-39.3 C 700 mb coldest temperature of winter to date, where?: White Lake Michigan USA

~The entire Arctic winter of 2018-19 was never colder at that altitude.
~Until next day in Siberian Russia
~North American continent is easily capable of creating such temperatures
~Provided less snow insulation covering ground frozen hard from extensive exposure at the peak of darker winter, from a just prior warmer or late coming winter,  a barer dark lit Great Plains ground is onto itself a byproduct of Antthropological Global Warming (AGW).

    The specific heat capacity of dry soil is less than snow or ice, it means soil can loose (or gain) its temperature quicker,  especially if continental snow coverage has been reduced:

                                                 
     ASCAT 02/28 2019 gives a good idea of where the snow lies,   it shines bright white here,  there are many locations with scant coverage namely the Prairies or the Great North American Plains:

  January 29 2019 winds over none existent forests areas (link)  coincided with the 700 mb flow hitting  the State of Michigan (link).  Consider also vast American deforested farmlands adding to different specific heat capacity characteristics of the landscape.  Note ,  same day entire  North American Arctic was warmer than Michigan at that level as well,  even for since the start of winter (from actual Upper Air measurements)!  This is a very compelling bit of evidence suggesting that vortices within the Arctic Polar Vortex,  may take quite independent temperatures then the rest of the APV.    I call one of these vortices simply as a vortice.  Usually a Southern NE American vortice becomes rogue because it is pushed Southwards by Quebec\Labrador massive cyclones ascending towards Baffin Bay,  which also warms a great chunk of the Polar Vortex concurrently,  cutting off the Southern vortice to be on its own, thus a rogue.  The idea suggesting the jet stream pushing down a rogue vortice has long been accepted as the reason why they are displaced,  but a vortice is usually part of the Polar Vortex where the jet stream is at its perimeter,  not within.

   As the world warms extreme weather increases because the Polar Vortex is shrunken and or stretched. 

         To make this evident,  consider thinner Arctic Ocean sea ice warming the Upper Air directly above.  Observing what happens to the Upper Air there is key.  What has and is happening is Arctic Polar Vortex stretched to from Maine towards Northern China, on the Axis aligned with Greenland to Vladivostok.  The core of the Vortex is hollowed over this Ocean once frozen with mainly 10 meters of sea ice, now reduced to 1.5 to 2 meters.   therefore the Polar Vortex of late is usually stretched and can split in two,  especially  during a warm winter similar to 2016.    The weather of the Northern Hemisphere is thus rapidly changing by the shrunken Polar Vortex which favors the winter warming of Alaska and Norway,  but cooling at times of Central Southern Russia  and Midwest North America during winter.  As an example I use the Polar Vortex event of January 29 2019:

                             White Lake         Fairbanks
                            Michigan  USA  Alaska USA
January 29              -19.7                     -11.5
January 30              -39.3                      -9.5
January 31              -28.3 C                  -16.5   700 mb temperatures.

      The North was and is very often warmer some 3000 Southwest miles away

    It is very possible to have such extreme events given the right circumstances.   However winters great deep freezes well South of the Arctic are furtive,  they may not be long lasting,  as White Lake's current +9C weather may attest, compared to Fairbanks current -13 C even still warmish.  As AGW increases,  the weather in many places in the Northern Hemisphere will get even more strange and extreme. WD February 3 2019












   

2019 Polar Vortex has always been in the Sub-Arctic

~Just stretched out a great deal spanning great  distances.
~The 'Meandering Jet Stream' is basically at its extreme periphery
~It is the Polar Vortex cold air/warm air boundary which causes the jet stream,   basically at its extreme periphery

This NOAA 600 mb temperature animation between January 24 to 28 defines the location of the Polar Vortex.  It is very stretched out,  and has vortices with very cold temperatures which form and disperse in a matter of days.  600 mb is the pressure altitude close to the average temperature of the entire troposphere.  

   Even NASA and Dr Jennifer Francis miss these basic features.....

