2023 spring summer fall major weather patterns projection by unorthodox means

~Unusual winter CTNP pattern has created a ripe sea ice-scape for a 2007 melt scenario.

~The North Pacific high sea temperature anomaly has been tamed, sort of,  mainly on North West American continent coast

~Stable temperatures will start early for most of the US and Canada

~While rains will be confined again to extreme NW Europe

Sea ice First Melt, a sign of 2016 like melting 

2 major factors have permeated vast swats of sea ice, one is a lesser snow cover, the other except for a brief period, was a milder High Arctic winter. It is complicated, less snow cover means thicker sea ice accretion, but this was largely tempered by the milder winter in total darkness.  This makes the cold sea ice core not susceptible to cause significant horizon refraction, but until warmer spring temperatures happened.    Therefore, we have a first year ice likely encouraging a more rapid melt, snow conduction cools the melting process a lot, bereft of strong snow albedo,  new year sea ice will vanish quicker.

    First sea ice bottom melt can be detected when the astronomical horizon height is equal to the sea ice horizon, it basically tells the melting rate for later in spring and summer.  

   Last 9 years comparison results includes 2023 next to 2016,  a great sea ice melt year.   There is great potential for the new sea ice to vanish quickly,  given future sunny conditions,   which is determined by additional means,  so it goes like this:

2018-2015-2022-2023-2016-2020-2019-2013-2017-2021

   2021 had a lot of snow on top of sea ice, it is a great factor in saving it from melting fast.    2023 had mainly new sea ice in the observation field, melt pond indicator should be weak given none abundant snow cover not only here but everywhere.  

Vertical sun disk diameters, what is the score?

Maximum decimal expanded vertical sun disks per year: 

  

2018 2019 2020 2003 2022 2002 2023 2004 2007 2008 2014 2011

  0           0           0           1            1            2              2             4            4            4           4          5

2017 2012 2021 2009 2010 2013 2005 2006 2015 2016

  5            6          6           8            8           8              9           10           13           19

      2023 was done with 550 sun disk measurements,  from 119 elevation decimal levels,  with observation period from late February to end of April.   2023 results are in the same modern era of the recent great Cold Temperature North Pole displacement, largely hovering to the Northwards, highly concentrated in the North Baffin to Ellesmere Island area of late.  The greatest cooling was determined by refraction measurements especially above 5 degrees altitude, which matches to where Green House gas induced cooling should exist, upwards from the mid layer of the atmosphere, this data is very compelling,  as the surface warms,  the near horizon sun disks expand along with sunsets shifting Northwards,  while the upper mid layer and above cools, compressed sun disks happen,  with literally multiple thousands disk measurements confirming this.   2016 was the last year when colder air was less centralized within the Polar Vortex, up to that year the High Arctic atmosphere cold air was more geographically spread out and homogenized.   Since after 2016 the Polar Vortex shrank in geography, became highly stable over the said smaller portion of the High Arctic.  Sun disk measurements have lost the ability to predict Global temperatures since that year as well.   But knowing this gives a better idea of how long the CTNP would subsist into spring.  2018 to 2020 had a very strong frozen area over the Canadian High Arctic. This withered a bit in 2021, only to continue in strength in 2022 and 2023.   Its best looking at sun disks between the years 2018-2023, 2023 had the second warmest CTNP at the coldest core of the Polar Vortex, a sign,  the stable extreme but smaller cold zone is warming year by year.   

Massive Sunset Field shift

       EH2r sunset monitoring had the largest field shift in sunset tardiness,  whereas the West,  the traditional tardiness quadrant,  became tame,  and the Northwest  had very late sunsets for the first time ever.  One at 92.54 Zenith angle and some 7 degrees Northwards compared to previous records going back to 2001,  there were others up to 3 degrees azimuth Northwards,  huge numbers,   in the past they were very predictable and tame compared to the Western field.  This basically  infers a very rapid warming of the ground and sea ice,  due to lack of  snow and no deeply entrenched in the ground or ice winter cooling during the long night.  

Fata Morgana of Cape Sheridan hill, never seen before in 37 years.  23 of which were intensely observed.   

        

     Part of April 7 sunset , 2.54 degrees below the horizon, 7.5  degrees to the Northwards from multiple past steady observations,  equivalent of 15 sun disks place one next to the other.   Both sun and sea ice horizon line were highly raised by strong  inversion,  this was never recorded or seen since 2001,  the ground surface appears darker,  with rock ridges mixed with patchy snow coverage.  

     This is particularly what Climate Change literally looks like,  the optical effects of Global Warming in a place far away from any industry or urban development,  as far away as you can imagine, this Arctic land is becoming and looking like a different world........   Map projections in the next article.  WD April 28, 2023

April 5 2023 sunset, rapid surface air cooling by sea ice and permafrost.

