Ultra precise long range temperature forecasts, Possible, likely only with 360 degree thermally balanced observation sites.

 ~The focus on improving Global Circulation  Models need be twinned with perfecting observation sites.  

 ~Near refraction observations have basically demonstrated wide variations in thermal profiles within 3 km radius from station center.  

~  These variations are caused by local,  natural  or not,  variable thermal topography easily causing wider surface  temperature variances,  making longer ranging  predictions almost impossible at unbalanced sites.

  Well known for failing often 6 to 10 day NOAA temperature forecast predictions,  no need to add longer range in a few months or so *Climate projections ,  they are worse.   It is likely not the models fault,  but rather the observation site measurements greatly prone for chaotic changes by very local effects.  

   Many years local near  refraction measurements never made much sense,  here in Southwestern Cornwallis Island Canada,  they rarely match optical refraction theory.  A demonstration can be made on request.  However finally,   after careful analysis ,  they match infrequently.   This is because Cornwallis Island Nunavut is surrounded by 4 different Straits,  having 4 different ice fields or depending on the season,  daily changing open water configurations.  The topography is also mixed,  from plateau 200 meter above sea level,  higher to where the observation site is,  46 meters ASL,  next to adjoining sea level  gravel beaches some 3 km away.  

    This means that locally funneled winds may carry greater influence by either of the said sea Straits ,  or these same winds may be curbed in mesoscale eddies,  not at all having identical thermal nature as direct winds coming from a larger circulation macro scale.    Therefore it turns out that optical near refraction data,  as explained by measured lapse rates,  or by any given day modeled temperature profile,  almost never match theory.  Or does so by an incredible,   about less than 10% of the time  (more precise data forthcoming).    In other words,  this observation Cornwallis site in question,  is very poor in representing the major temperature event of the moment.  

    I have no doubt,  thousands of observation sites used for models all over the world,  give identical results.  

    It is therefore not wise to use thermally imbalanced weather station sites,  for determining model accuracy,  but rather the focus should be on comparing model forecasts at sites which have no local thermal perturbations baked in their topography.  

    The best sites would be:  A buoy in the middle of the Atlantic, or a large lake, a station in the middle of a flat prairie without any major thermal altering sources,  something at a great distance away from a chaotic interfering geographical or fauna feature capable of changing the local  thermal weather pattern.  In the Arctic,  such sites are possible,  not common,  however there is always a lake, a river or a mountain about,  temperature variances may easily change a few hundred meters away.  

     Wherever possible,  identifying thermally balanced stations may help elucidate the real precision of weather models,  I expect them to be very good,  but trying to match temperature predictions with thermally unbalanced sites would be more ideal,  only after  determining the models precision capacity with observation locations as thermally balanced as possible.   I wont be surprised if the 6 to 10 day temperature forecasts are much more precise at such measuring points.  WD January 2,  2023

    

 

 

Ice on Mars equator, rather permafrost is everywhere on the red planet, Eh2r success story, bad news for another theory though.

 ~First suggested here 8 years ago,  permafrost was detectable without drilling on Mars.  

  On BBC recent report you can see meteorite crater confirm ice below ground:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mg95vY10WSo

of a news article already almost a year old:

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/27/science/mars-meteorites-impacts-seismic.html

  .....   only confirms what EH2r research has discovered years ago:

https://eh2r.blogspot.com/2018/12/mars-insight-landing-spot-suggests-not.html

and here some 8 years ago:

https://eh2r.blogspot.com/2015/04/how-to-find-underground-frozen-water-on_25.html 

   It is gratifying to realize that no digging was needed by humans,   Mars surface is unlivable,  but by just watching, observing, something we refraction researchers do all the time. 

        Refraction studies do overlap or very closely resemble space time studies.   Of which Dark Matter or Dark Energy,  has a huge observation problem,  we don't see any hint of this huge content of theoretical mass.  Of which gravitational lensing,  ably explained by Einstein equations,  was confirmed by a solar eclipse.  Dark matter and energy has no such equivalent.   Consider all the trillion stars covering our sky,  the very minute exact position they maintain,  never changing position in the slightest,  despite the observer,  ie any telescope on earth or in space,  constantly moving through space.   Many stars should be slightly moving ever so now and then,  given the massive presence of Dark Matter.  

