All long range weather projections must consider Sea Ice extent to be correct; April 19 2015 forecast comes through in September!

~El-Nino cooling great parts of Eastern North America did not happen.
~If only sea ice extent projections were just as easy as long range projections with a paper and crayons.

     April 18 Sketch of August September circulation,  part of my yearly long term projection based on refraction techniques and other means.  In Green is the jet stream.

A look at this 250 mb GFS jet stream map:

   Makes it so on September 23.   A very warm summer continues past the autumn  equinox, largely because the cold lost a lot of its source,  the summer Arctic Cryophere much reduced to Greenland and very much less sea ice than usual at this time of the year.

      The image of no Arctic sea ice at all during summer would leave Greenland as the center of the polar jet stream,  this would affect weather incomprehensibly strange except for UK and Ireland with loads full more rain,  but everywhere else would be weird.   Although not there yet,  lack of sea ice like September 2015,  gives us an impression
contradicting normal El-Nino summer just past expectations :

           "Although the primary effects of El Niño will likely be restricted to temperatures and snowfall in Central Canada, there could be a number of indirect consequences, such as lower grocery prices due to increases rainfall in California and a better growing season."

       "The forecast isn’t so sunny for Ontario and Quebec, where Scott says temperatures are expected to be cooler than seasonal norms overall.

Both the Prairie and Atlantic provinces are forecast to see summer temperatures within seasonal averages, with Alberta trending slightly warmer."

    The weather Network model got it wrong:

         NOAA past 90 days demonstrate the "below normal" Weather Channel projection was off, largely because its an El-Nino based forecast. Very little consideration is usually given to sea ice extent with respect to these outputs.

The apparently thorough WN essay had not one word about sea ice.

A neat current weather article of all places from Gawker:

        Breaks down this end of summer extension extremely well. In particular looking at CPC's outlook completely turns the tables on the Weather Network weather projection.

   To all those who try, be weary about making weather projections without considering the Polar Cryospheric prognosis.

       If only sea ice extent numbers were just as easy to predict. But Global weather is changing fast, faster perhaps than anyone with experience can be useful, because geophysical patterns are becoming unconventionally changing with increasing Global Temperatures. WD September 23, 2015

2015 major melt contributor: lack of snowfall during preceding winter.

~Snowfall accelerates sea ice refreezing process
~Lack of snow increases accretion on existing sea ice  while reducing extent at yearly maxima


   One of the biggest factors of 2015 melt was the lack of snow driven by a pan-continental Russia to North america flow of middle Russia dry air.   In one hand , accretion is greater when sea ice is bare and exposed to Arctic long night sky.  On the other,  falling snow,  colder than sea water ,  floats and does not melt  below 0 C,  which is the definition of Arctic Ocean surface temperature in September.  In Arctic autumn, snow just floats or appears a bit submerged just under the surface, this stabilizes the sea surface and likely affects water column convection flow,   and creates just right conditions for refreezing.  I have documented Cryosphere Today mis-interpreting a snow laden sea as ice.   But very shortly after,  in a matter of days,  sea ice set.    Little precipitation during the long night also causes, and more importantly so,  less drifting snow,  which helps ice set much earlier in autumn,  or at any other time during the long dark winter.

  Looking at this CT Archive retrieval,  one would guess 2012 had a moderately greater melt than 2013.
Note the 2012 snow surface cover over lands of NW North-America and North-East Russia.  Logic would dictate more snow presence in tandem with more open water over these naturally colder regions,  it was so.  2012 Ice surface extent recovered remarkably quickly in no small part because it snowed more.

  But look again,  2012 at minima had a great deal less ice than 2013,  and not surprisingly more snow on said colder lands in 2012 rather than 2013,  despite the inferred warmer weather because of the Arctic Ocean massively open in 2012.


          But in 2012,  more than any other recent year,  this was filmed:

   No,  this is not ice,  not even grey ice,  but fresh snow covering sea water.   The winds were just right to create this result.

    Winds mixed the surface up,  and "snow cakes" still lingered on shore and not much further away covering most of the Strait, until the ice set in about 48 hours later.  There was no doubt that snow helped accelerating freeze-up.


     The lesson for 2015,  a dry Arctic winter decreases over all extent,  even though the ice, where it set became thicker, because of no insulation above it.  From the Great Lakes to Southwards towards Russia through the North Pole lied a greater winter imprint,  its lasting legacy is seen here today:

    Hudson Bay and Baffin Bay sea ice survives late in the melt season.  The imprint of a lesser snow cover has important significance.  WD July 24,2015

   

It seems already time to pronounce Bye Bye 2012 record sea ice minima

With a warming El-Nino comes the prospect of more clouds,  but irrelevant during warm Arctic Summer because clouds form a whole lot less with much colder Arctic ground and sea temperatures than found further South.  

BOM El-Nino 3.0 index finally displays a burgeoning El-Nino after several quiescent activity periods  or false starts, from 2011 to January 2015.  

1 day apart SST charts july 19 2012,  july 20,2015.  The North Pacific is way warmer in 2015 as well.  

Undoubtedly contributing to a warmer pan-arctic summer.  The clouds should overwhelm when the sun will appear lower above the horizon,  by end of August.  

Cryosphere today July 18 2012 and 2015.   Arctic sea ice seems right on track to eclipse 2012 record minima,  note all the ice in Kara, Hudson and Baffin Bay seas in 2015,  remove it, about 300,000 Km2,  as it will surely happen, this makes July 18 2015 area  virtually tied with 2012 at this moment .  Except same date 2015 has huge more expansive water with Chukchi and East Siberian seas, exactly where it matters the most.  Beaufort's attributed 40% cover is a bit misleading as Beaufort opened and closed often by the prevailing winds.
From now on, the sun will do much further warming than 2012 on Chukchi and East Siberian, way more prominently in tandem with very warm North Pacific waters.   Hudson and Baffin Bay current sea ice areas are but temporary outliers and will vanish soon,  they are a product of a dry winter just past.   Snowfall helps create thicker sea ice,  less of it over the winter meant more sea ice accretion from the setting of fast ice onwards,  but also creating lesser ice Extent at maxima where the normal Arctic polynyas exist, these helped create a much more earlier ice free NW passage sea route just about to open.  The over all outlook is in favour for 2015 to become new standard bearer for all time minima extent and area, it will be quite obvious soon.   




