Invisible INVINCIBLE

~Some circulation models may not have a correct prognosis of the current location and extent of the great CTNP 'vortice' of 2018

  ~  Proof checking the GFS,  not quite getting High Arctic circulation  right;

Central CAA ice crystals in May?  Very good ice crystal display including Parry Arc,  in the bottom foreground ice fog,  with a form of organic smog,  not common within the last 10 years or so.  Sure signals usually associated with a  deeply cold Upper Atmosphere. 

GFS 850 mb Geopotential height and vorticity April 30 onwards.  brings a Cyclone right over the Arctic Ocean Gyre area,  not possible if there is a  major cold temperature "vortice"  hovering over the Canadian Arctic Archipelago (CAA),  the  Low pressures should head Southwards instead. 

    And so they did:

CMC actual surface maps following the projection above, As we can see the GFS fizzled in precision,  highly likely because closest thing to AI or the supercomputer creating its circulation models,  does not consider the "vortice" hovering about the CAA as  a significant cold area.  Notice the Lows following the outline of the coldest one rather than going towards the Pacific Ocean.   Which did not make any sense.  Confirming so we look at latest GFS:

   The GFS seems to be more precise within about 3 days in the CAA region of Arctic,  I am sure it is more potent elsewhere with more numerous upper air stations,  but no Lows hovering towards the Arctic Ocean Gyre yet...    Note to mr AI ,  there will be a switchover from High pressure over the Gyre area to Low pressure,  but Highs are still colder than Lows,  wait a bit or review at :  http://eh2r.blogspot.ca/2018/04/2018-annual-spring-summer-projection-by.html

    In case some weather expert will note that 850 mb GFS is not quite at surface, we look at latest 850 mb analysis which reflects CMC's surface prognosis quite well:

                                          CMC may 6 2018 850 mb chart.   wd May 6 2018

2018 annual spring summer projection by mainly unorthodox underutilized optical methods PART 3

~2017 projection (in purple)  morphed with 2018 forecast discussion

   The pathway to perfection is laced with accurate evaluations

~ A surprise cooling temperature shift caused by too much snow on the ground, changed winter from all time cloudiest and warmest, to seasonal. 

Quite similar to current 2018 prognosis,  winter 17-2018 gradually accumulated snow precipitation instead of coming on early like during previous year winter.  Just past Arctic winter was not uniform at all everywhere,  Bering sea region being warmest throughout  winter , just South of CAA being coldest,  with a wide region receiving a lot of snow  in particular the North Pole to Greenland sector,  most of the CAA and likely Barents and Greenland sea zones.   

~ It doesn't spare nor slow sea ice ultimate demise

  2017 melt season minima was 8th place out of 36  in a crowded field,  the next higher 4 rankings were slightly higher in extent.  

~ 2015-16 world all time warming trend may be slightly stalled at a very warm level

NASA 2017 Gisstemp  3rd place for Northern Hemisphere,  2018 will be between 4th and 6th place.  

Northern Hemisphere projection 2017:


Hurricanes and Tornados


There is no reason to believe that Tornados will be more frequent than average, there is a colder atmosphere than 2016 , but it is largely confined to the High Arctic Troposphere, its effect largely nullified in the warmer stratosphere without any greater high speed laminal wind formations as what made 2011 prediction successful. The Stratosphere is unusually normal, the very Cold at center -80 C Polar Stratospheric Vortex lasted a very short time, barely made a high speed spin around the Pole compared to other more prominent years. However heat contrasts will exist at the higher latitudes, perhaps displacing tornado alley Northwards. Hurricanes should be less frequent because the Sahara will be especially hot this year, its sand dust greatly affects Hurricane formations . Typhoons should be normal in numbers as with a Neutral ENSO season, since I have not seen nor detected any significant ENSO trend.

