No sea ice horizon upwards rebound observed close to Midnight sun

~Optical Thermal observation method further explained,   proving Ti<=Ta
~Likely  24 hour bottom melt  earliest captured....

   Preceding article questioning NCAR  calculations can be seen here.  The sea ice Horizon would
drop below Astronomical Horizon (AH) if top of sea ice was warmer than surface air.  In many years of observations it was never observed doing that,  the much lower sea water horizon observations with colder than sst air were never repeated with ice.  Instead spring sea ice horizons maintain AH until evening or until under sea ice melting is 24 hours a day.   This likely happened yesterday,  South Cornwallis Island looking at westward MW Passage.

May 19 2014-2015-2016 Horizon comparisons (left center right).   2016 was taken 40 minutes later same date,  but with horizon at AH.  While 2014 and 15 rose above and kept on rising,  despite cloudy conditions, whiter streaks are breaks in clouds sun ray reflections.  The rising horizon 2014-15 was created by cooling of air accelerated by minima top of sea ice core temperature.
2016  core appears warmer,  if not significantly out of cooling potential.   

     On a given Arctic spring day, the horizon drops to AH when the air temperature Ta is equal to top of sea ice temperature Ti.  When reaching AH,  it is highly likely that the bottom of sea ice melts,
but during spring the AH horizon lasts a few minutes when it first shows, in March or early April,  so accretion keeps on making net gains.  AH horizons gradually become longer, but when AH is maintained more than 12 hours,  the bottom of sea ice melts more than forms,  net bottom melting occurs.   This has happened yesterday,  when AH was observed 1 hour before the midnight sun.  For the first time I have observed this in May,  this makes Spring 2016 fast ice the weakest heat resisting sea ice observed since 2010 when spring observations have started.

While taken at same evening time,  the same 19 May Ice horizon appeared at different altitudes.   2015 (left) kept rebounding upwards,  while 2016 remained steady so 1 hour prior the midnight sun.   Sea ice bottom accretion has stopped in 2016,  and now bottom daily melting has started.  

      These key observations capture the very thermal structures instantaneously.  Its all about sea ice temperatures affecting the air right above,  with of course radiation forcing,  when the sun gets through.  wd May 20,2016   

Optically unlikely not possible remote sensing/model? measurements/calculations

     85 to 90 N NOAA Reanalysis.  May 16, 2016.  Use the mouse pointer to compare surface and top of sea ice temperatures.

     There are several reasons why surface sea ice temperature can't be warmer than surface air. #1  It is optically not observable,  if there is a steep adiabatic profile from ground/ice  temperature to Surface air 2 meters above,  it would give an optical illusion,  similar to hot road mirages.   We have here on this example given many locations with a 2 degree C temperature difference between skin to surface air.  This would give a   lapse rate 100 times more than the normal 10 C/Km.     #2 Thermally improbable.  Top of sea ice temperature influences the surface air temperature,  if the air is colder than top of sea ice,  this is a very unstable thermal structure,  ice would cool rapidly by convection upwards of the air touching it.  While air warmer than sea ice invokes a normal stable thermal structure.    Because ice/snow surface is white,  especially since thermal conduction from lower in the column sea ice is much greater than air to top of ice, air conduction affects top of sea ice less than colder sea ice column core minima,  very necessarily  at this time of late spring.  #3 clouds.  Likely covering 85N to the Pole here,  clouds offer a more neutral thermal flux balance,  whereas there is a steady equal heat flux up and down at the surface to air interface.  The net result is more of an isotherm,  but still slightly favoring the stable thermal structure,  which is colder top of sea ice than surface air.  WD May  19, 2016

Remote sensing VS Refraction Prime sea ice rule. Satellites are pretty good, but refraction observations are better.

~Ta>=Ti  rule holds well as seen from space
~ Is likely some remote sensing calculations/methods need some adjustments.

      Taking advantage of persistent "Big Blue"  of 2016 spring,  a truly remarkable insolation bombardment ,  the right term "relentless" onslaught of sunshine,  we can check and find if refraction gained insights (written here) are true on a planetary scale.    NOAA daily climate composites are very good,  so we look at its sea surface temperature setting or "surface skin" temperatures VS surface temperatures.


