Annual SPRING/SUMMER projection by potent refraction methods and other means

~Its hard to interpret complex thermal systems,  even harder to foresee what they will do.

~Warmest summer in history to come makes it somewhat easier.


Here is Unique in the world Refraction Prognosis:


SKY Colours - Aerosols:
   

    Double Katimavik sunset, a very artistic mesmerizing   end of Arctic day.   Katimavik is an Inuktitut word,  from the language of Inuit people who live here,  meaning meeting place,  a once upon a time real place in 1967 Montreal.   Echoes from the past repeated visually along with multi-coloured flashes above ( illuminated gravity waves ducts),  was on March 26,  2015, a typical Northwest passage view from Southern Cornwallis Island.  

     Sky clarity throughout winter\spring 2014-2015 was uncanny.  Either revealing deep twilight brightness from distant weather systems refracted light, or drier sunsets devoid of extreme redness,  very little moisture in the air does that:

   Green flash above the smaller Katimavik along a red flash below.  With main sun disk image compressed vertically close to 20 times.  

    These complex optical physics factors have significant meaning.  The compressed sun (picture above) kept its true colour with 20 times more atmospheric thickness.  The high elevation green flash is a very delicate structure often not seen green because of aerosols or water vapour.  Winter\Spring 2015 North American Arctic had exceptionally clean air more often than not.   This implicates extreme warming of the Arctic  as the sun rises progressively higher till 24 hour days,  clear low in concentration aerosol days,  will make surface air warmer.   

Sunsets mostly backed Southwards:

       Exact sun positions when they disappear reveal the nature of the distant surface to air interface.  In the Arctic,  the rising spring sun creates a warm sea ice surface which cools rapidly in the evening on transient days between the long night and the midnight sun.  Sea ice surface is cooling faster than air because of its colder than air inner core,  when the core is warmed by conduction the surface ice cools,  then the air right above does likewise.    This creates an isothermal inversion which rises the horizon.  If there is a strong inversion,  the day lengthens,  if there is a weak one or none the day shortens.   Longest days are noted when the sun is seen when it is far below the horizon.  A much longer day has a sun visible greater than 1.6 degrees below the horizon.   In 2001 there was 10 extremely late sunsets,  in 2015 ,  2.     Last year there was  4.      

      A lack of cooling, thermal radiation escaping to space, over the entire winter and early spring makes sea ice core temperatures warmer wise.  With less of a 'heat sink' sea ice,  inversions become weaker, therefore the sun shifts southwards at sunset;

              This sunset in 2004 was picked to compare with 2015's  greatest Northwards Shift.   It lasted till the sun was last seen at 2.09 degrees below astronomical horizon and located 285 degrees azimuth,  15 degrees Northwards of true geographical West.  

   11 years later on same March 24,  the sun disk at Akhet (when the sun touches the horizon) was much larger,  this is an indication of weaker over all inversions.  Sunset was 1.9 degrees below the horizon,  the latest day length extension by refraction since sunrise from the long night of 2014-15.  It was last seen 283.21 degrees azimuth,  a full 1.8 degrees Southwards then when a past colder sea ice was formed over the winter of 2003-04.   1.8 degrees is a huge distance, roughly equivalent to 4 sun diameters.    

Sunset without toboggan sun slide:

    When the land surface is much warmer, sunsets look like what is seen further South,  they skim the horizon Northwards less.  Arctic sunsets usually give a show of extreme deformations uncommon anywhere else on Earth except on high mountains or Antarctica.  One of these is the below 0 degrees sun line sliding down a hill,  when the sun is usually long gone completely below the horizon in say a place like New York,  the Arctic does this :

   2008 was the last time the sun line was seen sliding down hill for about 1 minute,  a classified phenomena called toboggan sun,  but on initial anniversary in 2001 it slid further down for 3 and a half minutes.  

       2015 on same March 31 day,  the sunset was 7 minutes earlier than 2008,  a very significant shortening of the day. The toboggan stopped short on top of the hill not touching  the downward slope,  as if a true toboggan on rocks instead of snow,  but at end of March 2015 the sandstone gravel hill top was indeed barer and much warmer  killing the chance of surface to air steep inversion ducting.   For Toboggan Sun to exist,  the ground surface must be very much colder.    

Sea Ice Horizon permutations:

    Recently learned fantastic discovery of judging whether underside ice is melting or not reveals very interesting relations with weather and whether sea ice underside melts  even when temperatures outside are as cold as -35 C.  I am in the process of discovery from horizon elevation data lines,  whether more melting happens when its not windy,  windy, cloudy, or  with an optically thick aerosol rich  atmosphere.  What is reasonably known is subsequences after First Melts.  A very low September Minima starts from a very early consistent daily cyclic thermal process.  If sea ice horizon does progressively maintain the astronomical horizon and or increase in time maintaining this line every next day,  the minima will be greatly reduced.  So far,  2015 post FM true astronomical horizon  increased in duration every day when observed.  It signals hard to stop increasing diurnal melting periods.  Like any engine, when an engine sputters its not as warm,  as sea ice was in the spring of 2014 when astronomical line was seen erratic only more consistent in later May.   A big Arctic Sea ice minima begins with a strong essentially regular  ever increasing in time under-melt.  