2018 conditions and circulation are dissimilar,  the Polar jet stream should be largely confined at much higher latitudes with mainly one dominant CTNP driving it:

600 mb air temperature closely represents the Density Weighted Temperature of the entire atmosphere,  it is of way better usage than often overused 500mb,  because 600 mb height is more at the center of the troposhere.    NOAA daily composites are often adequate,  sometimes way off,     such is the case for 600 mb to the West of Canadian Arctic Archipelago for 2018.  2002 March 25 to April 25 600 mb temperature map is more like what is going on during the same period in 2018.   However 2002 over all circulation is from another era,  when there was much thicker sea ice spanning a wider area of the Arctic year round,  2002 started just getting away from one of the coldest long lasting  La-Nina  in history,  almost 3 years.   2018 La-Nina from El-Nino 2016 rebound has been struggling , sputtering,  has been unstable ,  weak and predictable as irregular.  I have observed definite La-Nina tendencies similar to spring 2008 "Big Blue" eternal cloudy free spring, roughly 47 days long in late winter early spring 2018,  with an El-Nino like warm cloud boost over  all in 3 months just past.  So this summer will sputter at irregular occasions warm and cool,  dry and wet likewise world wide.  2002 was much more stable.  But this I agree with NOAA daily composites,  2018 has a smaller area of very cold air in the Arctic.  Smaller means the jet stream will be closer to the Arctic than tornado alley,  but I wont be surprised if tornados will strike and vanish in likewise ENSO mentioned cycles.

2011 was the marquee year for tornados,  it was foreseen as such ,   there are no real very close similarities with 2011,  300 mb Geopotential height has the lower tropopause oh the other side of the world,  while the amount of raw kinetic energy has been tame:

   End of winter stratospheric Polar vortex varies in strength from year to year,  2018 had a smaller less expansive and shorter in duration one than 2011,  the latter had upper winds much in excess of 200 knots.  Laminal velocities as such don't disappear but dissipate throughout the Upper air,  the stronger the upper winds the more there should be tornados.

Typhoons  never seemed to have stopped in intensity during the last few years,  ENSO being Neutral again will continue the trend.  Hurricanes will of course occur again,  but I like the 2002 historical tracks as a good approximation model already experienced on Earth, 

    We must keep in mind the distant CTNP cell influencing circulation,  the grasp of this circulation extends beyond its sight.  But again 2002 circulation is not quite like 2018,  because of mainly one cold vortex left (maintained by Greenland)  minus the much warmer Atlantic sea water temperatures,  which would mean  more numerous fierce hurricanes (than 2002) arcing towards the NE,  but for those venturing  at Mexicos latitude,  further away from the CTNP center of gravity,   no real sense of direction, aimless meanderings.    The last CTNP, or what is left of it, will attract cyclones,  watch for a one two punch,  first a cyclone heading towards Greenland,  creating a path or rather an enclosure with a Greenland High stretching South, the following cyclone,  if hurricane,  will fall into the trap forcing its pathway almost straight North.  

Northern Hemisphere temperature prediction


In all years since 2004, this was the easiest thing to do, since I simply transposed or calibrated Arctic Sun disk vertical disk gains statistics as a defacto Northern Hemisphere temperature average. It worked marvelously well. But now , excess snow on Arctic lands makes it more difficult.
The colder spring time Arctic Atmosphere should stall NH warming gains or temperatures trending upwards as within the last few years, making 2017 # 3 warmest in history.

  And so it exactly was.


Sea Ice should be #1 lowest volume and likely lowest extent in history

   Not so,  but very close to it,  the failure here was the missing concept of cold air "feeding",  which occurs to the West of a cold temperature vortex,  simply because the circulation around a cold temperature vortex is Southwards to its West and Northwards to its East.  During summer, temperature roles are reversed,  a Low is usually colder than a High.  2018 expectation will be reminiscent to the past recent summers,  but for a shorter time period,
the strong summer cyclonic cloud dominance abridged will mean more sun hitting sea ice, I would expect 2nd place in sea ice extent with a very close to a clear navigation lane across Atlantic to Pacific, an open sea passage near or at the Pole.

Difficult as it may be, the lowest volume of sea ice at 2017 Maxima, combined with consistent rapid sea ice displacement velocities and the huge amount of snowfall stemming from the warmest Arctic winter in history, literally makes it easy for a change, #1 least volume of sea ice come September, with a bit of a problem with extent predictability, because sea ice is spread out from continuous daily displacements. The East Siberian sea to North Pole "arm" or ice bridge will figure prominent again, but will be eventually wiped out given the Gyre circulation, made strong last year, was recently reinforced. 

      This arm will appear and disappear fast in 2018,  because of the dominance of Gyre anticyclone
with a brief  cyclonic interlude.  