      In light of this EH2r Mars successful permafrost observation confirmation,  and the power and dominance of -observing- in science,  I don't give much time for the Dark Matter and Energy theories not to be considered plausible in the very least.....WD November 13, 2022.  

Major shift in Sea Ocean Warming affecting everything

 

 ~Extreme warning of North Atlantic and Pacific part of,  or cause of ,  or part & cause of worldwide major climate shifts.

~  With some positive effects,  in part saving Arctic sea ice from utter decimation from the clouds they create.

~While negative consequences are documented in nearly daily extraordinary weather catastrophes

  I believe that this recent NOAA sst anomaly map explains it all.  A powerful La-Nina has had a hard time forming,  Arctic sea ice has had a hard time melting more as it should and the major pressure position patterns of global circulation,  all got flummoxed,  thrown out the comprehension window,  because we are now literally in a new climate age.  The one with near permanent warmer ocean regions.   As expected by EH2r projection, Arctic sea ice melt was greater than last year,  but nowhere near 2012 all time low extent minima.  As expected the AI weather outlooks came through,  nice for a change,  except for more rain in some regions,  this can be easily explained by warmer ocean sea surface temperatures,  not so easy to describe their location causations,  near permanent hot zones,  in the past usually with greater degree of variances:

  We remember variation of sea surface temperatures still during a recent warming time,  but in retrospect,  even in 2013 the emplacements of near permanent warming ocean regions were starting to be in place.  

     So now,  we must consider the new world weather order,  in the recent past, so much often eagerly denied by climate skeptics, surely presently not eating humble pie,  face saved by being in this age of many people choosing whom to believe,  rather than deciding or trying to find out what is really going on.  The images such as above,  need no rocket scientists to explain.  WD September 3,  2022

 

STABLE; why the Cold Temperature North Pole matters

 ~At any given day of the year the CTNP is the prime circulation mover

~Where all weather systems spins around it

~When it is weak,  hardly anything moves

~This highlights the importance of Arctic sea ice,  the world would be dramatically different without it.

Look carefully at GOES 16 IR system movements,  over Cuba and Gulf of Mexico the weather seems steady for a period of 2 days,  however over Hudson Bay the weather systems move a little more consistently Eastwards.  The further away from the CTNP the slower the circulation,   therefore this weather, as forecasted beginning of May here on EH2r,  has come through as expected.

   Of which June 26 center of coldest air in the world is :

In the SE quadrant of Russia side of the North Pole,  as far from Florida as it gets,  this center wobbles

like a top on top of the world.   Influencing a temperature differential of far lesser  importance than during winter,  30 Centigrade less important while during winter this surface temperature difference is in excess of 60 C.   The weather systems slow move during summers,  giving either greater droughts or floods wherever the systems stagnate.  Absent sea ice the situation will be very much more severe,  Therefore a New World Weather order is rising,  not on Earth in millions of years,  when nothing much will move during summer,  causing the most severe extreme weather most humans may not desire.  So far sea ice is on schedule to be even less prominent,  slowly ,  summer by every next summer,  with the known consequences experienced all over the world.   WD June 26 2021

Arctic Basin switchover time , about to happen very much on schedule

~Sea ice melt pond data is scarce,  but from long presence of Gyre Anticyclone it is assumed that there are many

~The effects of about to disappear circulation will be compounded by the effects of the coming one

CMC June 12 12 UTC surface prog:

 The sliding of the North Pole cyclone to the Arctic Basin Gyre location seems apt to be more permanent.  

The repositioning of the CTNP's poised to be at the Pole except for North Alaska,  which will get a North Pole Upper Air flow,  all indicate a near permanent Cold Temperature North Pole at the North Pole... 

Melt Ponds are a key factor determining the extent of melt damage done to sea ice early on the melt season.  They are hard to detect,  but this can be done indirectly:

   The black spots on on JAXA/ Bremen AMSR2 have likely melt ponds.  especially twinned with snow depth:

June 12 Climate Reanalyzer  snow depth seems to infer melt ponds pretty much along the coasts devoid of snow.   Although  radar PV photos are more nebulous:

June 10 North of Inuvik Beaufort sea nebulous cloud haze like image seem to indicate wide area of melt ponds.