     The Northwest passage of 2015 has thick First Year ice
because of a lack of snow cover by less snowfall and greater sublimation caused by unstable air from much more common than usual surface to air adiabatic temperature profiles.    Despite 2015 sea ice greater accretion,  its thickness was nowhere near past average thickness spanning the same distance of the light rays from the setting sun, the atmospheric light path.  And so, sea ice horizon rises are directly proportional to sea ice thickness.  

Flying saucer type sunset is not in the air,  but aerosols 
masked the ice horizon risen 11.6 arc minutes,  March 27 2004.  

   Near last sighting of the sun with 2015 clear air revealing ice horizon risen 5.8 arc minutes on March 27. 

    The difference between March 2015 and 2004 was set at autumn 2014 and 2003,  the Northwest passage of September 15,  2014  had wide open water spanning its entire distance.  2003 NWP on same September day was clogged with multi-year ice:

      
    What is the Score?;  Climate Projection "Howitzer" vertical sun disk expansions  post- Arctic long night results:

Frequency of maximum expanded average sun disks represented by 110 sun elevations from -.9 to 10 degrees 

              2015,  2013, 2006 and 2005 11.82%
                                  2010 10.91%
                                2012 and 2011 10%

        From 425 observations compared with about 4000,  clear weather was strong since end of February.

    With no apparent temperature change,  2002 to 2015 vertical sun disks would be 8.1% expanded from year to year.  The last 5 of 6 years had more expanded sun disks than the previous 10 combined.  

    An apparently totally new phenomena has been surging in the past 5 years,  when a lower sun in the sky gives a greater size vertical sun disk than at a higher elevation.
This defines an area of the lower atmosphere with a very warm layer of air,  as the sun passes through this layer, it expands in size.   There were many such captures of thicker warmer lower layers in the spring of 2015.  The exact impact of such layering of warmer air is hard to fathom. 
   
From all this and more sources;   the Projection:

      Because of overwhelming refraction heat signals,
2015 will be warmest year in Northern Hemisphere history -  by a significantly larger margin than 2014.  No High Arctic observations over Cornwallis Island gave a consistent sign of cooling, despite being right near center
of coldest atmosphere in the world.  This forecast is not at all counting on El-Nino rising again,  which undoubtedly guaranties more heat. 

   Sea ice adds complexities,  remaining Arctic pack  is estimated thicker than past few years,  yet we are presently  at all time low extents.    Horizon height measurements confirmed that first year sea ice of 2015 is indeed thicker than last year in the Canadian archipelago NW passage,  but not because it was colder,  but rather from dried up North Pole in provenance air as depicted here for nearly the entire dark season and current spring.   It was astonishing,  there was a nearly continuous flow of dry but adiabatic air (December onwards) which sublimated the sea and land surface snow cover of almost the entire North American Arctic sector.  There is thicker first year sea ice in the Canadian Arctic sector compared to last year,  but given that winter just past had one day with surface temperatures below -40 C over Cornwallis Island Nunavut Canada  (for only a few hours in duration),  local sea ice  thickness didn't exceed all time maximums.   

    However,  extent is really more important because without ice sheet cover the sun warms the darker Arctic sea enormously due to more exposure time to sun rays which are very important,   even when the sun is low in the sky,  remember the Arctic has naturally very low concentrations of atmospheric aerosols, especially this spring.  

    Sea ice or lack thereof has a greater affinity to position the Cold Temperature North Pole.  It is thus projected that Beaufort,  Chukchi and East Siberian seas will have a thorough loss of sea ice, leaving the core pack more or less compressed against the Canadian Archipelago to a lesser overall extent than 2012.   The larger question would be the North Pole?  Would it be ice free?  The answer to this very elusive ,  frustrating, furtive and difficult forecast will be at end of this page.  

   General circulation conditions are foreseen in three distinct periods and completely driven by the location of the CTNP (s) and later by  El-Nino which should warm but darken Arctic skies.  Weather throughout the Northern Hemisphere will happen from where-ever the CTNP will be.

ARCTIC dedicated generalized projection;
   
 Period one  April-May 2015:

    2 CTNP's  (Center of capital "C" in purple) will essentially maintain a pan-Arctic dipole by the flow they create.  More or less a continuation of winter past scenario, minus extremely long Southwards freezing flows.   The jet stream will be frequently very North of Alaska dipping down at times at the Can-Am border further East.  This should make Coastal BC wet with not so potent remnant Pacific in origin cyclones eventually merging and diluting Gulf stream cyclones towards Ireland and the UK (not so wet a spring there).    North of Alaska High will be ideal for melting Pacific Sector Arctic Ice.  

  
     Period 2,  June-July 2015:

    Approaching pre-merging North-bound CTNP's Isolate 
the pan Arctic Dipole further.  East-Siberian sea ice melt prime time.  Not so good for Beaufort area with Bering sea now cleared of sea ice.   Here we can realize N-E passage quick opening in the Pacific Arctic sector.    Not so  for Novaya Zemlya  to Pole region where the ice will be largely immobilized and melting in place.    Summer not wet 2012 style for UK and Ireland ,  but definitely cool and grey for Scotland as opposed to Souhwards.  A Super hot Central North America is foreseen because of polar jet stream way in the Northwest Territories with Pacific in origin  floes much more dried by a greater summer surface temperature-dew point spread.   Central Canadian Arctic should be very hot by July. 