 The stable presence of an Anticyclone North of Alaska is normal when the Canadian Archipelago atmosphere is coldest, the clouds presence encompassing this anticyclone span is also very normal in spring. Eventually the temperature dew point spread will widen due to solar warming and the effect of a huge area High over the Arctic Ocean will hit like in 2007. I would expect record number of melt Ponds -late- from all that thick snow cover. 

     I expect earliest melt ponds since 2008, they should appear where a lot of snow has fallen, since we only have an educated guess as to where this is, melt ponds should appear in all North Pole quadrants except the Greenland sector.

 This will accelerate the melt rapidly, numerous melt ponds will signal the start of very rapid melting, after seemingly sluggish melt daily rates interspersed with at times great variations caused by the lack of sea ice consolidation. The North Pole will be partially ice free because pack ice will be moving all over the place. A good Yacht Captain should be able to make to the Pole though.

2018 melting rate will slow mid melting season,  it will give the impression of sea ice spared a great disaster again. But the return of the Gyre High in August  will compact thinner sea ice pans to the detriment of extent and to the gain of ridging against the Canadian Arctic Archipelago.

Other parts of the world predictions
The Okanagan valley BC will be hot and dry at first then turn quite wet, Midwest North America will be mostly dry and very hot with clean air from the North except from forest fires, NE coast of Canada and US cooler wet turning same as Midwest come July. Finally Western Europe record high temperatures, not as much as North African records.

Hindsight being 20/20:

2007 projection had pretty good predictions,  the Okanagan Canada  besieged by record rains,  was about to seriously flood at the time 2017 projection was written,  until the weather changed hot and dry, floods were averted.    NW Europe was very warm as summer NASA map shows,  difficult to say about North Africa,  but it was equally quite hot.  Eastern North America was cool and wet at least till mid summer,  2018 will see a reversal,  cool in the West warmer in the East.  Then summer end vice versa.

The summer will linger well into fall, the fall well into winter again. With Arctic record snow
fall mixing sea ice data with floating snow.

We should find out about how much snow has corrupted the sea ice extent data this September after strong Arctic Ocean anticyclone gyre compactions.

DISCOVERIES 2017-18

There were 3 important discoveries in 2017-18 observation season, 1) A major one, T***<Ts Temperature of top of snow field is always colder or equal to air surface temperature, the equation of winter, first thought to be a sea horizon effect discovered many years before. 2) Sea ice horizon elevation is inversely proportional to precipitable water in the upper air column, implying the importance of solar shortwave radiation. A drier upper air provides a greater radiation conduit during the melt season. This brings 2007 melt to mind, when massive multi year thick sea ice melted very rapidly under an Arctic dipole, which was a very steady presence of anticyclone in July( unusual since ) , over the Arctic Ocean gyre area. Much drier air during any period with the presence of the sun highly increases shortwave radiation transfers:

 With nearly same temperature during most of the period preceding and almost identical wind speeds, one day later from April 2 to 3, with time on these pictures from left to right 1 minute apart (April 3 to the right) . We have here a rare combination of required factors to determine if precipitable water (pw) column affects the energy balance at the sea ice horizon. The only difference was pw wetter by 2 mm the evening before, 5.32 vs 3.62 mm. The air was gradually drying up  towards a normal Arctic 2 mm,  more shortwave was hitting the surface on April 3, the horizon was always lower than preceding day throughout the 3rd as well. Local apparent noon warming was not as strong on the 2nd,  therefore rebound of horizon height goes quicker in the evening.
More such comparisons will determine the extent of pw effects...

Discovery #3 awaits testing through repetition.  WD April 29-30, 2018

2018 annual spring summer projection by mainly unorthodox underutilized optical methods PART 2

~  Past winter prognosis ,  remarkable contradictions.


The great Cold Temperature North Pole  vortex of Western Canadian Arctic Archipelago.  

  We start at winter end,  when contrary to present time most of the dark season Arctic was warmer and cloudy.  Somehow the heat influence grasp of North Atlantic cyclones nearly constantly circumnavigating North Greenland from the East fell short of South of the 70th parallel,   somehow the upper air got colder in an important sector of the Arctic,  this cold air aggregate sprung out in force in March,  it had multiple density layers causing amazing sunsets :

I have filmed a few Wegener blank strips over the years,  this one was entirely complicated.    This kiss of the mirror sun type,  had amazing gravity waves in the lower frame, shown here ascending with the inverse lower sun disk limb.  Up to 4 gravity waves mystically appeared bright adjoining the deep dark,  blank zone, implying ducted light which got scattered out to extinction by the very long distance travelled, up to or in excess of 2000 kilometers. 