Late August blitz melting of 2014 was sudden because of very weakened sea ice condition,  as we can see,  this blitz is occurring -now-  almost 1 month ahead of time.  wd july 21,2015

From Barrow Strait to Barrow Alaska Sea ice gives the same interesting horizons.

After hitting play,  place mouse Cursor tip at sea ice
  horizon center, leave it alone and enjoy the
 shifting.   (2007-2008) 

U of Alaska Barrow webcam says it all.  Even a plain webcam easily demonstrates the shifting horizon between ice "seasons",  there are likely more than 11...   After watching the video above and or any other well done sequences.  You may realize the seasons namely:  1- Pre first fast ice ice ultra low horizon   2-Freeze up horizon ,  3- Thin ice ice horizon,  4-  Dark season ice,  5- Sunrise horizon 6-Great late winter horizon ice, 7-Great Diurnal shifting horizon ice,  8-"First Melt" astronomical horizon ice,  9- Melt Pond horizon ice,  10- Mixed water and ice horizons,11- open sea water horizons.  WD June 5,2015

 

Dedicated Sea ice model proofing, offering Horizon observations for correlations.

~First ever sea and ice temperature profiles extracted by refraction observations.  
~Already helped proving buoy top thermistors measuring wrong temperatures
~It is hoped to be a useful for Sea ice dedicated coupled models.  

   It has been known that GRIB  model can't duplicate exact Arctic Ocean sunset geometry,  or not calculate near surface inversions exactly by either failing to replicate an inversion temperature profile or missing to forecast them all together.  Mass Buoys also exaggerate the solar warming of its top thermistors,  I noticed this when a consistent isotherm was observed a few weeks after end of long night over NW passage sea ice horizon after every Local Apparent Noon.    When sea ice horizon elevation is identical to the true astronomical horizon it means that top of sea ice and the air right above have identical temperatures.  During Spring from Southern Cornwallis Island Nunavut Canada shores, a stable isotherm was seen lasting from a few minutes during first day it was observed  to nearly half a day several weeks later,  even  when quite cold temperatures persisted.  This contradicted buoy data suggesting an adiabatic profile with top  sea ice air warmer than surface air at 2 meters.  

There is substantial data to extract from horizon observations throughout the entire Arctic year.  The following figure encapsulates the main temperatures profiles of sea water, ice and air over the entire year:

    Temperature profiles determined by Horizon Elevations can be very useful to check Gridded GCM's.   Here is the summary of all phases of sea ice throughout the Arctic year.    Some temperature profiles are truncated in order to fit the sketch.   It would be desirable to see a similar figure created by a coupled model.

 From left to right there are about 9 recognizable horizon elevation changes which stem
from significant temperature changes on part of or the entire temperature profile comprising either two or three  different mediums.

Late Summer 74N 95W:

    High Arctic surface temperatures may vary between -5 to +5 C.   At +5 C there can be a temperature  inversion over a sea with sst's  not usually exceeding +4 C.

Early Autumn;

     Surface temperatures normally vary from -3 to -10 C,   it is common to observe the true astronomical horizon when sea surface temperature is equal to surface air.

Middle Autumn;

    Is  the time when sea water subsists despite colder -5 to -15 C air temps.  When the temperature is seasonal minimum cold,  the horizon drops to is lowest point of the year.

  Late fall;

    Fast ice forms usually after October 1,  especially during the last 10 years as opposed to early and mid September in the further away recent past.   Something spectacular
occurs with the horizon when grey ice starts to be prominent,  the horizon is seen very low with open water,  and jumps to above Astronomical Horizon in less a day after  sea ice completely covers all the way to the horizon,  the ice accretes till "first melt".

  Early Winter;

     With the beginning of long night (early November),  the sea ice horizon very slowly rises day by day until it vanishes in the night.

  Mid Winter;

     Is marked by temperatures between -25 and -40 C with only daily noon twilight for bright light.  The horizon is much higher at sunrise from the long night compared to when sea ice first set completely.   But there are some variances caused by advection of either cold or warmer air.   New ice usually is about 1 meter thick.   By mid February,  the effects of solar radiation increases horizon elevations even more, especially in the evening,  to highest levels until mid-April.

Late Winter;

   A surprising view occurs when the astronomical horizon is the same as the ice horizon for the first time since mid October, it is "first melt",   when the sun is high enough in the sky to eradicate the very persistent inversion giving horizon continuously above astronomical horizon.   "First melt" likely happens at bottom of the ice column, but the horizon rises a few minutes after  and the bottom refreezes.   Over the last 4 years ,  "first melt "  dates occurred on different dates,  2010 being the earliest.   After FM,  the sea bottom thaws and refreezes daily.  With a gradual progression of longer and longer horizons at same astronomical level,  only interrupted by snowfall, clouds or fog,  the ice bottom remains more less the same.   From this time the ice column warms slowly as well.

  Early Spring;

      Day by day the Astronomical horizon is achieved at longer and longer intervals.
Post Local Apparent Noon Isotherms subsist right above the ice.  The ice rots at bottom.
But in the evening with lower sun in sky,  the horizon rises, inversions occur diurnally, and exist from evening to early morning when sunny,  they even happen during cloudy periods.  The ice column warms more and more,  contributing to ice bottom rot.    But there is cold ice "middle" core which helps cool the adjoining air faster thus causing the horizon to rise. In time,  the cold ice core becomes quite insignificant,  the astronomical horizon period extends to nearly all day.

