Bering sea black melt potential

~2018 slow start melt season picks up not only speed but darkness
           

   From AMSR2 JAXA daily extent melt numbers July 21-22-23-24 in km2/day:

2012         2013        2014        2015         2016       2017       2018

-58703    -58133    -28828    -139308   -111030   -96509   -133995 

-51872  -106572   -50552   -107064      -55089    -93661   -139657 

-62907  -116820   -78800   -113552      -46065    -41377   -118268 

-102879  -71755   -28430   -100037     -59703      -9685   -124573

  2018 has a staggering dominating melt pace; 

At the moment, the most significant difference between 2012 and 18 melt can be seen just North of
Alaska, whereas the ice flows clockwise and counterclockwise respectively, the difference being
extensive over a long period of time warmed Bering sea waters in 18 compared to 2012 Beaufort newly exposed sea surface:

We look for "Goodbye Waves" which are pre total melting of ice over a sea surface, 2012 Beaufort sea had then very few, mainly because of sea ice drift movement dominating an apparent melting, while same date 2018: Multiple Goodbye Waves signify rapid melting is occurring very likely from much warmed sea surface WD July 24 2018

Beaufort area monster melting at present

~Sudden melting from long in duration rapid movement  of crushed sea ice with multiple leads warmed by sun rays

Last 3 days ending July 22 2018 JAXA extent depiction nothing short of  amazing,  despite partial cloudy conditions extremely fast melting is occurring easily more than 100,000 km2 in a day in this area alone.  As we can see,  with sea ice moving opposite to normal Gyre current. 

Coming with the counter clockwise gyre current is this CMC depicted +9 C sea water,  certain demise for any piece of ice. 

   And ECMWF July 27 forecast runs this water strait towards the main surviving pack.  WD July 23,2018

2012 vs 2018 on three fronts, circulation dominates, 2018 is slushier

The most interesting area is Beaufort to Bering sea:

 July 4 to 20 2012,  there was more open water over Beaufort because the Gyre circulation was largely unaffected by cyclones till August.  Note the ice pans maintaining about 100 km in diameter,  moving clockwise.

Absent Beaufort area 2018 sea ice morphology is largely similar to 2012 same period of days.  Except the circulation is counterclockwise and the majority of  surviving sea ice pans are smaller at about 50 km in diameter,  observe the slushier aspect of the ice as well,  pulverized by greater motion amongst significant open water.

 The Atlantic front difference is fascinating as well,

Atlantic Front July 17 2012,  note the ice shoreline hugging Franz Josef and Svalbard Islands,  

There is at present about a 250 km retreat towards the Pole for the entire Atlantic Front.   

 Chukchi and East Siberian seas has equally a vast difference:

2012 2017 and 2018 July 20 animation ,  2012 is the one with most sea ice,  we note 2018 incredibly warm Bering sea at some points +10 C hot.  And also the counterclockwise flow of sea ice ice right into this warmed sea.  It is a new Fram Strait by virtue of a warmer winter with no sea ice.  WD July 21 2018

2018 vs 2012 what is the difference ? about 200,000 km2 in extent

~Because Hudson and Baffin Bay + Kara sea still have not melted completely

     Kara had a late freeze up South of Novaya Zemlya  in 2018,  but still has some sea ice,  while 2012 close to 0 one day later (selected due to clouds).

Hudson + Baffin Bay with still lots of sea ice compared to 2012,  meaning the large difference is in Beaufort sea,  which as we know,  is flooded still with a continuous stream of sea ice.  WD July 19 2018

Neven blog stuff

Figure 1 final freeze season temperature anomaly,  the entire Arctic Ocean had a positive temperature anomaly much of it exceeding +5 C,  South of CAA  had a final burst very cold March April but over all had seasonal temperatures.

Figure 2,  Note high pressure zone projected exactly where it happened over NW Europe For April and May 2018.

Figure 3,  NW Europe had a bit of a shiver...

