~Geophysics can be filled with symmetrical effects, some having same or wildly differing causes
~Arctic Goodbye waves, seen here: http://eh2r.blogspot.com/2016/09/wrangel-bridge-waves-away-goodbye.html , are a terribly photogenic, even artistic expressions from sea ice melting away.
~But Jupiter is no Earth. Or is there solids on top of its dense gaseous atmosphere?
Thanks "New Horizons" view here. Something on Jupiter looks familiar? EH2r has dealt with this before:
Although Jupiter is much more colourful, the look is pretty much the same. Here we can offer what is happening on top of Jupiter's dense (almost liquid?) atmosphere. "Goodbye Waves" were once majestic sea ice just about vanished by melting, leaving a trail of salts, biomass and fresh water not readily mixing with Arctic sea water, but carried by sea currents giving the stylish twists and turns only found where there is an interface exposing the physics of two differing layers not readily intermixing. 2020 sea ice melt season will be great and perhaps will offer other planetary looks, spectacular but too much of it is pretty bad from always pretty planet Earth. WD June 15 2020
Monday, June 15, 2020
Friday, June 5, 2020
Assessing the impossible by other means; 2020 has a faster snow melting pace.
~A careful look at Northern Greenland and Ellesmere reveals the early melting pace
~2019-2020 was a winter with lots of snow
~Most of it gone where it should have been remaining, that is if you look at surface temperatures and sea ice extent numbers.
~The mystery white mask of 2020 season is melting/sublimating away
The first thing we remember about 2012 sea ice melt season, was the cyclone over the Arctic Ocean on August 5. But 2012 was also a year with a more normal snow cover as opposed to 2020.
The thing about Arctic snow over ice and land is that it is spread out quite evenly by the winds which may span in the same direction for hundreds of Kilometres. 2020 spread out was more important, by about a factor of 2 compared to 2012. So you might think, 2012, the year with greatest sea ice melt on record should show more land than any other known year at an early melt season date, say June 3:
The 2012 2020 comparison leaves no doubt about current faster snow melting, despite a cloudier 2020 late Spring. WD June 5 2020
~2019-2020 was a winter with lots of snow
~Most of it gone where it should have been remaining, that is if you look at surface temperatures and sea ice extent numbers.
~The mystery white mask of 2020 season is melting/sublimating away
The first thing we remember about 2012 sea ice melt season, was the cyclone over the Arctic Ocean on August 5. But 2012 was also a year with a more normal snow cover as opposed to 2020.
The thing about Arctic snow over ice and land is that it is spread out quite evenly by the winds which may span in the same direction for hundreds of Kilometres. 2020 spread out was more important, by about a factor of 2 compared to 2012. So you might think, 2012, the year with greatest sea ice melt on record should show more land than any other known year at an early melt season date, say June 3:
NASA EOSDIS June 3 animation for years 2012 to 2020. We see mainly Ellesmere Island and a bit of Northeast Greenland, the perineal coldest area of the Northern Hemisphere, doesn't quite matter which month you may chose. Turns out 2012, the year with less winter/spring snow precipitation, has more snow than 2020 on same June 3. This is a very significant finding. Less snow on ground means less fog or low clouds as well, 2012 shows that, unlike cloudier 2020 still in progress of melting a once thicker snow carpet. All the other June 3's from 2013 to 2019, had over all significantly more snow coverage.
Tuesday, May 12, 2020
History of a recent Rogue vortice from a positioning to North Pole Polar Vortex
~Extraordinary latest geography of the shrinking Polar Vortex
~A North Polar centric Polar Vortex has one deleterious effect: extra sunshine for vulnerable sea ice.
~Skinny elongated P.V. are very vulnerable to become a Rogue vortice at extreme Southern limits.
Keep in mind of extreme South light purple limits of the following: (it mainly implies the position of the Polar jet stream)
With 3 rogue vortices at once from a shrinking Polar Vortex, the biggest strongest one formed over Hudson Bay on May 5, becoming smaller the P.V. has no strong cold core capable of repulsing significant cyclones moving Northwards. These cyclones warm the Vortex on its Eastern elongated sides and pushes broken segments of it away from the cold center core. Once isolated, cold vortices warm quickly, rapidly reducing their lifespans. Although the Hudson Bay Rogue vortice may not have seemed to have warmed quickly enough on the ground, having created some chilling snow flakes in extreme Eastern Southern Canada. However the elongated nature of a vanishing Polar Vortex can create such freak weather events.