Late spring;

     The onset of melt ponds should lower the horizon below astronomical horizon, but the ponds must cover most of the ice all the way to the horizon.  If so,  an adiabatic profile subsists from top of ice surface upwards.  Both top and bottom ice starts to melt.  Sea water temperatures increase slowly, necessary to melt sea ice depleted of salt,  which has a point of fusion closer to 0 degrees C.  A sea ice column may subsist even with temperatures nearest or just above -1.8 C,  provided brine has been flushed away. WD May23, 2015

Sea Ice Thermal Flux Profiles II, as demonstrated by the horizon; thin ice

~A big surprise, very thin sea ice gives a similar horizon to much thicker ice, the instant it is set completely.
~The difference between the two ice profiles help explain thermodynamic action.

   Astounding as it sounds,  thin sea ice raises the horizon a lot as soon as it forms.  Historically, there has been well known weather the day sea ice forms,  the clouds clear along with a common impression of much colder temperatures all around coastal areas.  For obvious reasons thermal variances are difficult to study when sea water turns to sea ice,  although flux studies have been done mainly after sea ice is solid enough to put equipment on it.

   Just after Minima of 2013.  The apparent Arctic wide cooling caused by extraordinary dynamic Gyre stall of ice compaction over the entire Arctic Ocean (except for the Atlantic side) caused an earlier freeze up of McClure and Barrow Strait.   This reduced the usual cloudy autumn from masking the horizon.  Above left picture was on September 21, 2013, with surface temperature -6 C.  Some ice was already present but sea ice formed further afterwards.  Middle picture was September 23, 2013,  sea ice appeared to have formed completely and the horizon rose above true astronomical horizon.  This is simply an exhilarating discovery, it leaves long wave thermal transfer as the principal thermal contributor  of the near surface inversion causing the greater refraction looming.    Further to this (extreme right),   the horizon remained the same or even dropped a little 2 hours later in the evening.    This is another discovery.  Usually a thicker sea ice horizon rises in the evening,  even when cloudy, a stronger evening inversion did not happen when ice was seen bran new.   This lack of horizon rise was observed again multiple times with very thin ice.   I suggest an absent sea ice "cold" core which allows the air to cool faster above top of ice,  while with new ice the higher sun presence at about noon gave greater thermal flux upwards creating a slightly more visible inversion.

   A common problem with very new sea ice analysis is of course caused by fog or clouds.  Natural cooling during autumn causes a great deal of moisture obscurations.  Fortunately 2014 had a brief respite just about the right time,  although not perfect,  the photographic  repetition of 2013  freeze-up was achieved.

    Barrow Strait  can be very complicated by its tidal currents which change substantially during a moon cycle.    But here we can note the same thermal sceneries as witnessed in 2013, 2012, 2011 and 2009.  Capturing a freeze-up with very little clouds is rare.  This is why 2014 and 2013 are featured here,  the other years had some clouds making demonstrations possible with a lot more explanations.  2014 freeze-up took 3 days,  of which day 2 had grey ice which will be dealt with on a subsequent article. Picture of October 1 (extreme left) feature rolling water waves and sea ice bits in a fierce wind storm.  Temperatures ranged from -9 to -12 between Oct 1 and 3.  2014 freeze-up occurred at about -11 C which was a return to regular yearly feature.  except for 2013.    On October 3, Barrow horizon rose substantially despite similar temperatures.  20:07:54 UTC capture (second from left) had new thin ice slightly mangled by winds and tidal currents during its formation.  But at once the horizon rose when sea ice covered all of sea water up to the horizon.  A few hours later the horizon dropped (23:31:26) again likely due to air cooling faster than top of thin ice.  Well frozen with thicker sea ice,  the horizon rose most 15 days later (furtherest right).  the cold ice core started to to grow enough to affect the evening rise, accretion of ice goes in tandem with a more risen horizon.

  Barrow Strait Ice is usually more chaotic than McClure Strait , but concurring to the demo above  the Western view of the Northwest passage had similar refraction effects but on different days:

   October 2, 4 and 18 2014 (from left to right),  sea ice set a day later in McClure Strait and looking at NW passage .  October 3 had grey ice.  The much lowered water horizon (left) rose at freeze-up on (center),  the horizon rose further 2 weeks later indicating the build up of a cold ice core.  The repetition of this looming feature helps explain thermal fluxes instantly.  

  Thin sea ice main feature as giving as high or higher horizon compared with thicker spring time sea ice at noon must be due in large part to thermal long wave heat from the the summer warmed sea causing a weak inversion,    convection stops the moment the sea surface becomes crystalline, the insulation properties of very thin sea ice is simply spectacular.    Sea ice conduction in direct contact with surface air plays a different role in autumn,  likely slightly warming the interface (if at all)  as opposed to cooling the snow/ice with air interface in spring especially in the evening.  The missing core of cold ice is replaced by thermally "hot" sea water reducing evening inversion amplification.  But this feature has been observed to be short lived,  one week or so from onset the stable to slightly lowering horizon in evening changes to heightening as a top of ice cold core becomes more and more resilient and effectively cools the interface faster after warming from the autumnal noon Polar sun. Conduction from very thin sea ice appears to be very poor,  not powerful enough to warm interface air by causing and adiabatic profile which would lower the horizon below astronomical horizon height.   WD May17,2015

Reference:
 

Surface energy fluxes of Arctic winter sea ice in Barrow Strait

Sea ice thermal flux profiles , as demonstrated by the horizon.

~Part 1 ,  sea water to very thin sea ice
~ An attempt to explain what happens at the sea to air interface when sea ice forms

    I was going to demonstrate possible clashing between buoy data and refraction observations.  But it is now known that above sea ice Mass Buoys thermistors exaggerate
the snow or air layer temperatures a great deal.   Buoy 2015A had 20 cm of snow with temperatures in excess of +7 C,  while surface temperatures was +1.48 C (thanks to Jim Hunt for good detective work).   It is not impossible for snow surface to be warmer than the air when its sunny.  But it is impossible to have snow at +7 C.     This obvious flaw asserts questions and doubts  about for above ice string thermistors.  Moreover this data is lost to what should have been computer Model output verifications.  It is a loss which may be compensated by refraction observations.

