From warm year to warmer: A different icescape world in 5 years

Sea ice greatest feature is the recent memory it encapsulates,  it is planet Earth's graph  displaying not only daily but more monthly/yearly trends:

  2011 December 6 (darker),  2106 December 9 NOAA IR North Pole captures.   2011 has very long tidal leads, despite a warm winter then,  these occur mainly during Lunar events sometimes in combination with winds.   A sign of sea ice consolidation,  a more congealed cohesive sea ice pack.
2016 has Myriads of very small leads interspersing countless thinner broken up sea ice pans.  A much more fluid ice pack,  not really amenable for mega lead formations.   The more frozen areas of 2016 pack has some much smaller mega leads.  We are very close to winter solstice, if this badly broken up sea ice pack continues till Maxima date,  2017 summer sea ice prospects look very bleak.  The badly broken up sea ice state is deeply intertwined with a feedback loop enticing Cyclones to persist over the long night Arctic Ocean, these keep the sea ice from accreting normally,  keeping the pack loose.   This long night may be the starting time when sea ice extent variations simply will stay down year round. WD December 9,2016

The "Perfect Storm" 1 month late minus the hurricane merge

"Here we are in the graze of winter"

John Mellencamp

  Once upon a time,  there was a season for scary combinations of weather systems merging,
the time was October 31 1991:

       Winter's moved in,  what they call an "Arctic blast",  changed the configuration of the entire North American weather map.    Very bitter cold.  This in part created the Perfect Storm of Andrea Gale fame, ode to the fishermen of NE coast who braved it.  

     2016 has same winter blast,  much weaker,  is a coming 40 days late:

ECMWF  portrays coming High pressure "Arctic dome"  originating mainly from Alaska,

a pale shadow of former self, while the Arctic Ocean is currently dominated by a Cyclone which just  kicked out a budding mega cold "dome" forming,  the by-continental merge of cold air zones was cut in two,  leaving Alaskan build up to come down the Rockies path.  However, on the East coast of North America,  a huge Cyclone system will blossom December 9-10 not unlike segments of the Perfect Storm of 91,   but minus Hurricane Merge,  December  being well past hurricane season,  the last one Nicole streamed by Mid-October 2016. 

       Fortunate merge-less system unlike in 1991,  when winter was winter, long lasting and coming early each October, now we have  a different world, again all facing a warming,  all regions bracing for different weather.  Unknown combinations await.  WD December 5,2016

  Last 30 days (from December 7) NOAA temperature anomaly.  North America is not as cold as old November's use to be.

   We have an "Alaskan Cold Dome" slowly moving South,  looking very similar to the 1991 chart above,  40 days late from the Perfect storm date.  Winter is starting late.   CMC 0600 UTC 12/08/2016.   WD  December 8, 2016.

Late one sided winter start, example of what thick sea ice did regularly months earlier, and what happens later when less sea ice is looser pack

We follow here the progression or regression of the first dominant Anticyclone to cover the Arctic Ocean.  In the Past , Siberian cold continental air easily invaded  and teamed up with the other side 

of the world cold dark clear air massive buildups,  the beginning of cold dark winter didn't take long to be felt by millions once they merged.  Now we see first hand the further demise of  early winter:

 CMC Surface analysis November 25 18:00 UTC,  November 26 00, 06 and 1200.   With real cold air in Siberia, normal -45 C, but warmer every where else in the Arctic.  Some North Atlantic Cyclones now repulsed towards and warming the Urals, this was the settled view for years starting in October.    We now have a push block situation,  the Pacific Cyclone is pushing Northwards,  the latest North Atlantic Cyclone blocked and stalling towards Greenland.
For weeks,  there was no wide spanning Highs over the Arctic Ocean.  Now we can surmise the numerous leads amongst thinner sea ice finally freezing.  I watch carefully how strong or enforced this North Pole High will be.  The cold gathered in Siberian darkness wages the spread of winter from darker lands favoring radiation to space.  In Northern Canada,  the Pacific and Atlantic Cyclones continue the warmth initiated by the great sea ice dispersion event of early September just past. WD November 26,2016