Figure 4,  the coldest air in the Northern Hemisphere  for June 2018 was centred Just North of Ellesmere Island.

  Figure 5,  Arctic Ocean surface air temperature anomaly March 15 to April 30 very positive despite claims otherwise. 

Massive Counterclockwise river of Arctic Ocean sea ice floods Beaufort sea

~All while there are at least 2 clockwise gyres or sea ice vortices near by.

We can note that the near entirety of Arctic Ocean pack is turning counterclockwise,  except about Beaufort Sea receiving a gradually thinning pack coming from Russia, before that from the North Atlantic.  There are 2 smaller clockwise Gyres North of Alaska, but the main influx of ridging is towards its shores giving the illusion that this years melt is slow.  In fact as this JAXA June 28 to July 14 animation demonstrates,  the  Central Russian open water pack has vanished because of melting and the Ostrov Komsomolets Islands and Ozera Taymyr Peninsula acting like an ice dam,  and so goes for East Siberian Islands.  Once foreseen switching back to dominant High pressure North of Alaska will return,  the compaction will be ruthless in the other turning direction.  A couple of things to note:  The Normal Arctic Ocean Gyre has been overtaken,  Banks Island no longer creates open water by its circulation,   is extraordinary that Beaufort Sea has open water at all, the source of broken up sea ice appears endless at the moment.  In addition to Beaufort sea,  new Fram Strait's are now in Chukchi and Bering seas,  the North Atlantic sea water not receiving any sea ice can only warm further for extreme melting and be on the ready for when the Gyre driven Transpolar drift resumes.WD July 15 2018 

Viewed from space dark sea ice is toast, but may last a long time

We know the sea ice formed late in Barrow Strait,  this ice was thin at maxima in May (not like overall extent of  all sea ice),  made thinner by extra snow layer. Eventually it disappeared on July 7 2018, but for a persistent thin zone South of the Island, mainly in blackish.  The older in age first year ice has greyer shades.   These surviving sheets should eventually melt and disintegrate.  So did the blacker sheet at about July 12.

    If we compare these mechanics to the larger over all sea ice areas,  we now must look for the tell tell black shade depicting thinner sea ice. WD July 16 2018

Beaufort rapid retreat met by thinning sea ice replenishment

~Super fast 140 nautical miles in 8 days
~10 .8 nautical miles a day

Top of GIF June 25 to July 8 rapid sea ice retreat is met by equally fast pack ice replenishment    But the quick velocity pack is thinning and is running out of replacement capacity.  It has been this kind of melt in this area.

The retreat in Beaufort is met by a contrarian recently created wind current in Bering sea adjoining Alaska. This creates an ever so smaller compaction block as Bering sea is warm.WD July13 2018

Hollowing from within at 80 degrees North, the untold story

~Longitude 147 degrees West
~ Severe movement is destroying the fabric of stable sea ice

    2012 greatest melt in history  , about 80 North 147 West,  more or less stable sea ice which mostly all melted at maxima.

  2012 same date and location there is movement ,  as one big unified sheet.

    Same date same frame capture but 2018,  really broken up sea ice.  This a feauture of 2018 current melt.

     With much more open water barely recognizable sea ice structures  moving individually much faster,  not at all like 2012.  A completely unstable configuration prone to absorbing more sun rays  since there is much more open water.  On record,  the 15% extent  rule makes this nearly 100% sea ice.WD July 9 2018

Sea ice extent analysis should be holistic

~Given the tools we have ,   ie the lack of proper ressources and using archaic meant for another era measuring methods,  we must study sea ice more profoundly.

2012 did not have coldest CTNP over the CAA in 20 years,  therefore a massive ice imprint,  much more significant than 2012,  as we can see,  with 2018 easily 400,000 km2 wide:

2012 sea ice same day looked emaciated and vanished. 

Before we judge 2018 extent magnificent recovery,  we must think of winter past,  when the lower CAA was really seasonally cold or colder.  Despite the entire Arctic Ocean being exposed with warmest weather. WDJuly 8 2018