Period 3,  August-September 2015:

       Merged single but weak CTNP roughly between Franz Joseph and Spitsbergen Islands, principally because of  North Pacific and El-Nino warmth influence.   Beaufort circulation again not so favorable ,  but with sun rays from clear skies damage done for months and warmed wide open adjoining open seas will make Beaufort ice free.  NW Pacific Cyclones will penetrate the Arctic Ocean 2012 style by mid-August.  With the polar jet stream weak but regenerating come September.    A CTNP in such a location should cause wettest period of the year for Ireland and UK.   driest for BC Canada, and possible Hurricane diversion towards the NE coast of US.   Arctic Cyclones moving Southwards will cool some parts of Russia and mid west North America.  This despite El-Nino clouding the Arctic,  Arctic Cyclones are not very good to foster tornadoes or severe weather.   

    From this projection we can estimate Canadian NW passage open first,  NE later with the often usual Kara Sea ice bridge block vanishing last.   

    El-Nino and North Pacific warm sst moisture is the only feature promoting summer Arctic cooling,  sea ice melt would have been much more vast if extra clouds are not promoted.  However during period 2,  El-Nino and North Pacific warmth will increase Arctic temperature to dew point spreads favoring clearer skies.   


Tornadoes Typhoons and Hurricanes

   There is a need for Cold Upper Air vs Hot surface air for tornadoes.  The seemingly obvious lack of very cold Upper Air due to a very weak therefore warm Stratospheric Polar Vortex (just about to vanish),  and much increased density weighted temperatures throughout most of North America  is not favorable for a fierce tornado season at usual peek periods, so hopefully less of them than probability statistics would predict.  Typhoons will be unfortunately great in numbers in the Pacific,  while Atlantic Hurricanes may be rare but for very late in its season increasing the chance  to be diverted by a High pressure block over the Atlantic favoring a landing Northwards.  

Finally ,  the North Pole

      Hardest for last,  the North Pole will be partially open like a more expanded version of 2013,  with more open water than broken sea ice,  essentially open if defined by
accessible by a non icebreaking ship sailing from the Pacific or Atlantic.  WD 18 April 2015 

First High Arctic SEA ICE Underside Melt 2015

~Earlier than 2014 and 2011 later than 2010 and 2012

~ Made different by lack of surface snow

~ Interpretations from multi-coupled thermal systems made simple by one horizontal line.

    First sea ice underside melt (FM) happens after the long Arctic night when there was 

a continuous accretion of sea ice only interrupted by passing warm Arctic Cyclones.  Following Polar long night sunrise,  the sea ice horizon is always observed elevated  compared to true astronomical horizon which occurs when the sea (ice/land) surface temperature is equal to the air immediately above.  The main characteristic of the first underside melt is that it is observed never lower than true astronomical horizon unless the entire ice column temperature is greater than surface air.   In Arctic Spring, sea ice is a "heat sink"  because it tends to be always colder than sea ice and air,  but when there is no longer thermal emissions from ice towards air,  the underside melts.  This gives an apparent "noon" pause in horizon height variations until the sun lowers in the evening,   the horizon appears to rise greatly at every sunset or lower sun (when there is a midnight sun).  The process usually continues the next sunny or even cloudy days until complete melting happens.  

         From FM observation onwards the underside melt is usually observed to last gradually longer day by day,  lasting a few minutes on the first day,  eventually taking on hours as spring progresses.  From FM onwards,  sea ice may vanish if warmer air, water and sun rays focus on the colder ice column.  Once the ice gone,  the horizon may be observed lower than true astronomical horizon, this happens when surface air temperature is colder than sea surface temperature.   

     This refraction based observation method helps analyze the true nature of the sea ice to air interface - it is an instant analysis of  thermal geophysics spanning a huge distance. 

It is foremost the over all  encapsulation of the winter  climate just freshly past;      

  We look back,  and find out the significance in yearly first melt dates.                                      

2010 (top spring photo) had El-Nino during winter,   FM's don't happen earlier because it's warmer, rather a matter of all thermal physics,  from sea water, ice thickness, ice colour,   snow coverage, air temperature,  solar radiation,  cloud cover,  near surface convection/inversions, aerosols and finally the location of the Cold temperature North Pole over winter/spring.  2010 had a particular first melt aftermath,   excepting 2012,  stronger and longer than the others. Over all sea ice was thinner.    2011 (2nd from top) had nowhere as warm a winter as 2012,  the first melt was captured April 15,  with following extremely consistent progressive melt periods (continuing all the way to a large minima decrease).   2012 was fascinating by earlier tendencies of near first melt occurrences by late February, it occurred on March 12, along with  subsequent regular strong melting,  as strong as 2010.   But the clue for a great sea ice melt to come is in the tendencies towards the true astronomical horizon  especially very early on.  2013 had very inconsistent post FM underside melting.   Again the first date of true astronomical horizon did not matter as much as what happens before and after the recorded date.   March 19 was early ,  but what followed marked the September  sea ice minima in advance, there was no strong consistent underside thawing,  despite regular adiabatic near refraction observations.  Another clue of a very cloudy Arctic summer to come.  Projecting the future Arctic climate more precisely requires multiple sets of different observation events.  

