Great movement Eastward by latest GAC and predecessors

   A small opening displaying Wrangel island ice bridge has been shrinking and compressing,  even
Goodbye Waves are interestingly bunched up against the ice edge,  either by recent past cyclones and in particular the latest one currently shaping up the icescape further.WDAug15,2016

Sea ice moved away from latest major Low pressure Centre

Latest  880 mb Cyclone was right over Laptev sea yesterday.  This is not a see through cyclone,  rather moderate to strong, we can only see its after effects once passed.  For better understanding of over sea ice floes interactions we must look at just prior sea ice movements.   

East of Franz Joseph Lands,  Sea Ice was mainly moving South.

    Notice near Ostrov Komsomolets likely Southwards moving ice but melting,  leaving a stable but badly shattered ice front with Goodbye Waves.

   In the wake of passage of new 980 mb cyclone centre, East of Ostrov Komsomolets reversal of flow direction , note the reduction in Goodbye Waves numbers and Northwards sea ice displacement.   August 15 winds are blowing  Southeastwards,  the main body of ice did not move in that direction,  but rather away from Low pressure centre. wdAugust15,2016

Sliding Sea Ice; Recent sea water lakes near the North Pole made bigger by small Cyclone

~Preceding a mega lake at the Pole coming in a few days


   If Atmospheric pressure drops substantially,  sea level rises by not much,  up to 63 cm ,  but that should be enough to make even sea ice to slide downwards (tidal timing may make the sliding a bit interesting).  Gravity rules us all,  big and small, all things conform,  a recent small 988 mb Low now in the North Pole CAA-Greenland quadrant  is preceding a stronger one, but its effect on fragile looser sea ice left its imprint:

  This small see through 988 mb Low moving from East to West just South of the Pole (towards the Atlantic),  apparently innocent looking and minding its regular business, caused some damage to an already very fragile Central Arctic Basin unraveling, as I write,  sea ice:

August 11-12 AMSR2 Sequence enlarged and zoomed  show a disturbance in sea ice consolidation in a mere day,  especially enlargement of a sea water lakes (surrounded by sea ice).  This was done with a weak Low,  now we will see what a more than moderate 970 mb will do,  highly likely clearing the Pole as never seen before.  wdAugust13,2016

Scant near North Pole visuals; sea ice is badly broken up towards the Atlantic Front.

     For august 11,  we only have 2016,  2014 and 2013 with clear enough skies.  We know that 2016 is badly broken up on the North Atlantic quadrant of the Pole all the way to 88 North within the area of 00 Longitude  along the Trans Polar Stream.   2014 looked like solid consolidation in comparison. Much more broken with open sea water than  2013,  which always was an interesting year.    2016 has had great sea ice volume losses towards the Atlantic,  not necessarily showing well with the numbers. This area of sea ice has very serious implications with Central Arctic Basin consolidation,  if open water dilutes further this sea ice, it would mean more unstable situation leading for more massive losses or melting.   WDAug12,2016

Atlantic Front: substantial evidence of massive melting, 'goodbye' waves a plenty

All along the North Atlantic sea ice front,  about 1200 Kilometres long,  there are numerous new 'Goodbye' waves,  sure evidence of recent massive melting.  From Fram Strait,  to North of Spitsbergen to beyond Franz Josef lands,  as seen here in our roving NASA EOSDIS shots.  Although the newish extended sea ice front line position has recently expanded and appears  more or less stable, that is an illusion,  the sea ice melts just as fast as it touches warmer water.  The end result is a great loss of sea ice.  Assume Southwards sea ice movement a modest fluid 2 kilometres an hour ,  about 48 kilometres a day melt along apparently a steady front,  potentially 60,000 km2 a day loss is possible, without actual remote sensing detection. WDAugust10 2016.