Simple initial sea ice formation;
                                 
     Easy as it seems,  thermally speaking it is not, we let the horizon demonstrate,  but after several freeze-up seasons of observation,  the problem was to be sure if the sea ice has been totally covered all the way till the horizon.   Any open water affects the horizon line elevation.    Arctic sea water is magnificently stable in temperature,  so its horizon line varies almost exclusively with air temperature change:

   A much lowered horizon is due to "sinking",  the surface temperature is "about" 6.2 degrees warmer than air,  "about" because the horizon line changes position with the temperature differences between the entire light path which is never measured.    The few bits of ice are also miraged.  

     The most difficult analysis possible is to see what happens when sea ice forms over a wide expanse at once,  but what seems fairly certain,  there is no ice thickness limit by which the horizon always rises above true astronomical horizon.  This seems to be an astounding discovery:

   2014 October 3 (left) and the next day.  The horizon at left is about 17 km distant,  (at right) more than 25 Kilometers away.   Mostly water horizon turns to 100 % sea ice.  Similar freeze-ups were re- observed in 2013 and 2012.   It does not matter how thick the ice is,  it will set the horizon above astronomical line as long as the sea is completely covered with ice.  But the finer details,  from very low horizon of open water under a deep freezing air,  to above astronomical when sea ice covers everything,  need be carefully studied since it helps determine thermal flux  balance in one glimpse.  Usually the very low pre-freezing sea water horizon does not last long because the very cold air changes the state of sea surface.   Recent years freeze-ups happened because of colder Southern in provenance atmospheric advection , with the exception of 2013,  sea water was so warmed air temperatures needed to be below -11 C.

    High precision satellite pictures along with a careful analysis of a surface phase change would be quite revealing.   The reason for various horizon heights have everything to do with thermal fluxes.  As winter progresses,  the horizon changes until spring when the sun literally gives a similar horizon look,  but for entirely different  reasons than at freeze-up.   The very low sinking horizon exists because of a very steep near surface adiabatic profile,  the raised horizon on account of a completely ice covered sea,  is caused by looming  by profiles having stable inversions varying in strength based entirely on the current thermal balance.  This indirectly identifies ice thickness because
thicker sea ice has a cold or warm "core", significantly affecting thermodynamic action.   WD May 10,2015

It is shaping up like 2007

~Warmest NorthWest passage spring and the creation of a circulation Dipole

     Latest EH2r refraction Upper Air of NW passage data is warmest ever in 14 seasons.
Mid April projection of Cold Temperature North Pole locations is so far so good accurate.    But the greatest implication is a circulation pattern similar to 2007.

        2007 (extreme left), compared to 2012, 13 and 15 coldest air in the Northern Atmosphere locations.   2015 Refraction of sun disks over the NW passage is the least ever measured confirming NOAA summary above,  the more the upper air is cold the smaller the vertical diameter of the sun. Up to today,   2015 expanded sun disks  is an order of magnitude higher than warmest 2005 and 2010.   The obvious resulting  circulation pattern is favorable for High Pressure system over Beaufort Sea  very similar to 2007. WD May 7,2015

Latent heat of fusion complexities

~In search of intricate thermal patterns within sea ice.

    Latest refraction observations do not always match mass buoys data at similar latitudes to 74 North,  this is quite interesting,  it is not a matter of reconciling the data with observations,  but rather understanding if there is any way of revealing the most intimate thermal actions, and also finding out if there is data error by solar radiation affecting top buoy thermistors .   The information readily available is sparse, resolution is not as desired,  but there is some basic numbers which come out quite well.

      Latent heat of fusion dictates when ice freezes there is a substantial release of heat,  it is rather energy from extremely kinetic molecules stabilizing to a crystallin form,  this energy may be observed near the North Pole,  there is a buoy moving under the presence of permanent sun rays  hitting the sea ice surface  continuously except by clouds and snow cover;

"04/30/2015 08:00","     88.6400","    -23.6731","GPS","    -10.83","   1025.60","      0.06","      1.89","      0.00","     -1.89","    -10.45","    -10.45","    -10.47","    -10.56","    -10.50","    -10.42","    -10.01","     -9.97","     -9.88","     -9.82","     -9.64","     -9.35","     -9.12","     -8.82","     -8.53","     -8.00","     -7.75","     -7.40","     -7.02","     -6.67","     -6.24","     -5.89","     -5.57","     -5.04","     -4.64","     -4.15","     -3.71","     -3.22","     -2.73","     -2.25","     -1.81","     -1.86","     -1.78","     -1.83","     -1.81","     -1.79","     -1.81","     -1.80","     -1.79","     -1.78","     -1.80","     -1.82","     -1.80","     -1.82","     -1.84"
"04/30/2015 09:00","     88.6394","    -23.6587","GPS","    -11.24","   1025.71","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","",""
"04/30/2015 10:00","     88.6388","    -23.6399","GPS","    -11.03","   1025.71","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","",""
"04/30/2015 11:00","     88.6382","    -23.6171","GPS","    -10.74","   1025.74","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","",""
"04/30/2015 12:00","     88.6377","    -23.5929","GPS","    -10.61","   1025.74","      0.06","      1.88","      0.00","     -1.88","    -10.19","    -10.19","    -10.20","    -10.29","    -10.24","    -10.11","     -9.89","     -9.87","     -9.79","     -9.75","     -9.59","     -9.32","     -9.10","     -8.80","     -8.51","     -7.98","     -7.73","     -7.38","     -7.00","     -6.65","     -6.22","     -5.88","     -5.56","     -5.03","     -4.64","     -4.14","     -3.71","     -3.22","     -2.73","     -2.25","     -1.80","     -1.86","     -1.78","     -1.83","     -1.81","     -1.79","     -1.82","     -1.80","     -1.79","     -1.77","     -1.80","     -1.82","     -1.80","     -1.82","     -1.84"
"04/30/2015 13:00","     88.6371","    -23.5673","GPS","    -10.61","   1025.81","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","",""
"04/30/2015 14:00","     88.6366","    -23.5423","GPS","    -10.66","   1025.74","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","",""
"04/30/2015 15:00","     88.6360","    -23.5206","GPS","    -10.62","   1025.81","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","",""
"04/30/2015 16:00","     88.6355","    -23.5003","GPS","    -10.64","   1025.53","      0.06","      2.01","      0.00","     -2.01","    -10.19","    -10.19","    -10.13","    -10.21","    -10.17","     -9.96","     -9.69","     -9.75","     -9.70","     -9.69","     -9.54","     -9.28","     -9.07","     -8.78","     -8.49","     -7.96","     -7.71","     -7.35","     -6.98","     -6.64","     -6.21","     -5.87","     -5.55","     -5.02","     -4.63","     -4.14","     -3.71","     -3.22","     -2.73","     -2.26","     -1.81","     -1.85","     -1.78","     -1.83","     -1.81","     -1.79","     -1.81","     -1.81","     -1.80","     -1.77","     -1.81","     -1.82","     -1.81","     -1.83","     -1.84"