        NOAA May 4 2016.     Daily mean surface temperatures  "1000 mb" temperatures are too cold in East Siberian and North Barents seas,  North of Ellesmere and Greenland surface air 1000 mb is largely too cold.  There is a strange North of Wrangel Island surface air cold area spot and also compared to entire Chukchi Sea surface temperatures.  Basically if I am correct,  Remote Sensing surface temps algorithms daily means appear to have a mixing problem with land features.    Note Surface temperature  1000 mb Ta is indeed always warmer than top of ice Ti well away from land.

      Click on GIF image to expand and use your mouse pointer to make comparisons.

     If there is a calculation error with NOAA surface temperatures,  it would be "averaged out"  eventually because Ta>=Ti ,  a fact gained by multiple horizon observations,  this feature will show up over a longer term:


           NOAA  May 1-5 2016.  Composite mean makes it much harder to find Surface air 1000 mb air colder than top of sea ice.    The North of Wrangel Island temperature anomaly most likely was from thicker sea ice pressure height temperature difference.  Although,  North Barents Sea has still a smaller area of colder air especially East of Franz Josef Islands.

      Hypothetically,  the longer we average out the  likely Algorithm  error,  the more impossible it would be to find Ta < Ti.

               March 1 to May 5 2016,  literally impossible to find top of sea ice temperature
warmer than  surface air 1000 mb temperature.


   NOAA surface temperature looks better but still has small daily flaws.  

    

           May 9, 2016  NOAA daily composites offer surface air temperature feature which performs slightly better than 1000 mb,  if you click on extreme cold surface air temperature near land it will be likely erroneous, making surface air colder than ice.    Which has never been observed optically.


      Likewise looking back longer term:



            April 9-May 9 average   If you find a spot where Ta< Ti  ,  let me know.   There are none I can find.


    In short:

         NOAA remote sensing temperatures are quite good,  but I would look at every case when
sea ice is warmer than surface air,  double check the calculations and the physics.  I don't know if this is the error which causes sea ice models to err in making good melt projections.  A  4 C warmer sea ice  than surface temperature (Chukchi anomaly very top GIF above) would make the horizon extremely low and that has never been observed, on top of the underlying thermal physics which would be hard to explain.  WD May 7 and May 11, 2016

     

Sea ice refraction prime rule: top of sea ice is always colder or equal to surface air temperature

~Putting the proposed sea ice optical theory to the test
~Even when some part of sea ice column is always warmer than air (during winter).  
~Sea ice horizon never been observed below Astronomical Horizon has now an explanation.  

     The best way to sum up horizon refraction throughout the Arctic Ocean year is by this sketch once posted here:



Strictly by several years of observations,  a visual correlation was made with temperature profiles from sea water to upper air related to physical conditions of the horizon.  Notice top of sea ice temperature was never observed warmer than the air immediately above.  Only with the presence of sea water does the horizon elevation drop below the "Astronomical Horizon" ( orange line).   The Astronomical Horizon of any planet Earth location would permanently remain at the same unchangeable altitude if our planet did not have an atmosphere.

    Many years of sea ice horizon observations gave a proposed theory written here  and here.
The biggest feature of sea ice horizons happens when the sea ice horizon stops going down,  does not go below the Astronomical Horizon,   settles there until the sun lowers in the sky to set, only to spring up higher again.   Its the spring time great steady "LAN" horizon which may happen daily for a while after Local Apparent Noon.  When so,  the temperature profile at interface between ice and air  temperature is isothermal.    This feature also makes it possible for well informed sea Navigators to recognize the presence of sea ice without radars.

    Sea ice Buoys offer proof, despite their near or above ice thermistor problems.  Selecting a thermistor embedded in top of ice usually should give good results,  so without further a do,  lets use 2015 F at thermistor T5 (50 cm down from top of thermistor string):

Buoy 2015F August 13, 2015 to April 19 2016,  4 hour interval surface temperature  (in blue) Thermistor 5 (in red 50 cm down).
Temperature of sea ice was always Greater or Equal to surface air,  except for a few very rare interesting occasions. 

