Big Lead story..... It is not there...... Instead we see a great deal of fracturing as expected from a much warmer October Arctic Ocean.

   October 27 2016 NOAA IR HRPT Northern Ellesmere Island Canada.  Finally a clearing after more than a month of clouds.  The densest sea ice of the Arctic world appeared de-compacted,  disassembled by a massive dispersion event,  looked more like new ice just freezing interlaced with thousands of leads.    Speaking of which,  the Big Lead footprint is glaringly absent,  it may last for weeks after it opens, but not much of a sign of it here.  This is clear evidence of laterally decompressed sea ice.  The big lead is a construct of very dense sea ice, it occurs during the coldest days of winter as well as summer,  what is needed for it to show is a strong Tidal event.  Usually during the full or new moon periods.  This picture was taken during a near new moon phase.  Of interest is also Kennedy Channel,  clogged with broken up sea ice flowing with the Tidal driven current.

    NOAA HRPT IR  with different darkness setting than above,  November 13 2012.  2012 densest sea ice then was much more consolidated,  fracturing a whole lot less,  there was some CAA open water shoreline open water that froze (bottom left),  but the big lead(s) was prominent,  a sure sign of stronger compaction .  Kennedy Channel was much more open,  again a sign of a stronger consolidated pack.

         What we have just observed  was the result of a complex chain of events which essentially rendered early winter densest pack ice much weaker, laced thousands of leads giving away heat enough to foster lingering Cyclones to keep the Arctic Ocean mostly covered with clouds.  A few days ago, the coldest air was from the center of Canadian Arctic Archipelago,  and lesser over Northeast Russia merged. Just before, EX Hurricane Nicole pushed a segment of the North Atlantic jet stream deep towards the North Pole,  to the South of the stream was an Anticyclone which helped consolidate Higher pressure over Center of Arctic Ocean making join the 2 coldest air zones from the continents.

        We now see how bad the densest sea ice is,  in effect a broken up shadow of its former self,  a collage of thousands of pieces just freezing together at this time.  Sea ice dynamics are now drastically different.  Expect the unexpected from this time onwards.  WD October 28, 2016.

Remnants of a Hurricane Nicole facilitated Anticyclone under its Northward Planetary wave alteration

   Following up on previous article about PTS Nicole pushing the Jet Stream Northwards,   SFU animation  jet continued flowing Northwards all the way to the  North Pole,  quite extraordinary event.  It seems a Hurricane system more complex than just a mere strong Cyclone.   Because to the South of the displaced Jet Stream Wave there was a High Pressure system:

The Jet stream wave had Higher pressure to its South,  while there was remarkable dominating
Lower pressure over the Arctic Ocean,  the Cyclone dominated Arctic had a significant circulation makeover,  NOAA Daily composites October 21-24 2016.

Ex Hurricane Nicole appears to have displaced the jet stream Northwards

~Is not the first time an Ex-hurricane affected the jet stream...

   Now that formerly Hurricane-Tropical Storm Nicole approached Greenland,  something caught my eye:

SFSU jet stream animation October 14-18, 2016,   usually marking  Low pressures to the North of the main jet stream.   However hurricane Nicole exhibited some unique features which are interesting.  

Zoomed  SFSU animation Oct 14-18,  As Post Tropical Storm Nicole approached South East Greenland (end of animation loop),  the Jet stream bent Northwards,  as if the ex-Hurricane was a High pressure rather than a Cyclone.  Note the beginning of this animation small 993 mb Cyclone over Ireland having the Jet stream to its Southern perimeter.

 
<<<<<< Small 993 mb Cyclone with Southern Perimeter jet stream (traced in red),  quite normal and expected.


CMC surface map October 14 18:00 UTC
(Colour markings mine)






<<<<<<<<<<<Tropical Storm Nicole flanked to the North by jet stream (traced in red).

CMC October 17, 2016 12:00 UTC.
   (Colour markings mine)


<<<<<<<   Red line South of Greenland is the jet stream.








<<<<Post tropical storm nears Greenland.  Moving Northwards

CMC October 18,2016 18:00 UTC
  (Colour markings mine)








<<<<<<<   PTS Nicole still heading towards the Pole,  clearly bent and moved the jet stream Northwards.    Most often (but not always) Cyclones make the jet stream do the opposite,  bend Southwards.