From the Guardian (link here):

    This is not an accurate presentation.  as with NOAA animation above the Polar Vortex was already present South of the Arctic,  and  the "Chicago"  Polar vortice is at its extreme Southern end, was formed a few days ago (as one of many vortices found in the Polar Vortex)

"At the moment the vortex looks like two swirling blobs of cold air, one settled over North America, the other over Eurasia,” said Jennifer Francis, the senior scientist at the Woods Hole Research Center. “It splits up when there is sudden stratospheric warming.”

      The Polar Stratospheric Vortex has more than 10 times less pressure than the Tropospheric Polar Vortex,  its weighted temperature influence is thus  at least 10 times less important than temperatures in the lower Troposphere,  especially near the ground or sea surface.  The warmth over the Arctic Ocean as captured by the NOAA animation above closely depicts where the thinnest sea ice exists , or where the Arctic Ocean open water was  at yearly sea ice extent minima in September 2018.  The impact of thinner sea ice is obvious here.  I have checked the temperatures in the Stratosphere,  and they also reflect the heat from thinner sea ice escaping to space,  if there was a recent warming,  a 10 degree warming can only influence the troposphere below roughly more than 10 times less.    WD January 31 2019

Many weather presentations are off kilter, they miss the meaning of the non Arctic CTNP

~At present the Dakotas USA  -36 C 700 mb temperature is the coldest in North America
~Most weather medias present this latest "Polar Vortex"  event originating from the Arctic
~But the Arctic upper air is warmer than the Dakota CTNP (Cold Temperature North Pole),  how does this happen?

   CMC 700 mb temperatures 30/00 UTC,  these are actual balloon measurements, look at Dakota -36 C easily warmer colder than in the High Arctic.  Note 600 mb is close to the true level which represents the weighted temperature of the entire Troposphere. 

Not having any other charts available, University of Maine 500 mb pressure heights clearly depict potentially the coldest vortice within the Polar Vortex.  Clearly not in the Arctic. 

       The frequent misnomer used by weather medias naming and blaming  "Arctic Air"  is not quite always accurate, in this case the colder air vortice built itself well South of the Arctic,  which means,  a  thinner continental snow cover canopy twinned with clear air with low sun elevation at noon ,  along with longer dark nights than daylight can create colder than Arctic temperatures in the South of it.      A rapid Plains USA fluctuation in temperatures is soon to follow ,  with upcoming much warmer temperatures in a few days,  is merely a representation on how thinly spread out the cold air areas are,  or not really re-enforced by the Arctic,  but rather a fleeting happenstance generated by a steady in origin large Anticyclone.  WD January 30, 2019

Polar Vortex 2019, record cold weather in some parts of the Northern Hemisphere, an explanation

~The key in explaining is found in Global Warming
~And the clues abound all around
~Main bit of evidence starts from the ground.


   I leave the NY Times deal with the struggle to explain basic science dismantled by ignorant politicians.   But the Times  also have ably described the return of a particularly cold dreaded Polar Vortex,  which unbeknown to many Americans,  has visited Canada a couple of times already (some parts of Canada's neighborhood as  well).  In a truly normal winter,  say pre 1990's,  a cold wave would have hit Florida by now,  instead of slowing down its Southward advance at the 'wall' of a warmer USA.    The question still lies,  why so much colder?

University of Maine 2 m temperature basically displays  as cold surface air South of the Canadian Arctic as in the Arctic.  

Just how it gets so cold south of the Arctic is relatively easy to deduce considering 2 geophysical factors: snow or especially less or none,  cloud extent and especially few or none......

  Here is the biggest indice: December 2018 was warm,  very warm,  with the Cold Temperature North Pole in Northern Russia.  Warmer in winter can only mean less snow on the ground especially in the great continental interior lands.  

     The latest cutting edge refraction observations have revealed the main reason  why this  years vortex gathered strength even if not expansive:  less snow on the ground.  This has been observed optically,  all confirmed with thermistors.  The heat capacity of soil is less than air,  thus soil barely covered by snow during days with very low sun elevations twinned with lesser cloud extent, guaranties rapid cooling.   These two geophysical facts feedback on each other,      colder air implies less snow,  no winter clouds provides colder air.   These two create anticyclones,  long lasting high pressures during winter darkness create incredible cooling.