               If top of sea ice was always warmer than air,  there should be a permanently very low sea ice horizon.  This does not happen,  not only  because of upward thermal heat flux from sea which warms the lowest atmosphere causing a near surface inversion or a well above upper air temperature profile maxima.  The dark season thermal flux is stronger nearer to ice,  but there is an inversion right above, something cools the surface to air interface.   It is wonderfully complicated.   Heat Capacity of sea ice and snow is twice more than air.   Thermal Capacitance plays a role,   Heat Conductivity  and especially insulation properties of sea ice are very important.   Eventually,   the combination of properties cause top of the ice always colder than air,  as may be seen on your own house:


      Physics replicates itself with different matter,  in this case house insulation.   Note in blue,  top of insulation is always colder or equal than air except when too sunny.   Consider sea ice as insulation,  the same happens over the frozen sea.   But also again identical with middle of sea ice column as with buoy 2015f graph above, center of insulation layer is almost always warmer than air,  this is a good model proxy presentation for sea ice.   

   As observed optically following Local Apparent Noon (LAN) with the sun present,  the temperature lapse rate of the surface to air interface appears to become isothermal over sea ice,  the horizon  is at the Astronomical Horizon.  Considering an hypothetical, if top of  sea ice would remain cold,  unaffected by shortwave radiation,  the horizon would remain higher than Astronomical Horizon.    

     Finding a Buoy replicating the house insulation graph would be great.  However, there is a problem with sea ice buoys,  they seem affected by sun rays,  and there is few other considerations to take,  the exact position of the thermistor matters, the coldest layer may be at a certain height not always placed with a thermistor.  Lets try to idealize a true measurement of top of sea ice as much as possible (or in the snow layer next to it).   The only way around is to find measurements in darkness,  away from sun rays affecting the thermistor,  lets try close to the North Pole Buoy 2015l: 


       In Darkness 4 hr interval readings 2015l November 1 to 8 2015 1st thermistor called 31 (in blue)   is always colder than surface air (in red).




   2015l  December 1-7 2015,  always colder or equal.     Top thermistor wonderfully  matches optical physics observations well in darkness or spring.   Likewise,  I have filmed in darkness no ice horizons very close to astronomical horizon as in spring,  the warming of surface to air interface occurs rarely during the long Polar night.  


    2015l January 1-7 2016,  the data is overwhelming,  top of sea ice is always colder or equal to surface air.  [Or perhaps inside snow next to ice, but snow sensor did not seem operational].



    Sun presence might have affected a few readings,  2015l September 22-29 2015     

          Top of sea ice is always colder or equal than surface air,  this is a profound conclusion from refraction observations.   Adding a better view of  the complexity of sea ice thermal physics.    WD April 28 ,2016.  

2016 annual spring projection, made by sun disk observations and otherwise unorthodox means

~  Northern Hemisphere collapsing cold atmosphere
~ ENSO plays weather maker along with dwindling sea ice extent
~ Extra 2015-16 snowfall  a major role in twisting jet stream
~  2016 warmest consecutive year in history  known since beginning of March,  but not official till January 2017
~ 2008 Big Blue repeat,  cloud seeding theory confirmed yet again.


The sun is of course a giant thermometer, not only a source of energy.   Notice apparent lack of sunspots didn't cool anything though.



   Arctic deflated sun as seen through many atmospheres.  The sun and Earth atmosphere are telling how hot it is anywhere on our planet.   The same sun taken in the tropics at the same altitude would look a whole lot rounder.


Rare near dead center lone sunspot is the signature event of this spring. Can you tell which suns as posted above were upright?

Annual coming summer/fall/winter  projection:. 

First the projection, 

 

   Because it is so obvious,  2016 will be the warmest year in history despite  a forming LaNina. which is the most lethal combination for the survival of the Arctic Ocean ice pack.  Less North American tornados than average is expected because of collapse of cold air in the higher atmosphere,  despite it being very cold during January and February just past.  However there will be a return of Hurricanes hitting North American shores.   Rain for the west Coast of North America will resume to more normal levels until September.    Very hot summer  temperatures for the middle North American continent will extend towards the entire East coast.  NW Europe will be wet which makes it slightly cool,  but drier cold  fall.   Eurasia and Western Russia super heat waves are expected.