        A good 230 cm (in red) of sea ice and snow has warmed when apparently 13 cm of ice was made at the bottom of the sea ice column, on april 30 sea ice thickness varied between 187 and 202 cm for weeks.  But a 13 cm gain is quite an accomplishment, especially considering surface temperature nearly equal,  or if not equal to snow surface top (in orange).  The weather during  the 8 hours presented was likely a mix between clouds and some sunshine.  But more clouds than sun.  In effect the variable but warmish polar weather is unique on Earth except at other end of the planet.  There is no diurnal temperature effect similar to a normal day at Southern latitudes.  An excellent location to observe thermal fluctuations at nearly constant sun light.   Clouds add complications which need be studied as well.

     Near North Pole Buoy clearly confirms unusual bottom of ice activity,  which should happen when Ta = Ti,  when air temperature is equal to snow/ice,  there should be melting in the sheet bottom, but the melting in itself should be complex.  Bottom ice may be less salty than sea water, a to and fro melt and freeze may happen often with different temperatures when less salty ice melts an lays less dense water on top of denser sea water.  Over summer if  high latitude near the pole ice survives ,  it can only create fantastic structures of odd geometries.  Sea Ice bottom is not as flat as on its surface.

     Looking at 2015d buoy from a distance would not show a great horizon height variation because Ta=Ti,  the horizon would be at the true astronomical elevation.
If 13 cm was formed as suggested by this data, latent heat was released,
which appears to have been recorded at some height above the ice sea water interface.
Top of sea water has also cooled compared to 4 hours prior (in blue).

     Subsequent to April 30,  the ice has no accreted further  than 201 cm,  suggesting
a state of thermal equilibrium,  when bottom melting and freezing may happen by weather fluctuations.   It is exactly like what happens to sea ice further South with a diurnal high and low sun but for shorter time period  after local apparent noon,  except noon is dragged out for months until a few weeks before autumnal equinox,  however with much weaker radiation input from a much lower in sky but steady sun.   From now own we can determine that ice accretion can no longer happen greatly as the sun will rise to more than 21 degrees high.   Further South sea ice goes through far more severe thermal fluctuations,  which highlights two types of sea ice,  North Pole ice should not fracture as easily and is under less stress than sea ice with a sun 30 to 40 degrees high at noon then setting or staying up low at midnight.  I proposed southern sea ice melting occurs after noon when sunny,  but refreezing occurs later,  reducing or stalling accretion,  this melting freezing process continues only interrupted by winds and clouds until solstice sun melts ice quite thoroughly,  but it must break up more readily than at the pole.  wd May 3,2015
 

HOW to find underground frozen water on Mars - Without NASA rover drills

-A thin atmosphere misgivings in optical height variances is surely compensated by huge diurnal temperature variations.

   The long time quest for water on Mars has been resolved for some time,  there is some,   but it may be easier to find huge permafrost lakes by simply looking at the horizon line.  Mars Permafrost,  should be similar to Arctic permafrost,  just as much as Arctic sea ice.  Permafrost leaves a drier interface than water,  but unlike water,  ice is an insulator,  like permafrost.  In the Martian under shallow rock  permafrost,  the ground temperature  should be kept colder than with thick dry rock layers. 

       Rapid conduction sun forced diurnal atmospheric inversions are a feature found with sea ice,  permafrost does the same.  Martian atmosphere is 100 times thinner than on Earth,  however there is one.  Where there is an atmosphere there is atmospheric refraction.  One must observe there more carefully.

    To prove this,  one of the rovers must take pictures  at 3 hours intervals after Local Apparent Midnight and Noon,  without moving at all.  The same pictures will show a different horizon line something like:

   A weak evening inversion happens when the sun lowers over a clear High Arctic horizon of sea ice.     Ice has a heat capacity more than twice as strong as Earth air,  heat capacity of Mars atmosphere is weaker.   However,  heat capacity of rocks ,  either on Earth or Mars is lesser than ice.  For these reasons,  if there is any ice under a relatively shallow layer of rocks,  the horizon line should vary compared to dry rock sub-surface,   with a variance lesser than on Polar Earth,  but vary nevertheless.  We should find water there by analyzing horizon permutations especially with very good  photographic equipment.  WD April 25,2014


   Ice warms or cools much slower than the Martian atmosphere,  in a given substratum,  a pure rock formation would vary horizon heights more significantly than one with permafrost.  The way to detect a variation  without multiple pictures taken from the same position would be to study wide horizon pictures which would bring out a profile look of an apparent "lake without water",  the middle of this " empty lake" would appear deeper than "shorelines".    The dry rock stratum would appear higher because rocks warm faster than ice. 