   Next day November 27  show a retreat of the High whence it came,  back positioning because Cyclones have influenced the jet stream favoring their return to the Arctic Ocean,  made easier by the warmth still present,  the jet stream is bent along the Eastern Greenlandic line easing the return of North Atlantic Cyclones.WD November 28,2016

   November 28 key Cyclone position Northeast Greenland is a slingshot for the next one to the South, North Pacific Cyclone conspires to do the same,  the Siberian High is much thinned but still resisting the perimeter assault.WD November 29 2016

November 29 Push and Pull is in,   the Cyclone NW of Canadian Archipelago coast has severely weakened the Siberian High,  all while partner from the North Atlantic did the same.    Not really apparent,  the High pressure SE of Greenland has injected tremendous heat Northwards abetting
the push to destroy the Siberian Antiyclone.  Again the Cyclones have hanged about Arctic Ocean locations which warmed the most over summer past.  Coup de grace is about to finish the Siberian cold,  the NW archipelago Low will pull in the Atlantic Low ,  soon the entire Arctic Ocean will be back to clouds and Low pressure warmth.  WDNov30,2016

  Gone, the once proud High pressure zone spanning the entirety of the Arctic Ocean vanished Day November 30.  Ever present Arctic heat has encouraged warm air Advection not only from the seas,  but from Northern Canada.   This is quite unusual,  even 2012 had no such event in Early December darkness.   The temperatures of the entire Troposphere in 2012-13-14 -15 spanned much colder all over the long night.  Americans and Canadians don't know yet how warm this winter is setting up to be.  But they already have had a very warm start of winter,  no sign of industrial planetary sized cold air production even in Eurasia.  Every location is geo-meteorologically linked.  Here again suggests warmest influence from the oceans.  WD December1,2016

Unprecedented Arctic Ocean surface Air warming and computer modeling, are they integrating the sea ice current morphology?

First the unprecedented warming bit.   Autumn early winter 2016 outclasses all others.  DMI North of 80 surface temperature s easily beat 1998, 2007 and 2012 by very wide margins.

We should apparently use this model to predict the next season minima with 66% confidence:

Fall 2011 DMI really didn't give a hint of the coming 2012 summer season melt. 2006 fared quite well,  2015 not so bad.   

ECMWF 500mb animation,  next 7 days along with 2 other models,  GFS and CMC ,  all agree that the incoming Cyclones from the North Atlantic will not happen.  Note the lack of steady position of the 500 mb Lowest thickness.   500 mb  is used here to find the coldest column of air about .    If the 500 mb lowest height was around Southern Greenland,  there would be great flow Northwards.  

CMC surface analysis November 24 1800 UTC,  Culmination of a High mainly built from the Southern Siberia which had -40 C a couple of days ago.    The battle is on,  will the incursion of Cyclones to Pole stopped?  The temperatures at such places as Franz Josef and Spitsbergen are very invitingly warm.  Sea water temperatures of the North Atlantic  are still very High,  over the sea ice,  clouds but clouds despite the 1033 mb High.  Let's see if the great dispersion of sea ice, at  minima 2016,  has finally its impact faded to more normal icescape weather.  WD November 24,2016

Arctic Ocean air in total darkness enormous warmth, even in clear skies with partial North Atlantic air advection.

~Only one thing does that: ocean heat.

CMC Nov 21,  1800 UTC,  Surface Analysis.  Total darkness, varied in location -4 C to -20 C Arctic Ocean temperatures are extremely warm as a whole.  In particular Buoy 48276 ,  -12 C 85 N 90 W,  a place where -30 C is common at this time of the year.    What we see there is a great number of leads, where once was the densest thickest sea ice,  the engine that spurred winter to roar is now mainly  cooled from the South,  the only advection there is cold from land.    The 1024 mb High is not conducive to warming in darkness as well.  The only thing left is the warming from thinner sea ice and these leads,  which under clouds, or making clouds, keep the surface air on top of sea ice warm.

 NOAA HRPT November 21 1500-2200 UTC IR animation.     The warmest air as seen on surface analysis was below denser clouds,  but the open air has absolutely no other heat source but from the Ocean.