       The potential for the North Pole to be sea ice free at Minima coming mid September  has never been higher.  Arctic sea ice extent will be smaller than all time lowest record of 2012.   Clouds will span less in all regions of the world favoring droughts  and heat waves everywhere  even where they don't usually occur.   

      Winter coming will be at first very warm,  becoming bitterly cold in January,  and so will the sea ice recover rapidly but with far less multi-year ice.  

Prognosis:

         End of winter/early spring average vertical sun disk  size comparisons ending April 21, 2016

   What is the score? 

                2016 is  #1  at 15.45%.

                 #2 2015 at 11.82%  

                 #3 [2005, 2006 and 2013] at 10% 

                 #4  [2009, 2010, 2011]  at  8.18%

                                            5^th place 2012  7.27 %. 

          6.7%  should be considered a normal year to year fluctuation of all time average vertical sun disk maximum dimensions.  Data from 110 vertical sun disk decimal levels extending  from -0.9 to +10.9 degrees elevations, including 540 observations, above normal year acquisition numbers due to no clouds  currently continuing.  With about 42 sun disk measurements per degree elevation, each yearly vertical sun disk average is compared between years 2002 to 2016 inclusively (15 seasons). 

     What does this mean?  Vertical sun disks are expanded in a tropical atmosphere as opposed to much compressed for a polar atmosphere.  If there is a warming of the atmosphere in the polar regions,  vertical sun disks dimensions have to expand.  But not necessarily evenly at all sun elevations.  The truer measure of expansiveness is clearly depicted by comparing vertical sun disk dimensions from year to year.  Sun disks are another way of signaling over all temperature trends of the entire atmosphere from 2 times its actual vertical thickness to about 40 times.  It is the most precise depiction of warming since it incorporates huge atmospheric distances,  far more than any satellite or possibly radars.

       Year 2016 gave extraordinary results despite all time high levels of snow depth on sea ice and land surfaces.  This snow dates back to  October-November 2015.   Laid out more than twice thick than normal.  As a  good insulator,  thicker snow depth kept permafrost warmer and the sea ice thinner.  It also made the rising sun ineffective in warming surface air.  Despite more reflection to space, overall winter temperature averages were above normal.  Not by much, but above average.    Expanded sun disk dimensions mirrored the state of the atmosphere up to where the deeper snow had an impact.    All time average highest expansion averages occurred 12 times between 10 to 5 degrees elevations and 4 times  -1 to 4 degrees elevations.   Moreover,  the upper air above 5 degrees elevation has had many, the most numerous ever,  exploded sun disk sizes especially in the critically usually very cold Northwest atmosphere from Southern Cornwallis Island Nunavut  Canada.    The coldest high atmosphere air seems to have collapsed or warmed substantially.    This is a remarkable event and affects the outlook of coming weather everywhere over the Northern Hemisphere.  

            El-Nino event just past was largely felt by more clouds during the entire Arctic long night.

Unlike central Arctic Archipelago, the larger Arctic was found to be extremely warmed with large temperature anomalies easily more than 4 C in many regions.  ENSO reverted quickly towards La-Nina lately.  Replicating 2008 "big blue" event which was and consists numerous consecutive days without clouds.    Interruptions of this years “big blue” was only by encroaching cyclones,  there are no substantial cooling cloud spans about.   At season end,  mid  May, there should be nearly the same amount of sun disk observations than during  2008.  The 'big blue" event of 2008 had huge consequences for water puddles over sea ice.  

 Optical to remote sensing Correlations: 

 NOAA   essentially confirmed  the large warming of the stratosphere which was seen as unbelievable sun disk expansions,  especially with sun shots captured at higher elevations.    The latest bit of cooling was equally caught recently with the sun returning to more normal vertical diameters.  

The upper troposphere and stratosphere accounts to about 40% of sun disk refraction.  

      The seen warming occurred at 250 mb covering almost exactly the Archipelago.   But this was the same location where the coldest surface air persisted.  Very much conducive to little clouds.   A vertical temperature anomaly event from no clouds with deeper surface snow pack reflecting the gradually intensifying sun rays?    