   Stacked Green flashes vanish as fast as they were created.  Sunsets were for the most part shifted Northwards in March compared to previous 10 years,  with one setting at -2.3 degrees below the horizon,  a very rare recent 8 year occasion, much more common in 2002-2005 period,  the last time this happened was once in 2014 and once in 2010 .   April sunsets disappeared slightly Southwards than average.   The near surface air in April was prominently adiabatic.

  An apparent contradiction,  this March 31 2018 sun disk vertical diameter is large, 24.90 arc minutes,  at an altitude close to the horizon,  2018 horizon sun disks tended to be vertically thicker near the horizon,  much diminished than average well above.  This described the structure of the atmosphere,  warmer very near the ground, much much colder in the upper atmosphere,  in fact sun disk data was astounding:

   What is the score?  

                                                     Levels @ #1  Year   Ranking   

                                          19   2016 First Place

14 2015 2

11 2006 3

9 2005 4

9 2009 4

9 2010 4

9 2011 4

9 2013 4

8 2012 5

5 2017 6

4 2004 7

4 2007 8

4 2008 9

4 2014 10

2 2002 11

1 2003 12

                    0 2018 ? 13 dead last

            With more than 500 vertical sun disk  measurements within 120 decimal levels,  taken by high resolution telescope photos from -0.9 to 10.9 degrees astronomical elevations.   Mostly with March and April data,  February was cloudy.  This 2018 '0' result is amazing,  it implies a very cold Upper Atmosphere,  in fact the coldest since the start of vertical sun disk measurements, mainly to the West of central Canadian Arctic Archipelago ,  a location not measured by soundings.  Not one of 120 possible decimal elevation levels average sun disk diameters was all time highest.   This forced me to look at the bottom of rankings vertical dimensions results for the first time ever,  there is something peculiar about them,  many occurred during La-Nina trending periods but mostly with neutral or neutral trending  end of winters:  

2002 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.1 2003 0.9 0.6 0.4 0.0 -0.3 -0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 2004 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 2005 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.3 -0.6 -0.8 2006 -0.8 -0.7 -0.5 -0.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.9 0.9 2007 0.7 0.3 0.0 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 -0.5 -0.8 -1.1 -1.4 -1.5 -1.6 2008 -1.6 -1.4 -1.2 -0.9 -0.8 -0.5 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.6 -0.7 2009 -0.8 -0.7 -0.5 -0.2 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.3 1.6 Year DJF JFM FMA MAM AMJ MJJ JJA JAS ASO SON OND NDJ 2010 1.5 1.3 0.9 0.4 -0.1 -0.6 -1.0 -1.4 -1.6 -1.7 -1.7 -1.6 2011 -1.4 -1.1 -0.8 -0.6 -0.5 -0.4 -0.5 -0.7 -0.9 -1.1 -1.1 -1.0 2012 -0.8 -0.6 -0.5 -0.4 -0.2 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 -0.2 2013 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 2014 -0.4 -0.4 -0.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.7 2015 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.5 1.8 2.1 2.4 2.5 2.6 2016 2.5 2.2 1.7 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.3 -0.6 -0.7 -0.7 -0.7 -0.6 2017 -0.3 -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 -0.1 -0.4 -0.7 -0.9 -1.0 2018 -0.9 -0.8

NOAA/ National Weather Service National Centers for Environmental Prediction Climate Prediction Center 5830 University Research Court College Park, Maryland 20740 Page Author: Climate Prediction Center Internet Team Page last modified: Disclaimer

     El-Nino  or El-Nino trending periods tend to expand vertical sun disks ,  this leads me to conclude that there is a strong causality between vertical sun disk dimensions and ENSO variations.    Brings attention to 2018 ENSO direction?  It seems that it will be a neutral ENSO summer.   The larger question would be whether Arctic sun disks can infer the temperature of a large part of Pacific equator,  it appears so.   