          2016 November great Arctic Ocean anomaly is a "dry run" of what an open long night Arctic Ocean would look like.  Cooling in Darkness would take place over Canadian Islands and Greenland,  this bends the Jet Stream Northwards on the East side of Greenland,  effectively driving warm air Cyclones to the North Pole.     In today's current situation,  multiple leads amongst thinner sea ice don't freeze over as rapidly compared with vast extent of older much thicker ice causing deeper quicker freezing and the build up of Anticyclones.  The current flow from the North Atlantic  slows the onset of a normal winter considerably.   The new presence of multiple leads dispersed throughout the Arctic Ocean,  as opposed to in parts as during previous recent warm years,  is similar to a wide open Arctic Ocean,  much tamer now,  but driving the circulation to keep the leads open,  or in the future, to maintain sea water wide open.  WD November 21, 2016  

Dispersed, emaciated, heat diminished sea ice barely holding together as once upon a time. 1988

28 years ago,  Mid-November 1988,  sea ice was fierce,  consolidated,  encouraged the build up of winter.  Its ice was expansive ,  all the way to Spitzbergen,  North of Ellesmere it was the world
of the big lead,  a lunar phased tidal break up,  it was also the time of the famous ring barrier,  a cousin of the big lead,  between Northern most Ellesmere and North-Western.     1988 IR picture above was bitter cold white,  signifying a normal -30 C or colder.  2016 note day after , November 18,shows the ravages from a warmed planet.  The Big Lead does not form because sea ice is extremely de-consolidated.  One Japanese North Pole expedition the following year,  was on ice, just off Ellesmere,  a huge sound was heard by all,  like thunder for hours,  very scary noise.  It was the Big Lead,  opening,  freezing and closing up again within 2 days.  The well equipped expedition shortly thereafter encountered a wall of broken up sea ice shingles, 10 meters above the ice plane, 1 Kilometer wide along the course of the coast for as long as eyes can see.  It took them 1 week
to get through the big lead wall,  1 kilometer a week speed.    2016 offers no such icescape.

    November 17 1988 IR NOAA capture,  note sea ice temperature as white as the land features.  Meaning ,  winter was normally huge,  spread out From Russia to Canada.  A completely different world of weather.

November 18, 2016,    whatever is cold is over Ellesmere and Greenland,  with very little sea ice freezing as much as 1988.  Cyclones dominate the Arctic Ocean.  Spitzbergen is surrounded by open water,  the strait between Northern Ellesmere and Greenland has loose pack ice,  no tidal ring forming.  WD Novenber 19,2016.

2016 Warmest mid-November Troposphere

  Day November 14 ,  2012 through 2016,  a snapshot in time at 600 mb (close to the average temperature of the entire troposphere).  2016 easily exceeds 2012 in warmth,  note where the
densest sea ice should be,  North of the Canadian Arctic Archipelago,  2016 warmest by 10 to 12 C.
It is an undeniable reflection of the state of sea ice,  swamped by mainly Atlantic cyclones,  which have dramatically slowed the refreeze,  but a stronger presence of thicker sea ice with less leads do the opposite,  repulse Cyclones.

  The year  for Nov 14 with the lowest expansive Arctic Ocean Pressure was again by far  2016.
WD Nov 17, 2016

Dark Horizons, latest cutting edge refraction analysis

~ New equipment allows to capture horizon with sun as low as  -11 degrees below A.H.
~Very latest data suggests 2016 has exceedingly thin sea ice.

        A series of observations on the ground and within the air itself may help explain surface based thermal inversions,  of which a significant player is sea ice and snow cover.

        Darkness offers ideal thermal flux studies,  largely because inconsistent rapid changes by clouds and sun radiation from varying elevations can change the thermal balance quickly.  Without the sun,  we can literally see how thick sea ice is because the only heat source is mostly from the Ocean even if covered by ice and snow insulation.    If sea ice is thinner,  more heat escapes from  it by conduction, convection and IR rays.   But the very top of sea ice surface can have the same temperature but was never observed warmer than surface air,  triggering a prime optical refraction rule: - top of sea ice is always colder or equal in temperature to surface air- ,  as observed in all observation captures so far,  this is just as so in darkness as well.

