Arctic Ocean circulation Switchover occurred as expected in late April projection...

~Temperature is key ,  now Arctic Cyclones are colder than High pressures.

CMC June 12 2018,  with a High now over Baffin and a low over the Arctic Ocean Gyre,    in between is the CTNP vortex,   the pressure scene has SWITCHED ,  offering some hope for sea ice with extra cloud cover.

Further a study:

What separates the High from the Low is a cold upper air zone not measured in a significant density  grid manner.  700 mb temperature and pressure heights CMC June 12, 2018 1200 UTC.

   What remains is the possibility of an Arctic Dipole,  which is a rare event at this time of great melting.      The possibility is there but requires a High over Alaska which may venture North. Mean time we must judge how fragile sea ice is by its velocity:

       Impressive speeds of sea ice drift makes for a great melt,  it is fortunately the source of open water.  Fog and cloud source at near 0 C temperatures.    WD June 12, 2018

KARA sea ice appears to have significant melting and extensive water ponds

   Kara sea next to  Russia shore has lost a lot of sea ice,  with remaining having greenish colours indicating melt ponds..  Note the 'goodbye waves' in the dark sea,  precursor sea ice just about to completely melt and merge with sea water.

Comparison with 2010-2017 makes 2018 most favorable about melting rates exceeding 2012,  the wider open dark sea water zone of 18 rivals 2010,  but is most significant causing its remaining sea ice very vulnerable.  WD June 12, 2018

Novaya Zemlya region did not have time to have thick 1.5 meters sea ice.

May 2018 PIOMAS sea ice anomaly map .  in particular we look at Western Novaya Zemlya region

     Notice the gradual red darkening indicating sea ice anomaly 1.5 m thicker than mean next to Russian motherland.....

   NASA worldview February 9. March 9,  April 9, May 9 and June 9 2018 Western Novaya Zemlya viewed from the South:

   With very little sea ice at least till mid- February,  most of the area was covered by March 9 with first year very thin fresh sea ice,  this is observed by sea current and winds easily breaking thin sea ice up especially as seen in April.  Come June there was no evidence of multi year sea ice migrations,  it is just new sea ice.  It is conservative to estimate that this ice had only 3 months to accrete, which is definitely not possible to thicken so quickly beyond 150 cm,  consider sea water temperatures usually warmer there in Barents sea as well.  Not possible at least in my experience,  I estimate its thickness to be downwards of 80 cm given the lack of consolidation,  also given a significant period of warmer surface temperatures and especially the apparent thick snow cover which masked its broken nature especially in April.

      Red 1.5 meters North East NZ having spectacular water intermix

 May 2018 flow of ice for most of the month... 

     First of all,  there is  extensive wide open water NE of NZ ,  secondly the flow is spectacularly lazy. no very extensive ridging is possible amongst open water!

WDJune 10,2018

some PIOMAS ice thicker with warmer over all weather

~Just how does sea ice get thicker when temperature anomalies are warmer?
~The snow conundrum is suggested


  WE look back Novaya Zemlya area wide open water mid October 2017

     Much clouds but little or no sea ice...


   Then we take NOAA daily composites and calculate surface temperature anomalies:

As I recall,  it was much warmer most of winter North Central Russia Arctic Ocean area ,  mostly more than +6 C warmer,  mean temperatures would have been higher was it not until end of winter cooling.  

Yet the ice is supposedly substantially thicker,  I wonder what would do that?  

But more snow of course,  although there are no measurements for wide areas of the Arctic,  precipitable Daily Composites water gives an idea.  There is most likely more snow on the sea ice in the areas where the sea ice is proposed to be thicker,  it would of course delay its melting,  but also likely mask its thickness.  

A closer June 8 2018 look at the same ice area reveals broken up ice pans,  many areas held together by the fragile glue of very thin sea ice caused by a late winter freeze up...

WD June 8,2018

Pacific and Atlantic sea ice fronts most receded compared to 2012-17

~  Is there any wonder why sea ice is in dire shape after more than a month of Gyre reinforcing steady anticyclone?

~All significant fronts show current devastation greater than same date 2012!

From excellent NASA worldview archives:

 Atlantic front 2018 #1 melting position compared to 2012-2017

Beaufort sea, 2018 close to #1 shared with very warm 2016 and similar in circulation 2017.   

2018 Pacific region #1 receded sea ice very significant given solar

forcing on the much darker already very warmed because of less winter sea ice Bering Sea.  In retrospect 2013 was a very interesting year,  despite a constant cyclone over the gyre area,  this current still turned clockwise.  