   Where is summer cold Arctic air going to hang out?

       The imminent collapse of the Alaska to North Pole sector pack Ice will impact the jet stream.  But there are other factors largely related to current La-Nina trending.   Cloud seeding theory predicts less clouds for the Arctic when    ENSO  turns towards La-Nina,  as it has already occurred,  this favors Anticyclone genesis  as has happened especially above the Arctic Ocean gyre area.  Mid-April onwards should usually be a very cloudy Arctic Ocean sky,  characterized with hardly distinguishable geographic and pack ice lead features perceivable by satellite photos.    So far, this was not the case,  reinforcing again a  cloud seeding theory largely correct.  But note,  North Atlantic and Pacific  Ocean SST’s were cooled for a prolonged time period because of the same  cloud seeding reason when El-Nino was full blast, more clouds occurred over the Northern Oceans by enormous consecutive Polar Vortex cyclones.   These cooler vast areas of sea water will have an important impact just as well.   Past winter circulation pattern of North Atlantic to Pole cyclones favored a lot of moisture covering most of the Canadian Arctic Archipelago Southwards.  This same pattern likely gave less snow for Central Northern Eurasia, very unlike winter 2014-15 huge transcontinental pattern. 

 Arctic General circulation projections:

  

  Again I split it in three distinct periods:

 April  May:

        3 distinct Cold Temperature North Poles (CTNP) vortices  are expected.  2 will eventually collapse and only one will remain at sea ice Minima.  The current Arctic Dipole will largely remain in place for 4 distinct reasons:  Warm winter continued to spring with temperature to dew point ratio spread further apart, less cloud coverage because La-Nina trends,  mesoscale CTNP Polar vortices favor a High Pressure between them, with descending air above the Gyre High much warmer than normal.  

 June July:

 

  2 CTNP left with the largest wobbling like a top over the Canadian Arctic Archipelago.  The Jet stream more or less similar to spring fading away along where the coldest land of sea surfaces are. 

Note the  gyre High moving towards Russia mainly because of CTNP placement.  

August September

  Greenland  largest ice with Ellesmere becomes the center of Cold teamed with what is left of pack ice ,  Cyclones now  linger  over the Beaufort Gyre.  The big difference with last year is the diminished Polar jet stream not as high in latitude over the Pacific.  I'd expect some major heat wave action North Eurasia along with great cyclone diversions NE american continent.  

Recap:

  

         Consider 3 large geophysical events,  very strong El-Nino quickly replaced by La-Nina, the apparent vanishing clouds and a much warmed cloudy winter preceding a cloudless spring. Top this with  a huge chunk of sea ice melted once again and 2016 should be remembered as a wonderful hot summer where most people live,  especially for those appreciating heat waves,  but a disaster where the climatic systems are particularly vulnerable.  The weather weirdness factor will thus increase in ways not so kind to all.  WD April 24 2016 

     

Illusions and implications of a deeper Arctic snow layer

~Arctic surface snow depth turns out to be a very complex issue.

          The very powerful  El-Nino 2016 almost peaked at Christmas 2015,  therefore according to
the cloud seeding theory,  the Arctic was covered with clouds during the long night,  and so it was,  not only cloudy but snowy,   in particular during October and November (El-Nino Maximum temp anomaly).

    Snowfall was great,  in some places multiple times the monthly average record.  Ironically,  ENSO driven heat causation making more snowfall  created more sea ice extent than it would of otherwise.  Snow spreads to open sea water either from sky or drifts, as it floats just below the sea surface, it doesn't melt  since sea water is usually -1.8 C.   This floating snow enables ice to form more quickly.  Immersed snow is usually much colder than -2 C during Arctic winter.

   However if greater snow layer covers sea ice,  the snow insulates direct contact of air to ice,  the more insulation there is,   the less heat loss of sea water,  accretion slows a great deal more.

   In one case,  snow helps create sea ice,  in the other,   it slows the build up of sea ice thickness.

