with ease

 

The thickest strongest Sea ice is getting pulverized quickly,  mainly by consistent North of Greenland high pressure giving clockwise winds,  with other factors such as tides.   Reminiscent of 2016 action,  or March 1989,  but the latter was related to massive synergistic tidal forcing under very frozen sea icescape.  2020 June 26, 27 and 28 action was unequally caused by melted snow accelerating true ice surface melting.  This event appears highly regionalized,  suggesting a rather poor consolidated state of sea ice everywhere else.  WD June 28, 2020

Atlantic Front sea ice collapsing

~With top of sea ice snow curtain melted,  the status at the Atlantic Front is revealed
~It is broken up ,  ready to move anywhere, at the winds whim

    Deep past the Atlantic ice front between Spitzbergen and Franz Josef Islands lies a state of loose pack ice, ready for the clearing,  only if the winds team up with the sea current.  And so it is just a matter of synergistic coincidence as to whether a massive melt will show at end of September.  NASA EOSDIS June 20-23 2020 loop  depicts a rather unsteady flow, moving one way one day,  the opposite direction the next. Once a certain towards the South wind pattern hits this region for about 1 week,  the clearing will be done.  leaving sea ice even further towards the Pole more vulnerable. 
The survival of 2020 sea ice is rather precarious at this moment.  WD June 24,2020

Jupiter has Arctic sea ice "Goodbye Waves" , the red version

~Geophysics can be filled with symmetrical effects,  some having same or wildly differing causes
~Arctic Goodbye waves,  seen here: http://eh2r.blogspot.com/2016/09/wrangel-bridge-waves-away-goodbye.html  , are a terribly photogenic,  even artistic expressions from sea ice melting away. 
~But Jupiter is no Earth.  Or is there solids on top of its dense gaseous atmosphere?

    Thanks "New Horizons"  view here. Something on Jupiter looks familiar?  EH2r has dealt with this before:

  Although Jupiter is much more colourful,  the look is pretty much the same.  Here we can offer what is happening on top of Jupiter's dense (almost liquid?)  atmosphere.  "Goodbye Waves"  were once majestic sea ice just about vanished by melting,  leaving a trail of salts, biomass and fresh water not readily mixing with Arctic sea water,  but carried by sea currents giving the stylish twists and turns only found where there is an interface exposing the physics of two differing layers not readily intermixing.  2020 sea ice melt season will be great and perhaps will offer other planetary looks,  spectacular but too much of it is pretty bad from always pretty planet Earth.  WD June 15 2020

Assessing the impossible by other means; 2020 has a faster snow melting pace.

~A careful look at Northern Greenland and Ellesmere reveals the early melting pace
~2019-2020 was a winter with lots of snow
~Most of it gone where it should have been remaining,  that is if you look at surface temperatures and sea ice extent numbers.
~The mystery white mask of 2020 season is melting/sublimating away

   The first thing we remember about 2012 sea ice melt season,  was the cyclone over the Arctic Ocean on August 5.  But 2012 was also a year with a more normal snow cover as opposed to 2020.
The thing about Arctic snow over ice and land is that it is spread out quite evenly by the winds which may span in the same direction for hundreds of Kilometres. 2020 spread out was more important, by about a factor of 2 compared to 2012.   So you might think,  2012, the year with greatest sea ice melt on record should show more land than any other known year at an early melt season date,  say June 3:

NASA EOSDIS June 3 animation for years 2012 to 2020.  We see mainly  Ellesmere Island and a bit of Northeast Greenland,  the perineal coldest area of the Northern Hemisphere, doesn't quite matter which month you may chose.  Turns out 2012,  the year with less winter/spring snow precipitation, has more snow than 2020 on same June 3.   This is a very significant finding.  Less snow on ground means less fog or low clouds as well, 2012 shows that,  unlike cloudier 2020 still in progress of melting a once thicker snow carpet.  All the other June 3's from 2013 to 2019,  had over all significantly more snow coverage.

   The 2012 2020 comparison leaves no doubt about current faster snow melting, despite a cloudier 2020 late Spring.  WD June 5 2020

History of a recent Rogue vortice from a positioning to North Pole Polar Vortex

~Extraordinary latest geography of the shrinking Polar Vortex

 ~A North Polar centric Polar Vortex has one deleterious effect:  extra sunshine for vulnerable sea ice.