     The Mars curiosity rover has at least one such NASA picture :

   This is the kind of single picture needed to detect permafrost on Mars. There is an apparent horizon sun line,  a bright line just above the horizon, it is an optical feature from an atmospheric structure suggesting that indeed, the horizon is flat,  this bright line also implies great refraction.  The middle of the picture shows a very small drop in horizon from the right,  more prominent from the left.  Permafrost,  frozen water mixed with Mars dirt,  may be under horizon land in the middle of this picture .  This requires a verification of how flat this horizon is,  by taking multiple pictures from the same spot and from other means...   WD October 30 2017

Annual SPRING/SUMMER projection by potent refraction methods and other means

~Its hard to interpret complex thermal systems,  even harder to foresee what they will do.

~Warmest summer in history to come makes it somewhat easier.


Here is Unique in the world Refraction Prognosis:


SKY Colours - Aerosols:
   

    Double Katimavik sunset, a very artistic mesmerizing   end of Arctic day.   Katimavik is an Inuktitut word,  from the language of Inuit people who live here,  meaning meeting place,  a once upon a time real place in 1967 Montreal.   Echoes from the past repeated visually along with multi-coloured flashes above ( illuminated gravity waves ducts),  was on March 26,  2015, a typical Northwest passage view from Southern Cornwallis Island.  

     Sky clarity throughout winter\spring 2014-2015 was uncanny.  Either revealing deep twilight brightness from distant weather systems refracted light, or drier sunsets devoid of extreme redness,  very little moisture in the air does that:

   Green flash above the smaller Katimavik along a red flash below.  With main sun disk image compressed vertically close to 20 times.  

    These complex optical physics factors have significant meaning.  The compressed sun (picture above) kept its true colour with 20 times more atmospheric thickness.  The high elevation green flash is a very delicate structure often not seen green because of aerosols or water vapour.  Winter\Spring 2015 North American Arctic had exceptionally clean air more often than not.   This implicates extreme warming of the Arctic  as the sun rises progressively higher till 24 hour days,  clear low in concentration aerosol days,  will make surface air warmer.   

Sunsets mostly backed Southwards:

       Exact sun positions when they disappear reveal the nature of the distant surface to air interface.  In the Arctic,  the rising spring sun creates a warm sea ice surface which cools rapidly in the evening on transient days between the long night and the midnight sun.  Sea ice surface is cooling faster than air because of its colder than air inner core,  when the core is warmed by conduction the surface ice cools,  then the air right above does likewise.    This creates an isothermal inversion which rises the horizon.  If there is a strong inversion,  the day lengthens,  if there is a weak one or none the day shortens.   Longest days are noted when the sun is seen when it is far below the horizon.  A much longer day has a sun visible greater than 1.6 degrees below the horizon.   In 2001 there was 10 extremely late sunsets,  in 2015 ,  2.     Last year there was  4.      

      A lack of cooling, thermal radiation escaping to space, over the entire winter and early spring makes sea ice core temperatures warmer wise.  With less of a 'heat sink' sea ice,  inversions become weaker, therefore the sun shifts southwards at sunset;

              This sunset in 2004 was picked to compare with 2015's  greatest Northwards Shift.   It lasted till the sun was last seen at 2.09 degrees below astronomical horizon and located 285 degrees azimuth,  15 degrees Northwards of true geographical West.  

   11 years later on same March 24,  the sun disk at Akhet (when the sun touches the horizon) was much larger,  this is an indication of weaker over all inversions.  Sunset was 1.9 degrees below the horizon,  the latest day length extension by refraction since sunrise from the long night of 2014-15.  It was last seen 283.21 degrees azimuth,  a full 1.8 degrees Southwards then when a past colder sea ice was formed over the winter of 2003-04.   1.8 degrees is a huge distance, roughly equivalent to 4 sun diameters.    

Sunset without toboggan sun slide:

    When the land surface is much warmer, sunsets look like what is seen further South,  they skim the horizon Northwards less.  Arctic sunsets usually give a show of extreme deformations uncommon anywhere else on Earth except on high mountains or Antarctica.  One of these is the below 0 degrees sun line sliding down a hill,  when the sun is usually long gone completely below the horizon in say a place like New York,  the Arctic does this :

   2008 was the last time the sun line was seen sliding down hill for about 1 minute,  a classified phenomena called toboggan sun,  but on initial anniversary in 2001 it slid further down for 3 and a half minutes.  

       2015 on same March 31 day,  the sunset was 7 minutes earlier than 2008,  a very significant shortening of the day. The toboggan stopped short on top of the hill not touching  the downward slope,  as if a true toboggan on rocks instead of snow,  but at end of March 2015 the sandstone gravel hill top was indeed barer and much warmer  killing the chance of surface to air steep inversion ducting.   For Toboggan Sun to exist,  the ground surface must be very much colder.    

Sea Ice Horizon permutations:

    Recently learned fantastic discovery of judging whether underside ice is melting or not reveals very interesting relations with weather and whether sea ice underside melts  even when temperatures outside are as cold as -35 C.  I am in the process of discovery from horizon elevation data lines,  whether more melting happens when its not windy,  windy, cloudy, or  with an optically thick aerosol rich  atmosphere.  What is reasonably known is subsequences after First Melts.  A very low September Minima starts from a very early consistent daily cyclic thermal process.  If sea ice horizon does progressively maintain the astronomical horizon and or increase in time maintaining this line every next day,  the minima will be greatly reduced.  So far,  2015 post FM true astronomical horizon  increased in duration every day when observed.  It signals hard to stop increasing diurnal melting periods.  Like any engine, when an engine sputters its not as warm,  as sea ice was in the spring of 2014 when astronomical line was seen erratic only more consistent in later May.   A big Arctic Sea ice minima begins with a strong essentially regular  ever increasing in time under-melt.  