  This January 29 2019 CMC IR picture gives an idea of how much snow on ground there is,  not much throughout North America.

              There is less snow in North America than Eurasia,  it is to date,  a meek snow cover year. 

       Rogue vortices spin away from the Polar Vortex especially when the Vortex is stretched thin,  which is also what is happening.  The essential look of 2019 is a much warmer Alaska continuously warmed by the Pacific sst Blob cyclones,  which turned the jet stream strait towards Chicago,    only now we have a gathering of much colder air which took a month or so to gain extent and to permeate heavily populated areas.   WD January 28 2019

  

Mars Inversion moisture trap, insulation power keeping water from escaping to space

~ESA great capture of trapped in a crater ice infers a lot of water on Mars
~The trap is a cooled atmospheric interface,   much similar to what sea ice does
~No sea ice,  none or far weaker inversions,  less sea ice possible as a result

ESA composite picture of a Mars North Pole crater called Korolev,  has amazingly similar sea ice features on Earth, likely there is snow as well.  But the greatest feature,  the reason why there is frozen water  in the North Polar Martian region,  is exactly the same as the over abundance of ice near Earth Poles:  inversions.   Remove the inversion,  and massive sublimation occurs,  because there is an inversion,  the moisture in air is trapped within a shallow layer,  reducing the possibility of sublimation especially if the atmosphere is near 100% saturated with water vapor.    Korolev crater gives the impression that there is a great deal of water in Martian underground.   But this moisture has very little chance of staying within an atmosphere 95% CO2.   We can see here something equally similar to the disappearance of glaciers on Earths polar regions:

We can see here evidence of recently evaporated/sublimated smaller snow glaciers by the lighter soil colors,   Mars soil is mainly oxidized red,  suggesting rust,  small glaciers remove contact with the atmosphere, after time they likely strip the top rust by small calving process,  but once the small glacier evaporates/sublimates,  it leaves behind its imprint.  Arctic rock strewn lands having small glaciers exhibit exactly the same feature,  except Arctic small glaciers are disappearing very rapidly,  they leave behind a lighter rock surface color for much shorter time periods ,  unlike Mars .13% oxygen content,  Earth's atmosphere is rich in  Oxygen.    Further evidence of snow on top of ice can be seen here:

        Snow or ice crystal drifts can be seen in this ESA's Mars Express topographic image.
Within the thin inversion ice crystals likely fall back to the surface and sublimate upwards in an endless process similarly within a closed climatic system,  over a long period of time falling ice crystals may gather high insulating the ice further.   WD December 25, 2018

Mars InSight landing spot photos suggest not so deep permafrost

~Atmospheric refraction of a CO2 atmosphere is probably visible,  more dedicated photos are required though.
~First photographic hints at very slight horizon refraction
~Given the thinness of the atmosphere, much of this of course was expected,  but further very serious photography should be undertaken.

    Mars has a 6 mb atmosphere,  169 times less weighty than on Earth.  Not many refraction specialists believe it capable of causing some atmospheric mirages,  but near the horizon,  the game changes, at that level,  we look at a much thicker atmosphere.  Consider what we always knew,  Mars landscape looked carved by water ever since a closer telescopic look at the planet was achieved.   Now that we have access to a probe capable of staying still,  by refraction optics we can see if there is any ice permafrost,  which can give a spectacular effect similar to sea ice horizons on Earth.

     Ice and Martian soil should have different specific heat capacity,  ice has most certainly  a greater heat capacity, which means that it affects the soil right over it,  in particular,   when the cloudless sunny sky  hits a pure rocky outcrop,  the air right above warms up rapidly,  this may cause a "road mirage"  like on Earth,  however subtle likely so on Mars, but none heard of so far.   Examples here show no rapid lowering,  a sure sign of a permeating factor.  Here we study the Martian horizon,  by NASA design from a probe not moving around all over the place:

NASA InSight December 5 and 7 2018 .  15:27  and at 11:34 local mean solar time respectively,  the 5th has greater shadow to the right.  The robotic arm has likely moved around, and is placed back not always exactly  in this same resting spot.   The pictures are aligned,  with your mouse pointer, verify carefully the positions of nearest rocks,  now look at the horizon.  Point your mouse at any point on the horizon line,  you will see the darker image having a very slightly higher horizon throughout.  The darker image is nearest local noon, with warmest sun effects,  was likely taken with an optical filter.  If there is near surface permafrost the horizon should eventually lower,  in this case the horizon lowered perhaps further and is now rising towards the near noon height, meaning the ground horizon has sea ice properties,  namely frozen water....