~Skinny elongated P.V.  are very vulnerable to become a Rogue vortice at extreme Southern limits. 

Keep in mind of extreme South light purple limits of the following:  (it mainly implies the position of the Polar jet stream)

With 3 rogue vortices  at once  from a shrinking Polar Vortex,  the biggest strongest one formed over Hudson Bay on May 5, becoming smaller the P.V. has no strong cold core capable of repulsing significant cyclones moving Northwards.  These cyclones warm the Vortex on its Eastern elongated sides  and pushes broken segments of it away from the cold center core.  Once isolated, cold vortices warm quickly,  rapidly reducing their lifespans.  Although the Hudson Bay Rogue vortice  may not have seemed to have warmed quickly enough on the ground,  having created some chilling snow flakes in extreme Eastern Southern Canada.  However the elongated nature of a vanishing Polar Vortex can create such freak weather events. 

What you just witnessed is the positioning of the core cold P.V. center towards the North Pole. What does this mean? In all practical terms a North Pole centric summer P.V. implies more sunshine hitting the thickest Northern Hemisphere sea ice in existence:

CMC May 12, 2020  1800 UTC surface analysis.  Note the Cold Temperature North Pole does not hover over a Cyclone or Anticyclone,  it usually is found in between these massive atmospheric pressure features,  the sun shines more in these huge area ,  smack over thickest sea ice.  This is not good for its survival.  Especially since the P.V. cold core is not about to move somewhere else fast:

Same area 6 hours later 500 mb level CMC analysis.  The pressure systems are very much vertically aligned with the jet stream around the light purple extreme Southern perimeter of the NOAA animation above.  A stable configuration settling the Cold Temperature North Pole over the North Pole.  WD May 12, 2020

2020 Annual spring projection, in more details.

~We must remember December 2019 boxing day all time in recorded history low temperature at center of Polar Vortex.   

~As a matter of prognosis,  the  recent overwhelming stable wider area of warming in 24 hour darkness had a side effect,  a smaller area of stable cooling.

~The center of Polar Vortex: the Cold Temperature North Pole will be at the N.P.

~Sun disk observations have shown remarkable early spring warming Northwestwards from center of Canadian Arctic Archipelago,  why is this strange and unusual? 

~2020 Vertical sun disk slight expansion numbers changes past 2 years all time low compressions numbering nil.

~ENSO variations closely resembles vertical sun disk expansion data

Et tu ENSO?

2020 Summer La Nina or El-Nino?   Is the big question.    The usual excellent NOAA updates and analysis suggest a neutral summer again.  There has been very peculiar no La-Nina rebound since very warm 2016 El-Nino.   What we know is that a La-Nina favors dryer air colder winter, as opposed to El-Nino creating more clouds (the cloud seeding theory) giving a cooler summer but warmer winter.   However, the evidence on ENSO variations from afar can be observed.  In the Arctic (and elsewhere) El-Ninos give much higher sliver clouds making spectacular twilights. Again, I observed both types this late winter,  none or few black or white wafer thin high altitude clouds, varying from week to week.  This indeed suggests a Neutral ENSO is coming.  But there is another way to indirectly observe ENSO trends:

NOAA ENSO variations (in colour ) vs Average Vertical sun expansion diameters, from 2002 to 2020.  If one spring year had more average sun disk expansions than others , like super warm El-Nino  2016,   its numbers of maximum sun disks would overwhelm all other years,  as it did (18).  Keep in mind that the NOAA meiv2 time series displays data throughout the years +months and sun disk expansions are measured in the very late winter - early spring.   If you use your mouse you will find that peak vertical sun disk numbers coincide with ENSO trending or being at El-Nino,  for instance 2011-12 trended towards El-Nino,  in all cases except for 2010 to 2011 La-Nina.   What this sun disk graph suggests is that we are trending El-Nino. 

Arctic Particulate de-pollution

   

  Contrary to popular belief,  our sun is white.  Next to Greenland, impossibly white  to look at with most of its disk under the Horizon.