 ~It likely was a mix,  warmed up thinner sea ice with little snow cover rapidly cooled surface air,  but also on land (the appearing red flash), not having so much snow as well, warmed during a sunny day with light winds,  with permafrost boosted cooling of interface air at sunset.  

    Must invert the GIF's for proper perspective. It has been a strange sunset season,  mainly influenced by the least snow cover in many years.  Top permafrost was vulnerable for a great cooling,  however winter past was mainly warmer than usual,  with only a few weeks of deep freezing hovering about  -40 C.  As a result we have had no very rapid rebound cooling on the surfaces,   until air temperatures got warmer while permafrost and sea ice steady peak cold temperature layers became prominent compared to air temps,  exacerbating stronger thermal inversions....    In other words,  it is starting to be interesting late in the season,  while it was very dull earlier.   Notice the multi colour flashes, this was routine throughout  winter when the sun was up,  now we have to wait for temperature contrasts to form. WD  April 5 2023

Astro dating Ancient Egyptian RA coronation ceremonies, the guide.

 ~The research results leading up to this guide is kept for peer reviewing.

~The technique is simple and relies on the Great Pyramid establishing a standard precedent following centuries  of  a secret Pharaoh  accession to the throne practices, which continued thereafter construction completion until the fall of the Pyramid age.   

                There is still a modern day  Khoiak,  a Coptic holiday starting in December of our calendar.................  Long ago etymology likely derived from  Khufu Ahket,   the name of the Great Pyramid.  In the architecture of the this pyramid we can find at least 2 yearly solar calendar dates.   Being solar requires that these structures need be dedicated mostly Southwards.  

         The first incorporated date marker can still be in effect yearly in our modern times, it is in the Kings chamber, Southwards 45 degree shaft.  In meticulous stone work is once again Ancient Egyptian obsession with the angle of 45 degrees.  Many astronomers and Egyptologists,  probably most of them, even the fringe theorists,  have written this 45 degrees being related to Orion constellation belt stars, mainly circa 2570 BC.  But this obsession predates 2570 BC by several 100 years.   The autumnal sun transit angle at 45 degrees was prime,   occurring once a year,  signaling the start of the  growing season, matched in religion at the same day as Osiris rebirth.   Prominently written in the first the Palermo stone hieroglyphs, we find 1st dynasty Pharaoh estimated to be Djer or Djet having ascension to the throne Month 4 day 13,  this should be November 1 (Gregorian, our calendar),  considering the first day of the year is the heliacal rise of Sirius from 70 day absence, usually appearing on July 19.  In the Great Pyramid King chamber South shaft,  45 degrees angle, shone the sun initiating the start of Hb Sb festival.  It was so before this shaft was planned to be assembled, well before October 31 2370 BC,  the likely date of Khufu's ascension and the start of the Great Pyramid construction.    

   2 very important events,  Osiris rebirth and start of seeding period was perfectly set day by the sun itself.  It was officially meant to repeat itself every year and theoretically the sun should still shine in this shaft,  despite no more Nile floods.     

      The second incorporated Pyramid date was fixed in stone but represents the era of 4th Dynasty Pharaohs. Carved in this one slope is a solar and Sirius co-joined date,  November 20 2370 BC  , "Ka-her-Ka",   joining of the souls ceremony, a secret coronation ritual occurring when the transit of the Sun during the day is at the same level as the transit of Sirius during the night.   This was a unique day,  later related to the Queens Chamber South shaft angle of 39.6 degrees.   In 2340 BC this ceremony was very likely  held,  but this time in the Queens chamber,  the 30th year jubilee of Khufu.   This is how the Great Pyramid can be dated.  A method not only for pyramids,  but valid for all other Pharaohs following the Solar/Sirius  RA/Sopdet (Isis)  perfect calendar who hopefully left a structure aimed at the sun and Sirius,  a likewise engraving or strange writings with lines having angles a few degrees off from 40 degrees.   39.6 degrees set a precedent, it was unique for the Great Pyramid, the Cathedral of Ancient Egyptians who practiced the Solar religion ruled by RA.   Post 4th dynasty, you need to find the Great Pyramid shaft angle of 39.6 etched somewhere and another higher slope angle feature in order  to identify the cult practice. 

    The Great pyramids still offer complexities to be deciphered,  but simplicity itself was hidden in front of everyone for generations.   However, I am not sure if religious practices included dissemination knowledge about construction slopes to the contemporaneous populace, for certain this secret knowledge  was surely entrenched and relearned by the solar RA priesthood for as long as it survived.    The first of November was an important yearly event, the 45 degrees sun at noon,  did not guarantee perfection with respect to the start of the seeding season,   it was an angle with more religious and Pharaonic establishment connotations than with farming,  moreover the Orion star belt has a level of meaning several magnitudes lower than a tangible relivable perfectly synchronized sun calendar day. 