   Complexities continue especially in the spring time when the sun reappears after the long night.
After long night less ice fabrication because of greater snow insulation,  the opposite occurs,  the sun doesn't warm  the ice just as much as it could with a lesser more Arctic normal snow layer.   A melt stall occurs,  and this has just happened.  The latest maximum sea ice extent appears flat:



The warmer winter just past gave a less parabolic sea ice extent graph feature ,  the greater snowfall must have also flatlined the maximum extent.

    There is also lesser melting of the thinner in ice blackish leads even with a full forced "big blue"
event outgoing at this time.  Arctic big blue occurs when there is hardly any clouds for months,  this usually happens when ENSO trends towards La-Nina.  




EOSDIS april 1,2015  North of Beaufort sea appeared broken,  with many blackish leads and fractures.



Although 2014-15 was a warm winter,  this satellite photo of April 1, 2016 appears to suggest that the winter of 2015-16 was colder.  But it wasn't.  The illusion of less broken sea ice was done curtesy  of greater snowfall and winds drifting  snow on the sea ice more evenly.

       Spring 2016 sea ice is over all  thinner than 2015 all the way to the North Pole.  

   There are more features to the sea ice greater snow layer.  Refraction wise,  the horizon appears
usually higher at local apparent noon,  but lower in the evening on most occasions.   Sun rays
are not getting through to the ice as with a normal snow cover,  and this affects the entire surface to air interface thermal physics of the Arctic with significantly more snow.  

Finally this GIF animation compares the snow dilemma well:



      Although there appears to be no graph available for snow on top of sea ice,  this page here displays great snow cover anomalies on land next to the Arctic Ocean.

WD April 3, 2016

Arctic Ocean Archipelago sea First Melt 2016 , earliest in recent historical record

~There is also some unfamiliar gyrations or lack thereof of the sea ice horizon

    What is sea ice first melt?   Best explained by observations:


March 9 2013,  a diurnal variation of the sea ice horizon.    This is newly formed first year sea ice from the worse melt in sea ice history in 2012.     At left the horizon was lowest,  following sun ray bombardment at local apparent noon, this happens when the thermal structure of the sea surface to air interface has an isothermal structure.  the air immediately above the ice has a lapse rate nearing 0 degrees C/km.   As the evening approached concurrently with the lower sun elevation something not
immediately obvious happens,  the horizon rose( middle)  by a very significant 1.3' (minutes of arc),  this would be if the sea ice physically rose 18.6 meters  40 kilometers away.    At sunset (right picture)  the horizon didn't rise much further in fact dropped a bit,  this means the ice was not so thick.     The sea ice core temperature could be very much colder,  11' of arc horizon boost was measured once in the same location.

    Sea ice core temperature is an important player in sea ice horizons.  Thermodynamically,
with lab conditions, air cools faster than ice (in a dark place,  like a cloudless night),  when not warmed by sun rays,  this would lower the horizon if so.  But the ice usually has a significantly colder core than its surface warmed by solar radiation.  This core cools the noon warmed sea ice surface faster than the air, which in turn cools the interface air faster than the layer of air just above it.   A colder layer of air under a warmer one is called an inversion.  An observer can "see" this inversion by studying the horizon.    

    A very old sea ice pan,  say 10 meters thick, has a colder core temperature even outlasting the Arctic summer (the ice survives!),  thicker sea ice can have much colder core temperature,  and conversely, the horizon may rise.    The opposite is so,  the thinner the sea ice ,  the warmer the core and the lesser the horizon shift:


March 9 2016,  the sea ice horizon did not move despite partially sunny conditions (3' of arc),  and some haze,  the same thing happened on sunny  March 7.  Therefore ,  this is first melt conditions.  Whereas the horizon like this has not been measured since there was open water last September and or thin sea ice last October .


   First melt in early March?  

         Repeatable horizon measurements at the same altitude as when open water temperatures  was equal to the air is the definition of the first melt,  When so,  accretion stops, and the bottom may melt since sea water is as warm as bottom salty sea ice.

2015 first melt was March 26,  2014 April 10,  2013 March 23,  2012 March 17, 2011  April 15 and 2010 March 19.  