     As far as sea ice is concerned,  the Low pressure over Arctic Ocean Gyre will shape the over all sea ice melt picture pretty much as I expect,  however slow sea ice extent seems to vanish is an illusion of sorts, the damage from the long presence of anticyclone allowing more sunshine was done,   any further massive storm will bring out near future fissures and exacerbate the melt process further especially late July.  WD June 12, 2022

Rogue Vortice special Real effects

 ~As the pressure switchover looms,   the Polar Vortex fades in grandeur

~But as such many Rogue Vortices are created

~One May 31 Rogue gave some special effects

A Typical GOES satellite Infra Red picture loop,  May 31  2022 look at the center cloud circulation,  towards the South East,  nothing much to look at.  Until you look at the surface prog,  turns out the clouds are turning the wrong way:

Red X marks the spot,  the surface isobaric flow opposes the movement of clouds.  But the culprit is a Rogue Vortice from the ever shrinking Polar Vortex:

This Vortice is breaking away from the amorphous mangled Polar Vortex really centered in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago (CAA) , this Labrador Vortice  at center is -10 C quite cold for this time of the year.   Again from a sign that the North CAA Cold Temperature North Pole is not done yet:

June 2 2022 700 mb -26 C over Cornwallis Island ,  quite cold CTNP,   The switch over is not in yet,  still on sched,  because its so cold there, for about mid June.  Note the -10 C Labrador Vortice gone,  because Rogues don't last long but their effects give lasting memories.  WD June 3 2022

EH2r Projection bang on, Arctic Basin Pressure switchover appears to be late

~Apparently not many are aware of this precision in predictions way in advance.

~But then again nobody uses the sun disk as a thermometer, hopefully in time this will change

~Eh2r predictions from multiple observations is looking really good,  in all aspects except for sea ice extent

~Nevertheless its exciting (for at least 30 followers)  when a deep Arctic circulation system is understood,  in essence Arctic temperatures dictate all weather movements Southwards 

18 UTC CMC surface prog May 6 (1025 mb High over Arctic Ocean Basin), 18 and 20, 2022,  look a likes.   to this projected May 1:

Eerily similar isn't it?      The main player is the giant C  in purple,  the Cold Temperature North Pole of the Polar Vortex.   Is cold,  but small,  but really cold:

  CMC 700 mb May 21 at 1200 UTC,  -30 C over Eureka,  Ellesmere Island Canada, wow that is cold but covering a small area.  However this fuels a stable surface High pressure over the Arctic basin,  but soon,  about mid June a dramatic pressure system switchover will occur,  a Low pressure will replace the Arctic Basin High pressure,  because,  Eureka will be very warm!  Last few years this projected switch came earlier.  The present steady circulation picture,  implies vaster areas of sea ice melt ponds,  spelling doom for it,  which seems to be fairing the usual bad,  but not a terrible melt pace yet,  again this will look much worse come late July,  worser than last few years.  Even if persistently cloudy,  and so goes the sea ice non recovery,  whereas climate is totally a key player.  The unstoppable Arctic warming continues even during LaNina period,  usually implying a cooling to take place,  but foiled again by Greenhouse gases.  WD May 21 2022

Very rare coincidence? EH2r projection in sync with most models.

 ~Sometimes AI gets it right

~EH2r projection just made in previous article really close to NOAA model even the Alaska bit

NOAA June July August  summer outlook,  amazingly in sync with EH2r summer 

projection,  in essence a wet SE USA and very hot Western USA,  along with little bit of Alaska.  

If there is no significant seasonal Arctic summer of old,  ie,  a much warmer Arctic,  there should be

very little circulation further South.  This implies the US desert weather to expand, also with practically Synoptic transport of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico, alleviation of super heating by reason of cloud cover.