    2014 post mortem:

   

   April 3 2014,  no sign of any first melt,  was late compared to previous year,  local apparent noon picture (left) has just as high an horizon as 3 hours later.   Vertical vertice  horizontal lines are spaced 3.3 minutes of arc apart.   2014 was the year of the Polar Vortex made popular by weather medias.  But what mattered was the location of the coldest atmosphere in the world.  During Spring 2014,  it was right over Cornwallis Island Nunavut Canada where the pictures were taken.  

   What a difference a week makes.   I interpreted this late FM (right) as the return of burgeoning anticyclonic activity,  in part true,  but it was equally the presence of the Cold Temperature North Pole, lesser clouds and aerosols.  But subsequent daily melting was more consistent than post FM 2013.    

2015 breaking news from the sea ice horizon:

    March 26 2015, NW passage first melt with some early tendencies nearing true astronomical horizon starting 2 weeks prior.  Horizon height (left) is equal to whence the temperature of sea water and surface air was equal on september 10 2014 (right),   the same horizon height has returned announcing melting and the open iceless sea to come. 

    Next week:  the meaning of all this with respect to Northern Hemisphere coming summer weather and Arctic ice minima projection..    WD April12 ,2015 

Review of last years projections (in Red)

"Summer early winter 2014 Refraction and by other means Projection"  2015 review

~WHAT is the SCORE?

~Distinct Upper air pattern will shape late spring and summer weather for much of the Northern Hemisphere.

~El-Nino come or come later may not matter.

~Tornado season looks normal or better. Typhoons Galore not Hurricanes

"What is the score? From 390 refraction observation comparisons with previous seasons 2002-2013:

#1 2005 13.64%
#2 2014-2013-2010 12.73%
#3 2011 11.82%
#4 2012-2009 10.91%
#5 2006 10% all time maximas

of 110 decimal elevation degree levels, 2005 had the most expanded sun disk levels followed closely by 2014-2013 and 2010. The warmest sun disk expansions in Arctic recent history (from 2002 to 2014) all occurred during the last 5 years at 61%, compared to the previous 8 years. If the whole Northern Hemisphere temperature remained average from year to year the yearly mean would be about 7.7%. "

"NH Temperature Projection for 2014: 2nd warmest year in history without El-Nino, #1 warmest with a new El-Nino mid-summer onwards."

NASA Giss  Northern Hemisphere 2014 average temperature was #1.  Sundisk differential refraction method scores another win,  batting nearly 1000 in baseball terms over several years of such predictions.     

 "Where will be this Summer's Cold Temperature North Pole?   

       "The  C.T.N.P.  zone is actually the biggest single contributor of weather throughout the Northern Hemisphere, it is the heart of the Polar Vortex.   There is CTSP in the Southern Hemishere which does likewise.  As in March 2014 the CTNP was hanging a lot about mid central Quebec,  and gave all kinds of "normal winter of old" weather.  For the folks in NW Europe a summer CTNP at about  Spitsbergen gives buckets of rain especially over the British Isles.     But it seems likely the CTNP to hang about Northern Ellesmere and Greenland, because greater sea ice thickness over Arctic Ocean Basin has been and will continue to help spawn High Pressure systems there.  CTNP over Northern Ellesmere should mainly position the jet stream to the Northwards between Iceland and Ireland.   Although it looks like the rain will return to UK like the summer of 2012,  perhaps less than but certainly plenty grey and wet.  For the shivering Northeastern Americans,  a nice very hot summer awaits,  drier after a wet cool spring.    But it is actually the position of the CTNP which will decide where the jet stream will meander.  An Arctic Dipole will melt the sea ice greater than 2012, the North Pole will see open water,  again like in 2013 when the North Pole was actually a zone of  very loose pack ice,    but this time the sea ice will compress or compact,  leaving a wide open water view of a Pole area not exposed to open water for millennia."

"But it seems likely the CTNP to hang about Northern Ellesmere and Greenland, because greater sea ice thickness over Arctic Ocean Basin has been and will continue to help spawn High Pressure systems there. "

Actual location:

CTNP was over Northern Ellesmere and Greenland but also on the other side  of 0 meridian over Franz Joseph Islands.  Explaining the polar circulation of the entire summer.    The systems rotated slower than 2013,  giving a chance for High pressures to build up over the Arctic Gyre area.   

2013  had a very strong Cold temperature North Pole,  this gave a continuous stream of Cyclones mainly from the North Atlantic.   Summer 2013 could not 

have had a great melt because of the cloud coverage combined with anti Arctic Ocean Gyre circulation.   Or Gyre shearing/stalling.   

       2007 CTNP's were even weaker than 2014,  this allowed a great calm over 

the Gyre area.    A definite pro-gyre circulation,  making high pressure systems proficient given the lack of moisture input to create clouds over the entire 90 E and W quadrant towards the Pacific Arctic .  

    

       The Ultimate melt scenario 2012,  had the weakest circulation possible. 

A single weak CTNP meant very little moisture input from the Atlantic,  lowering Polar cloud coverage and Cyclonic circulation,  which meant Ireland and UK water deluge   .       Despite a modest El-Nino not in time to seed clouds enough 

on time to slow the onslaught.  

"An Arctic Dipole will melt the sea ice greater than 2012, the North Pole will see open water,  again like in 2013 when the North Pole was actually a zone of  very loose pack ice,    but this time the sea ice will compress or compact,  leaving a wide open water view of a Pole area not exposed to open water for millennia."