  No matter what will happen,  although I have a very good projection of what will occur, the very greatly enhanced Arctic Ocean gyre current will devastate sea ice by compaction till sea ice minima comes.  wd,  June 6 2018

Possible Arctic Ocean Gyre pressure switchover date modeled, but questions remain

~ECMWF  projects a Low over the Arctic Ocean gyre area

~  Latest sun data contradicts some of its forecast

  We start with Greenland Melt extent being very quiet:

If there is a great cold atmosphere area to the West of Greenland,  it would certainly affect its melt rate.  It is so.

   The latest sun data seems to indicate a stubborn cold zone at least 140 km wide in diameter,  this because of limitations of a high sun , 20 degrees in elevation,  which refraction method helps measure,  covering a smaller atmospheric transect.  Not long ago it was 400 km wide.... 

At any rate,  the CAA upper atmosphere is very cold,  perhaps more so than reported to ECMWF:

   The sudden ECMWF drop in pressure height over the Canadian Arctic Archipelago by June 9 is the only question over this forecast,  come so would result in a  surprise large displacement of the coldest  zone in the Northern Hemisphere.    Note the projected Cyclone over the Arctic Ocean gyre area,  this would be the first time in more than a month of such an image.  

   A switchover from steady High to Low was much forecasted in late April:   http://eh2r.blogspot.com/2018/04/2018-annual-spring-summer-projection-by.html

  Not quite like this ECMWF effort,  we await June 9 and report back.....  

WD May 30, 2018

Deep refraction observing vs super computers outlooks

~Long term weather projections have been consistently bad,  no better than flipping a coin as
  some suggest.

~EH2r refraction methods likely will surpass supercomputers,  with only data from mainly one station at a very strategic location  vs hundreds of the world wide grid  for the machines.

   May 9   Accuweather summer projection  has little resemblance to EH2r circulation projections.

http://eh2r.blogspot.ca/2018/04/2018-annual-spring-summer-projection-by.html

    According to 24 days ago EH2r projection,  which has been to date  quite accurate, t he only time the West with  above normal summer temperatures would be end of summer,
Central Canada should be equal  slightly below to normal, at beginning and very end of summer,   Eastern Canada above normal till summer end.   Baffin Island is way off,  must be colder to seasonal throughout.

Weather Channel does something smart ,  it splits the summer into 3 months.  However,  there does not seem to be any coherence with EH2r outlook:

May 18 projection seems to be made from the same super computer run,  West of a vortex should have influx from the North,  unless the North warms incredibly,  it should be cooler there from beginning of summer till end of July. 

NOAA  looks pretty good at equal to average temperatures in the Midwest despite not projecting for each month,  the deep Southwest US above normal seems reasonable given the lack of circulation from the greater distance to the Cold Temperature North Pole.  Eastern North America would be an "A" would it be not for end of summer cloudiness cooling. 

ECMWF  based May 1,  June-July-August-September 2018...  June is the one with the most probability below normal temperatures at 60 to 70 % in deep blue.  The particular fixation with Western North America being probably warmer is illogical,  the flow suggested by ECMWF  West of the CAA (Canadian Arctic Archipelago) infers a flow from the North
throughout all 4 months.  Advection from the South should boost a warming (Eastern North America).  The UK becoming progressively warmer than normal as summer progresses looks good.  Barents sea area warmer mid summer onwards seems correct,  equally Alaska above average temperatures throughout makes sense.  Although seems that ECMWF model is calling for El-Nino to reappear as well.

ECMWF looks good in many regions despite the same common flaw,  all models except NOAA seem to rely heavily on the same  western North America warming.  We shall see if this holds true.  WD May 20, 2018

The cold air mirror: snow

~Snow can be as complex as it can be simple
~Where are the thicker layers on sea ice?
~  The Equation of winter T***<=Ts  helps,  only if remote sensing provides true skin temperatures

 

    NOAA map room temperatures May 13 2018, closely outline the shrinking snow carpet,  alas snow water equivalent map seems to have a trace snow layer North of Alaska, when not visually seen,  nevertheless with continued particular attention to the Behring sea area, we see 0 to -5 C outline (green) coinciding with spring sea ice break from shore almost at a normal date given the lasting great CTNP of the CAA. Wherever sea ice exists, it is possible for surface air temperature to exceed 0 C, but the ice field must be broken:

     When sea ice breaks the ice field surface air warms by open water absorbing sun light, T*** top of sea ice mainly covered by snow, becomes T* * partially covered, only then surface temperatures may be much warmer. So far so good,  the surface temperature map above does not contradict the equations,  except for the missing snow . But while using the same rules, we can find where the most snow lies, for this we need “surface skin temperatures”, which are no longer easily found on the web, but can be taken on IR satellite pictures only when there are no clouds masking the ground.