     It is also known that the upper air temperature profile maximum point increases in altitude in direct proportion to how cold the lower atmosphere is.  The higher the warmest air layer  altitude is on a given upper air profile, the lesser it can influence the surface temperature below,  the steeper the surface based inversion usually becomes, in optical response the horizon rises.    Warmer oceans than air right above always cause the surface to air interface to be adiabatic,  freezing of sea ice surface marks the beginning of a different lower atmospheric profile,  isothermal at first,  then progressively after, surface based inversions start to dominate and eventually persist all winter  except for advection from long night Cyclonic intrusions.
 

November 11 2015 (darker image),  had about 1 arc minute higher horizon elevation compared to 2016 November 15.    As such,  Nov 2016 had warmer temperature -20.3 than 2015 -24.5 C.  Photo captures were done with older telescope (darker image) and more powerful  newer telescope (brighter image).    So far, all comparisons with previous years in brighter very early February captures suggest a very thin sea ice at present.  WD (Nov 15,2016).     

Creeping Northwards winter faces the new world order of open water

~The fight is on,  but Darkness will make winter win.

   18 z CMC Nov12 2016,  the flow of warmed air over open water meets the coldest of this winter yet from Siberia.    There has to be cooling in darkness, especially over land areas.   And so it happened.  In the not so distant past the Arctic Ocean the Arctic Ocean was solid frozen at this moment,  winter easily spread Northwards making a much more fierce winter core for the rest of the Northern Hemisphere.     Now winter gets isolated,  its basic macro geometry has changed.

  1045 mb High with temperatures as cold as -36 C meets the ice free Oceans,  but its the one from the North which shapes or stalls it.  Up to 15 degrees or more warming.  Bending and shaping the anticyclone.   On a wider planetary scale,   the climate is altered significantly from a past which wouldn't have this open water at all.  Again as of last decade or so,  winter has started within the Northern Continents,  as so, within the last dozen years,  all kinds of strange weather came about,  this year will be weirder because the causation from lesser thinner sea ice is bigger than ever. WD Nov12,2016

Not enough North Pole Old multiyear sea ice to make Arctic Siberia normally bitter cold

  Imagine a parcel of air moving like a box on a very long transpolar conveyor belt 2 meters above sea and ice.  In the box there is a thermometer.   This is how we can judge how effective sea ice is in cooling warm air coming from the very warm North Atlantic:

CMC 12 UTC November 6, 2016 surface analysis.  Demonstrates a meek cooling over sea ice of about 14 C over a very long distance by way of the North Pole (1200 Nautical Miles).  Then after,  the remaining Pacific sector open water warms the parcel more than +12 C.  Rendering Northeastern Siberia unusually warmer  than Central Siberia,  where winter has started in full. WD November 7, 2016

Astounding Dark Arctic Night heat

    The main feature of the last 2 days was abnormally warm Arctic Ocean surface temperatures.    But look further at this NOAA animation capture.   There is a lot of clear air in complete darkness,  not that clear air is totally moisture free:

    Closer to 0 kg of precipitable water per meter square, over the greater Arctic appears to be quite normal;

     The Arctic +5.91 C anomaly is dwarfed 3 times by the Arctic Ocean surface air anomaly,  yet again without a complete massive cloud cover in total darkness.   This leaves mainly one source,
the Arctic Ocean itself,  it means that there is a supply of steady heat from a badly broken up sea ice very slowly consolidating to new ice the multiple thousands of heat giving water leads seen above.WD

Big Lead story..... It is not there...... Instead we see a great deal of fracturing as expected from a much warmer October Arctic Ocean.