   But not is all perfect with mega computers:

This AER May forecast misses the recent  CTNP ,  Cold Temperature North Pole hovering about the Canadian Arctic Archipelago and the one existing North of central Siberia,   nothing is perfect  for AI, almost  human,  but to contrast,  human intuition trumps millions of calculations per second,  almost every time.   WD May 2 2022

Annual spring summer autumn circulation and weather projections deduced by mainly unorthodox means

 ~Amazing unusual past winter observations, from beginning to end

~Wild variances in Arctic climate was the main feature

~LaNina so mild not important as much as ENSO  trending warm or cold

~Unfamiliar sudden changes in Arctic weather patterns are rapidly becoming the norm

  The objective of this exercise is to see how much I understand weather dynamics in relation to geophysical observations lasting throughout the High Arctic autumn,  the long night and spring.   If I understand what happened well, I might have a very good idea what will become later.  

Prognosis

    A rapid prognosis of past autumn and winter is essential,  strangely ENSO pattern appears regular since summer 2020:

January 2021 mild La-Nina bottomed  likewise January 2022,  summer 21 was trending El-Nino but reversed course suddenly.  While from its peak warmth ENSO trended La-Nina just as fast as previous warming.  During that time in the Arctic ,  something very unusual happened,  it was very warm and more cloudy .  October 2021 was extremely, so much so ,  sea ice extent freeze-up rebound 

stalled greatly. Like clockwork,  ENSO trended El'Nino similar to exact period in 2021, 

and eerily similar La-Nina trend struck,  however this times  La-Nina trend was in part responsible  for a very dramatic Arctic cooling,  because of cloud scarcity.  Keep in mind that winter 2021-22 was trending very warm, with super high tropopause heights,  along with adiabatic lapse rates similar to summer weather. When

the clouds cleared by mid March,  the tropopause dropped in altitude by 5 Km!  With more normal adiabatic lapse rates..   This sudden change in course of winter  a key feature, because sun disks were bigger in February than at end of April.  Reflecting the turn of events further, the Cold Temperature North Pole appeared strong for the first time of winter over the Canadian Arctic Archipelago, long did it last over Northern Siberia till February  Not only did this CCA coldest vortice in the Northern Hemisphere became steady but had more pronounced features than past several years,  from 2018 throughout 2020 the CTNP over the CAA was strong,  this year had the most prominent features.

With this in mind,  it may seem difficult to project ahead,  but it isn't,  mainly because refraction observations, not seen since 2016,  the strongest El-Nino year in history,  was surpassed in sun disk sizes until  La-Nina trending went full swing.  Not only that,  First Melt under the sea ice,  a feature detected by refraction means,  was strong and consistent from early April onwards,  equally similar to same time 2016,   suggesting very thin ice twinned with a lesser thinner snow cover. 

   In essence 2022 projection should be very similar to 2021, if forgetting the late winter colder atmosphere, the incredible warm start of winter from clouds, so many unusual cloudy days , which of course implies warmer weather.  This is known,; there is a smaller intense cooling at Spring start,  this cooling should trigger sea ice melting ponds,  because of the clear skies,  implying very few clouds, also means a dramatic upswing in sea ice surface snow melting from mid May onwards.  This late in winter super organized CTNP vortice is not going away quickly.  But,  will drag heat and moisture from the real weather maker rivaling ENSO, the North Pacific warm temperature blob,  this cloud and rain maker or booster is seriously changing the North American summer Arctic ,  which has been experiencing rain like in temperate zones. Even if  the coming Pacific extra clouds help shade sea ice from  strong sun rays,   rain can devastate sea ice almost just as much.  

Projections:

May 1 to about July 15   

Circulation pattern largely like 2021  except 3 CTNP zones, major one  will hover over the Canadian Arctic Archipelago (Big C in purple).   Arctic Ocean basin High  pressure will last longer this year, because it exists from extreme cold conditions,  even if the CTNP is small in extent,  the Arctic Ocean Gyre driving anticyclone  is in a good place to last, because of weather dynamics.  The coldest air will be over the CAA until snow cover melts,  then,  a surprise awaits,  the permafrost didn't have a lot of cooling over the long night,  this means that sea ice will be the greater heat sink.    The Basin High will generate melting ponds likewise to 2008.  