The imprint of snow basically mirrors where cold spring air mass is,  from here we can see the coming June -July weather circulation configuration,  forming as expected if the maps are accurate. We need watch for surface air temperatures on whatever ice buoy station there is.  Not many and few,  we must rely on surface model calculations, presumably based from these "skin temperatures" .   Given that these are correct,  sometimes they are not,  but allowing us the indulgence that they are, we can make out where most of deep snow exists:

NOAA map room, 7  day mean temperature for May 7 to may 13 2018.  The snow dominates the blue regions,  exactly where 2 Cold Temperature North Poles exist,  not to mention Greenland,  which is one giant snow pack.  The blue green zone, 0 to -5 C,  is more exposed sea ice,  more apt to have earlier melt ponds,  snow may lie on top of water over sea ice as well.   I would consider a +.5 C surface air reading ideal to guaranty water on ground or ice. WD May 14,2018

   

   

Invisible INVINCIBLE

~Some circulation models may not have a correct prognosis of the current location and extent of the great CTNP 'vortice' of 2018

  ~  Proof checking the GFS,  not quite getting High Arctic circulation  right;

Central CAA ice crystals in May?  Very good ice crystal display including Parry Arc,  in the bottom foreground ice fog,  with a form of organic smog,  not common within the last 10 years or so.  Sure signals usually associated with a  deeply cold Upper Atmosphere. 

GFS 850 mb Geopotential height and vorticity April 30 onwards.  brings a Cyclone right over the Arctic Ocean Gyre area,  not possible if there is a  major cold temperature "vortice"  hovering over the Canadian Arctic Archipelago (CAA),  the  Low pressures should head Southwards instead. 

    And so they did:

CMC actual surface maps following the projection above, As we can see the GFS fizzled in precision,  highly likely because closest thing to AI or the supercomputer creating its circulation models,  does not consider the "vortice" hovering about the CAA as  a significant cold area.  Notice the Lows following the outline of the coldest one rather than going towards the Pacific Ocean.   Which did not make any sense.  Confirming so we look at latest GFS:

   The GFS seems to be more precise within about 3 days in the CAA region of Arctic,  I am sure it is more potent elsewhere with more numerous upper air stations,  but no Lows hovering towards the Arctic Ocean Gyre yet...    Note to mr AI ,  there will be a switchover from High pressure over the Gyre area to Low pressure,  but Highs are still colder than Lows,  wait a bit or review at :  http://eh2r.blogspot.ca/2018/04/2018-annual-spring-summer-projection-by.html

    In case some weather expert will note that 850 mb GFS is not quite at surface, we look at latest 850 mb analysis which reflects CMC's surface prognosis quite well:

                                          CMC may 6 2018 850 mb chart.   wd May 6 2018

2018 annual spring summer projection by mainly unorthodox underutilized optical methods PART 3

~2017 projection (in purple)  morphed with 2018 forecast discussion

   The pathway to perfection is laced with accurate evaluations

~ A surprise cooling temperature shift caused by too much snow on the ground, changed winter from all time cloudiest and warmest, to seasonal. 

Quite similar to current 2018 prognosis,  winter 17-2018 gradually accumulated snow precipitation instead of coming on early like during previous year winter.  Just past Arctic winter was not uniform at all everywhere,  Bering sea region being warmest throughout  winter , just South of CAA being coldest,  with a wide region receiving a lot of snow  in particular the North Pole to Greenland sector,  most of the CAA and likely Barents and Greenland sea zones.   

~ It doesn't spare nor slow sea ice ultimate demise

  2017 melt season minima was 8th place out of 36  in a crowded field,  the next higher 4 rankings were slightly higher in extent.  

~ 2015-16 world all time warming trend may be slightly stalled at a very warm level

NASA 2017 Gisstemp  3rd place for Northern Hemisphere,  2018 will be between 4th and 6th place.  