Expansion and dilution at once, nature is playing games with our eyes

    While extent drops have recently been lesser,  the melt is just as strong:

Looking at JAXA results,  there has been an expansion of sea ice about 120,000 Km2,  on the North Atlantic front.  As reported here,   there is a great deal of daily melting along that front.  It can be readily identified by comparing when the front was quiet on July 26,  now look at Aug 9 map.  The entire front is battered by the melting (black broken ice zones),  but the flow continues Southwards, nevertheless  right into very warm sea water .   In the mean time,  the CAB is diluting more rapidly leading the way for further water expansion on the Pacific side of the North Pole, which is awfully close to wide open water areas.  Holistically speaking this melt is as bad as it got at this time of the season.  WD Aug7,2016

Atlantic front great movement, super melting trap

  It did not take long for the real Arctic Ocean currents to be re-energized by favourable weather circulation,  there is a mini dipole at the other end of sea ice,  the Trans Polar Stream and main GAC Gyre appear almost full force.  As a result the Atlantic front, seen here, is expanding right into a trap of warm sea water.  With respect to Extent numbers,  they may seem less due to this vast expansion,    but robust they will be in the long run. wdAug7,2016

Individuals always melt away to darkness.

Fram Strait layered Goodbye waves join the ether of the sea.  Rapidly melting sea ice bounces about by collisions with others,  current and winds.  Goodbye waves seem curved and move more uniformly.  Like clouds a top the ocean.

                                                                     North Beaufort Sea. 
                                                     Man shatters the ice,  man looses face

Massive number of "Goodbye" waves don't appear to register on JAXA

~Gyre centred Anticyclone rearranged flow circulation,  a pause in the big extent drops were to be,  however expected to surge again very soon

  Beaufort Sea July 22 August 5 AMSR2 result.   Massive area of 'Goodbye' waves didn't really show up on JAXA which is very interesting,  it rather means that they are essentially slush,  otherwise need be confirmed as such.

  The 'Goodbye' waves of August 4 and 5 set themselves apart from sea ice in many ways,  they are likely very thin slushy sea ice remnants (with  different chemistry?),  very thin because they move faster:

   Goodbye waves are generally faster than sea ice,  as a matter of distinction and practicality, essentially excellent example on how to measure sea ice volume.  Lighter objects floating on sea surface should be swifter, especially if the sea current goes different direction than the winds .   Sea ice moves South while Goodbye waves move West...    Place your mouse pointer on Aug 3 on any large sea ice pan, and determine the distance it travelled,  notice Goodbye waves move greater distances.  WD August 6,2016

2016 so far matching toe to toe daily extent loss numbers vs 2012, now 2 days behind, #1 minima very possible

~Wrangel Island Northwards sea ice 'panhandle' to main pack disintegrating rapidly.
~North Pole will have messed up pack ice mixed with open water drifting there soon

      Wrangel Island Northwards very wide ice bridge likely with thicker sea ice multiple points of fusion were reached a fews days later than adjoining open water areas.  As the 'handle' sea ice to pack structure obliterates more and more daily,  close to 800,000 km2 will be likely gone come minima.
This makes minima at least 4.2 5.2 million square kilometres.  Since I did not estimate other areas, 2016 being  #2 position all time minima is now in range.   Looking at past melts having at least 1.65 million sea ice loss till minima,  #2 position is now a possibility,  especially given the current daily rate melt.  

     Despite not so dense cloud coverage, sea ice remote sensing observations, although not easy, are possible.    Fram Strait has major Eastward winds pushing its melt zone further to the North Atlantic.  We can note a gradual loosening of sea ice North of East Siberian  and Chukchi seas practically all the way to the Pole.  The rate of sea ice vanishing in this sector will dictate if the North Pole will be accessible to none icebreaker ships,  particularly from the Pacific side of the Pole.  The Transpolar Drift Stream appears to have moved near North Pole open water zone further along its usual path,

 leading to conclude that all this messed up pack ice from the South East Russian side along with open water  will be over the North Pole quite soon.  Next few days will have Anticyclone North of Beaufort,  an already strong stubborn gyre current will be re-energized a bit more as well. WDAugust 4 2016