What you just witnessed is the positioning of the core cold P.V. center towards the North Pole. What does this mean? In all practical terms a North Pole centric summer P.V. implies more sunshine hitting the thickest Northern Hemisphere sea ice in existence:
CMC May 12, 2020 1800 UTC surface analysis. Note the Cold Temperature North Pole does not hover over a Cyclone or Anticyclone, it usually is found in between these massive atmospheric pressure features, the sun shines more in these huge area , smack over thickest sea ice. This is not good for its survival. Especially since the P.V. cold core is not about to move somewhere else fast:
Same area 6 hours later 500 mb level CMC analysis. The pressure systems are very much vertically aligned with the jet stream around the light purple extreme Southern perimeter of the NOAA animation above. A stable configuration settling the Cold Temperature North Pole over the North Pole. WD May 12, 2020
Friday, April 24, 2020
2020 Annual spring projection, in more details.
~We must remember December 2019 boxing day all time in recorded history low temperature at center of Polar Vortex.
~As a matter of prognosis, the recent overwhelming stable wider area of warming in 24 hour darkness had a side effect, a smaller area of stable cooling.
~The center of Polar Vortex: the Cold Temperature North Pole will be at the N.P.
~Sun disk observations have shown remarkable early spring warming Northwestwards from center of Canadian Arctic Archipelago, why is this strange and unusual?
~2020 Vertical sun disk slight expansion numbers changes past 2 years all time low compressions numbering nil.
~ENSO variations closely resembles vertical sun disk expansion data
Et tu ENSO?
2020 Summer La Nina or El-Nino? Is the big question. The usual excellent NOAA updates and analysis suggest a neutral summer again. There has been very peculiar no La-Nina rebound since very warm 2016 El-Nino. What we know is that a La-Nina favors dryer air colder winter, as opposed to El-Nino creating more clouds (the cloud seeding theory) giving a cooler summer but warmer winter. However, the evidence on ENSO variations from afar can be observed. In the Arctic (and elsewhere) El-Ninos give much higher sliver clouds making spectacular twilights. Again, I observed both types this late winter, none or few black or white wafer thin high altitude clouds, varying from week to week. This indeed suggests a Neutral ENSO is coming. But there is another way to indirectly observe ENSO trends:
Tuesday, April 21, 2020
Annual spring-summer-autumn Northern Hemisphere weather projections , by the usual unorthodox methods .... A preview
~8 years since sea ice survived a 2012 summer calamity melt, the tipping point may be a cleaner atmosphere.
~Sun disk measurement anomalies varied according to economic slowdowns
~But right before , there was further change in circulation, causing a different snow scape
~The extra sublimation caused by "wet” snow layer insulated the ground and sea ice away from the cooling it caused.
~There is a large question looming whether this noticeable tropospheric cooling helped the stratospheric “ozone hole” just past.
~The master of world wide circulation, the tropospheric Polar Vortex, has moved Northwards
~Sea ice teetering already at record thin thickness, will collapse on the Atlantic front.
~ENSO high cloud symptoms gave varying signals for the 3rd year in a row, again no plunging towards deep La-Nina is foreseen.
~ENSO high cloud symptoms gave varying signals for the 3rd year in a row, again no plunging towards deep La-Nina is foreseen.
Here is the preview , prognostics and projections will follow on the next article shortly:
ALFHA sketch , it has been discovered that "wet snow" mainly fallen October 2019 , remained in a wide area causing extra insulation, which in turn gave a second thermal surface, unique, likely by keeping the ground or sea ice warmer, but giving more sublimation, causing by its very properties, more air cooling. And so was noted a particularly cooler Arctic winter than recent years past. The location of this different type of snowfall was given here, largely estimated by the tracks of cyclones, some which gave "southern" in nature snow leaving a track from South of Baffin to the Pole. This wet snow area will play a large role in breaking down the usual "Atlantic front" ice barrier, it is very well known thick snow insulation gives thinner sea ice and necessarily more early ice leads.Figure BETA, April 20 onwards, the Cold Temperature North Pole shifted Northwards compared to previous seasons, as determined by sun disk measurements and other means. This caused a greater warming of North America since March, and more rain for Western Europe. The jet stream in green is at higher latitudes.