   First Melt 2018 

           As reported before, First Melt 2018 was earliest in history,  but with the most frequent resumption of sea ice horizons to astronomical 0 degrees elevation afterwards.  This directly implies all time lowest sea ice thickness,  actually close to it with actual auger measurements,  this was largely achieved by extra snow precipitation as mentioned above,  it snowed during most of the dark season due in large part to Southern cyclones directly hitting the Archipelago from the continent (mainly Pacific Ocean in origin,  with one long lasting quasi-stationary Hudson Bay event) , or by  North Atlantic Lows circumnavigating Northern Greenland  .     When Astronomical Horizon is attained the sea ice bottom may melt due to the thermally neutral balance at sea ice to air interface,  in other words no loss of heat towards space due to top of sea ice temperature being equal to surface air.  The more frequent and longer  Astronomical Horizon occurs above the sea ice horizon the less likely a great sea ice accretion will occur.  

  Near Refraction Observations

     Amazing results again with the near refraction areas,  almost all winter with very weak refraction heights, hardly having significant variations,  in darkness just as much as during sunlight periods,   this has been a continuing increasing trend going back to 2010,  implying a change in temperature structure of the lower atmosphere towards a more unstable one.

  Structure of a very cold stable Upper Arctic Atmosphere

     Data gathered by the usual means added to optical refraction techniques revealed a peculiar structure of a very cold Upper Atmosphere late winter 2018.  It has mainly an adiabatic surface to air interface spanning up to 100 meters or so,  then has a stable sometimes strong inversion,   increasing the temperature profile to a warm maxima usually below 850 mb,  or 1000 meters in altitude, after maxima peak adiabatic profile resumes till the tropopause.  Refraction sun disk observations suggest a deep cooling above the profile maxima,  not often measured by traditional means due to scarcity of Arctic stations.  End of winter 2018 vertical sun disk diameters  above 2 degrees elevation have been exceptionally consistently smaller than 2002-2017 average.   Especially at higher than 10 degrees elevation,  a very rare event,  not seen since 2002,  following a prolonged very cold La-Nina which ensued after 1998 then strongest in history El-Nino.    1998 -2001 La-Nina was so cold 2003  disk observations did not recover in expanded sun diameters even during 2002-2003 mild El-Nino.   Near surface deep inversions reduce vertical sun disk diameters below especially 2 degrees elevation having at least 19.4  atmospheric thickness and more,  this means that at the number of density layers bending sun rays upwards increase 19 fold,  a prominent near surface inversion would give the impression of a very cold atmosphere,  but that is not necessarily so at higher elevations.  Above 10 degrees elevation the number of increased density layers are only 6 fold more,   above that altitude surface inversions don't affect sun disk diameters very much.  Shorter vertical diameters above 10 degrees gives a very significant cold atmosphere signal.  Reverse wise,  closer to near the horizon,  expanded sun disks imply a warmer adiabatic or isothermal temperature profile.   The often observed adiabatic surface interface may only be from thinner sea ice radiating more heat towards space.  WD April 28 2018  

2018 annual spring summer projection by mainly unorthodox underutilized optical methods

~Stunning sun disk results reveal the entire coming Northern Hemisphere circulation with ease.
~2018 will not be warmest year in history,  not even close
~Sea ice is due to take a massive Arctic dipole and steady cyclone periods during same melt season
~The return of somewhat normal CAA Arctic Cold Temperature North Pole not literally seen since 2002

PART 1 

For a change we start this years projection with Northern Hemisphere Global Circulations by season


APRIL MAY 2018:

    There is a great area of colder air,  in the C1 region,  mainly in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago,   it was and is remarkably steady and well structured.  C1 is where the CTNP,  Cold Temperature North Pole resides, not simply in the air but by marking an actual temperature footprint on land and sea,  in a feedback loop.   Vertical sun disk measurements results  ,  acquired between February and April of mainly the Western from center CAA have been shocking, not one mean  decimal elevation levels has been above average,  0,  with more than 500 observations  to date,  I never encountered a  0 result before with respect and compared to thousands of sun disks sizes acquired from 2002-2017.  It may be said to be a significant sigma event.  But it does not mean that the entire Arctic is returning to normal colder temperatures,  it is more like a consolidation of cold air in one region,  part of the fascinating mystery of smaller areas of cold temperatures being particularly colder than a wider spanning area.    This coldest zone affects the weather of the entire Northern Hemisphere.   Is like a higher gravitation zone with planets,  cyclones and anticyclones being planets,  but with a different
spacial cosmic ray setting,  ie land and sea affecting the structure done by the gravity exercised by the coldest zone.     For the Canada and US it means coldest in the West warmest in the East weather.
For the Arctic,  the coldest C1 maintains the Arctic ocean current Gyre by sending some of its coldest air feeding the hovering wobbling anticyclone mainly after interactions with cyclones on its east side of C1.  The same goes for C2,  the second cold air zone gravitas center ,   in the Barents sea area.   The often present anticyclone North  of Norway, an artifact of C2,  will make NW Europe cooler,  all while blocking North Atlantic cyclones from warming and clouding over the Arctic Ocean.    North Pacific area cold air collapse was a long spanning event caused throughout the entire winter,  present Bering sea ice scarce and decimated was the imprint of this. C3 was often a meek shadow of Siberian self throughout winter,  therefore more cyclonic intrusions for Alaska,  which has likely experienced one of their warmest winters in history, not so warm spring.

JUNE JULY 2018:

No doubt makes C1 area again the center of cold temperature Gravity ,  but the planetary system players switch roles.  In the Arctic,   a summer Low pressure becomes a cold air player ,  a High pressure a warm one,  therefore as with each year summer since 2012 great sea ice melt,  2013 to 2017,  gains a lesson learned,  cold air lies where cyclones be.  They are usually not substantial,  I have documented them as "see through" cyclones since they have fewer clouds.  A Low over the Arctic Ocean Gyre area will benefit by C1 cold source though,  therefore cold Lows will descend Western Canada,  Eastern Canada will gain heat from continental Highs,   sometimes called Bermuda Highs when gaining the Atlantic.  Lows should strike SW Europe at times,   as C2 fades,  some North Atlantic cyclones will cool off over the Arctic Ocean,  adding to the North Pacific intrusions.  The North Pacific often High pressure zone is the result in part from the steady presence of Arctic Ocean gyre cyclone and also the warmth acquired during the entire winter just past.  It is during this June-July period again when the sea ice melts slows,  because cold air in Arctic summer is a great cloud saver,  they don't evaporate as quick as with anticyclones.  Sea ice in the Pacific quadrant of the Pole will be decimated still especially next to Russia.  We can see the Polar jet stream in green not being much of a player further South in the US,  to the benefit of likely lesser tornadoes.

 August September 2018:

What happens when there is only one cold cell left?  If not completely faded,  the entire planetary weather circulation system becomes smaller,  but again the roles of the 'planets" ,  the Highs and Lows,  switch back to their more winter like modes.  It is in early August when we will  be able to evaluate if the Arctic sea ice will have a new all time low extent in September.  I think not so, but it will be very low sea ice extent,  I think that ridging against the CAA coast will pack Arctic Ocean  sea ice substantially, revealing an emaciated state it was under disguise by more scattered spreading from the continuous past years onslaught of further melting ,  not always captured well by remote sensing algorithms.  The North East sea route should open first and expand to be near or at the North Pole, an amazing sight for those who know and for the world to behold,  the Northwest passage larger Straits will be clogged with sea ice coming from the Arctic Ocean ,  finally hurricanes may strike East coast of US and Canada because the CTNP will reform late August,  a magnet for Northwards cyclones from the East coast especially when very warm cyclones approach and reshape the Greenland High to extend Southwards.   Western North America will finally have a summer,  Eastern very hot but wet and stormy.  WD April 27, 2018

   

Small but coldest airmass in 20 years moves towards Alaska, likely reinforcing the Arctic Ocean gyre High

~Optically significant event of very cold stable air mass centered in the West of Canadian Arctic Archipelago was made to move by warm cyclone interaction.

~Most significant coldest upper air measured by vertical sun disk method in 20 years, had remarkably stable properties lasting at least 4 weeks. 

