Polar Vortex 2019, record cold weather in some parts of the Northern Hemisphere, an explanation

~The key in explaining is found in Global Warming
~And the clues abound all around
~Main bit of evidence starts from the ground.


   I leave the NY Times deal with the struggle to explain basic science dismantled by ignorant politicians.   But the Times  also have ably described the return of a particularly cold dreaded Polar Vortex,  which unbeknown to many Americans,  has visited Canada a couple of times already (some parts of Canada's neighborhood as  well).  In a truly normal winter,  say pre 1990's,  a cold wave would have hit Florida by now,  instead of slowing down its Southward advance at the 'wall' of a warmer USA.    The question still lies,  why so much colder?

University of Maine 2 m temperature basically displays  as cold surface air South of the Canadian Arctic as in the Arctic.  

Just how it gets so cold south of the Arctic is relatively easy to deduce considering 2 geophysical factors: snow or especially less or none,  cloud extent and especially few or none......

  Here is the biggest indice: December 2018 was warm,  very warm,  with the Cold Temperature North Pole in Northern Russia.  Warmer in winter can only mean less snow on the ground especially in the great continental interior lands.  

     The latest cutting edge refraction observations have revealed the main reason  why this  years vortex gathered strength even if not expansive:  less snow on the ground.  This has been observed optically,  all confirmed with thermistors.  The heat capacity of soil is less than air,  thus soil barely covered by snow during days with very low sun elevations twinned with lesser cloud extent, guaranties rapid cooling.   These two geophysical facts feedback on each other,      colder air implies less snow,  no winter clouds provides colder air.   These two create anticyclones,  long lasting high pressures during winter darkness create incredible cooling.

  This January 29 2019 CMC IR picture gives an idea of how much snow on ground there is,  not much throughout North America.

              There is less snow in North America than Eurasia,  it is to date,  a meek snow cover year. 

       Rogue vortices spin away from the Polar Vortex especially when the Vortex is stretched thin,  which is also what is happening.  The essential look of 2019 is a much warmer Alaska continuously warmed by the Pacific sst Blob cyclones,  which turned the jet stream strait towards Chicago,    only now we have a gathering of much colder air which took a month or so to gain extent and to permeate heavily populated areas.   WD January 28 2019

  

Mars Inversion moisture trap, insulation power keeping water from escaping to space

~ESA great capture of trapped in a crater ice infers a lot of water on Mars
~The trap is a cooled atmospheric interface,   much similar to what sea ice does
~No sea ice,  none or far weaker inversions,  less sea ice possible as a result

ESA composite picture of a Mars North Pole crater called Korolev,  has amazingly similar sea ice features on Earth, likely there is snow as well.  But the greatest feature,  the reason why there is frozen water  in the North Polar Martian region,  is exactly the same as the over abundance of ice near Earth Poles:  inversions.   Remove the inversion,  and massive sublimation occurs,  because there is an inversion,  the moisture in air is trapped within a shallow layer,  reducing the possibility of sublimation especially if the atmosphere is near 100% saturated with water vapor.    Korolev crater gives the impression that there is a great deal of water in Martian underground.   But this moisture has very little chance of staying within an atmosphere 95% CO2.   We can see here something equally similar to the disappearance of glaciers on Earths polar regions:

We can see here evidence of recently evaporated/sublimated smaller snow glaciers by the lighter soil colors,   Mars soil is mainly oxidized red,  suggesting rust,  small glaciers remove contact with the atmosphere, after time they likely strip the top rust by small calving process,  but once the small glacier evaporates/sublimates,  it leaves behind its imprint.  Arctic rock strewn lands having small glaciers exhibit exactly the same feature,  except Arctic small glaciers are disappearing very rapidly,  they leave behind a lighter rock surface color for much shorter time periods ,  unlike Mars .13% oxygen content,  Earth's atmosphere is rich in  Oxygen.    Further evidence of snow on top of ice can be seen here:

        Snow or ice crystal drifts can be seen in this ESA's Mars Express topographic image.
Within the thin inversion ice crystals likely fall back to the surface and sublimate upwards in an endless process similarly within a closed climatic system,  over a long period of time falling ice crystals may gather high insulating the ice further.   WD December 25, 2018

Mars InSight landing spot photos suggest not so deep permafrost

~Atmospheric refraction of a CO2 atmosphere is probably visible,  more dedicated photos are required though.
~First photographic hints at very slight horizon refraction
~Given the thinness of the atmosphere, much of this of course was expected,  but further very serious photography should be undertaken.