   October 27 2016 NOAA IR HRPT Northern Ellesmere Island Canada.  Finally a clearing after more than a month of clouds.  The densest sea ice of the Arctic world appeared de-compacted,  disassembled by a massive dispersion event,  looked more like new ice just freezing interlaced with thousands of leads.    Speaking of which,  the Big Lead footprint is glaringly absent,  it may last for weeks after it opens, but not much of a sign of it here.  This is clear evidence of laterally decompressed sea ice.  The big lead is a construct of very dense sea ice, it occurs during the coldest days of winter as well as summer,  what is needed for it to show is a strong Tidal event.  Usually during the full or new moon periods.  This picture was taken during a near new moon phase.  Of interest is also Kennedy Channel,  clogged with broken up sea ice flowing with the Tidal driven current.

    NOAA HRPT IR  with different darkness setting than above,  November 13 2012.  2012 densest sea ice then was much more consolidated,  fracturing a whole lot less,  there was some CAA open water shoreline open water that froze (bottom left),  but the big lead(s) was prominent,  a sure sign of stronger compaction .  Kennedy Channel was much more open,  again a sign of a stronger consolidated pack.

         What we have just observed  was the result of a complex chain of events which essentially rendered early winter densest pack ice much weaker, laced thousands of leads giving away heat enough to foster lingering Cyclones to keep the Arctic Ocean mostly covered with clouds.  A few days ago, the coldest air was from the center of Canadian Arctic Archipelago,  and lesser over Northeast Russia merged. Just before, EX Hurricane Nicole pushed a segment of the North Atlantic jet stream deep towards the North Pole,  to the South of the stream was an Anticyclone which helped consolidate Higher pressure over Center of Arctic Ocean making join the 2 coldest air zones from the continents.

        We now see how bad the densest sea ice is,  in effect a broken up shadow of its former self,  a collage of thousands of pieces just freezing together at this time.  Sea ice dynamics are now drastically different.  Expect the unexpected from this time onwards.  WD October 28, 2016.

Remnants of a Hurricane Nicole facilitated Anticyclone under its Northward Planetary wave alteration

   Following up on previous article about PTS Nicole pushing the Jet Stream Northwards,   SFU animation  jet continued flowing Northwards all the way to the  North Pole,  quite extraordinary event.  It seems a Hurricane system more complex than just a mere strong Cyclone.   Because to the South of the displaced Jet Stream Wave there was a High Pressure system:

The Jet stream wave had Higher pressure to its South,  while there was remarkable dominating
Lower pressure over the Arctic Ocean,  the Cyclone dominated Arctic had a significant circulation makeover,  NOAA Daily composites October 21-24 2016.

Ex Hurricane Nicole appears to have displaced the jet stream Northwards

~Is not the first time an Ex-hurricane affected the jet stream...

   Now that formerly Hurricane-Tropical Storm Nicole approached Greenland,  something caught my eye:

SFSU jet stream animation October 14-18, 2016,   usually marking  Low pressures to the North of the main jet stream.   However hurricane Nicole exhibited some unique features which are interesting.  

Zoomed  SFSU animation Oct 14-18,  As Post Tropical Storm Nicole approached South East Greenland (end of animation loop),  the Jet stream bent Northwards,  as if the ex-Hurricane was a High pressure rather than a Cyclone.  Note the beginning of this animation small 993 mb Cyclone over Ireland having the Jet stream to its Southern perimeter.

 
<<<<<< Small 993 mb Cyclone with Southern Perimeter jet stream (traced in red),  quite normal and expected.


CMC surface map October 14 18:00 UTC
(Colour markings mine)






<<<<<<<<<<<Tropical Storm Nicole flanked to the North by jet stream (traced in red).

CMC October 17, 2016 12:00 UTC.
   (Colour markings mine)


<<<<<<<   Red line South of Greenland is the jet stream.








<<<<Post tropical storm nears Greenland.  Moving Northwards

CMC October 18,2016 18:00 UTC
  (Colour markings mine)








<<<<<<<   PTS Nicole still heading towards the Pole,  clearly bent and moved the jet stream Northwards.    Most often (but not always) Cyclones make the jet stream do the opposite,  bend Southwards.








          This is clearly an interesting observation,  approaching towards the North Atlantic run of the mill  Cyclones usually  influence the jet stream to move to their South.