April 2 2020 

   Note the brilliance of sun lines, not because the camera setting was overexposed.   Horizon colours are of interest, pinkish,  while more brownish in all past recent years.  

 


  April 2 2015,  same date but 6 minutes earlier than above.  The sun line looks not as colourful,  with a much darker background profile.    There was no Covid-19 Pandemic at the time,  the 2020 horizon appeared lighter, even if most aircraft and many industrial activities were beginning to grind to a halt.    






  2020 Spring sunsets did not occur frequently because NW passage sea ice was often with water skies and distant fog from open water, all caused by significantly thinner sea ice.  


2020 Vertical sun disk diameters,  what's the score?

     In 2016,  of 120 decimal levels , 19 had average vertical sun disks maximums,  making it #1 again,  2018 and 19 were at the bottom of the pack having nil maximas,  2020 has a marked 2020 mini resurgence,  with large vertical sun disks early on the season, not being completely diminished by subsequent measurements.  All was done with at least 500 observations (still on going,  will likely exceed 700) from decimal levels  -0.9 to 10.9 degrees astronomical elevations.  During the last 3 years the center of the Polar Vortex,  the coldest point in the Northern Hemisphere,  was most often very near the middle of  Canadian Arctic Archipelago (CAA).   A slight change has occurred lately.  Usually the start of the season vertical sun disks are measured larger, cold was not set yet, it is usually warmer Southwards as well,  the peak of cold is curiously offset about 1 month or so after the end of the long night.  A true Arctic saying: "it's colder when the sun returns"  has been confirmed again and again.  The scan in elevations gradually changes from South to Northwest,  at winters end, the sun scan is focused Southwards,  as the midnight sun approaches,  the scans veer in directions until 10 degrees sun elevation becomes at midnight local time,  straight North.  Curiously, the peak in disk compressions were usually measured in April and May,  because the sun disks go through Northern CAA air at very long distances ( observing very high in latitude atmosphere just coming out of darkness).    Unlike 2018 and 19,  2020 vertical diameters were not so much diluted as the sunsets veered Northwards.  So far, Northwards sun disks are expanding,  the meaning is simple,  it is warmer towards the Northwest.  Another method of depicting position of the PV center is to look more straight up to the Southwards sun,  2018-19 observations had remarkably compressed  sun disks in April and May towards high elevation sun disks,  above 10 degrees elevation,  to date 2020 demonstrates a warming,  less refraction,  towards the Southern and Northwestern sectors, not compressed like 18-19.   The Southern disk expansions describe a Polar Vortex shifting North,  the Northwestern expansions indicate the Vortex is smaller than 2018-19 or is further towards NE Greenland.  The regular weather maps have long indicated a much more Northwards positioning of the PV center as well.  Care must be considered especially when a cyclone crashes towards PV center,  the PV becomes elongated Southwards,  it usually does not mean,  as sun measurements suggest,  that the PV center has moved.  

Spring Ozone hole sun disk observations

               Extraordinary 2020 spring ozone hole,  even surpassing 1997.  Connected further down in altitude, the Polar Vortex between the troposphere and the stratosphere was in sync especially when the tropopause,  the often high altitude prominent thermal inversion zone between these 2 layers,  became absent.    2020 temperatures at center were in the -80's at about 200 mb heights.  Note,  2019 had faint beginnings of a likewise unified center of vortex on top of the CAA.  2018 had a greater secondary PV center over North Siberia,  winter 2017-18 had a dominant PV start on the center North Russian side of the Pole. 

     2020 ozone depletion reasons for  existing will be studied for years to come,  similarly to 1997's,  which was about 20 % weaker.  

      Sun disk wise,  looking at the higher in altitude sun  in March revealed massive unusual vertical disk compressions.  some .2 to .3 arc minute compressions above 15 degrees altitude,  basically picking up to potentially high impact from a super cold Stratosphere ,  up to 30% of the sun disk size refraction, roughly equal to the Earth's stratospheric pressure contribution.  This extraordinary compression rate dropped to normal,  to about .1 arc minute,  by mid April.  Which again means we were no longer under  a Ozone hole,  or the more unified Polar Vortex has moved or filled as well:

      The vanishing remnants of ozone hole 2020.   