       No success with the North Pole once again,  the only recurring prediction problem  I really have was covered with ice.  But the said compression did occur very near the Pole:

    Cryosphere Today 2013 extra cloud anti-gyre circulation minima had loose packed sea ice with compression coming late in the melt season.  2014 was somewhat similar but had far greater compaction and a greater presence of Gyre turning Anticyclones.  The result was a compressed core of pack ice with loose

peripheral pack much more pushed towards the North Atlantic.  There was a stronger dipole.  The matter of a wide open North Pole is a matter of probability

likely soon to happen.    Summer 2014 CTNP's were modest but strong enough to have cooled the start of the melting season by clouds from the Atlantic.   The core 

pack at minima 2014 (deep purple above right) is likely the 2015 minima look.   

"Et Tu ENSO?

     Last year saw the most violent typhoon in history,  Haiyan.   Last year also had no El-Nino as well as no Hurricane season to speak of,  but there was a split personality syndrome;  El-Nino to the North , La-Nina South of equator,  this continues today:"

      NOAA/NESDIS  April 17 2014 ENSO suffers again a split personality similar to last year: 

"Except there is a difference,  the Polar Vortex has shown a dissimilar circulation pattern to last year,  so expect a different result.  The PDO especially from the North Pacific warming is 1.6 points higher.   ENSO variations triggers weather but weather patterns affect ENSO moods."

    "April 19, 2014 Polar Tropopause clouds,  higher than Cirrus some appear white some dark,   these are reflections from horizontally Polarized light,  they are a wild mix of chemical clouds, ice crystals and cloud condensation nuclei.  If they exist higher in the sky during twilight the more likely El_Nino is happening.  Right now, at about 7 degrees above the horizon they exist more from a very warm North Pacific and Atlantic,  during an El-Nino they can cover the horizon sky for more than 40 degrees elevation.

     Already in the cards,  more typhoons,  less hurricanes than normal.   If ENSO turns to be a completely formed El-Nino,   the coming winter will be much warmer grey and wetter (yes lots of rain and snow),  if the spilt personality continues (unlikely),   a winter much like the one just past will revisit but with  different CTNP persistent position,.  WDApril 20-21, 2014"



    A mild El-Nino ensued over this winter just past,  CCN, PSC or PTC clouds (in photo right above) were not seen alike  this spring (2015) in the wake of a small La-Nina Blitz in he Southern Pacific Equator.  Which is just recently turning back towards El-Nino.  There is a lag in seeding clouds appearance and or disappearance of a month or so. ENSO "split personality"  at the equator languished at 2014 end of year.   Beginning of 2015 was excessively cloudy in the Arctic.  Only changing at the same time when El-Nino of 2014-15 weakened.  

About Tornadoes Hurricanes and Typhoons:

 "  
 This means that the Coldest atmospheric zone is largely surface based,  not influenced by a much colder Stratosphere.  This implies a weaker North American tornado season,  in the one part because the ground air is colder,  in the other the much required colder stratosphere is absent:

NOAA"



     Tornado statistics for 2014; 827,  2013; 908, 2012; 939 and 2011 1691.   By "weaker" I meant with previous year.  Tornado science is well advanced,  I propose 
here a method to enhance the number of tornadoes forecast for the coming season.  Of which 2 main extra parameters from the Arctic should be closely watched,  namely temperature of the stratosphere along with the strength of the Polar stratospheric vortex, both are important because they contribute to dT/dZ the lapse rate stability-or not- of the upper atmosphere.  The more a colder Arctic Upper atmosphere the worse the tornado season:

2011 stratosphere was indeed very cold which came along with a very strong Polar Vortex,  was not the case in 2013 and 2014,  this set a favorable fewer in numbers tornado season .  This is the third yearly tornado  projection which panned out nicely. 

Finally 

"Already in the cards,  more typhoons,  less hurricanes than normal.   If ENSO turns to be a completely formed El-Nino,   the coming winter will be much warmer grey and wetter (yes lots of rain and snow),  if the spilt personality continues (unlikely),   a winter much like the one just past will revisit but with  different CTNP persistent 
position,.  WDApril 20-21, 2014."

  In 2014, hurricanes were less numerous,  if not scarce (6) ,  while typhoons numerous strong and outright scary, by typhoons I meant the entire Pacific (including what is called hurricanes). WD April 5,2015  

  


   

ENSO Arctic; To cloud and cool or To clear and melt?

~All time low extent maxima may be twinned with perfect melt conditions likely for a little while.  

    We go back to 2010 the X-warmest year in history,  with El-Nino during 2009-10 winter favoring more Polar clouds,   perfect for making thinner sea ice during darkness,  not so good for the melting sea ice during summer.   2010 was interesting,  because La Nina was full blown on December 2010.  This further  delayed a major melting season till 2012.    2010 had almost a perfect mix,  El-Nino during winter and La-Nina hitting in spring would have made 2010 the greatest melting ever.  However La-Nina lagged by a few months.   Now lets compare ENSO's :

     March 2010, the remnants of El-Nino cast a cloudy shadow over the Arctic.  it was a very warm winter with sunsets in spring seen with rounder sun disks.