       A steady area of cold air kept  sun disks shrunken  for nearly a month, but not near the surface,  this particular nature of steadiness is interesting,  but the level of cold was not seen since 2002,
which was several years after massive 1998 El-Nino,  now likewise several years after massive El-Nino peaking end of 2015,  we see the result of steady La-Nina influence of less clouds,  particularly away from influx of  Northern moisture from frequent North Atlantic warm cyclone injections,  the dry air it seems,  survived mainly to the West and South of central CAA.   The West CTNP  (Cold Temperature North Pole) vortex  just recently got displaced Westwards towards Alaska:

We see CAA very cold vortex, a zone of clear air, been assaulted by massive cyclone from the Southwest,  in fact the CTNP vortex dragged the cyclone Northeastwards,  but it is as significantly deeply cold  as any in the distant past,   what we literally see is this cold air moving westwards towards Alaska in less than a day.   CMC IR animation above comprises pictures from April 18 to Early April 20 2018.  

  Although the cold zone was moving Westward,  surface temperatures did not seem to reflect so,  in particular because of clear air sun warming as the day progressed from 12 18 00 and 06 UTC , seen here as the cyclone progressed Northwards (extreme right).  In addition this cold zone had strange features of sun disks more compressed in the upper atmosphere rather than near the horizon,  this cold atmospheric area had a complex upper air profile, more adiabatic near the surface, with very cold temperatures  likely above 850 mb.   Next day in morning we see where it moved has already  changed the weather  :

The entire area surface air has cooled further,  CMC April 20 2018  12z.   But rather the larger influence of a stable mass of cold atmosphere would be with consolidation of the Gyre High:

   CMC 72 hours forecast based April 20 2018 at 00z.    This forecast increased the anticyclone strength a bit ,  perhaps off by 5 to 10 mb,  since the cold zone observed optically was never really measured by upper air soundings,  it is a known uncertain player in a general circulation pattern really significant for sea ice, the Arctic Ocean Gyre High is a major contributor in reducing sea ice volume especially during spring and summer.  The peculiar stable nature of the observed cold zone should  not be underestimated,    this gyre High may last quite a long time.  WD April 20, 2018

Drying out Arctic Ocean atmosphere season use to be in early January

~30 years ago sea ice regained a lot of thickness every freezing season especially during darkness.
~Last 10 years thinner sea ice went along with a warming
~2017-18 near stagnant winter circulation patterns have equally changed

 It took a long time to get this late March 2018 IR 10.8 microns  picture of a drier North American Arctic,  we see all sorts of sea and land  features from Greenland to Alaska:

    I can show 30 years past pictures when this dryness started in December.  If history repeats itself, barring La-Nina going suddenly really strong,  clouds of ice crystals from the cracking open of thinner sea ice will be strong coming mid April  onwards, causing high albedo clouds to return.  If so the drying season 2018 will last about 3 weeks,  instead of the usual 15.  It would be good for extensive cloudiness to return though sparing a great melt,  for without massive overcast clouds throughout the melting season there would be no sea ice. 

    A circulation pattern,  as explained on my previous articles,  synergistically combined with thinner sea ice and warmer temperatures to drag out a pervasive moist or cloudy Arctic Ocean lower atmosphere until NW Europe got cold,  this broke the pattern,  at least for the North Atlantic side.
Again it took a long long time for West of Central Russian Arctic to cool to average temperatures.
Without this event,  the Arctic would have not have a drier atmosphere all winter surely precipitating a guaranteed super melt come September.   

       Nevertheless impressive is the last  9 dark seasons of warmed up Arctic Ocean  atmosphere:

DMI North of 80 surface temperature graph 2010-2018 is amazingly warmer compared to the recent past,  note the year 2012 which had a late winter temperature drop similar 2018,  2015-2016 winter   also was extensively warm influenced by a strong El-Nino,  now compare with 1980-1988:  

There were quite strong El-Ninos in the 80's,  1982-83 and 1986-88,  barely showing any influence over the Arctic Ocean laced with much thicker sea ice,  capable to travel on by humans from Russia to Canada,  not requiring amphibious vehicles. for instance.    But the colder temperatures then imply  dryness,  no need to show pictures,  especially by inferring  partial pressure of water vapor at lower temperatures alone. 

   The latest High Arctic data has shown some resurgence to dryer air,  which is very good until the sun gets to high in the sky.  This may be part of a re-surging towards La-Nina process,  which if true would be a disaster, if lasting throughout the summer,  mostly by clear air allowing the devastation of sea ice by the higher sun. But recent records show a propensity for ENSO to tend to stay toward El--Nino rather than La-Nina.  WD March 26 2018