  Implications

       Without a doubt 2016 has the thinnest ice,  thinner than 2012.   And the sea ice causing the least variations in March,  the coldest historical sea ice period.   If there is no massive cooling about,  this thinner sea ice means earliest arrival of melt ponds with earliest break ups all over the Arctic.  If we follow the South Cornwallis Island record carefully,  the second earliest first melt year was 2012.   WD March 9,2016

2016 Arctic sea ice thickness may be thinnest in history?

~Satellite sensors and refraction method match results.

~On a wider scale 2016 is heading towards a furtherance of  all time melt records.

    After 2012 super synergistic melt.  Arctic sea ice looked doomed.  But the last thing most experts forgot, the one reason why 2012 sea ice melted so much was that all the weather elements were inclined to do so.  Compaction was nearly as ideal as 2007,  clouds and cyclones were scarce,  along with clear blue 24 hour solar ray melting.    The once thick expansive mighty multi-year ice pack  was limited to a thin sliver of the NW Arctic Archipelago coast.  And so it looked like the next few years we should have seen a whole lot of less sea ice.  That wasn't so, not because weather varies from summer to summer,  but especially,  ironically,  it takes

thick sea ice to create summer Arctic dipoles creating great compactions.  The next few melt seasons were lesser,  because there was far lesser compaction and much more clouds (cooling) especially from ever so persistent summer cyclones over the Arctic Ocean.  

   Despite very poor summer insolation seasons for 2013,2014 and to a lesser extent for 2015.  

Sea ice thickness early February 2016  appears significantly diminished everywhere in the Arctic but for near the North Pole.  The reason why PIOMAS appears to indicate much more over all sea ice thickness is a mystery to me.  The US Navy seems to have a better grasp on the measure of things.

   PBS latest NOVA    "Mystery Beneath the ice"  was about plummeting krill stocks in Antarctica.  

But they reiterated a huge problem with sea ice,  its not uniformly stratified on its surface or bottom.  

The way to measure sea ice thickness over its entire region may be very complex,  and definitely requires satellites with resolution capacities approaching 1 meter.  But there is another way,  horizon refraction measurements capture the lapse rate of the sea ice to air interface instantly,  ultimately simplifying the effort of measuring things meter by meter.  Instead an horizon photograph 

encapsulates the actual over all thickness of the sea ice as well as the temperature of its air right above, over a huge area at once.  

     Now let us compare the US NAVY with horizon refraction method:

February 6 2013,  the sun just appeared,  but its rays penetrate many equivalent atmospheres,  its effect was still felt further to the South,  and a layer of warm air spread Northwards.  Depending on how thick the ice is,  the sea ice horizon will vary in height.   The thinner the ice,  the weaker the inversion lapse rate immediately above, the lesser the horizon rises.   Right after the great melt of 2012 the sea ice of the Northwest Passage from Southwest Cornwallis Island appeared thin.  

February 6 2016,  the Northwest passage sea ice appears thinner,  each line 3.3' of arc.  

The shallowest of horizon height gains ever for this time of the year.   It is almost first melt time a full 40 days before the earliest day observed.  

These zoomed sections of the top maps above (February 6 2013 (left), from center to right is the same area on February 6 2016 .  Cornwallis Island is seen second island from the extreme left where the thin line is the observation ray path from land towards the left (the NorthWest passage).  2013 had thicker sea ice,  2016 much thinner.   Likewise the ice horizon of February 6 2013 was higher than same day in 2016.  

            Although there is still a lot of sea ice,  this years outlook is very bleak.  The only thing stopping a further expansive melt are clouds and the positioning of cyclones during the summer season. WD February 8, 2016

Northerm Hemisphere temperature projection successful yet again.....