   The difference is unmistakable,  March 25 2010 (left) had a much rounder sun disk (wetter by moisture signaled redness) at the same astronomical elevation on the same date of 2015.   The right sun disk is heavily miraged,  it has twice less vertical sun disk but is more like Dr Andy Young's  Mock Mirage,  2 suns with the top one cut off.    Warmer Arctic atmospheres tend to cause less optical refraction.

     March 16 2015 has a warmer North Pacific but colder South Pacific,  similar to 2010,
but 2010 had a modest El-Nino over the winter. However, the trend is and was La-Nina'ish until very recently.    With North Pacific clouds nowhere as strong to seed the stratosphere as much as equatorial Cumulo Nimbus.

We see this seeding in the High Arctic another way:

   Basically the latest La-Nina trend created less cloud seeds (march 27 2015 above), we can hardly see any black cloud streaks (PSC's or Polar Tropopausic Clouds).  During an El-Nino,  a greater number of cloud seeds scatter world wide,  and come down in the High Arctic increasing cloud albedo,  therefore El-Nino cools the Arctic in Spring-Summer or warms the Arctic in late Autumn-Winter,  La-Nina does exactly the opposite.       There has been very good hypothesis of possible massive El-Nino forming as by CSU's Phil Klotzbach relayed by  Dr Masters.

   These higher than Cirrus clouds show up very well during twilight,   the more El-Nino is warm the more we see.   There is here double the streaks on this March 6 2010 shot of the same sky as on the preceding  photo right above.

    Prognosis from this data:

     There are other sources of information that I will publish later,  for now it looks like
there will be a sun driven earlier melt for Arctic Sea ice.  But it will be stopped
by extra clouds come about July.   Not quite ideal for a massive melt.  But other observations are forthcoming,  there is not enough compiled factors which will help decide the crucial circulation patterns to come.   I have a few more weeks of observing to do before making my yearly summer-fall-winter projection.  WD March 28,2015

RRR explained by open sea water and the location of the coldest Atmosphere

~The cold temperature North Pole is oscillating almost always at the same location

Complaints about extreme snowfall over the NE North American coast have nothing to do with Global Cooling. Rather everything to do with a wide area of missing sea ice. Some attribute correctly to these steady days of ground hog day like weather over the entirety of North America to Cristopher C Burt's analysis of RRR. There is a pressure ridge remarkably steady over the West North American coast area. This ridge does not move a lot like the sea ice boundary next to the Greenland Sea having sea water largely made open by recurring repeating Northeasterner Cyclones being part of an hemispheric wide circulation feedback:


Last month or so General circulation summary, repeated cyclones originating from about Florida USA and ending South of the Island of Novoya Zemlya, Russia. What attracts winter Gulf Stream Cyclones is North Atlantic open water, the more open, the longer they last. The longer they endure, the more a chance they can morph together and form an even larger Cyclonic area. A greater melt than usual of sea ice over the North Atlantic, as what happened during the last few years, exacerbated more precipitation over the entire North Atlantic area at times striking one country more than another:


At times, the shear number of cyclones morphed over a wide Arctic area, making Greenland the center of one very big cyclone. This nurtured a zonal coldest atmosphere of the world I call the Cold Temperature North Pole. But the predominant circulation from this structure is colder Central North Russian air flowing all the way to Ontario by way of the Pole. Next to this flow is coldest air thriving in darkness and is supported by the Straospheric Polar Vortex near -80 C center, together they contribute to the atmosphere compressing, becoming thinnest but really cold and dense, where all around the winds are greatest, this gives the polar jet stream as well, the center of which is the CTNP.:


Usually the CTNP migrates, fractures, is bounced around like a top, but this year it remained near North of Hudson Bay and Hudson Strait area. South Baffin Island Canada was very cold this winter, but Alaska very much opposite. The jet stream remained almost fixed in location, this guaranties the RRR to stay literally in place, for as long as the CTNP doesn't move, so does the jet stream. In green the jet stream largely placed by the thinner atmosphere either by extreme cold air or by strong very low in pressure cyclones. Cyclones in Red dominate the North Atlantic and Pacific. Whether they head North or not influences the Northern Hemisphere weather world wide.


The location of the CTNP literally dictates weather and impacts climate in the long run, especially if it is steady in location . This winters imprint is already set, a large area of sea ice, roughly centered 90 degrees East and West longitudes should have thicker sea ice. This gives a familiar look reminiscent of 2007 minima ice bridge. The continuous circulation from Central Russia to Ontario also means much drier, less snow covering the ground or sea surface, this implies a very early melt where ice is thinnest. Atlantic Cyclones repeatedly ending near Novaya Zemlya kept more open water over the North Atlantic and Greenland sea, the lately created sea ice there will be much thinner and this affects the melting season outlook. Its the combination of the colder Arctic Archipelago, the thicker 90 degrees longitude sea ice and perennially cold in darkness Greenland which locate the CTNP North Hudson Bay. As Atlantic Cyclones continue foraging Northeastwards, there is no reason to believe that the jet stream and RRR will change in position soon. If there was more sea ice over the North Atlantic, the weather would have been dramatically different. But the steady nature of current circulation pattern has everything to do with the warming of the planet and more melted sea ice.. WD February 17-18,2015

LOW energy darkness.

~Vanishing twilight days data still very compelling.