    Mars has a 6 mb atmosphere,  169 times less weighty than on Earth.  Not many refraction specialists believe it capable of causing some atmospheric mirages,  but near the horizon,  the game changes, at that level,  we look at a much thicker atmosphere.  Consider what we always knew,  Mars landscape looked carved by water ever since a closer telescopic look at the planet was achieved.   Now that we have access to a probe capable of staying still,  by refraction optics we can see if there is any ice permafrost,  which can give a spectacular effect similar to sea ice horizons on Earth.

     Ice and Martian soil should have different specific heat capacity,  ice has most certainly  a greater heat capacity, which means that it affects the soil right over it,  in particular,   when the cloudless sunny sky  hits a pure rocky outcrop,  the air right above warms up rapidly,  this may cause a "road mirage"  like on Earth,  however subtle likely so on Mars, but none heard of so far.   Examples here show no rapid lowering,  a sure sign of a permeating factor.  Here we study the Martian horizon,  by NASA design from a probe not moving around all over the place:

NASA InSight December 5 and 7 2018 .  15:27  and at 11:34 local mean solar time respectively,  the 5th has greater shadow to the right.  The robotic arm has likely moved around, and is placed back not always exactly  in this same resting spot.   The pictures are aligned,  with your mouse pointer, verify carefully the positions of nearest rocks,  now look at the horizon.  Point your mouse at any point on the horizon line,  you will see the darker image having a very slightly higher horizon throughout.  The darker image is nearest local noon, with warmest sun effects,  was likely taken with an optical filter.  If there is near surface permafrost the horizon should eventually lower,  in this case the horizon lowered perhaps further and is now rising towards the near noon height, meaning the ground horizon has sea ice properties,  namely frozen water....

  Experience on Earth dictates:  top of sea ice warms enough to lower the horizon after local apparent noon, given no great weather change,   this usually happens a few hours after noon.  The brighter image here is at 3:27 PM usually at about the same time when the sea ice horizon reaches lower point on Polar Earth.

     CO2 Martian atmosphere may cause different refraction effects,  namely 95% CO2 concentration surely gives a great  warming potential,  so the surface should warm really rapidly when the sun rises, again a dry rocky substratum horizon should lower at local apparent noon,  not take a few hours as on Earth.  Which as we know,   on any given sunny day without much great weather circulation,  noon is not the warmest time of day.

   A rudimentary model using refraction index of CO2 gas,  incidentally greater than air at standard pressures and temperatures,  calculates a very small shrinking of the vertical sun disk equally at  the horizon.  However,  the interplay between Martian soil, permafrost and CO2 atmosphere is novel,  more studying is needed.  WD December 9 2018

North American West Coast healthy rainy seasons need normal sea ice extent

~ Long ignored sea ice climate permutations manifest big time

~ We look at mainly the North Pacific

~ Current El-Nino can only exacerbate bent Northwards general circulation 

   Although its pleasant climate has apparently nothing to do with ice and snow, there is a rainy season in sunny L.A.  California,  having everything to do with a colder climate to the North.   Through long time late autumn  cycles,  the North got significantly cold mainly because Siberia and Alaska was imbued in longer dark days creating a net lost heat to space.    But sea ice cover within Arctic Ocean  and very North Pacific is an equivalent to land,  also greatly cooled the North,  absent sea ice ,  replaced by warmed sea water,  winter's cold punch  has dulled,  especially since 2007,  but very much seriously lately:

NOAA November 12 2018 sst anomalies  Further North, they call it the blob,  the great North Pacific surface warming has a lot to do with the lack of cooling during winter,  because there is a feedback loop between less sea ice extent and more low clouds.  Even less radiation leaving to space favors the presence of huge Cyclones :  

The implied late autumn black line should be the location of the polar jet stream given the latest sea ice extent losses.  Fortunately often present massive North Pacific cyclones bend the jet to its South (red line),  but this means the North Pacific is covered with clouds for vaster periods,  not cooling the sea surface to space.  This also implies a shift in rainy season of the West North American coast,  well Northwards,  this current climate scene was not always so  :

  Given a normal sea ice scenario,  pre 1998,  a shift in the Polar jet stream well to the South of its latest decadal tendencies  gave the recorded fall and winter  coastal rainy seasons climate which was importantly wetter than latest recent years.   WD November 15 2018

Major Polar Vortex rearrangement

~Siberia gets back it's freezing mojo
~Canadian Arctic Upper Air is remarkably warm
~A confluence of wider Arctic Ocean open water and thinner North of Greenland sea ice killed the great Canadian  Arctic Archipelago super cold vortex of 2018 about 10 days ago
~Asymmetric in size Arctic Polar vortex consequences for winter 18-19

09 0000 UTC CMC 700 mb chart with colour ( by me),  blue zone -20 to -25 C,  pink -25 to -30,  red below -30 C.    Demonstrates a great disparity in coldest  temperatures between North America and Eurasia,  Siberia regained its famed coldest weather in the Northern world.   While the North American side will undoubtedly be varnished with a much warmer winter with strange Polar Vortex rogue vortices causing sudden extreme weather events.    Such example is happening now,  a midwest North American vortice  formed colder than anything currently  in the Arctic,  it is not a cold from the Arctic blast,  it is a very exotic,  I would say interesting,  rogue vortice which will cause havoc over a much larger Anerica basking in above average weather.    On the other continent,  if this is the coming winter Polar Vortex arrangement,   UK, Scandinavia and Moscow will be wet like London of old.  While Japan and Alaska will benefit with much warmer and yes wet weather. 

   As far as sea ice is concerned,  it was to blame for this climate rearrangement.  In near total darkness CAA never really got a chance to go deep cold,  because there was no Arctic Basin deep long night enhanced cooling, stopped by unprecedented open water North of Greenland,  which became thinner,  but still  releasing more heat ,  contributing in tandem with a once near 1 million km2 square wider open water  heat release bonanza ultimately decimating the great North American Vortex of 2018 ,  it nearly lasted a year.    The current  pumping of Pacific blob sea surface heat is reaching to near Greenland,  greatly impeding a strong Canadian vortex to form.    This new climate scene will cause a different ice accretion geographic distribution,  already drastically warming Bering sea area, no accretion ,  and cooling further  the North Pole (needed accretion),    the latter has sea ice already in place,  the former has open water not to freeze so fast....WD November 9 2018

2018 sea ice refreeze is identical to melting to minima in reverse slow motion

~Today's 2018 JAXA extent is #1 lowest within historical record

~Since minima refreeze pattern almost exact melting in reverse

~There is no doubt that fresh less dense surface melt water is necessary for more rapid refreeze

 JAXA 13 to 19 October extent map closely resembles the melt process flipped backwards,  Fram Strait is overwhelmed with easy flowing sea ice from the trans polar current reformed and re-ignited  along with the  Central Arctic Basin  gyre.    Even with Fram surface waters really warm the ice cover gets renewed daily,  in short a more normal ice dumping scene with much warmer water:

Elsewhere  October 21 CMC SST's are still quite warm,  it takes -1.8 C water for sea water to freeze.  Despite greater darkness 0 C waters North of East Siberian sea is astounding,  the Atlantic front ice border remains stable and Bering Chukchi seas super warmed waters guaranty a further slower refreeze,  which makes this map interesting:

   A JAXA back to the future moment,  but we are currently 29 days away from minima,  as opposed
to this 19 days remove sep 3 JAXA eerily similar map to today absent Fram Strait.  The CAB is not refreezing well largely because of great cloud coverage and very warm sst's,  which gives a surface temperature feedback loop of warming.  These two factors made 2018 overall #1 lowest extent especially along with very thinned central CAB sea ice, made perfectly obvious by the presence of nearly permanent Arctic Ocean overcast with clouds and the lack of an anticyclone over the North Pole,  which always happened in the past at the start of the long Arctic night.  The biggest news is for larger populations further South,  an abnormal winter awaits them. 

