Slow cloud induced last month melting surprise

 ~ The speediest melt rate since 2012 and 16 slowed by weather dynamics is not quite finished surprising yet

~The current latest melting appears innocuous but is huge

August 13-17 North Spitzbergen   50 Km Resolution:

   Impressive Northwards massive melting despite wind flowing towards the South (roughly towards the right).

   Goodbye Waves Russian side morphing rapidly on Center Russian side of the Pole.  Somewhere about 10 km square melting.

WD August 17 2020

Megamelt in progress despite normalized circulation

~All experiences just gathered has helped depict the near future sea ice of the Canadian Alaskan sector of the North Pole; it is melting extremely fast,  most of it will vanish.

~The current weather circulation pattern is what one would expect for this time of summer

~Nearly 3 weeks long anomalous High pressure centred on Pacific side of the Pole induced ice flow has stalled and or reverting in the opposite direction,  giving the illusion summer 2020 melt has stalled,  but it is simply changing course. 

NASA EOSDIS North of Alaska and Beaufort sea ice has dramatically changed state from  somewhat steady consolidated pack to extremely unstable about to melt all pattern,  in a matter of 7 days.  It means the ice was very thin but strong enough to keep up appearing normal on the 24th of July.   Preceding experiences of today's event, as you can read previous recent EH2r articles,  basically foretell a massive area,  the Arctic Basin Gyre zone liquid sea surface is about to resurface again from the veil of its ageless ancient perineal cover. WD July 31 2020

North Atlantic hyper melting ; when sea ice is a pack it can easily go into warm waters

~North Atlantic slush front

~Day fast changing Goodbye Waves

   EOSDIS July 23-24 2020 North Atlantic by Franz Josef Islands,  total chaos reigns,  as the loosened  ice pack heads towards warmed surface waters,  massive melting ensues.    Note the rapid disappearance of goodbye wave geometry in 24 hours,  in particular the ice about vertical striations middle of July 23 capture,  the G.W. morph in shape very rapidly,  an indication of hyper speed melting.  WD July 24 2020

Laptev sea: Extreme melting in the middle of a pack

~Again a rare sight,  contrary to usual water engulfment,  sea ice melts in the middle of a pack
~This loop offers an explanation of the warm High over the Arctic Ocean,  sea ice on the Russian side of the Pole is much thinned. 

   Laptev sea ice melt speeds continue to impress, at right we have astounding example,  usually sea ice melts when the ice pack is scattered, and pans of ice are prey to surrounding warm surface water.  Not in this case, sea ice is melting from within the pack.  The loop sequence below captured the jutting ice pack at centre (right);

   This middle of Pack melting is unusual, but strongly suggests very thin sea ice.  NASA EOSDIS July 15-19 2020.  Now this helps explain the stubbornly persistent High pressure over the Arctic Ocean.  Usually at what I call "Arctic switchover"   a winter/summer switching of roles occurs between anticyclones and lows,  whereas cyclones tend to gravitate where its coldest,  as opposed to Highs which tend to place themselves at the warmest spots,  top of Greenland excluded due to obvious reasons.  Switchover 2020 occurred in good time at about mid June,  but at end of June appeared this anticyclone where a cyclone should be.  One explanation was very hot advection from Siberia, the other reason is that the sea ice from Pole to Russia is exceptionally thinner.  This would allow a High to settle over sea ice, having a surface  always colder than land, but thinner sea ice has another player,  thermal radiation from the underlying sea may very well be the key in allowing this High to exist, an Arctic High pressure system may be stable if literally underlying heat input is similar to land.  WD July 19, 2020

Laptev Sea melt madness, Goodbye Waves have no time to be artistic

~ Most dramatic record pace melting on Russian side of Pole

~Visual record shows particular "Goodbye Waves"

NASA EOSDIS July 12 to 17,  Laptev sea ice retreats at stunning speeds,  mostly by melting, as exemplified by Goodbye Waves,  not having a chance to twirl and be creatively beautiful.    Never noticed this before on such a wide scale.