    February 12, 2015,  there are high energy Lows basically cut off by High pressure system covering a wider area of the High Arctic.  The nearest High energy systems were 976 and 991 mb in strength,  they are not expansive and isolated.  The sunlight ray path 

on feb 12 went through  a  much smaller Upper Air  dT/dZ rate (difference in temperature/altitude depth) than some preceding events. 

  

   Dec 25 santa storm brightness versus February 12 low dT/dZ sunray transect.  

The higher energy event on Dec 25 was literally more visible.  

   With -13.1 degree sun way below horizon,  the last High Arctic observation days of ideal High Energy Events  were basically free of haze particulates,  because during the long night,  there was next to no photochemistry at all.  December 25 2014 is a class 10 extra bright event which was so strong it likely affected the sea Ice extent numbers later:

    Watch closely the biggest drop in recent sea ice extent was preceded by the "santa storm" a literal heat laden from the South Atlantic cyclone which headed almost strait to the North Pole ,  eventually  it merged with other Gulf Stream cyclones and covered a huge extent of the circumpolar world,  forming a true sub vortex.   

Fast forward to today (feb 12, 2015):

   The energy systems are nowhere as intense,   where did the brightness at -12.9 degrees below the horizon gone?    Although there was one recent event rivaling December 25,  it dissipated on the North American West Coast.  But the twilight observation  days are drawing to a close. The Arctic atmosphere is loaded with photochemically sensitive aerosols,  Arctic haze will be setting in,  however the haze dissipates during darkness , so the low just returning orange sun is not sufficient to affect twilight,  not yet,  but soon there will be no weak twilight to observe.  WDFeb12,2015

North Pacific in Origin Low not as bright than from the South Atlantic.

   January 22 2015,   photo with  moon,  had clear air very similar to Dec 25, 2014.   December 25 sun elevation was -13.12 degrees,  while January -13.09 degrees,  but had twilight brightness well below December 25 2014 Santa storm shine despite somewhat similar mega scale weather.

            ECMWF map describes a pressure ridge from the Arctic Ocean and a minor Low pressure system over the Northwest Territories at pressures 30 mb higher than Santa Cyclone once over Central Quebec.    It was cold over Cornwallis Island -38 C,  while Yellowknife -19 C  very Balmy 7 degrees above normal.  The Ray Path  towards under the horizon the sun had key ingredients for a bright light energy event:

Ray path in black, meant twilight had near ideal temperature contrasts to generate more light for those living in darkness 24 hours a day.    But this low had lesser energy stored in it than during Santa storm.   The proof was in the twilight.   This latest observation continues  proving even more the great capacity in judging how strong a cyclone might be when juxtaposed to a dark zone.  With better equipment the same thing can be done with hurricanes or any high energy storm system.   WD Jan 22, 2015

Confirmation, Higher energy weather systems are brighter

~Similar weather patterns gave darker twilights
~Difference in temperatures between Low and High pressure systems is what matters


   Simplified explanation:

   A high energy weather event exists when it has more heat or overall greater kinetic (molecular motion) energy than adjoining Pressure systems.     On a modest scale, hurricanes or typhoons are high energy systems,  on a macro or very large scale Cyclones contain large quantities of heat usually characterized by moisture content or much warmer temperatures along with wind motion.  A warm cyclone having gathered heat over a warmer Ocean source, can create more light channels especially if it heads towards Northern usually always colder High Pressure systems.   These channels are  similar in nature to fiber optic cables which carry light by refraction.    A cold system immediately next to a warmer one naturally creates channels at the interface between colder and warmer air.  The sunlight present
at many such  interfaces can get diverted like a laser light through fiber optic line,  and travel beyond  the earth's terminator, the edge between light and darkness separating night and day as seen from space.  In the High Arctic at present it is dark,  but a twilight exists at noon.  This twilight changes in intensity due to the position of the sun below the horizon,  the extent and type of clouds, pollution or natural aerosols, and finally how much refraction there is in the lower and mid lower atmosphere where normally the Arctic Air is warmest in darkness.


Confirmation of Pressure system driven light variations due to atmospheric refraction.

~please read the Christmas article just below,  this is a follow up.

   December 25 2014  (left),  was visually brighter than January 9 2015 (right).  The sun elevation was -12.07 and -12.12 degrees.   On camera ,  the visual perception was confirmed.  With exact camera settings and location in both instances.

    A bit later, December 25,2014 (left) and January 9,2015 (right) appear similar,  but there are large differences.   First the hills appear higher on Dec 25,  this may be an illusion due to brightness.   Second ,  despite January 9 more sparse lower clouds,  there appears far less redness, a feature of the raised horizon, purely a refraction and scattering phenomenon.  If there were more aerosols on either photo,  the red would have appeared hazed, or more uniform ,  but instead it was layered in refraction dispersion colors.
January 9 lack of redness was likely due to lateness of twilight.   When only white
light appears.    Finally Dec 25 sun elevation was 0.3 degrees lower than on January 9.
Remarkable demonstration on to how bright Christmas day twilight was, especially since
January 9 had very clear air,  especially cleansed by a 2 day blizzard,  and the temperature  was colder over he same wide area light has travelled.  Colder air gives stronger refraction without ducts.