Recap:

     All known shafts except one seem to have a clear practical simple purpose.  The King Chamber South 45 degree shaft  can still be in use every year.   The Queens chamber South shaft was not meant to be permanent,  thus found sealed at both ends,  it was part of a secret "joining of the souls" ceremony of the Pharaohs mainly for the 4th dynasty.  especially dedicated for Khufu,  the renewed "Pharaoh 0", enshrined forever.   WD April 5 2023  

1     

An accurate historical timeline, vital for climate studies. New Archeoastronomy discoveries. Akhenaten Boundary Stelae linked with the Great Pyramid architecture might help perfect our Ancient Chronology,

 On this well leveled photo,   we see boundary stela B,  at tell el-Amarna, ancient Akhetaten , juxtaposed with the Great Pyramid. There is a perfect alignment by way of a single sun ray going down the great pyramid Queens chamber South shaft,  having the same angle as with the ray touching Akhenaten's crown symbol called the Uraeus.  

   
This seemingly impossible coincidence, between badly damaged Boundary Stela B single sun ray alignment is simply astounding. There was no software manipulation at all achieving this image, the Queen Chamber South shaft and Uraeus sun ray simply matched straight from the internet.

There is a very low probability for this alignment to ever happen by chance. However, there is an astronomical reason for this link. It was from an Ancient Egyptian coronation ritual practiced 1000 years apart. These coronations can help calculate a solid date, given that we have another sun angle for Akhenaten’s ascension day, tentatively crowned November 22 1313 BC. 39 years earlier than the official chronology.

Certain sun and Sirius positions in the sky inspired the very architecture of the Great Pyramid. It also provided by chance a general but much more focused construction period for the Great Pyramid as well.

The very altitude point in the sky when Sirius and the sun existed at the same level was the day when the RA coronations took place, this was the very reason for the South shaft angle found in the Great Pyramid Queens chamber. As Akhenatens Uraeus sun line strongly implies.

I’ve calculated, with the help and suggestions from a good friend, the construction start year for the Great Pyramid, 2370 BC, a year almost exactly in between the standard Chronology 2570 BC and the GP carbon dating multiple sample results of 4150 BP. The Great Pyramid was built in the age of Aries having a vernal equinox sunrise. This calculation is a very close approximation with a little margin of error.

To inspire further research, I have written two essays, one for each era, which need publication in an interested science journal. I can’t publish in a peer review journal at present because of resources not easily accessible in the Arctic. I am currently trying to find a partner co-author, it is a difficult almost impossible process given my isolation. Failing to find a journal willing to publish, these essays will be eventually read here, unfortunately not the greatest readership impact. Unable to have leveled higher resolution pictures, precludes acceptance to a journal. Because they can be made or exist and publishers like the best quality photos. High quality images also reduce the probability of error to a minimum. A small solace to ease the coming formidable doubts in the well established ancient chronology authority which will provide extremely stiff resistance, most likely ridicule, to stop any changes from happening at all.

Example of what an extensive warming period can do

The Pyramid civilization collapse has happened 200 years or so after the construction of the Great Pyramid. A lot of what was gained in technological advancements, much improved from or coming from the great man of science Imhotep, was lost.  A massive intermediate period of famine with enormous chaos and destruction was the cause.  Undocumented wars surely happened, enemies, without or within the climate affected countries always attacked their foes at their weakest moments.

The Great Pyramid was an awesome accomplishment. It also offers the best example in human history for showing the ravages from Global Warming as opposed to what can be accomplished when we do not waste resources on repairing climate driven disasters . Ancient Egypt went from eventually experimenting with pyramids having large stones, to accomplishing a few huge ones at Giza, seemingly perfect, then not long after,  totally forgetting the techniques achieving them.  The subsequent greatest structures were of mud brick,  carved on or inside hills  or with recycled stones from looting previous constructions.   

      The world today would be very different was it not for a small but significant climate warming periods devastating North Africa.   What will happen to us with the ongoing super big global warming might be quite similar, despite our vastly improved technologies in some domains.

Current Ancient Chronology vs Greenland ice cores

In general if there is a colder Arctic, moisture from the Atlantic Ocean tends to flow West to East at a more Southward latitude towards the equator, providing greater cloud cover and of course heavier precipitation to Southern Europe and North Africa. Absent the cold winter atmosphere, moisture rich Atlantic ocean air tends to travel to Northern Europe, leaving North Africa much dryer.

As a good example, at the moment, North Africa has some moisture driven by present colder winter

MIMIC-TPW  ver.2   March 13 to 17 2023,  Total Precipitable water,  we see the source of water for the Nile from the East,  and also in particular the cloud source for Northern Egypt,  from the West.  This is what a cold Arctic atmosphere does to North Africa.  