East Siberian sea during the same time period,  thawing is just as frenetic,  the G. Waves  are likely from much thicker sea ice pans,  so the twisting around or final act of sea ice can be seen.   We can indirectly surmise what kind of ice it was by the last moments of its existence or life,  a pan of sea ice includes a world of beings all dependent of it.  WD July 17, 2020

North Pole compression & pond lakes, Atlantic Front open water intrusion

~The current record pace sea ice melting has a significant wind component. 

NASA Eosdis recent July 13-16 North Pole look was granted by lesser cloud cover.  What was observed is sea ice moving towards North of Alaska,  along with huge top of sea ice lake ponds.

Compressed sea ice by the persistent wind driven flow.  Any change of winds would trigger decompression, wide open features are just about to start.

Just Northeast of Spitzbergen Island, North Atlantic front action continues unabated, at remarkable speeds (July 7 to 16).   With a mixture of sea ice movement and rapid melting exemplified by "Goodbye Waves" remnants of about to completely vanish pack ice swiftly thawed by very warm sea surface temperatures.  Again a different wind venue would trigger even more melting because of the just created and warming sea water.   WD July 16 , 2020

Atlantic front; very rapid melting

~A look at some record pace melting. 

   EOSDIS July 11-12   2020 Just North of Spitzbergen,  look and place mouse pointer on the "Goodbye Wave Peninsula"  lower centre right of animation,  the basic nature of Goodbye Waves stages of melting demonstrate huge pans of sea ice, 1 km wide vanishing in a day.  The winds on July 12 were light in the photo sector.  The sea current is somewhat rapid,  approximately 1 km and hour towards the NW.  A weak cloud cover is also key in more rapid thawing at this time of summer.   The same speedy liquifying can't be repeated,  slowed and  hampered by denser pack ice (colder sea surface ) and denser clouds near Franz Jozef Islands.  WD July 12, 2020

April 20 sea ice projection

~Written about,  sketch omitted then
~Appears to be coming through

Arctic sea ice calamity, Arctic Ocean warm High

~If memory serves, not observed this consistent since 2007
~The only reason possible is warmer sea temperatures and thinner sea ice

CMC July 7 SST,  Artificial Intelligence doesn't like lake Baikal and East Siberian sea temperature readings.  But likely accurate. Warm sea surface temperatures
may contribute to a stable High on the Pacific side of the North Pole quadrant,  this I did see coming but only for a short time,  not as long as a week or 2.  It is a disaster for sea ice:

Given that the Atlantic front has collapsed, the flow of mainly pack sea ice will be dumped at a monstrous rate,  especially with the North Atlantic Low ideally located.    The CMC July 8 surface map also depicts something not common,
it is a cold surface High over sea ice,  but very warm High aloft.  It means an upper air heat source.  The origins of this more than one week old anticyclone are equally interesting..... 

.......    It simply appeared (U. of Wyoming),  on June 30 past.  Likely formed in part by the flow of North Russian Urals hot air pumped by a similar if not the same Low pressure vicinity Novaya Zemlya.

This warm aloft High seems quite stable.   A disaster for sea ice is in the making....  WD July 8 2020

Massive off Axel Heiberg and Ellesmere "Big Lead" event just occurred

~Unusual since it is not moon related
~A sudden apparently surface wind easily broke up a once consolidated multi-year sea ice with ease

 

The thickest strongest Sea ice is getting pulverized quickly,  mainly by consistent North of Greenland high pressure giving clockwise winds,  with other factors such as tides.   Reminiscent of 2016 action,  or March 1989,  but the latter was related to massive synergistic tidal forcing under very frozen sea icescape.  2020 June 26, 27 and 28 action was unequally caused by melted snow accelerating true ice surface melting.  This event appears highly regionalized,  suggesting a rather poor consolidated state of sea ice everywhere else.  WD June 28, 2020