  Experience on Earth dictates:  top of sea ice warms enough to lower the horizon after local apparent noon, given no great weather change,   this usually happens a few hours after noon.  The brighter image here is at 3:27 PM usually at about the same time when the sea ice horizon reaches lower point on Polar Earth.

     CO2 Martian atmosphere may cause different refraction effects,  namely 95% CO2 concentration surely gives a great  warming potential,  so the surface should warm really rapidly when the sun rises, again a dry rocky substratum horizon should lower at local apparent noon,  not take a few hours as on Earth.  Which as we know,   on any given sunny day without much great weather circulation,  noon is not the warmest time of day.

   A rudimentary model using refraction index of CO2 gas,  incidentally greater than air at standard pressures and temperatures,  calculates a very small shrinking of the vertical sun disk equally at  the horizon.  However,  the interplay between Martian soil, permafrost and CO2 atmosphere is novel,  more studying is needed.  WD December 9 2018

North American West Coast healthy rainy seasons need normal sea ice extent

~ Long ignored sea ice climate permutations manifest big time

~ We look at mainly the North Pacific

~ Current El-Nino can only exacerbate bent Northwards general circulation 

   Although its pleasant climate has apparently nothing to do with ice and snow, there is a rainy season in sunny L.A.  California,  having everything to do with a colder climate to the North.   Through long time late autumn  cycles,  the North got significantly cold mainly because Siberia and Alaska was imbued in longer dark days creating a net lost heat to space.    But sea ice cover within Arctic Ocean  and very North Pacific is an equivalent to land,  also greatly cooled the North,  absent sea ice ,  replaced by warmed sea water,  winter's cold punch  has dulled,  especially since 2007,  but very much seriously lately:

NOAA November 12 2018 sst anomalies  Further North, they call it the blob,  the great North Pacific surface warming has a lot to do with the lack of cooling during winter,  because there is a feedback loop between less sea ice extent and more low clouds.  Even less radiation leaving to space favors the presence of huge Cyclones :  

The implied late autumn black line should be the location of the polar jet stream given the latest sea ice extent losses.  Fortunately often present massive North Pacific cyclones bend the jet to its South (red line),  but this means the North Pacific is covered with clouds for vaster periods,  not cooling the sea surface to space.  This also implies a shift in rainy season of the West North American coast,  well Northwards,  this current climate scene was not always so  :

  Given a normal sea ice scenario,  pre 1998,  a shift in the Polar jet stream well to the South of its latest decadal tendencies  gave the recorded fall and winter  coastal rainy seasons climate which was importantly wetter than latest recent years.   WD November 15 2018

Major Polar Vortex rearrangement

~Siberia gets back it's freezing mojo
~Canadian Arctic Upper Air is remarkably warm
~A confluence of wider Arctic Ocean open water and thinner North of Greenland sea ice killed the great Canadian  Arctic Archipelago super cold vortex of 2018 about 10 days ago
~Asymmetric in size Arctic Polar vortex consequences for winter 18-19

09 0000 UTC CMC 700 mb chart with colour ( by me),  blue zone -20 to -25 C,  pink -25 to -30,  red below -30 C.    Demonstrates a great disparity in coldest  temperatures between North America and Eurasia,  Siberia regained its famed coldest weather in the Northern world.   While the North American side will undoubtedly be varnished with a much warmer winter with strange Polar Vortex rogue vortices causing sudden extreme weather events.    Such example is happening now,  a midwest North American vortice  formed colder than anything currently  in the Arctic,  it is not a cold from the Arctic blast,  it is a very exotic,  I would say interesting,  rogue vortice which will cause havoc over a much larger Anerica basking in above average weather.    On the other continent,  if this is the coming winter Polar Vortex arrangement,   UK, Scandinavia and Moscow will be wet like London of old.  While Japan and Alaska will benefit with much warmer and yes wet weather. 