~The warm year was not only because of El-Nino  

  Todays NY Times headline: 

2015 Was Hottest Year in Historical Record, Scientists Say

And so it was 

From NASA GISS :

2014    95   66  118  105   90   83   74   90   86   96   84  109     91  89     80  104   82   89  2014
2015   114  115  123  102   99  104   88   99  112  124  136  148    113 110    113  108   97  124  2015
Year   Jan  Feb  Mar  Apr  May  Jun  Jul  Aug  Sep  Oct  Nov  Dec    J-D D-N    DJF  MAM  JJA  SON  Year

      According to NASA 2015 Northern Hemisphere January to December average was +0.22 C greater than 2014 during the same period.  A staggering near 20% jump. El-Nino's influence can be read at year end.  The beginning of the year was likely more at the state of warming already in Earth's atmosphere.  The other warmest El-Nino was 1998: 

1998    66  105   71   88   67   74   78   74   62   56   59   79     73  71     75   75   75   59  1998

   ENSO peak to peak temperature maximums are simply not explaining the 0.4 C temperature gain since 1998.   

From EH2r Refraction prediction April 18, 2015: 

"Because of overwhelming refraction heat signals, 2015 will be warmest year in Northern Hemisphere history - by a significantly larger margin than 2014. No High Arctic observations over Cornwallis Island gave a consistent sign of cooling, despite being right near center of coldest atmosphere in the world. This forecast is not at all counting on El-Nino rising again, which undoubtedly guaranties more heat."

   The writing of 2015 warming was in sun disks well before year end.   However, refraction prognosis methods are not only to be  found with astronomical objects.  2016 is already significantly warmer than 2015 by another way to judge the warmth 

of the planet......  With sea ice.    More on this soon.  WD January 20 , 2016

In total darkness Mid-winter Record shattering heat surge over the Arctic Ocean

~There were Cyclonic incursions in the past , but there was more sea ice thickness
~Density Weighted Temperatures of the Northern Hemisphere undeniably demonstrate a warmed planet especially since 1998
~There is no sun over the Arctic yet we witness no "IRIS" effect when the planet is at its warmest


First we look back to late 1980 when the multi-year ice was very thick:


 It was a warm Christmas over Siberia in 1980,  much warmer than over the Canadian Arctic.
600 mb temperatures courtesy NOAA are very close to the Density Weighted Temperature (DWT)  of the entire troposphere.  Temperature picture December 26 (left) was not much different compared to December 29 (right), The Polar region in total darkness coldest air morphed a bit but everywhere temperatures of the entire atmosphere was colder than -20 C while in the Canadian Arctic as cold as -40 C almost all the way to the North Pole.  DWT 's clearly show the center of the Polar vortex,  where all Northern Hemisphere circulation driving winds turn counterclockwise around it.



  El-Nino 1998 was strongest,  likely stronger than 2015 to date,  already we see the circulation pattern markedly different same December 26-29 comparison with 1980.  Note the beginning of a Cyclone affecting the DW Temperature profile of the atmosphere about Iceland on December 29.
In 1998 the sea ice started to decline in thickness and extent.  Its a marking year.  Winter was still
strong during the holiday season.  Day to day variations of DWT's were very reasonably predictable and not dramatic.


El-Nino 2015 is similar to 1998,  except for a larger warmer sea temperature anomalies for the North Pacific.   Yet December 26-29 DWT image is staggeringly different,  as well as sea ice thickness and extent:

     The gradual   but rapid decrease in sea ice thickness since 1998 has had a major playing role  decreasing the build up to winter.

            From December 26 to 29 2015,  the entire Arctic atmosphere significantly warmed in total darkness!   An important Low pressure system,  one following many,  easily penetrated the North Pole region which had DWT temperatures usually close to -40 C,  now more like -8 C,  again this is the temperature of the entire atmosphere not just the surface, in the past not changing fast in a matter of days.   In total -no sun - darkness the usual pattern was stable DWT's.    Another marked feature of current 2015-16 season is this darkness warming,  never readily noticeable in the past,  as winter progresses it usually gets colder not warmer!  Now we noticed with ease  warming bursts at least 3 times since November 2015.  The Cold Temperature North Pole (CTNP) and Arctic has warmed significantly since 1998.  This allows Cyclones to penetrate a weakened state of winter which is made in great part in the Arctic,  this affects weather world wide.  But now, this is new,  we witness temperature warming surges causing incredible dynamic changes undoubtedly which will continue to cause tremendously different weather scenarios,  some good for warm temperature lovers,  but will cause many severe stressful events for human infrastructures as much as on all ecosystems.WD January 2, 2015