     The Northwest passage of 2015 has thick First Year ice
because of a lack of snow cover by less snowfall and greater sublimation caused by unstable air from much more common than usual surface to air adiabatic temperature profiles.    Despite 2015 sea ice greater accretion,  its thickness was nowhere near past average thickness spanning the same distance of the light rays from the setting sun, the atmospheric light path.  And so, sea ice horizon rises are directly proportional to sea ice thickness.  

Flying saucer type sunset is not in the air,  but aerosols 
masked the ice horizon risen 11.6 arc minutes,  March 27 2004.  

   Near last sighting of the sun with 2015 clear air revealing ice horizon risen 5.8 arc minutes on March 27. 

    The difference between March 2015 and 2004 was set at autumn 2014 and 2003,  the Northwest passage of September 15,  2014  had wide open water spanning its entire distance.  2003 NWP on same September day was clogged with multi-year ice:

      
    What is the Score?;  Climate Projection "Howitzer" vertical sun disk expansions  post- Arctic long night results:

Frequency of maximum expanded average sun disks represented by 110 sun elevations from -.9 to 10 degrees 

              2015,  2013, 2006 and 2005 11.82%
                                  2010 10.91%
                                2012 and 2011 10%

        From 425 observations compared with about 4000,  clear weather was strong since end of February.

    With no apparent temperature change,  2002 to 2015 vertical sun disks would be 8.1% expanded from year to year.  The last 5 of 6 years had more expanded sun disks than the previous 10 combined.  

    An apparently totally new phenomena has been surging in the past 5 years,  when a lower sun in the sky gives a greater size vertical sun disk than at a higher elevation.
This defines an area of the lower atmosphere with a very warm layer of air,  as the sun passes through this layer, it expands in size.   There were many such captures of thicker warmer lower layers in the spring of 2015.  The exact impact of such layering of warmer air is hard to fathom. 
   
From all this and more sources;   the Projection:

      Because of overwhelming refraction heat signals,
2015 will be warmest year in Northern Hemisphere history -  by a significantly larger margin than 2014.  No High Arctic observations over Cornwallis Island gave a consistent sign of cooling, despite being right near center
of coldest atmosphere in the world.  This forecast is not at all counting on El-Nino rising again,  which undoubtedly guaranties more heat. 

   Sea ice adds complexities,  remaining Arctic pack  is estimated thicker than past few years,  yet we are presently  at all time low extents.    Horizon height measurements confirmed that first year sea ice of 2015 is indeed thicker than last year in the Canadian archipelago NW passage,  but not because it was colder,  but rather from dried up North Pole in provenance air as depicted here for nearly the entire dark season and current spring.   It was astonishing,  there was a nearly continuous flow of dry but adiabatic air (December onwards) which sublimated the sea and land surface snow cover of almost the entire North American Arctic sector.  There is thicker first year sea ice in the Canadian Arctic sector compared to last year,  but given that winter just past had one day with surface temperatures below -40 C over Cornwallis Island Nunavut Canada  (for only a few hours in duration),  local sea ice  thickness didn't exceed all time maximums.   

    However,  extent is really more important because without ice sheet cover the sun warms the darker Arctic sea enormously due to more exposure time to sun rays which are very important,   even when the sun is low in the sky,  remember the Arctic has naturally very low concentrations of atmospheric aerosols, especially this spring.  

    Sea ice or lack thereof has a greater affinity to position the Cold Temperature North Pole.  It is thus projected that Beaufort,  Chukchi and East Siberian seas will have a thorough loss of sea ice, leaving the core pack more or less compressed against the Canadian Archipelago to a lesser overall extent than 2012.   The larger question would be the North Pole?  Would it be ice free?  The answer to this very elusive ,  frustrating, furtive and difficult forecast will be at end of this page.  

   General circulation conditions are foreseen in three distinct periods and completely driven by the location of the CTNP (s) and later by  El-Nino which should warm but darken Arctic skies.  Weather throughout the Northern Hemisphere will happen from where-ever the CTNP will be.

ARCTIC dedicated generalized projection;
   
 Period one  April-May 2015:

    2 CTNP's  (Center of capital "C" in purple) will essentially maintain a pan-Arctic dipole by the flow they create.  More or less a continuation of winter past scenario, minus extremely long Southwards freezing flows.   The jet stream will be frequently very North of Alaska dipping down at times at the Can-Am border further East.  This should make Coastal BC wet with not so potent remnant Pacific in origin cyclones eventually merging and diluting Gulf stream cyclones towards Ireland and the UK (not so wet a spring there).    North of Alaska High will be ideal for melting Pacific Sector Arctic Ice.  

  
     Period 2,  June-July 2015:

    Approaching pre-merging North-bound CTNP's Isolate 
the pan Arctic Dipole further.  East-Siberian sea ice melt prime time.  Not so good for Beaufort area with Bering sea now cleared of sea ice.   Here we can realize N-E passage quick opening in the Pacific Arctic sector.    Not so  for Novaya Zemlya  to Pole region where the ice will be largely immobilized and melting in place.    Summer not wet 2012 style for UK and Ireland ,  but definitely cool and grey for Scotland as opposed to Souhwards.  A Super hot Central North America is foreseen because of polar jet stream way in the Northwest Territories with Pacific in origin  floes much more dried by a greater summer surface temperature-dew point spread.   Central Canadian Arctic should be very hot by July. 


Period 3,  August-September 2015:

       Merged single but weak CTNP roughly between Franz Joseph and Spitsbergen Islands, principally because of  North Pacific and El-Nino warmth influence.   Beaufort circulation again not so favorable ,  but with sun rays from clear skies damage done for months and warmed wide open adjoining open seas will make Beaufort ice free.  NW Pacific Cyclones will penetrate the Arctic Ocean 2012 style by mid-August.  With the polar jet stream weak but regenerating come September.    A CTNP in such a location should cause wettest period of the year for Ireland and UK.   driest for BC Canada, and possible Hurricane diversion towards the NE coast of US.   Arctic Cyclones moving Southwards will cool some parts of Russia and mid west North America.  This despite El-Nino clouding the Arctic,  Arctic Cyclones are not very good to foster tornadoes or severe weather.   