July 15   To August 15

The modest La-Nina just past may have only added to the warming of the North Pacific blob in warm temperatures,  likewise it will help maintain a steady supply of rain to the NW Canadian Alaskan coast, especially clouds for the Canadian Arctic.   What is left of the Polar jet stream (in green) will eventually vanish for a while,  even when remnants of the jet is about, further Southwards weather will be stable in nature,  sluggish in movement,  prone to very hot in duration heat waves,  and  rainy periods for SE USA.  Emphasis on heat waves making the headlines  rather than rain though.   The Arctic Basin pressure system switchover,  although late,  will have a Cyclone loving cold ice, in the wake of a gyre driving anticyclone.  This cyclone favors less dumping of sea ice towards the Atlantic, but sea ice damage was already done, flushed out to Atlantic by the Gyre anticyclone lasting much longer than usual, also it helped adding thousands of extra ice surface water puddles,  making sea ice very vulnerable even if this steady in place cyclone shields most sun rays.    Like 2021,  the CTNP will hover at the North Pole , while Siberia will bake strongly again.  Swift changing weather pattern of NW Europe , will also slow to  crawl  as was summer 2021.  Not as fast moving weather systems, may be detrimental depending on what it does,  like extensive rainy periods causing damage.

August 15 to September 25

The return of a bit of a Polar jet stream will come as the sun lowers to elevations not so warming,  the Cold Anticyclone will be nearer Greenland as to hug what sea ice remains.  Siberian Cold Temperature North Pole will faintly appear, along with North Greenland and Ellesmere Island cold temperature vortice.  Note the vortices help form the north Pole anticyclone.  while this North Pole High grows,  a North Atlantic High will extend Southwards,  making the East North American coast vulnerable to hurricanes.  Most of sea ice will appear to melt suddenly  later than usual,  and the rebound freeze up will be very sluggish.

Arctic Sea ice minima

Estimated sea ice extent at minima,  sort of a mix result similar to 2007 and 2016.  The areas away from the steady hovering  mid summer gyre cyclone will suffer great ice loss especially North of central Siberia and North of Beaufort sea.  Due to earlier puddles and hot air advection from continental heat waves. Unlike  2021 Minima,  I'd expect more melting close to 2012 record,  primarily because Arctic lands will warm faster this year especially on the Canadian side of the Pole. WD May 1, 2022. 

 

Voyage at Center of Cold Temperature North Pole, temperatures decreased as the rest of the Northern World warmed

~All the latest exciting discoveries were encapsulated in the first 2 weeks of April 2022

~  As the Northern Hemisphere warmed,  the Polar Vortex shrunk with extending outwards waves,  while the CTNP gradually returned to central Canadian Arctic Archipelago (CAA), making it deeply colder compared to 2 weeks prior.

~Vertical sun disks shrank accordingly,  but also had some expanded sun disks, meaning Cold Temperature North Poles have very small horizontal extents.  

~Absolutely astounding reversal of tropopause heights were noticed as well,  the tropopause at CTNP center can be as low as 5 km.

The Canadian Arctic  literally got colder as Spring progressed under the higher sun,  how exactly does this happen?  600 mb altitude closely represents the temperature of the entire troposphere.  The loop above show the only area not affected by southward waves of extended cold air,  the center of the PV, deepened in cooling,  where the atmosphere literally shrank in altitude as well,  the CAA tropopause in March was often at 10 km in altitude or higher,  by April 15 it was as low as 5.7 km (if not much lower).   Hence, a warming world can still have areas of deep cold temperatures.  In this latest event,  it was the circulation stability at CAA which enabled greater freezing temperatures.  Further South, the tip of Polar Vortex extended branches,  waves,   also caused multiple rogue vortices, which are weather entities capable of causing chaos,  simply because they cool substantially moisture rich air basking in the Sub Arctic.   At center of CTNP is like a voyage of exploration, where upon the observer remained steady.   It turns out. The center of a CTNP is not perfectly round like the eye of a hurricane,  but rather,  much like the Polar Vortex wavy shape,  rather a mini version,  I say that because vertical sun disks at CTNP center are irregular,  suggesting the horizontal core of CTNP column is amorphous,  which may have a deeper connection with the very shape of the Polar Vortex.   It was a unique privilege to be at at center of coldest air in the world,  it is not like many may imagine,  it was not cold, rather warmish, caused by the sensation calm surface winds do,  the CTNP was for a while at center of a low pressure,  which is fascinating, 

there was no other major detectable hint of it aside from sun disk anomalies.  WD April 17 2022