 Greenland ice core temperature reconstruction.

During ancient history, there were great droughts, one in particular , namely during the famous first intermediate period, according to present chronology it was 2183 to 2060 BC. Officially on this GISP2 graph, it was a cooling period.

Another one, here we see 2570 BC in the middle of a significant warming trend, not necessarily a drought driven period (I have not read about a drought during the first 3 Ancient Egyptian dynasties) but it was not a wet period. Gisp2 graph 2370 BC had a more stable temperature period, likely when a lot of resources were not spent on survival,  but rather on some construction projects. There are other examples of interest to pick at. But lacking a high precision chronology history, makes ice core analysis somewhat tenuous.

Ancient Chronology in yellow,  does not make any climate sense,  Prior to about 1000 BC,  devastating droughts of the 1st and 2nd intermediate periods occurred during prolonged cooling trends.  The archeo astronomically calculated  corrected timeline (in green),  shifting the Great Pyramids 200 years earlier,   appears far more apt.    Alexander the Great timeline is not modified, the chronology seems more precise going forward in time from that point, but what we see here is a pattern.  War or civil wars comes about a lot during the warming periods.  The said Zenith era of Ancient Egypt ,  from 18th Dynasty pharaoh Hatshepsut onwards was during a cooling period following a  2nd massive intermediate warming era which ended in  wars.    

In these warming days with extreme and well documented climate and weather disasters, it is imperative to understand the historical repercussions of a warming world more than ever. WD March 15-16 2023

Age of Great Pyramid.    Great Pyramid  .   Ancient Chronology correction  .  Ancient Chronology is wrong  . How old is the Great Pyramid?  .  Corrected Ancient chronology  .  Proving age of Great Pyramid  .  Queen Chamber  .  King Chamber .  Why are the shafts sealed?   Orion belt  .  Cosmic journey through shafts  .  Hieroglyph in Great Pyramid  .   Giza  .  Giza plateau .  Great Pyramid of Giza .  Sirius alignment .  Sirius theory .    Atlantis is Egypt  .   End of civilization .   Civilization collapse . Great famines .      Who built the Great Pyramid of Giza and why?  Pyramids of Giza . Great Pyramid of Giza  . Latest discovery Great Pyramid of Giza  .  Great Pyramid of Giza facts .  How long did it take to build great Pyramid of Giza  .  When was the Great Pyramid of Giza built?   Pyramids of Giza . 

Kennedy Channel the new super highway of broken sea ice, absent Nares Strait long existing circular frozen floe edge let alone a very important ecological ice bridge

~Nares Strait circular floe edge stemming from solid steady sea ice use to form earlier than November,  can't see it now during the coldest of winter

~A very ancient once, very important for wildlife and people,  steady ice bridge does not seem to form as well 

 December 1988 ,  the very noticeable circular floe edge between Northeast Ellesmere and Northwest 'Greenland in Nares Strait,  Kennedy Channel is Southwards the flow of sea water goes towards Kane Basin:

                    1988 December 8,          notice the ice bridge just here -------^^^^,  it was the traditional crossing  point for Inuit spanning centuries.  Who did cross the last time from memory in the 90's.  Was nice to have visitors from Qaanaaq Greenland cross over,  and even an adventurous Canadian from Ellesmere for a visit to Greenland.  A wildlife critical crossing point.  If it exists now a days....  its been so long since I have seen it,  I almost forgot it,  I doubt it does exist,  but if it forms,  it lasts a far shorter time span than prior to 25 years ago. 

  

 In 1850, famous in the Arctic Qitdlarssuaq ,  Qillajuaq,  the Inuk shaman  from North Baffin Island,    mainly the Pond Inlet area,  crossed the ice bridge,  not once but at least twice. with many followers, Canadian Inuit re-introduced the kayak along with other top notch Inuit  technologies to local Greenlandic Inuit.  The trek was legendary,  

    [same photo zoomed]   Back to the ring of circular floe edges,   it was essentially caused by the 

flow of sea water, broken by tides and current.  The ice surrounding it was similar to fast ice,  not moving,  and thick, a large ice shelf spanning from Ellesmere to Greenland,  totally blocking pack ice from the Arctic Basin to escape South. 

  Now look at this:

    Polarview January 17 to March 6 2023, at coldest winter minimum temperatures,  as if the circular ringed floe edge never existed.  

February 28 to March 4 2023,  sea ice is hemorrhaging Southwards,  the  once circular floe edge merely demonstrated how thick and consolidated sea ice was,   It's in transition towards extinction,  causing

reverberations throughout the Arctic. 

OK  further astounding proof:

              November 14 1988

November 07 1988

                                                               

July 22 1988 ,  Kane Basin fast ice bridge,.   Fast ice is frozen ice from open water attaching to land, from 1987-88 winter past,  surviving in July!

