Minima time rapid melting

~When most September 15's are Minima time,  sea ice in 2018 is still rapidly vanishing

NASA EOSDIS September 8-14-15 loop. 79 NORTH 180 West
Great melting has occurred when most times it should be slowed to a stop, indicating warm sea water and air effects with no possible appreciable compaction. 8 to 14 show simply melting with “goodbye waves” galore, individual packs last stand, while 14-15 comparison has differing goodby waves,
meaning different packs on their way to water. There is no doubt about strong melting very late in season.

    It is not impossible to conceive that "goodbye waves"  may be mistaken as ice packs,  as on passive microwave detectors.

   September 14 to 15 wildly different goodbye waves (left) indicate strong melting in the final phase change of differing ice packs.  Note the clouds obstructing a better view (right). 

There has been a major Arctic Ocean climate circulation change ever since
the great melt of 2012, whereas a new thinner sea ice based weather has been
firmly established. While during summer this regime is characterized by the
presence of long lasting cloud coverage favoring the presence of hovering
lingering cyclones, effectively slowing down summer time melting, this very thin ice regime
also favors more clouds during autumn and winter, whilst less melting
during summer was established,  reduced accretion during the other seasons took hold.
The net resulting effect is a slow but gradual thinning of sea ice, which
culminates to now, the minima season delayed.

WD September 15, 2018

Stealth sea surface temperatures

~Although the record high surface water temperatures may appear currently smallish
~Their influence is somehow reflected in larger area of surface air temperatures

    OK it was a long day,  so you think of having a drink of water,  but it is warm,  no problems,  add some ice and almost instant cold settles.  But the instant reading of water near surface is colder than mid to bottom, the ice hasn't had time to absorb all the heat available.  Eventually the ice melts,  and its good and refreshing to drink.  This is pretty much what is happening over the Arctic Ocean,  except remainder sea ice is a tad salty,  if all melted  less so than sea water,  so the fresher water melt settles on top, in fact density of sea water at 0 C is heavier than just melted sea ice, even sea water at 4 C would be denser than  a fresh melt at about  0 C,  how do we measure the real temperature of the sea water when such a situation exists?     Is a good question,  perhaps shall we judge it by melting sea ice action? 

   North of East Siberian Sea,  August 30,  September 13 loop,  a fair bit of melting has occurred while the sst was near 0 C next to the ice,   but very warm 3 to 4 degrees C not very further away. 

   NCEP September 9 very warm SST zones are somehow amplified as much larger surface air areas.   Scattered sea ice mixed with open water temperatures are more near or below  0 C.   Are the very warm salty sst's lurking under the fresher melt waters?   WD September 13, 2018

LATE season melting examples

~With clouds rarely absent ,  a  glimpse of pre-minima very late melting

   Extraordinary "Goodbye Waves" action,  EOSDIS September 9 and 13,  notice they differ in 4 days,  indicating different ice melting,  because a goodbye wave is a final wave of an individually distinct ice mass.  This loop confirms current active melting when the minima should have been declared, the picture with less sea ice is on the 13th.   Sea ice agglomeration density of thousands of little ice islands significantly reduced as well.

  Wrangle Island  has +9 C surface water near by,  seen top left,  during same 9-13 loop ,   all these remaining micro packs are doomed.    Notice internal melting mid extreme right. 

    We are not even dealing with compaction,  which if allowed,  would rapidly reduce sea ice extent
even more dramatically,  a considerable cyclone would do so.  WD September 13, 2018

Differing resolutions confusions

~There is a whole lot less ice than 15% extent rule 16 KM grid suggests
~We explore differing resolutions

   Despite latest reports suggesting we are at minima,  not so, at minima again,  nope,  largely because of wind system changes, despite there is still a great deal of melting going on in the Pacific side of the Pole.  However a significant Arctic Ocean air temperature dipole exists, on the other side of North Pole temperatures are colder,  the ice on Atlantic side is largely more densely compacted than the Pacific quadrant,  not so much compared to previous Septembers.

NASA EOSDIS below transect looks at the visually cloud free area within the pink area on September 10 JAXA above.  