CMC October 24,  sign of compaction in North Pole to Greenland sector, with finally a High pressure,  an extension first  originating from the Canadian Archipelago South.  A very unusual,  unique,  very loose pack North Greenland sea ice was present throughout end of melting season.  Now we can attest,  this anomaly has largely frozen over.   A North Pole High following Minima usually means the start of winter,   about 3 weeks late. 

WD October 21,  last GIF October 24, 2018

Fram Strait sea ice melting Van Gogh style

~Long without action Fram strait appears to melt incoming sea ice rapidly
direct contact with +2 C water ,  cooled a bit from a summer of continuous warming.

Sea water right into the melt zone by any standards extremely warm,  therefore giving images like this: 

We have a look at apparently rapid melting,  at least for this time of the year,  with equally fast Southwards flowing sea ice as seen October 4 ,  the goodbye waves here are definitely artistic and
different than slow melting type as reported with previous article.  Warm surface sea water +2 C awaits any arrivals.  wd October 9, 2018

Slow melting Goodbye Waves examples

~ 78 N 176 W very slow melting made obvious by individual Goodbye Waves readily identifiable day by day.

~   The waves in this case seem to stream over fresh melted less saline colder sea water.

    This JAXA portion of melt area is very interesting,   JAXA October 4 and 5 has more sea ice than NASA captures,  that is not new,  but here we see the likelihood that Goodbye Waves are melting over less saline recently melted  sea water,  not really warmed by significant sunlight.

   There is melting,  but not so fast , October 1 to 5 NASA EOSDIS,  we look especially at left waves
breaking down slowly.  We also see a day by day variation in the main pack compacting a little but really moving,   still individual waves are recognizable,  a large contrast to not so long ago melting when the waves disappeared or were impossible to identify from one day to next.   WDOctober 5 2018

Powerful Arctic Ocean heat feeds the dipole engine

~The great minimum stall of 2018 highlights

Not seeming warm +3 C sst near New Siberian Islands has some localized impact .  Remember local average temperatures for the 2 guys living on Kotelny (the largest) Island is -11 C in October. No doubt the once much warmed East Siberian sea is still giving off some heat.  

   We look at New Siberian Island Novaya Sibir to the upper right on September 27 covered with snow,  nothing unusual,  however lost most of its new snow on October 2.   To the left is pack ice moving towards this Island:

   October 2's,  2007 to 2018 , since 2007 Novaya Sibir Island was always covered with snow onwards....

   Oct 4 2007,  a clearer view,  to date,  Oct 4 2018 same Island is snowless.  

            Meanwhile since Minimum date,  North Atlantic Front is nearing 85 North.  JAXA September 23 October 3 2018.   

Open water towards 85 North at October's gate

    The Atlantic front East of Spitsbergen is also advancing Northwards.  It is probably the slowest overall refreeze since 2012.  There is likely some freezing  but also a great daily variance in extent due to floating snow and possibly some melting,  needing to be identified in specific areas.  But here ,  the Eat Siberian bite seems unstopped in its ever slow advance,  JAXA 15 to 29 September 2018 ,  the 15th being the messiest at the top left corner.

September 26 to October 1, amazing NASA captured  melting at edge of Equinox North Pole darkness on what is the continuing advance of water towards the North from the East Siberian Sea quadrant,  with strong evidence of melting:

These Goodbye Waves,  the last phase of sea ice to water,  changed in structure day by day  September 29-30 and October 1,  it was also certainly a mix of fusion physics requiring presence of a ship confirming and observing this directly.

WD September 30, October 1  2018