                July 17 1988,  no longer Nares Strait rings but an open floe edge surrounded by steady sea ice 

                                               July 11 1988,  Kane Basin fast ice ice is not pack ice yet.   

                                How much this world has changed!

 WD March 12-13 2023

Ultra precise long range temperature forecasts, Possible, likely only with 360 degree thermally balanced observation sites.

 ~The focus on improving Global Circulation  Models need be twinned with perfecting observation sites.  

 ~Near refraction observations have basically demonstrated wide variations in thermal profiles within 3 km radius from station center.  

~  These variations are caused by local,  natural  or not,  variable thermal topography easily causing wider surface  temperature variances,  making longer ranging  predictions almost impossible at unbalanced sites.

  Well known for failing often 6 to 10 day NOAA temperature forecast predictions,  no need to add longer range in a few months or so *Climate projections ,  they are worse.   It is likely not the models fault,  but rather the observation site measurements greatly prone for chaotic changes by very local effects.  

   Many years local near  refraction measurements never made much sense,  here in Southwestern Cornwallis Island Canada,  they rarely match optical refraction theory.  A demonstration can be made on request.  However finally,   after careful analysis ,  they match infrequently.   This is because Cornwallis Island Nunavut is surrounded by 4 different Straits,  having 4 different ice fields or depending on the season,  daily changing open water configurations.  The topography is also mixed,  from plateau 200 meter above sea level,  higher to where the observation site is,  46 meters ASL,  next to adjoining sea level  gravel beaches some 3 km away.  

    This means that locally funneled winds may carry greater influence by either of the said sea Straits ,  or these same winds may be curbed in mesoscale eddies,  not at all having identical thermal nature as direct winds coming from a larger circulation macro scale.    Therefore it turns out that optical near refraction data,  as explained by measured lapse rates,  or by any given day modeled temperature profile,  almost never match theory.  Or does so by an incredible,   about less than 10% of the time  (more precise data forthcoming).    In other words,  this observation Cornwallis site in question,  is very poor in representing the major temperature event of the moment.  

    I have no doubt,  thousands of observation sites used for models all over the world,  give identical results.  

    It is therefore not wise to use thermally imbalanced weather station sites,  for determining model accuracy,  but rather the focus should be on comparing model forecasts at sites which have no local thermal perturbations baked in their topography.  

    The best sites would be:  A buoy in the middle of the Atlantic, or a large lake, a station in the middle of a flat prairie without any major thermal altering sources,  something at a great distance away from a chaotic interfering geographical or fauna feature capable of changing the local  thermal weather pattern.  In the Arctic,  such sites are possible,  not common,  however there is always a lake, a river or a mountain about,  temperature variances may easily change a few hundred meters away.  

     Wherever possible,  identifying thermally balanced stations may help elucidate the real precision of weather models,  I expect them to be very good,  but trying to match temperature predictions with thermally unbalanced sites would be more ideal,  only after  determining the models precision capacity with observation locations as thermally balanced as possible.   I wont be surprised if the 6 to 10 day temperature forecasts are much more precise at such measuring points.  WD January 2,  2023

    

 

 

Ice on Mars equator, rather permafrost is everywhere on the red planet, Eh2r success story, bad news for another theory though.

 ~First suggested here 8 years ago,  permafrost was detectable without drilling on Mars.  

  On BBC recent report you can see meteorite crater confirm ice below ground:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mg95vY10WSo

of a news article already almost a year old:

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/27/science/mars-meteorites-impacts-seismic.html

  .....   only confirms what EH2r research has discovered years ago:

https://eh2r.blogspot.com/2018/12/mars-insight-landing-spot-suggests-not.html

and here some 8 years ago:

https://eh2r.blogspot.com/2015/04/how-to-find-underground-frozen-water-on_25.html 

   It is gratifying to realize that no digging was needed by humans,   Mars surface is unlivable,  but by just watching, observing, something we refraction researchers do all the time. 

        Refraction studies do overlap or very closely resemble space time studies.   Of which Dark Matter or Dark Energy,  has a huge observation problem,  we don't see any hint of this huge content of theoretical mass.  Of which gravitational lensing,  ably explained by Einstein equations,  was confirmed by a solar eclipse.  Dark matter and energy has no such equivalent.   Consider all the trillion stars covering our sky,  the very minute exact position they maintain,  never changing position in the slightest,  despite the observer,  ie any telescope on earth or in space,  constantly moving through space.   Many stars should be slightly moving ever so now and then,  given the massive presence of Dark Matter.  

      In light of this EH2r Mars successful permafrost observation confirmation,  and the power and dominance of -observing- in science,  I don't give much time for the Dark Matter and Energy theories not to be considered plausible in the very least.....WD November 13, 2022.  