    From this projection we can estimate Canadian NW passage open first,  NE later with the often usual Kara Sea ice bridge block vanishing last.   

    El-Nino and North Pacific warm sst moisture is the only feature promoting summer Arctic cooling,  sea ice melt would have been much more vast if extra clouds are not promoted.  However during period 2,  El-Nino and North Pacific warmth will increase Arctic temperature to dew point spreads favoring clearer skies.   


Tornadoes Typhoons and Hurricanes

   There is a need for Cold Upper Air vs Hot surface air for tornadoes.  The seemingly obvious lack of very cold Upper Air due to a very weak therefore warm Stratospheric Polar Vortex (just about to vanish),  and much increased density weighted temperatures throughout most of North America  is not favorable for a fierce tornado season at usual peek periods, so hopefully less of them than probability statistics would predict.  Typhoons will be unfortunately great in numbers in the Pacific,  while Atlantic Hurricanes may be rare but for very late in its season increasing the chance  to be diverted by a High pressure block over the Atlantic favoring a landing Northwards.  

Finally ,  the North Pole

      Hardest for last,  the North Pole will be partially open like a more expanded version of 2013,  with more open water than broken sea ice,  essentially open if defined by
accessible by a non icebreaking ship sailing from the Pacific or Atlantic.  WD 18 April 2015 

First High Arctic SEA ICE Underside Melt 2015

~Earlier than 2014 and 2011 later than 2010 and 2012

~ Made different by lack of surface snow

~ Interpretations from multi-coupled thermal systems made simple by one horizontal line.

    First sea ice underside melt (FM) happens after the long Arctic night when there was 

a continuous accretion of sea ice only interrupted by passing warm Arctic Cyclones.  Following Polar long night sunrise,  the sea ice horizon is always observed elevated  compared to true astronomical horizon which occurs when the sea (ice/land) surface temperature is equal to the air immediately above.  The main characteristic of the first underside melt is that it is observed never lower than true astronomical horizon unless the entire ice column temperature is greater than surface air.   In Arctic Spring, sea ice is a "heat sink"  because it tends to be always colder than sea ice and air,  but when there is no longer thermal emissions from ice towards air,  the underside melts.  This gives an apparent "noon" pause in horizon height variations until the sun lowers in the evening,   the horizon appears to rise greatly at every sunset or lower sun (when there is a midnight sun).  The process usually continues the next sunny or even cloudy days until complete melting happens.  

         From FM observation onwards the underside melt is usually observed to last gradually longer day by day,  lasting a few minutes on the first day,  eventually taking on hours as spring progresses.  From FM onwards,  sea ice may vanish if warmer air, water and sun rays focus on the colder ice column.  Once the ice gone,  the horizon may be observed lower than true astronomical horizon, this happens when surface air temperature is colder than sea surface temperature.   

     This refraction based observation method helps analyze the true nature of the sea ice to air interface - it is an instant analysis of  thermal geophysics spanning a huge distance. 

It is foremost the over all  encapsulation of the winter  climate just freshly past;      

  We look back,  and find out the significance in yearly first melt dates.                                      

2010 (top spring photo) had El-Nino during winter,   FM's don't happen earlier because it's warmer, rather a matter of all thermal physics,  from sea water, ice thickness, ice colour,   snow coverage, air temperature,  solar radiation,  cloud cover,  near surface convection/inversions, aerosols and finally the location of the Cold temperature North Pole over winter/spring.  2010 had a particular first melt aftermath,   excepting 2012,  stronger and longer than the others. Over all sea ice was thinner.    2011 (2nd from top) had nowhere as warm a winter as 2012,  the first melt was captured April 15,  with following extremely consistent progressive melt periods (continuing all the way to a large minima decrease).   2012 was fascinating by earlier tendencies of near first melt occurrences by late February, it occurred on March 12, along with  subsequent regular strong melting,  as strong as 2010.   But the clue for a great sea ice melt to come is in the tendencies towards the true astronomical horizon  especially very early on.  2013 had very inconsistent post FM underside melting.   Again the first date of true astronomical horizon did not matter as much as what happens before and after the recorded date.   March 19 was early ,  but what followed marked the September  sea ice minima in advance, there was no strong consistent underside thawing,  despite regular adiabatic near refraction observations.  Another clue of a very cloudy Arctic summer to come.  Projecting the future Arctic climate more precisely requires multiple sets of different observation events.  

    2014 post mortem:

   

   April 3 2014,  no sign of any first melt,  was late compared to previous year,  local apparent noon picture (left) has just as high an horizon as 3 hours later.   Vertical vertice  horizontal lines are spaced 3.3 minutes of arc apart.   2014 was the year of the Polar Vortex made popular by weather medias.  But what mattered was the location of the coldest atmosphere in the world.  During Spring 2014,  it was right over Cornwallis Island Nunavut Canada where the pictures were taken.  

   What a difference a week makes.   I interpreted this late FM (right) as the return of burgeoning anticyclonic activity,  in part true,  but it was equally the presence of the Cold Temperature North Pole, lesser clouds and aerosols.  But subsequent daily melting was more consistent than post FM 2013.    

2015 breaking news from the sea ice horizon:

    March 26 2015, NW passage first melt with some early tendencies nearing true astronomical horizon starting 2 weeks prior.  Horizon height (left) is equal to whence the temperature of sea water and surface air was equal on september 10 2014 (right),   the same horizon height has returned announcing melting and the open iceless sea to come. 

    Next week:  the meaning of all this with respect to Northern Hemisphere coming summer weather and Arctic ice minima projection..    WD April12 ,2015