   As far as sea ice is concerned,  it was to blame for this climate rearrangement.  In near total darkness CAA never really got a chance to go deep cold,  because there was no Arctic Basin deep long night enhanced cooling, stopped by unprecedented open water North of Greenland,  which became thinner,  but still  releasing more heat ,  contributing in tandem with a once near 1 million km2 square wider open water  heat release bonanza ultimately decimating the great North American Vortex of 2018 ,  it nearly lasted a year.    The current  pumping of Pacific blob sea surface heat is reaching to near Greenland,  greatly impeding a strong Canadian vortex to form.    This new climate scene will cause a different ice accretion geographic distribution,  already drastically warming Bering sea area, no accretion ,  and cooling further  the North Pole (needed accretion),    the latter has sea ice already in place,  the former has open water not to freeze so fast....WD November 9 2018

2018 sea ice refreeze is identical to melting to minima in reverse slow motion

~Today's 2018 JAXA extent is #1 lowest within historical record

~Since minima refreeze pattern almost exact melting in reverse

~There is no doubt that fresh less dense surface melt water is necessary for more rapid refreeze

 JAXA 13 to 19 October extent map closely resembles the melt process flipped backwards,  Fram Strait is overwhelmed with easy flowing sea ice from the trans polar current reformed and re-ignited  along with the  Central Arctic Basin  gyre.    Even with Fram surface waters really warm the ice cover gets renewed daily,  in short a more normal ice dumping scene with much warmer water:

Elsewhere  October 21 CMC SST's are still quite warm,  it takes -1.8 C water for sea water to freeze.  Despite greater darkness 0 C waters North of East Siberian sea is astounding,  the Atlantic front ice border remains stable and Bering Chukchi seas super warmed waters guaranty a further slower refreeze,  which makes this map interesting:

   A JAXA back to the future moment,  but we are currently 29 days away from minima,  as opposed
to this 19 days remove sep 3 JAXA eerily similar map to today absent Fram Strait.  The CAB is not refreezing well largely because of great cloud coverage and very warm sst's,  which gives a surface temperature feedback loop of warming.  These two factors made 2018 overall #1 lowest extent especially along with very thinned central CAB sea ice, made perfectly obvious by the presence of nearly permanent Arctic Ocean overcast with clouds and the lack of an anticyclone over the North Pole,  which always happened in the past at the start of the long Arctic night.  The biggest news is for larger populations further South,  an abnormal winter awaits them. 

CMC October 24,  sign of compaction in North Pole to Greenland sector, with finally a High pressure,  an extension first  originating from the Canadian Archipelago South.  A very unusual,  unique,  very loose pack North Greenland sea ice was present throughout end of melting season.  Now we can attest,  this anomaly has largely frozen over.   A North Pole High following Minima usually means the start of winter,   about 3 weeks late. 

WD October 21,  last GIF October 24, 2018

Fram Strait sea ice melting Van Gogh style

~Long without action Fram strait appears to melt incoming sea ice rapidly
direct contact with +2 C water ,  cooled a bit from a summer of continuous warming.

Sea water right into the melt zone by any standards extremely warm,  therefore giving images like this: 

We have a look at apparently rapid melting,  at least for this time of the year,  with equally fast Southwards flowing sea ice as seen October 4 ,  the goodbye waves here are definitely artistic and
different than slow melting type as reported with previous article.  Warm surface sea water +2 C awaits any arrivals.  wd October 9, 2018

Slow melting Goodbye Waves examples

~ 78 N 176 W very slow melting made obvious by individual Goodbye Waves readily identifiable day by day.

~   The waves in this case seem to stream over fresh melted less saline colder sea water.

    This JAXA portion of melt area is very interesting,   JAXA October 4 and 5 has more sea ice than NASA captures,  that is not new,  but here we see the likelihood that Goodbye Waves are melting over less saline recently melted  sea water,  not really warmed by significant sunlight.