   NASA EOSDIS September 11.   Observe significantly huge  "Goodbye Waves"  sea ice in final melting stages, we can confirm without much of a doubt that16 km grid 15% extent rule  calls all of the areas seen here covered with 100% sea ice.  However the JAXA colored map above gives a better representation at 6.25 km per grid and describes reality better than 10 km resolution  which is likely the daily JAXA numerical value:

       The 10 km grid random scan same area reveals no 14% sea ice coverage,  so it is all read as 100%. Even if water covers a grid area by 80%......  WD September 11, 2018

Again never seen before wide open water in area usually laced with thick sea ice

~WOW moment again,  2018 season is full of surprises
~Never seen before in history open water 100 nautical miles North of Ward Hunt Island

On this August 27 2018, yet another significant historical  moment,  wide open water 100 n.m. North  from the starting point  where most successful expeditions have trekked to the North Pole.  Never seen moment like this surely cause pause to experts:  

  Soon the new extreme sport will be kayaking towards the North Pole from Ward Hunt,  not skiing,  surely now made extremely tenuous.  WD August 29,2018

Message from planet Earth: look at the Poles

~Remaining 2018 Arctic sea ice pack looks strangely familiar:

Dancing with the winds sea ice, skillfully confuses extent numbers

~Misinterpreting freezing with moving

 NASA EOSDIS about centred 77 North 180 W August 20 to 27,  despite clouds we look at it move and compressing towards the right ,  then stop to only move and expand to the left,  it is a system generated melt stall,  ice was moving by anticyclone to the right,  an increasing in intensity cyclone displaces the pack to the opposite direction,  the ensuing result is this:

   The Peninsula sea ice with highest density (to the right),  moved where a lot of melting and compression has just occurred towards the left,  as such,  there will be apparent lower melt rates until the modest cyclone scattering will break the peninsula in 2.    WD August 27,2018

Slow Bye Bye of East Siberian ice peninsula is finally culminating

~ Yet, the JAXA numbers don't show this despite stunning image suggesting eminent disintegration

     What is left of the East Siberian sea ice peninsula once mighty at just past mid July :

....  Is a mere skeleton of former self:

Apparently August 24 to 25,  32,974 km2 vanished in a day,  while the new blue areas easily span more than 200,000 km2,  nevertheless,  the visual aspect is much more catastrophic than the numerical one....  While 4 km resolution makes 2018 #1,  at least in the NSIDC comparison graph given:

2018 is #1 lowest in extent compared with all years since 2014,  which I guess was the start of monitoring at 4 km grids. wd August 26 ,  2018

Slow melt rate appears on the verge to take a dive

~JAXA 45,000 km2 August 23-24 drop looks kind of smallish

  JAXA loop August 23-24 , 24 is with the darker sea ice areas,  has some very interesting aspects,  namely vast regions appearing to have much more open water,  but the drop was officially 45K.  However,   observe North of Wrangle Island vast area much larger than 100 K turning almost completely blue,  here is a good example of the 15% per 16 km square grid  rule confusing matters, 
but if the trend continues, these grids will eventually drop with ice content below 15%,  and cause quite a remarkable daily drop.  Which again will not be a huge area of  sea ice suddenly melting,  but would be the result from a long protracted melt and mixing process.  Even with this 15% rule,  the darkening of what is left of the other very large areas of the pack, signifying more open water,  didn't really show up with extent numbers,  therefore patience is required along with judgment when considering 2018 melt rates. WD August 25,2018

Excessively fluid pack along with clouds very difficult to assess

~But there are some events which are mind boggling
~Fluid movement is on all sides of pack with strong winds

 Canadian Arctic Archipelago coast was mainly closed on 13 August,  now the entire coast has opened up very rapidly in excess of 50 km wide at some points and about 1400 km long,  an area  in excess of 100,000 km2:

  Clouds make it very difficult to access exact area,  but I can see through most of it,  roughly giving:

   There are spots lesser than or more than this google earth polygon demarcation.  The speed of this opening indicates a lighter over all sea ice pack,  still laced with older sea ice, acting as sails moving the ice with any winds with ease.  WD August18,2018