Major shift in Sea Ocean Warming affecting everything

 

 ~Extreme warning of North Atlantic and Pacific part of,  or cause of ,  or part & cause of worldwide major climate shifts.

~  With some positive effects,  in part saving Arctic sea ice from utter decimation from the clouds they create.

~While negative consequences are documented in nearly daily extraordinary weather catastrophes

  I believe that this recent NOAA sst anomaly map explains it all.  A powerful La-Nina has had a hard time forming,  Arctic sea ice has had a hard time melting more as it should and the major pressure position patterns of global circulation,  all got flummoxed,  thrown out the comprehension window,  because we are now literally in a new climate age.  The one with near permanent warmer ocean regions.   As expected by EH2r projection, Arctic sea ice melt was greater than last year,  but nowhere near 2012 all time low extent minima.  As expected the AI weather outlooks came through,  nice for a change,  except for more rain in some regions,  this can be easily explained by warmer ocean sea surface temperatures,  not so easy to describe their location causations,  near permanent hot zones,  in the past usually with greater degree of variances:

  We remember variation of sea surface temperatures still during a recent warming time,  but in retrospect,  even in 2013 the emplacements of near permanent warming ocean regions were starting to be in place.  

     So now,  we must consider the new world weather order,  in the recent past, so much often eagerly denied by climate skeptics, surely presently not eating humble pie,  face saved by being in this age of many people choosing whom to believe,  rather than deciding or trying to find out what is really going on.  The images such as above,  need no rocket scientists to explain.  WD September 3,  2022

 

STABLE; why the Cold Temperature North Pole matters

 ~At any given day of the year the CTNP is the prime circulation mover

~Where all weather systems spins around it

~When it is weak,  hardly anything moves

~This highlights the importance of Arctic sea ice,  the world would be dramatically different without it.

Look carefully at GOES 16 IR system movements,  over Cuba and Gulf of Mexico the weather seems steady for a period of 2 days,  however over Hudson Bay the weather systems move a little more consistently Eastwards.  The further away from the CTNP the slower the circulation,   therefore this weather, as forecasted beginning of May here on EH2r,  has come through as expected.

   Of which June 26 center of coldest air in the world is :

In the SE quadrant of Russia side of the North Pole,  as far from Florida as it gets,  this center wobbles

like a top on top of the world.   Influencing a temperature differential of far lesser  importance than during winter,  30 Centigrade less important while during winter this surface temperature difference is in excess of 60 C.   The weather systems slow move during summers,  giving either greater droughts or floods wherever the systems stagnate.  Absent sea ice the situation will be very much more severe,  Therefore a New World Weather order is rising,  not on Earth in millions of years,  when nothing much will move during summer,  causing the most severe extreme weather most humans may not desire.  So far sea ice is on schedule to be even less prominent,  slowly ,  summer by every next summer,  with the known consequences experienced all over the world.   WD June 26 2021

Arctic Basin switchover time , about to happen very much on schedule

~Sea ice melt pond data is scarce,  but from long presence of Gyre Anticyclone it is assumed that there are many

~The effects of about to disappear circulation will be compounded by the effects of the coming one

CMC June 12 12 UTC surface prog:

 The sliding of the North Pole cyclone to the Arctic Basin Gyre location seems apt to be more permanent.  

The repositioning of the CTNP's poised to be at the Pole except for North Alaska,  which will get a North Pole Upper Air flow,  all indicate a near permanent Cold Temperature North Pole at the North Pole... 

Melt Ponds are a key factor determining the extent of melt damage done to sea ice early on the melt season.  They are hard to detect,  but this can be done indirectly:

   The black spots on on JAXA/ Bremen AMSR2 have likely melt ponds.  especially twinned with snow depth:

June 12 Climate Reanalyzer  snow depth seems to infer melt ponds pretty much along the coasts devoid of snow.   Although  radar PV photos are more nebulous:

June 10 North of Inuvik Beaufort sea nebulous cloud haze like image seem to indicate wide area of melt ponds.

     As far as sea ice is concerned,  the Low pressure over Arctic Ocean Gyre will shape the over all sea ice melt picture pretty much as I expect,  however slow sea ice extent seems to vanish is an illusion of sorts, the damage from the long presence of anticyclone allowing more sunshine was done,   any further massive storm will bring out near future fissures and exacerbate the melt process further especially late July.  WD June 12, 2022

Rogue Vortice special Real effects

 ~As the pressure switchover looms,   the Polar Vortex fades in grandeur

~But as such many Rogue Vortices are created

~One May 31 Rogue gave some special effects

A Typical GOES satellite Infra Red picture loop,  May 31  2022 look at the center cloud circulation,  towards the South East,  nothing much to look at.  Until you look at the surface prog,  turns out the clouds are turning the wrong way:

Red X marks the spot,  the surface isobaric flow opposes the movement of clouds.  But the culprit is a Rogue Vortice from the ever shrinking Polar Vortex:

This Vortice is breaking away from the amorphous mangled Polar Vortex really centered in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago (CAA) , this Labrador Vortice  at center is -10 C quite cold for this time of the year.   Again from a sign that the North CAA Cold Temperature North Pole is not done yet:

June 2 2022 700 mb -26 C over Cornwallis Island ,  quite cold CTNP,   The switch over is not in yet,  still on sched,  because its so cold there, for about mid June.  Note the -10 C Labrador Vortice gone,  because Rogues don't last long but their effects give lasting memories.  WD June 3 2022

EH2r Projection bang on, Arctic Basin Pressure switchover appears to be late

~Apparently not many are aware of this precision in predictions way in advance.

~But then again nobody uses the sun disk as a thermometer, hopefully in time this will change

~Eh2r predictions from multiple observations is looking really good,  in all aspects except for sea ice extent

~Nevertheless its exciting (for at least 30 followers)  when a deep Arctic circulation system is understood,  in essence Arctic temperatures dictate all weather movements Southwards 

18 UTC CMC surface prog May 6 (1025 mb High over Arctic Ocean Basin), 18 and 20, 2022,  look a likes.   to this projected May 1:

Eerily similar isn't it?      The main player is the giant C  in purple,  the Cold Temperature North Pole of the Polar Vortex.   Is cold,  but small,  but really cold:

  CMC 700 mb May 21 at 1200 UTC,  -30 C over Eureka,  Ellesmere Island Canada, wow that is cold but covering a small area.  However this fuels a stable surface High pressure over the Arctic basin,  but soon,  about mid June a dramatic pressure system switchover will occur,  a Low pressure will replace the Arctic Basin High pressure,  because,  Eureka will be very warm!  Last few years this projected switch came earlier.  The present steady circulation picture,  implies vaster areas of sea ice melt ponds,  spelling doom for it,  which seems to be fairing the usual bad,  but not a terrible melt pace yet,  again this will look much worse come late July,  worser than last few years.  Even if persistently cloudy,  and so goes the sea ice non recovery,  whereas climate is totally a key player.  The unstoppable Arctic warming continues even during LaNina period,  usually implying a cooling to take place,  but foiled again by Greenhouse gases.  WD May 21 2022

Very rare coincidence? EH2r projection in sync with most models.

 ~Sometimes AI gets it right

~EH2r projection just made in previous article really close to NOAA model even the Alaska bit

NOAA June July August  summer outlook,  amazingly in sync with EH2r summer 

projection,  in essence a wet SE USA and very hot Western USA,  along with little bit of Alaska.  

If there is no significant seasonal Arctic summer of old,  ie,  a much warmer Arctic,  there should be

very little circulation further South.  This implies the US desert weather to expand, also with practically Synoptic transport of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico, alleviation of super heating by reason of cloud cover.

   But not is all perfect with mega computers:

This AER May forecast misses the recent  CTNP ,  Cold Temperature North Pole hovering about the Canadian Arctic Archipelago and the one existing North of central Siberia,   nothing is perfect  for AI, almost  human,  but to contrast,  human intuition trumps millions of calculations per second,  almost every time.   WD May 2 2022

Annual spring summer autumn circulation and weather projections deduced by mainly unorthodox means

 ~Amazing unusual past winter observations, from beginning to end

~Wild variances in Arctic climate was the main feature

~LaNina so mild not important as much as ENSO  trending warm or cold

~Unfamiliar sudden changes in Arctic weather patterns are rapidly becoming the norm

  The objective of this exercise is to see how much I understand weather dynamics in relation to geophysical observations lasting throughout the High Arctic autumn,  the long night and spring.   If I understand what happened well, I might have a very good idea what will become later.  

Prognosis

    A rapid prognosis of past autumn and winter is essential,  strangely ENSO pattern appears regular since summer 2020:

January 2021 mild La-Nina bottomed  likewise January 2022,  summer 21 was trending El-Nino but reversed course suddenly.  While from its peak warmth ENSO trended La-Nina just as fast as previous warming.  During that time in the Arctic ,  something very unusual happened,  it was very warm and more cloudy .  October 2021 was extremely, so much so ,  sea ice extent freeze-up rebound 

stalled greatly. Like clockwork,  ENSO trended El'Nino similar to exact period in 2021, 

and eerily similar La-Nina trend struck,  however this times  La-Nina trend was in part responsible  for a very dramatic Arctic cooling,  because of cloud scarcity.  Keep in mind that winter 2021-22 was trending very warm, with super high tropopause heights,  along with adiabatic lapse rates similar to summer weather. When

the clouds cleared by mid March,  the tropopause dropped in altitude by 5 Km!  With more normal adiabatic lapse rates..   This sudden change in course of winter  a key feature, because sun disks were bigger in February than at end of April.  Reflecting the turn of events further, the Cold Temperature North Pole appeared strong for the first time of winter over the Canadian Arctic Archipelago, long did it last over Northern Siberia till February  Not only did this CCA coldest vortice in the Northern Hemisphere became steady but had more pronounced features than past several years,  from 2018 throughout 2020 the CTNP over the CAA was strong,  this year had the most prominent features.