                       Solar Refraction method GT predictions:

       Stemming from these numerous observations,  it is likely that Global Northern Hemisphere temperatures will be at #1.  The smaller hovering Polar Vortex displaced center,  offered a

better look at the truer leanings of Global temperatures,  being at center of the Cold Temperature North Pole in 2018 and 19 made predicting GT's  a factor or 2 more difficult.  It is likely that ease in predicting GT's   from 2004 to 2017  will be a thing of the past because of the persistent last stand of the coldest atmosphere of the northern planet  now often at the CAA .  

                                              Overall predictions

    MAIN EVENT  of summer will persist away from everyone,  the North Pole atmosphere will be the Cold Temperature North Pole,  partially maneuvered by a rare alignment of the stratospheric Polar Vortex.   At present Northwestwards  from central Canadian Arctic Archipelago sun disks are consistently expanding larger by huge factors,  as much as 1 to 2 arc minutes at sun elevations 1 to 4 degrees, even at very high altitudes by .1 to .2 arc minutes ,  this is very unusual  early High Arctic warming,  when there should be none or very little expansions.   The coming N. Pole CTNP does not guarantee a cyclone vertically in sync with it,  but rather more clear Pole weather and cyclones at mid summer CTNP perimeter.    We must not underestimate the reduction in world wide  particulate pollution,  although not guarantied to last given some countries desire kick start their economies, feeling free to be lax on pollutant controls since they have not reached their usual pollution levels at all for months.    But starting up economic systems may start after the sea ice melt season, in early autumn.  The extra bit of solstice solar forcing  power caused by cleaner Arctic Ocean air should break the long standing North Atlantic sea ice front, always a survivor of recent 15 years sea ice melts,  not counting standing record low extent 2012,  so it will be a 2012 type result without the same circulation reasons.  I would expect vast open water from N.P. towards Russia at coming minima,  the Pole having wider open water at a probable 70% chance.  The coming sea ice melt at Mid-September should be below 2012.   

     All the while,  ENSO should morph towards a mild El-Nino,  having for effect of reducing the number of Atlantic hurricanes in favor of the usual strong  number of Pacific Typhoons.  

    The other main event will be well to the South of the North Pole,   the apparent stagnation of weather system movements by mid July.  This means exactly wide regional heat waves over continents,   rudderless hurricanes  ,  along with long stretching  persistent same weather days.  The Further Northward position of CTNP will be expressed by this earlier stagnation , summer CTNP’s  circulation influence only go so far.  Last years brilliant dry summer for most in Eastern North America may be a tad wetter this year given a mild El-Nino.  Important energetic Arctic Cyclones,  similar to 2012 should hit NE Russia onwards to the Pole as well. 

            The North Atlantic High pressure by August end,   a creation from a cooler North Atlantic  made in part by a greater sea ice melt,  teaming up with naturally cooler Greenland ,would be by default the weather maker across both sides of “the pond” .   Not forgetting that what remains of the summer Polar Vortex , however faint,  from its vertical N. Pole alignment, will be slightly stronger than last few summer seasons, will basically cause lots of rain for Western Norway. 

wd April 24-25-26 2020

Annual spring-summer-autumn Northern Hemisphere weather projections , by the usual unorthodox methods .... A preview

~8 years since sea ice survived a 2012 summer calamity melt,  the tipping point may be a cleaner atmosphere.

~Sun disk measurement anomalies varied according to   economic slowdowns

~But right before ,  there was further change in circulation,  causing a different snow scape

~The extra sublimation caused by "wet” snow layer insulated the ground and sea ice away from the cooling it caused.

~There is a large question looming whether this noticeable tropospheric cooling  helped the stratospheric “ozone hole” just past. 

~The master of world wide circulation,  the tropospheric Polar Vortex,  has moved Northwards

~Sea ice teetering already at record thin thickness,  will collapse on the Atlantic front. 
~ENSO high cloud symptoms gave varying signals for the 3rd year in a row,  again no plunging towards deep La-Nina is foreseen.  