          This is clearly an interesting observation,  approaching towards the North Atlantic run of the mill  Cyclones usually  influence the jet stream to move to their South.

 CMC 250 mb chart  October 19 2016,
PTS Nicole now an important Polar Cyclone,
right where most  Cyclones usually spin others to move Eastwards.   Northwards trek seems to have stalled,  but it is still a very significant
about 860 mb.  

<<<   Just starting jet at right of frame.

                       CMC October 19, 12:00 UTC surface chart.   As I write the Low is 962 mb.  






WD October 18,2016

Echoes of 2016 sea ice minima are reflected in present Arctic Ocean temperatures

Current North of 80N atmospheric temperatures are fabulously warmer than 2012 for quite a while.   There comes a point when collective evidence is simply overwhelming,  when there can be simplified conclusions drawn from it.   The joint stable long lasting cloud cover (despite the presence of moderate Anticyclones),  the persistent Cyclones hovering over the Arctic Ocean and exceedingly warm surface pan Arctic temperatures indicate a common denominator:  current sea ice condition is extensively weakened,  is thinner with intermixed myriad leads of open water.   To claim otherwise,  defies what we know from past sea ice to lower atmosphere interactions.

Arctic Ocean surface air temperatures were much colder same date October 17 2012,  NOAA (above).  -20 to -25 for significant areas.    Compared to 2016 which was about -10 C daily average at coldest,  indicating the mere beginning of winter at the densest pack location.   

     2012 densest pack was largely unscathed compared to 2016.   Winter 2012 started a whole lot more over the Arctic Ocean dense pack area  with stable over the sea ice pack Anticyclones in darkness,  the densest pack usually can do that every autumn.   2016 densest pack suffered a grand de-coiling wave at about sea ice minima of record, along with dispersive atmospheric circulation caused by persistent Cyclones North of Beaufort sea.   

From this evidence,  we may attempt a prognosis,  since 2016 coldest air build up is over Northern Siberia and mainly at the Canadian Arctic Archipelago,  and since the Arctic Ocean is surrounded by more land than sea ,  we may surmise that the Arctic Ocean area is uniquely warmer by itself,

will cool by extension from the coldest Continental zones,  2016 densest pack has just started consolidating well after 2012,,  and  the sea ice of 2016 is in far worse shape than 2012, but in a dispersed way,  which may confuse unless we look at everything.  WD October 17, 2016

JAXA extent artifact or floating snow?

   JAXA October 13 to 14,  14 recognized by extent gains in Laptev sea.  Central top of capture.

    CMC October 15 1200 UTC has very warm temperatures where the extent gain showed up near East Siberian Islands,

  CMC October 15 sea surface temperatures were equally very warm.

    NOAA 01:00 to 05:00 UTC ir animation.  Despite the presence of a moderate Anticyclone  the area in question was loaded with multi layered clouds.  The chance of snow showers were quite good.

         Whether a floating snow, artifact or sea ice creation event has happened ,  depends on our Russian friends North of Siberia  actually visually confirming   this...

Что ты видишь?

Спасибо WD October 15, 2016

World wide effects from less Arctic sea ice

~Record warm Arctic Ocean impacts planetary circulation

   NOAA Map room last 7 days,  amazing Arctic warm temperatures can have no other origin than self since further South its just as cold over great Northern landscapes, the continents:

From the same time period we can theoretically trace where the jet stream may be,  as above,  South of coldest air anomalies. which are uniquely over land.

    Theory fits with reality,  therefore very warm Arctic Ocean,  gets replenished by warm Pacific advection, a dynamic feedback loop.   A colder Arctic Ocean would have a completely different jet stream profile.  A colder Arctic would flatten the undulations.

Jet stream 1987 (left) October 2-9,  appears not quite the same as identical period 2016 (right).  Not that it should be absolutely the same,  but there are no longer seasonal similarities.  A jet stream shift has happened. The mega 1987 jet over the North Atlantic was typical, most times likewise fuelled by more massive North American cold air building up.    At the base of this change is sea and ice surface temperatures :

   The warmth didn't mix as much with the Arctic in 87 (left),  while winter was naturally expansive in October,  2016 (right) has a different temperature layout for a good chunk of the Northern Hemisphere.  Radical change in sea and ice surface temperatures would absolutely naturally contribute to cause the difference.
WDOctober 11-13,2016

North Pole current sea ice as terrible as it can get in October 24 hour darkness

By far the poorest  state of  North Pole sea ice observed for October,  indicates a hellish icescape of badly broken up sea ice interspersed with myriad of leads with thin ice and open water.  