With this in mind,  it may seem difficult to project ahead,  but it isn't,  mainly because refraction observations, not seen since 2016,  the strongest El-Nino year in history,  was surpassed in sun disk sizes until  La-Nina trending went full swing.  Not only that,  First Melt under the sea ice,  a feature detected by refraction means,  was strong and consistent from early April onwards,  equally similar to same time 2016,   suggesting very thin ice twinned with a lesser thinner snow cover. 

   In essence 2022 projection should be very similar to 2021, if forgetting the late winter colder atmosphere, the incredible warm start of winter from clouds, so many unusual cloudy days , which of course implies warmer weather.  This is known,; there is a smaller intense cooling at Spring start,  this cooling should trigger sea ice melting ponds,  because of the clear skies,  implying very few clouds, also means a dramatic upswing in sea ice surface snow melting from mid May onwards.  This late in winter super organized CTNP vortice is not going away quickly.  But,  will drag heat and moisture from the real weather maker rivaling ENSO, the North Pacific warm temperature blob,  this cloud and rain maker or booster is seriously changing the North American summer Arctic ,  which has been experiencing rain like in temperate zones. Even if  the coming Pacific extra clouds help shade sea ice from  strong sun rays,   rain can devastate sea ice almost just as much.  

Projections:

May 1 to about July 15   

Circulation pattern largely like 2021  except 3 CTNP zones, major one  will hover over the Canadian Arctic Archipelago (Big C in purple).   Arctic Ocean basin High  pressure will last longer this year, because it exists from extreme cold conditions,  even if the CTNP is small in extent,  the Arctic Ocean Gyre driving anticyclone  is in a good place to last, because of weather dynamics.  The coldest air will be over the CAA until snow cover melts,  then,  a surprise awaits,  the permafrost didn't have a lot of cooling over the long night,  this means that sea ice will be the greater heat sink.    The Basin High will generate melting ponds likewise to 2008.  

July 15   To August 15

The modest La-Nina just past may have only added to the warming of the North Pacific blob in warm temperatures,  likewise it will help maintain a steady supply of rain to the NW Canadian Alaskan coast, especially clouds for the Canadian Arctic.   What is left of the Polar jet stream (in green) will eventually vanish for a while,  even when remnants of the jet is about, further Southwards weather will be stable in nature,  sluggish in movement,  prone to very hot in duration heat waves,  and  rainy periods for SE USA.  Emphasis on heat waves making the headlines  rather than rain though.   The Arctic Basin pressure system switchover,  although late,  will have a Cyclone loving cold ice, in the wake of a gyre driving anticyclone.  This cyclone favors less dumping of sea ice towards the Atlantic, but sea ice damage was already done, flushed out to Atlantic by the Gyre anticyclone lasting much longer than usual, also it helped adding thousands of extra ice surface water puddles,  making sea ice very vulnerable even if this steady in place cyclone shields most sun rays.    Like 2021,  the CTNP will hover at the North Pole , while Siberia will bake strongly again.  Swift changing weather pattern of NW Europe , will also slow to  crawl  as was summer 2021.  Not as fast moving weather systems, may be detrimental depending on what it does,  like extensive rainy periods causing damage.

August 15 to September 25

The return of a bit of a Polar jet stream will come as the sun lowers to elevations not so warming,  the Cold Anticyclone will be nearer Greenland as to hug what sea ice remains.  Siberian Cold Temperature North Pole will faintly appear, along with North Greenland and Ellesmere Island cold temperature vortice.  Note the vortices help form the north Pole anticyclone.  while this North Pole High grows,  a North Atlantic High will extend Southwards,  making the East North American coast vulnerable to hurricanes.  Most of sea ice will appear to melt suddenly  later than usual,  and the rebound freeze up will be very sluggish.

Arctic Sea ice minima

Estimated sea ice extent at minima,  sort of a mix result similar to 2007 and 2016.  The areas away from the steady hovering  mid summer gyre cyclone will suffer great ice loss especially North of central Siberia and North of Beaufort sea.  Due to earlier puddles and hot air advection from continental heat waves. Unlike  2021 Minima,  I'd expect more melting close to 2012 record,  primarily because Arctic lands will warm faster this year especially on the Canadian side of the Pole. WD May 1, 2022.