Here is the preview ,  prognostics and projections will follow on the next article shortly:

   ALFHA sketch ,  it has been discovered that "wet snow" mainly fallen October 2019 ,  remained in a wide area causing extra insulation,  which in turn gave a second  thermal surface,  unique,  likely by keeping the ground or sea ice warmer,  but giving more sublimation, causing by its very properties, more air cooling.  And so was noted a particularly cooler Arctic winter than recent years past.  The location of this different type of snowfall was given here,  largely estimated by the tracks of cyclones, some which gave "southern" in nature snow leaving a track from South of Baffin to the Pole.  This wet snow area will play a large role in breaking down the usual "Atlantic front" ice barrier,  it is very well known thick snow insulation gives thinner sea ice and necessarily more early ice leads.

Figure BETA,  April 20 onwards,  the Cold Temperature North Pole shifted Northwards compared to previous seasons,  as determined by sun disk measurements and other means.  This caused a greater warming of North America since March,  and more rain for Western Europe.   The jet stream in green is at higher latitudes.

GAMMA map,   early switchover is expected well formed about May 15,  late spring cyclone anticyclone positioning start their role reversal, the CTNP will be largely unique.  Early warming of the continents is expected, in part due to lesser pollution world wide, but the dominant reason is the high latitude of the Polar Vortex.

DELTA chart,   June July,  Siberian Highs will be drawn to the Yukon,  the CTNP center of the Vortex will hug the Pole,  therefore more clear weather there,  bad for sea ice,  however around especially multiyear ice along the Canadian archipelago coast,  cloudier cyclone driven weather,  global circulation slower movement for North Atlantic and Pacific cyclones,  reducing moisture
with super warming of the continents,  the North Pacific SST warming is not too strong by slower drifting Lows, because at July end, the Vortex should not be strong at all.

EPSILON August September projection,   likewise with the warming from less pollution be,  the reverse happens fostering cooling with the lower in altitude sun.  A High at the Pole should be prominent by September,  typhoon remnants  with North Pacific Cyclones should start their South to North journeys which will last the fall to winter.    A great stall in weather should be in dominance much to the South.   Namely for a great chunk of the West Coast of the US.  To the East Hurricanes will appear rudderless, at the mercy of Atlantic anticyclones.  The jet stream will show some faint life signs at the Pole as well.

ZETA GRAPH.    The stratospheric ozone hole of 2020 reinforced  the said surface cooling over the Arctic Ocean of March 2020, or is it vice versa?  Nevertheless,  the tropopause was hard to distinguish during much of March above Cornwallis Island Nunavut Canada,  Upper air profiles in the troposphere had often much stronger than usual adiabatic profiles,  while the average said profiles between 2008 and 19 were much more stable and warmer.  In here lies the contradiction,  what fueled the more unstable adiabats in 2020?  I suggest it was largely thinner  sea ice,  prevalent everywhere throughout the Arctic,  as presented on my previous article,  925 mb level Arctic temperatures were warmest ever.....  Temperatures of the 1 to 3 kilometer greater in height tropopause of  2020 was often -80 C, an ideal temperature for atmospheric ozone depletions.  This greater height of tropopause is reminiscent of 2011, which had many destructive tornadoes.  The dissipation of the stratospheric polar vortex very strong center  will not relinquish its winds overnight.  Therefore the strong possibility of 2011'sh tornadoes,  but likely further Northwards than usual.  WD April 21, 24 2020

2020 Lower Polar Vortex shrank by 8.5 million square kilometers compared to 2012 , 2020 has smallest area every year since

~The lower in altitude Polar Vortex area right above surface of Earth is warming fast
~ Even compared to 2016,  El-Nino driven warmest year in history
~It is unquestionably clear,  warming at the core of the vortex is from over all thinner sea ice

From Jim Hunt's website :

There is not much doubt about how thinner Arctic Sea ice has become.  It may be even less than estimated:

NOAA daily composites January 1 to March 19 2020,  925 mb temperature average.  2020 is clearly  the smallest vortex area by millions of square kilometers.    From this overview, there is not much guessing as to why this current winter is amongst the warmest in history.    Again note,  the smaller the vortex the colder its Cold Temperature North Poles can be. This is a distinct feature of our current climate.  What is particularly interesting is the 2012  Canadian Arctic Archipelago  crescent CTNP  zone being nearly identical to 2020,  a precursor to 2012  atmospheric pattern leading to all time lowest sea ice extent at end of summer. WD March 13, 2020