  The larger view NOAA IR acquired by CMC Oct 10 2016 14:18:20,  its cooling a bit,    this is what happens when densest pack start reforming to its former thicker ice state.  But this is one of the worse if not the worse shape sea ice has ever been on this date of the year.  WD October 10,2016

Sea surface temperature -1.8 C is a thermal balance construct needing very cold air in especially warmer seas.

Barrow Strait Nunavut Canada

    -3 C surface air in light winds gave accretion stalling leaving brand new sea ice a darker look,  in effect to stay new, vulnerable to any wind event.    Sea water temperature warmed to -1.5 C,  a jump of +0.3 C since yesterday.  Today's lesson highlights a changed thermal balance,  because air temperature has increased substantially from -12 to -3 C.  This offered sea water column to warm the underlying top water layer.  As a result freezing has stopped:

Open sea water easily doesn't freeze at -3 C surface temperatures.  Especially because it is at -1.5 C,  the vast majority of ice formed at colder normal -1.8 C.  Cooler surface temperatures will eventually cause top sea water to be at -1.8 C.  But for this to happen,  it usually requires sustained cooling at -11 C,  because the water column has been warmed all summer. Once top of water hits -1.8 C it solidifies.  Afterwards, further cooling is needed as sea ice thickens,  in order to always achieve the needed  -1.8 C, otherwise further down sea warmth increases the top water layer temp.  High Arctic warm heat source in October is usually from the sea,  therefore a tendency for sea water to maintain its column temperature needs to be vanquished by extremely cold air.

        Coincidentally, warming of the Canadian Arctic Archipelago came from the North! Today in darkness around the North Pole,  a similar play in physics occurred:

     CMC October 5 18z 2016,  surface air temperatures over the Arctic Ocean were extraordinarily +15 C or more above normal,  air temperatures so high,  even in darkness affect the thermal balance at sea level, especially bringing out the nature of the new sea ice recently formed.  Many sea surface water temperatures locations  jumped from -2 to -1 C:

CMC SST readings September 5 2016,  Arctic Ocean sea surface temperatures warmed along with air surface temperatures,  a well insulated  sea surface with thick sea ice on top would not have reacted  so readily,  but has done the same as like further South in Barrow Strait Nunavut Canada.  WD Oct 5 , 2016

New sea ice starts from 3 important concurring factors: -1.8 C water, little or no sea waves and colder than -11 C surface temperatures

     Artistic sea ice made a giant polar bear!  But today 74.5 N 94.5 W was first sight of grey ice with frazil.  Just in front of the ice bear you can see 2 types of sea ice,   the -11 C type, (darker)  and the less salty water type whiter (bottom of photo) which froze between Multi year ice pans last week.  Overnight South Cornwallis Island temperatures varied between -11 and -12 C,  a wall of multiyear sea ice blocked wave action to the Bay  causing its surface water to be mirror calm,  and the sea water was measured finally at -1.8 C.     The 3 combined always produce frazil then grey ice:

From the Bay shore two different sea ice forming mixed with submerged snow.  After one week,  the mainly from uncharacteristic 12 mm High Arctic rain near beach fresher water tasting sea ice,  has not accreted a great deal, remained rubbery and broke easily:   

One week old  sea ice from mainly rainfall, is extremely fragile brakes on contact.  Can't carry any significant weight,  is rubbery,  very much appearing like sea ice further North near North Pole. 

It formed in much warmer temperatures.

      Later today,  temperatures warmed further and a lot of the grey ice seemed to have melted ,  there is an apparent thermal balance,  where as,  colder than -11 C  surface air seems imperative for sea ice to form.WD October 4, 2016   

Extraordinary season continues with exemplary exceptional summer clouds in October at 80 N latitude.

   Is it because of the low sun elevation ? No,  the clouds portrayed here are simply outstandingly big and high.   With tops 57,000 feet high according to the sun shadow.

     MSC NOAA Vis capture October  040000z These high clouds were ahead of a small Cyclone 996 mb,  no one was there  over the Arctic Ocean to see them,  here we can judge by there shadow that they were indeed very high likely Towering Cumulus clouds.    Amazing! WD October 4 2016