 CMC 250 mb chart  October 19 2016,
PTS Nicole now an important Polar Cyclone,
right where most  Cyclones usually spin others to move Eastwards.   Northwards trek seems to have stalled,  but it is still a very significant
about 860 mb.  

<<<   Just starting jet at right of frame.

                       CMC October 19, 12:00 UTC surface chart.   As I write the Low is 962 mb.  






WD October 18,2016

Echoes of 2016 sea ice minima are reflected in present Arctic Ocean temperatures

Current North of 80N atmospheric temperatures are fabulously warmer than 2012 for quite a while.   There comes a point when collective evidence is simply overwhelming,  when there can be simplified conclusions drawn from it.   The joint stable long lasting cloud cover (despite the presence of moderate Anticyclones),  the persistent Cyclones hovering over the Arctic Ocean and exceedingly warm surface pan Arctic temperatures indicate a common denominator:  current sea ice condition is extensively weakened,  is thinner with intermixed myriad leads of open water.   To claim otherwise,  defies what we know from past sea ice to lower atmosphere interactions.

Arctic Ocean surface air temperatures were much colder same date October 17 2012,  NOAA (above).  -20 to -25 for significant areas.    Compared to 2016 which was about -10 C daily average at coldest,  indicating the mere beginning of winter at the densest pack location.   

     2012 densest pack was largely unscathed compared to 2016.   Winter 2012 started a whole lot more over the Arctic Ocean dense pack area  with stable over the sea ice pack Anticyclones in darkness,  the densest pack usually can do that every autumn.   2016 densest pack suffered a grand de-coiling wave at about sea ice minima of record, along with dispersive atmospheric circulation caused by persistent Cyclones North of Beaufort sea.   

From this evidence,  we may attempt a prognosis,  since 2016 coldest air build up is over Northern Siberia and mainly at the Canadian Arctic Archipelago,  and since the Arctic Ocean is surrounded by more land than sea ,  we may surmise that the Arctic Ocean area is uniquely warmer by itself,

will cool by extension from the coldest Continental zones,  2016 densest pack has just started consolidating well after 2012,,  and  the sea ice of 2016 is in far worse shape than 2012, but in a dispersed way,  which may confuse unless we look at everything.  WD October 17, 2016

JAXA extent artifact or floating snow?

   JAXA October 13 to 14,  14 recognized by extent gains in Laptev sea.  Central top of capture.

    CMC October 15 1200 UTC has very warm temperatures where the extent gain showed up near East Siberian Islands,

  CMC October 15 sea surface temperatures were equally very warm.

    NOAA 01:00 to 05:00 UTC ir animation.  Despite the presence of a moderate Anticyclone  the area in question was loaded with multi layered clouds.  The chance of snow showers were quite good.

         Whether a floating snow, artifact or sea ice creation event has happened ,  depends on our Russian friends North of Siberia  actually visually confirming   this...

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Спасибо WD October 15, 2016

World wide effects from less Arctic sea ice

~Record warm Arctic Ocean impacts planetary circulation

   NOAA Map room last 7 days,  amazing Arctic warm temperatures can have no other origin than self since further South its just as cold over great Northern landscapes, the continents:

From the same time period we can theoretically trace where the jet stream may be,  as above,  South of coldest air anomalies. which are uniquely over land.

    Theory fits with reality,  therefore very warm Arctic Ocean,  gets replenished by warm Pacific advection, a dynamic feedback loop.   A colder Arctic Ocean would have a completely different jet stream profile.  A colder Arctic would flatten the undulations.

Jet stream 1987 (left) October 2-9,  appears not quite the same as identical period 2016 (right).  Not that it should be absolutely the same,  but there are no longer seasonal similarities.  A jet stream shift has happened. The mega 1987 jet over the North Atlantic was typical, most times likewise fuelled by more massive North American cold air building up.    At the base of this change is sea and ice surface temperatures :

   The warmth didn't mix as much with the Arctic in 87 (left),  while winter was naturally expansive in October,  2016 (right) has a different temperature layout for a good chunk of the Northern Hemisphere.  Radical change in sea and ice surface temperatures would absolutely naturally contribute to cause the difference.
WDOctober 11-13,2016