   There is melting,  but not so fast , October 1 to 5 NASA EOSDIS,  we look especially at left waves
breaking down slowly.  We also see a day by day variation in the main pack compacting a little but really moving,   still individual waves are recognizable,  a large contrast to not so long ago melting when the waves disappeared or were impossible to identify from one day to next.   WDOctober 5 2018

Powerful Arctic Ocean heat feeds the dipole engine

~The great minimum stall of 2018 highlights

Not seeming warm +3 C sst near New Siberian Islands has some localized impact .  Remember local average temperatures for the 2 guys living on Kotelny (the largest) Island is -11 C in October. No doubt the once much warmed East Siberian sea is still giving off some heat.  

   We look at New Siberian Island Novaya Sibir to the upper right on September 27 covered with snow,  nothing unusual,  however lost most of its new snow on October 2.   To the left is pack ice moving towards this Island:

   October 2's,  2007 to 2018 , since 2007 Novaya Sibir Island was always covered with snow onwards....

   Oct 4 2007,  a clearer view,  to date,  Oct 4 2018 same Island is snowless.  

            Meanwhile since Minimum date,  North Atlantic Front is nearing 85 North.  JAXA September 23 October 3 2018.   

Open water towards 85 North at October's gate

    The Atlantic front East of Spitsbergen is also advancing Northwards.  It is probably the slowest overall refreeze since 2012.  There is likely some freezing  but also a great daily variance in extent due to floating snow and possibly some melting,  needing to be identified in specific areas.  But here ,  the Eat Siberian bite seems unstopped in its ever slow advance,  JAXA 15 to 29 September 2018 ,  the 15th being the messiest at the top left corner.

September 26 to October 1, amazing NASA captured  melting at edge of Equinox North Pole darkness on what is the continuing advance of water towards the North from the East Siberian Sea quadrant,  with strong evidence of melting:

These Goodbye Waves,  the last phase of sea ice to water,  changed in structure day by day  September 29-30 and October 1,  it was also certainly a mix of fusion physics requiring presence of a ship confirming and observing this directly.

WD September 30, October 1  2018

Thinner sea ice always with pervasive low clouds slowed the yearly melting rate in summer, but reduced accretion and extent in winter

~Only much sunnier Arctic Ocean summers can cause greater melts...
~There was more solar forcing prior to 2013

~                                                 Thicker sea ice = less summer clouds
~                                                   Thinner sea ice = more summer clouds

~ However,  over all year by year thinning of Arctic sea ice continues,  because clouds from same thinner sea ice slow dark season accretion and extent growth considerably. 

The evidence:

          DMI80 average temperature is an excellent source of data,  despite being a temperature model of models.   In the case of sea ice, it would be better if the data was presented strictly for sea areas not a mix of land and sea.  DMI 83.5 North upwards would be nice to have.  Nevertheless,  temperature over sea ice during summer barely goes above +2 C,  averages about + 0.75 C .  This is explainable by the equation of winter:

                                                                      T***<= Ts

         Temperature of top of snow/ice is alway colder or equal to Ts,  surface air at about 2 meters above.  The only thing warming top of sea ice is the sun or warmer air,  both may be considered from the same source.   With enough exposure, the sun melts sea ice snow top,  water on ice then may never be so warm,  therefore the just above 0 bit.   Hence DMI practically always is a measure of top of sea ice temperature,  with a partial land contribution,  some from open water,  therefore the at times +2 C daily average maximum.

          IN spring and summer, if it is sunny enough,   temperatures may be sufficient to crack open thinner sea ice giving leads to also contribute to warming.   But it has to be sunny.  In the not so distant past, surface temperatures indicated it was sunnier:

We observe 1980 to 1990 summer seasons always equal or exceeding the average trend in green.
It is not indicating open water at the Pole but rather,  indirectly giving out the presence of the sun,
largely favored when overall sea ice was thicker.