Northern Hemisphere projection 2017:


Hurricanes and Tornados


There is no reason to believe that Tornados will be more frequent than average, there is a colder atmosphere than 2016 , but it is largely confined to the High Arctic Troposphere, its effect largely nullified in the warmer stratosphere without any greater high speed laminal wind formations as what made 2011 prediction successful. The Stratosphere is unusually normal, the very Cold at center -80 C Polar Stratospheric Vortex lasted a very short time, barely made a high speed spin around the Pole compared to other more prominent years. However heat contrasts will exist at the higher latitudes, perhaps displacing tornado alley Northwards. Hurricanes should be less frequent because the Sahara will be especially hot this year, its sand dust greatly affects Hurricane formations . Typhoons should be normal in numbers as with a Neutral ENSO season, since I have not seen nor detected any significant ENSO trend.

2018 conditions and circulation are dissimilar,  the Polar jet stream should be largely confined at much higher latitudes with mainly one dominant CTNP driving it:

600 mb air temperature closely represents the Density Weighted Temperature of the entire atmosphere,  it is of way better usage than often overused 500mb,  because 600 mb height is more at the center of the troposhere.    NOAA daily composites are often adequate,  sometimes way off,     such is the case for 600 mb to the West of Canadian Arctic Archipelago for 2018.  2002 March 25 to April 25 600 mb temperature map is more like what is going on during the same period in 2018.   However 2002 over all circulation is from another era,  when there was much thicker sea ice spanning a wider area of the Arctic year round,  2002 started just getting away from one of the coldest long lasting  La-Nina  in history,  almost 3 years.   2018 La-Nina from El-Nino 2016 rebound has been struggling , sputtering,  has been unstable ,  weak and predictable as irregular.  I have observed definite La-Nina tendencies similar to spring 2008 "Big Blue" eternal cloudy free spring, roughly 47 days long in late winter early spring 2018,  with an El-Nino like warm cloud boost over  all in 3 months just past.  So this summer will sputter at irregular occasions warm and cool,  dry and wet likewise world wide.  2002 was much more stable.  But this I agree with NOAA daily composites,  2018 has a smaller area of very cold air in the Arctic.  Smaller means the jet stream will be closer to the Arctic than tornado alley,  but I wont be surprised if tornados will strike and vanish in likewise ENSO mentioned cycles.

2011 was the marquee year for tornados,  it was foreseen as such ,   there are no real very close similarities with 2011,  300 mb Geopotential height has the lower tropopause oh the other side of the world,  while the amount of raw kinetic energy has been tame:

   End of winter stratospheric Polar vortex varies in strength from year to year,  2018 had a smaller less expansive and shorter in duration one than 2011,  the latter had upper winds much in excess of 200 knots.  Laminal velocities as such don't disappear but dissipate throughout the Upper air,  the stronger the upper winds the more there should be tornados.

Typhoons  never seemed to have stopped in intensity during the last few years,  ENSO being Neutral again will continue the trend.  Hurricanes will of course occur again,  but I like the 2002 historical tracks as a good approximation model already experienced on Earth, 

    We must keep in mind the distant CTNP cell influencing circulation,  the grasp of this circulation extends beyond its sight.  But again 2002 circulation is not quite like 2018,  because of mainly one cold vortex left (maintained by Greenland)  minus the much warmer Atlantic sea water temperatures,  which would mean  more numerous fierce hurricanes (than 2002) arcing towards the NE,  but for those venturing  at Mexicos latitude,  further away from the CTNP center of gravity,   no real sense of direction, aimless meanderings.    The last CTNP, or what is left of it, will attract cyclones,  watch for a one two punch,  first a cyclone heading towards Greenland,  creating a path or rather an enclosure with a Greenland High stretching South, the following cyclone,  if hurricane,  will fall into the trap forcing its pathway almost straight North.  

Northern Hemisphere temperature prediction


In all years since 2004, this was the easiest thing to do, since I simply transposed or calibrated Arctic Sun disk vertical disk gains statistics as a defacto Northern Hemisphere temperature average. It worked marvelously well. But now , excess snow on Arctic lands makes it more difficult.
The colder spring time Arctic Atmosphere should stall NH warming gains or temperatures trending upwards as within the last few years, making 2017 # 3 warmest in history.

  And so it exactly was.


Sea Ice should be #1 lowest volume and likely lowest extent in history

   Not so,  but very close to it,  the failure here was the missing concept of cold air "feeding",  which occurs to the West of a cold temperature vortex,  simply because the circulation around a cold temperature vortex is Southwards to its West and Northwards to its East.  During summer, temperature roles are reversed,  a Low is usually colder than a High.  2018 expectation will be reminiscent to the past recent summers,  but for a shorter time period,
the strong summer cyclonic cloud dominance abridged will mean more sun hitting sea ice, I would expect 2nd place in sea ice extent with a very close to a clear navigation lane across Atlantic to Pacific, an open sea passage near or at the Pole.