GAMMA map, early switchover is expected well formed about May 15, late spring cyclone anticyclone positioning start their role reversal, the CTNP will be largely unique. Early warming of the continents is expected, in part due to lesser pollution world wide, but the dominant reason is the high latitude of the Polar Vortex.
DELTA chart, June July, Siberian Highs will be drawn to the Yukon, the CTNP center of the Vortex will hug the Pole, therefore more clear weather there, bad for sea ice, however around especially multiyear ice along the Canadian archipelago coast, cloudier cyclone driven weather, global circulation slower movement for North Atlantic and Pacific cyclones, reducing moisture
with super warming of the continents, the North Pacific SST warming is not too strong by slower drifting Lows, because at July end, the Vortex should not be strong at all.
EPSILON August September projection, likewise with the warming from less pollution be, the reverse happens fostering cooling with the lower in altitude sun. A High at the Pole should be prominent by September, typhoon remnants with North Pacific Cyclones should start their South to North journeys which will last the fall to winter. A great stall in weather should be in dominance much to the South. Namely for a great chunk of the West Coast of the US. To the East Hurricanes will appear rudderless, at the mercy of Atlantic anticyclones. The jet stream will show some faint life signs at the Pole as well.
ZETA GRAPH. The stratospheric ozone hole of 2020 reinforced the said surface cooling over the Arctic Ocean of March 2020, or is it vice versa? Nevertheless, the tropopause was hard to distinguish during much of March above Cornwallis Island Nunavut Canada, Upper air profiles in the troposphere had often much stronger than usual adiabatic profiles, while the average said profiles between 2008 and 19 were much more stable and warmer. In here lies the contradiction, what fueled the more unstable adiabats in 2020? I suggest it was largely thinner sea ice, prevalent everywhere throughout the Arctic, as presented on my previous article, 925 mb level Arctic temperatures were warmest ever..... Temperatures of the 1 to 3 kilometer greater in height tropopause of 2020 was often -80 C, an ideal temperature for atmospheric ozone depletions. This greater height of tropopause is reminiscent of 2011, which had many destructive tornadoes. The dissipation of the stratospheric polar vortex very strong center will not relinquish its winds overnight. Therefore the strong possibility of 2011'sh tornadoes, but likely further Northwards than usual. WD April 21, 24 2020
Friday, March 13, 2020
2020 Lower Polar Vortex shrank by 8.5 million square kilometers compared to 2012 , 2020 has smallest area every year since
~The lower in altitude Polar Vortex area right above surface of Earth is warming fast
~ Even compared to 2016, El-Nino driven warmest year in history
~It is unquestionably clear, warming at the core of the vortex is from over all thinner sea ice
From Jim Hunt's website :
~ Even compared to 2016, El-Nino driven warmest year in history
~It is unquestionably clear, warming at the core of the vortex is from over all thinner sea ice
From Jim Hunt's website :
There is not much doubt about how thinner Arctic Sea ice has become. It may be even less than estimated:
NOAA daily composites January 1 to March 19 2020, 925 mb temperature average. 2020 is clearly the smallest vortex area by millions of square kilometers. From this overview, there is not much guessing as to why this current winter is amongst the warmest in history. Again note, the smaller the vortex the colder its Cold Temperature North Poles can be. This is a distinct feature of our current climate. What is particularly interesting is the 2012 Canadian Arctic Archipelago crescent CTNP zone being nearly identical to 2020, a precursor to 2012 atmospheric pattern leading to all time lowest sea ice extent at end of summer. WD March 13, 2020
Friday, February 21, 2020
Winter 2020 breaks 8 Omicron circulation cycle
~Major circulation pattern forces in a distinct climate result for spring summer 2020
~Similar in nature to spring summer 2019 weather
~Implying lots of rain, as if it will be a surprise for Midwest North America and NW Europe
~8 Omicron pattern was noticed especially after 2012
~2020 breaks the cycle namely for Alaska-CCA-Midwest N.A. and NW Europe 2019 weather
Introducing the 8 Omicron Arctic Polar Vortex pattern, pay attention to 2012-13, 2014-15, 2016-17, 2018-19 morphology or the shape of the Vortex perimeter:
Meantime, your wet soggy weather can be largely attributed to Omicron pattern whipping ocean air straight onto the Western continental coasts, as opposed to 8 shapes seasons diverting the Eastern oceans moistures and warmth Northwards. Early prognosis for 2020: hope you the enjoy more rain if you are East and West coasters, the Ying and Yang of moisture, mainly a consistent Pacific flow joining the Atlantic Gulf stream making dry spots only within central continents .... WD February 21, 2020
Tuesday, February 11, 2020
Now that is strange, really different Arctic circulation patterns countinue
~Winter 2019-20 High Arctic circulation sharply deviates from preceding 8 years
~It means the sea icescape, despite extent gains, is really different
February 11, 2020 NOAA animation loop courtesy CMC. Yes a Cyclone from the Atlantic is heading to the Pacific straight from East to West. Because the CTNP, the North American Cold Temperature North Pole vortice is well South of the Canadian Arctic Archipelago. Is quite warm over Ellesmere Island at present compared to further South. Even though Ellesmere is still plunged in 24 hour darkness. All in all, 19-20 winter is no recent year pattern repeat. This feature announces more strangeness to come. WD Feb 11,2020
~It means the sea icescape, despite extent gains, is really different
February 11, 2020 NOAA animation loop courtesy CMC. Yes a Cyclone from the Atlantic is heading to the Pacific straight from East to West. Because the CTNP, the North American Cold Temperature North Pole vortice is well South of the Canadian Arctic Archipelago. Is quite warm over Ellesmere Island at present compared to further South. Even though Ellesmere is still plunged in 24 hour darkness. All in all, 19-20 winter is no recent year pattern repeat. This feature announces more strangeness to come. WD Feb 11,2020
Saturday, February 1, 2020
Spectacular Surface Cyclone with no clouds was really a CTNP vortice
~ Arctic Winter 2019-2020 has a smaller Polar Vortex with many Polar vortices, with centers West of CAA, NE Siberia and even Alaska
~The Western Canadian Arctic Archipelago Cold Temperature North Pole vortice was quite spectacular:
Friday, January 3, 2020
Coldest New Years Eve Cold Temperature North Pole in Meteorological history, since 1948
~Resulting from stable weather exacerbated and surrounded by a much warmer atmosphere
~First observed in spring 2017 by refraction sun disk method
~A surrounded shrunken by greater heat Polar Vortex gives deeply cold vortices.
December 31 2019, with Polar Vortex off center weighted temperature measuring -48 C CTNP over Ellesmere Island, the coldest such air ever measured for this date, surpassing all others by 4 degrees C (1948-2018).
~First observed in spring 2017 by refraction sun disk method
~A surrounded shrunken by greater heat Polar Vortex gives deeply cold vortices.
December 31 2019, with Polar Vortex off center weighted temperature measuring -48 C CTNP over Ellesmere Island, the coldest such air ever measured for this date, surpassing all others by 4 degrees C (1948-2018).
In Purple, deeply frozen weighted atmosphere using 600 mb, the rough altitude giving the average temperature of the entire troposphere. Note the near proximity to much warmer air, by +23 C, within a mere few hundred kilometers, a feature of this phenomena. In the past, same date CTNP's were more Polar Vortex centric. This amazing phenomena coexists with a much warmer Northern Hemisphere atmosphere. With Jet Stream in some sectors way Northwards, at some locations brought Southwards by lower pressure found in huge cyclones. Without Low pressure systems, the outline of 600 mb at -25 C would be roughly the Northern end of the Jet Stream. This small but impressive -48 C CTNP vortice is about 20 C colder than normal for this time of the year, compared to all other years since NOAA daily composite allows, 1948, this region is the coldest New Years Eve in recorded history.
The best way to explain this is to balance the presence of much warmer air, being onto itself more stable, especially during anthropogenic enhanced global warming days, with a significantly smaller region of much colder air. A weather stable region in darkness or with very low sun, is bound to get very cold, because it is isolated, does not have a lot of heat input. This Ellesmere Island CTNP is a continuance of the same one which was further to the West 3 or 4 days ago, a cold vortice tends to place itself wherever ideal radiative cooling exists with very little heat advection or convection (from snow laced lands rather than thinner sea ice). WD January 3, 2020
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