 The "average "  daily summer temperatures continued till year 2000. Note the often above average temps,

      From 2007  onwards the daily averages tended to be below except for 2007-2008,  2011-2012 and 2015-2016.   None having substantial  number of days above the green line,

   Of all summers which mattered 2009 and 2013 stand out.   Following the great melt of 2007 one would expect thinner sea ice to cool summer surface temperatures in 2008,  but that did not happen,
because there was a cloud thinning La-Nina in 08,  however 2009 had a drop in temperatures.  The best example is 2013,  immediately following the greatest melt of 2012,   summer 2013 thinner sea ice did establish itself for a vast area of the Arctic Ocean:

DMI summer 2013 cool temperature profile...

    Thinner sea ice is very conducive for clouds,  and clouds very "welcoming" for cyclones.  Despite
more than 11 million km2 sea ice melt of 2012,  2013 thinner sea ice increased cloud albedo,  effectively cooling the summer for most of the Arctic.



Case for thinner sea ice,  extent maximums

   JAXA extent maximum data 2003 to 2018,    there are 2 increase peaks from mainly descending sea ice maximum values,  the 2007 to 2008 and 2011 to 2012 peaks,  it should not come as a surprise that 2007 and 2012 had major sea ice losses during their respective following summers, the winters preceding were characterized as having less clouds,  more accretion by  dark starry nights continued by bright sunny days. But note the great extent maximum increases in 2007-2018  and 2012.  The steady lower maximum peaks since 2015 are equally attributable to the contrary,  warm cloudy dark seasons indirectly interpreted from DMI graphs above,  persisted during each following summer.   Here is ample evidence that the lesser winter extent gains exceeded the summer melt losses.


Thinner sea ice causes pervasive cloudiness giving an apparent melt plateau

      TOTAL melt numbers again reflect extensive cloudiness,   2007 (first high peak) was spectacularly exceeded in 2012 with nearly 12,000 million km2 extent loss,   translation:  2007-08 and 12 sea ice had  greater solar forcing summers,  2010 and 16 had smaller ones,  but  much opposite 2009-11-13-14-15-16-17 and 18 more or less have had increasing melting at a much slower rate,  these years were characterized by their extensively cloudy weather all while sea ice thinned during equally cloudy from one year to the next winters.   When summer sunshine got through longer, the melts became progressively greater,  2007 had thicker sea ice than 12,  but when this same sun got through in 12,  the melt was greater from a thinner sea ice base.


Minimums

  There are 4 minimum dips on this graph,  2004, 2007, 2012 and 2016.  The most fascinating point to make is why there was a following summer extensive minimum increase after such great depletions? Why would there be lesser sea ice melting when there was certainly thinner sea ice base after each great event loss?  2013 had the most phenomenal minimum comeback.  By strict terms of achievements,  at 2012 minima,  with less sea ice than ever, led to 2013 maximum, which started with less extent at maxima and wide spread thinner sea ice than 2012,   yet extent minima in 13 had much more sea ice,  the weather wasn't so cold to justify such a strange feature,  but there was plenty thin sea ice which broke up very easily during its spring causing the clouds and cyclonic weather to prevail throughout summer,  stalling greater disintegration of sea ice when it should have disappeared more readily.


Discussion

      Post 2012 Minimums  were all greater in extent,  yet NASA GISS Northern Hemisphere average temperatures were all warmer than 2012 except for 2013.  This temperature record contradiction simply expresses the different world of sea ice,  which may appear to buck the Global Warming trend,  but it is simply a zonal feedback event from clouds over sea  ice not as massively thick.  The multiple presence of huge Arctic Ocean ice islands  spanning in all its quadrants,  more common in the 80's,  basically encouraged more solar forcing against fiercely persistent sea ice,  having much fewer summer leads of open water,  a friendlier  seascape for a persistent high pressure often to the West of the much larger summer polar vortex.  This was the most common weather feature of the Arctic Ocean,  an Anticyclone hovering about the Arctic Ocean gyre area,  the very physical source
making  the  famous gyre turn clockwise,  equally the start of the trans continental sea current  starting from North of Siberia towards Fram Strait.    Summer 2018 saw both of these currents mainly absent.  Despite spring onslaught of very steady High North of Alaska.   One would assume these currents to dominate at times,  especially when the winds became weak, but 2018 sea currents appeared lame at best, incapable of overcoming the weakest winds.  This lack of consistent compaction caused a vast new area of open water to appear well North of Ellesmere and Greenland.
Chaotic spasmic variable currents is the new sea ice circulation  mode,  all this may appear to prevent great melts,  but these are only one sunnier summer away,  or rather sea ice Maximums will surely shrink in extent to about 11, 000,000km2,   this is when 2012's events, or worse,  will occur no matter how cloudy the summer Arctic Ocean may be.   WD September 30 2018 