Difficult as it may be, the lowest volume of sea ice at 2017 Maxima, combined with consistent rapid sea ice displacement velocities and the huge amount of snowfall stemming from the warmest Arctic winter in history, literally makes it easy for a change, #1 least volume of sea ice come September, with a bit of a problem with extent predictability, because sea ice is spread out from continuous daily displacements. The East Siberian sea to North Pole "arm" or ice bridge will figure prominent again, but will be eventually wiped out given the Gyre circulation, made strong last year, was recently reinforced. 

      This arm will appear and disappear fast in 2018,  because of the dominance of Gyre anticyclone
with a brief  cyclonic interlude.  

 The stable presence of an Anticyclone North of Alaska is normal when the Canadian Archipelago atmosphere is coldest, the clouds presence encompassing this anticyclone span is also very normal in spring. Eventually the temperature dew point spread will widen due to solar warming and the effect of a huge area High over the Arctic Ocean will hit like in 2007. I would expect record number of melt Ponds -late- from all that thick snow cover. 

     I expect earliest melt ponds since 2008, they should appear where a lot of snow has fallen, since we only have an educated guess as to where this is, melt ponds should appear in all North Pole quadrants except the Greenland sector.

 This will accelerate the melt rapidly, numerous melt ponds will signal the start of very rapid melting, after seemingly sluggish melt daily rates interspersed with at times great variations caused by the lack of sea ice consolidation. The North Pole will be partially ice free because pack ice will be moving all over the place. A good Yacht Captain should be able to make to the Pole though.

2018 melting rate will slow mid melting season,  it will give the impression of sea ice spared a great disaster again. But the return of the Gyre High in August  will compact thinner sea ice pans to the detriment of extent and to the gain of ridging against the Canadian Arctic Archipelago.

Other parts of the world predictions
The Okanagan valley BC will be hot and dry at first then turn quite wet, Midwest North America will be mostly dry and very hot with clean air from the North except from forest fires, NE coast of Canada and US cooler wet turning same as Midwest come July. Finally Western Europe record high temperatures, not as much as North African records.

Hindsight being 20/20:

2007 projection had pretty good predictions,  the Okanagan Canada  besieged by record rains,  was about to seriously flood at the time 2017 projection was written,  until the weather changed hot and dry, floods were averted.    NW Europe was very warm as summer NASA map shows,  difficult to say about North Africa,  but it was equally quite hot.  Eastern North America was cool and wet at least till mid summer,  2018 will see a reversal,  cool in the West warmer in the East.  Then summer end vice versa.

The summer will linger well into fall, the fall well into winter again. With Arctic record snow
fall mixing sea ice data with floating snow.

We should find out about how much snow has corrupted the sea ice extent data this September after strong Arctic Ocean anticyclone gyre compactions.

DISCOVERIES 2017-18

There were 3 important discoveries in 2017-18 observation season, 1) A major one, T***<Ts Temperature of top of snow field is always colder or equal to air surface temperature, the equation of winter, first thought to be a sea horizon effect discovered many years before. 2) Sea ice horizon elevation is inversely proportional to precipitable water in the upper air column, implying the importance of solar shortwave radiation. A drier upper air provides a greater radiation conduit during the melt season. This brings 2007 melt to mind, when massive multi year thick sea ice melted very rapidly under an Arctic dipole, which was a very steady presence of anticyclone in July( unusual since ) , over the Arctic Ocean gyre area. Much drier air during any period with the presence of the sun highly increases shortwave radiation transfers:

 With nearly same temperature during most of the period preceding and almost identical wind speeds, one day later from April 2 to 3, with time on these pictures from left to right 1 minute apart (April 3 to the right) . We have here a rare combination of required factors to determine if precipitable water (pw) column affects the energy balance at the sea ice horizon. The only difference was pw wetter by 2 mm the evening before, 5.32 vs 3.62 mm. The air was gradually drying up  towards a normal Arctic 2 mm,  more shortwave was hitting the surface on April 3, the horizon was always lower than preceding day throughout the 3rd as well. Local apparent noon warming was not as strong on the 2nd,  therefore rebound of horizon height goes quicker in the evening.
More such comparisons will determine the extent of pw effects...

Discovery #3 awaits testing through repetition.  WD April 29-30, 2018