Weather Prognosis


    Since before December 25,  several Atlantic North-easterner Cyclones have merged into a greater huge sub Polar vortex roughly centered over Greenland,  affecting weather over a vast areas spanning from Arctic Eurasia, Scandinavia all the way to mid-west USA.    Since Christmas,   the temperatures dropped significantly over most of North America,  with temperatures higher in he High Arctic.  Clearly a reversal in contrast has occurred,  instead of a wide deep in dT  macro interface  as on Christmas,  dT were largely diminished.  Pressure systems were equally not entirely similar, December 25 had a large intrusion of warm air spanning westwards past Hudson Bay. January 9 light path Cyclone was not so significant East of Hudson Bay.

     A very similar prognosis to Dec 25,2014, misleading because temperature Upper Profiles were very different.    The  Polar Vortex had 4 components,  in 2 small anticyclones amidst 2 larger cyclones.  The biggest Low centered over Greenland basically a sub-vortex covering half the North circumpolar world.

December 25,  90 W degree longitude line (the only vertical one) demonstrates  large difference in Upper Air temperatures,  up to 30 C dT between 600 mb (left) and 1000 mb (right).   This is what gives more light.   As opposed:

January 9, 90W transect had a much milder dT but still quite significant.  Therefore less light but still a lot.  THe difference in twilight brightness proves yet another very useful
refraction method,  this time in judging the magnitude of Cyclonic systems.
The December 25 event,  not giving destruction as dramatic as a hurricane was very important not only in revealing twilight brightness effects, but also in affecting the weather over a vast segment of the circumpolar world for weeks to come.  WDJan9-13
2015

Christmas brightest twilight signals great thermal event 2000 miles away

 

  Southern Cornwallis Island Nunavut Canada  had several days,  almost a week without clouds,  adjusted my eyesight well,  but what I saw verged on the impossible, or the possible but never noticed.   The picture with layered segments above are of the same twilight,  except the first one (top),  was taken earlier on December 22 2014, more to the East towards the sun position,  the two others below were taken in the same direction towards the sun azimuth location later in the afternoon of December 24  (middle) and 25 respectively.   As weak as twilight appears here,  it was in fact brighter to the naked eye.  But the same camera was used in order to demonstrate and record this refraction event.      The first segment was taken when he sun was -10.20 degrees below the horizon.  It seemed normal or close to the average twilight look at -10 degrees.  What caught my eye was the second segment,  at -12.13 degrees the horizon twilight was brighter than at -10,  a fantastic re-discovery (the Y-V Ulluq Q),  but this time captured with identical digital camera settings in every way.  It is hard to accept that a much lower under the horizon sun can produce more twilight in clear skies.  But horizon refraction often does so, but in this case can be considered a wow moment.  The physics involved  require a deeper understanding of how much heat this cyclone carried.  Heat  and cold are a major component of Atmospheric refraction.  However, for North Eastern Americans and Canadians it was more heath than usual.

     Further to the South an important cyclone has moved from the South Eastern US December 23  all the way to Central Quebec on the 25th of December.   Some called it "Santa  Bomb".  As this cyclone approached the Arctic the twilight brightened.  In fact brightest on the 25th.

    The second camera used replicated vision much better,  this was the 24th,  the cyclone approached polewards and injected a lot of heat,  this heat overlay over Arctic colder but seasonal air and caused an inversion interface at likely 2 altitudes,  one on the ground,  and the other at the maximum temperature in the upper atmosphere. On the 25th the horizon with sun at same altitude was remarkably brightest,  a Christmas like none other for long night people.

      Several magnitudes of twilight brightness increased in a mere few days,  the location of the major Cyclone varied from more than 2000 miles away and 1500 miles South South East when December 25 picture was taken.     One must consider the staggering amount of energy needed to create such an event,  and especially the extent of reach
one pressure system so far away may have.   I believe that this storm had more to it than calculated.


    Proof is in the position of the Christmas storm, temperatures in the Arctic did not vary
greatly, under a steady high pressure ridge.    The only variant was the Low American  North Eastener heading off its usual Ireland and UK track towards the Pole.

       Camera 2 sequence,   on day 24 the Low was further away NE USA,  day 25 maximum illumination due to closer proximity of Santa storm still warm (central Quebec).  Day 26 fading,  the storm lost a great deal of energy  on its way to Hudson Strait and thus the interface dT's, temperature differences were lesser,  from here on Arctic twilights will vary less bright until the next warm massive cyclone Polewards.  

Just How much more energy did the "Santa Storm" carry?


    Extra Light carried through  was not only due to its size,   but because of contrasting
weather powers,  the anticyclones  vs the santa-cyclone,  if the cyclone was  run of the mill standard and without much exception,  then it would have headed to Ireland and  UK  like the previous dozen or so.   Instead it headed more North,  clustered by Highs to the East West and even North of it :

 ECMWF Dec 25 2014 at 12z.        Extent wise this low seems modest.  Yet
there was a great deal more light high up in the Arctic.   The even more modest
High pressure ridge near Cornwallis offered no apparent clash to the titan much further South.

  The one week forecast made the Low merge with pre-existing left overs from previous North Atlantic incursions:

The "modest" santa low as forecasted really became  a North Atlantic Monster swallowing Greenland.   The forecast serves as a measure of energy,  if the santa low
was correctly evaluated the forecast would reflect this measure of accuracy.

          By the looks of it ,   the forecast was pretty impressive,  but there was more energy in the same date time surface analysis,  suggesting an under evaluation of the
total amount of energy a week prior.  

 WD December 25-26, 29 , 2014