Tale of 2 sides of the North Pole, one with fresh snow cover, the other a summer cloudy day

 A 2018 special feature wide open water where no human has ever seen before,   was covered up by
snow  ,  as if it never happened.  But it is still there,  under very thin or snow covered sea.

       There is a stalemate in the Atlantic front,  very warm North Atlantic waters keep any progression of sea ice at bay.

   September 14 15,  15 is the one with withe tip at top most end of sea ice,  the North Atlantic front is still heading towards the Pole.  There is a distinct possibility that AMSR2 confuse "Goodbye Waves" with rock hard sea ice.  daily scattered/compressed oscillation of sea ice suggests so.

    80 N 166 W NASA captures 8, 10 and 16 September,  leaves no doubt of further melting  from within,  a compacted ice pack would have less water from within.  

78 N 173 E,  proof of melting again,  with a very small bit of compaction can be determined by the slight displacement of largest pans at right,  while bigger number of goodbye waves in a mere 2 days. WD September 16 2018 

Minima time rapid melting

~When most September 15's are Minima time,  sea ice in 2018 is still rapidly vanishing

NASA EOSDIS September 8-14-15 loop. 79 NORTH 180 West
Great melting has occurred when most times it should be slowed to a stop, indicating warm sea water and air effects with no possible appreciable compaction. 8 to 14 show simply melting with “goodbye waves” galore, individual packs last stand, while 14-15 comparison has differing goodby waves,
meaning different packs on their way to water. There is no doubt about strong melting very late in season.

    It is not impossible to conceive that "goodbye waves"  may be mistaken as ice packs,  as on passive microwave detectors.

   September 14 to 15 wildly different goodbye waves (left) indicate strong melting in the final phase change of differing ice packs.  Note the clouds obstructing a better view (right). 

There has been a major Arctic Ocean climate circulation change ever since
the great melt of 2012, whereas a new thinner sea ice based weather has been
firmly established. While during summer this regime is characterized by the
presence of long lasting cloud coverage favoring the presence of hovering
lingering cyclones, effectively slowing down summer time melting, this very thin ice regime
also favors more clouds during autumn and winter, whilst less melting
during summer was established,  reduced accretion during the other seasons took hold.
The net resulting effect is a slow but gradual thinning of sea ice, which
culminates to now, the minima season delayed.

WD September 15, 2018

Stealth sea surface temperatures

~Although the record high surface water temperatures may appear currently smallish
~Their influence is somehow reflected in larger area of surface air temperatures

    OK it was a long day,  so you think of having a drink of water,  but it is warm,  no problems,  add some ice and almost instant cold settles.  But the instant reading of water near surface is colder than mid to bottom, the ice hasn't had time to absorb all the heat available.  Eventually the ice melts,  and its good and refreshing to drink.  This is pretty much what is happening over the Arctic Ocean,  except remainder sea ice is a tad salty,  if all melted  less so than sea water,  so the fresher water melt settles on top, in fact density of sea water at 0 C is heavier than just melted sea ice, even sea water at 4 C would be denser than  a fresh melt at about  0 C,  how do we measure the real temperature of the sea water when such a situation exists?     Is a good question,  perhaps shall we judge it by melting sea ice action? 

   North of East Siberian Sea,  August 30,  September 13 loop,  a fair bit of melting has occurred while the sst was near 0 C next to the ice,   but very warm 3 to 4 degrees C not very further away. 

   NCEP September 9 very warm SST zones are somehow amplified as much larger surface air areas.   Scattered sea ice mixed with open water temperatures are more near or below  0 C.   Are the very warm salty sst's lurking under the fresher melt waters?   WD September 13, 2018