Arctic Basin pressure system switchover, on schedule

~A helpful defence against complete meltdown of all Arctic sea ice

   Arctic Ocean pressure system summer switchover occurs when Arctic cyclones persist over colder areas, as opposed to winter hugging over warmer sources, such as open sea water.  It is a phenomenal counter melting action, which saves sea ice extinction.   It turns out to be also,  a bearer of more Arctic rains on the Canadian  Arctic archipelago, furthering the detriment of permafrost,  which when warmed furthers the presence of Anticyclones which persist over warm sources in Arctic summers.    The reverse 

scenario, may happen,  such as during summer 2007, when a High Pressure system persisted over the Arctic Ocean gyre area, exacerbating the sea ice melting a great deal, even of very thick sea ice, this was likely a dynamic pressure blocking scenario, or just as much from an extreme heat wave over Arctic lands spilling over to sea,  which invites the presence of a steady High pressure system 

   CMC surface analysis, June 13 2025 00 UTC.  A Gyre Low, counters the normal Gyre clockwise current, which was powered by many winter months of a steady High pressure system.  It is characterized by colder temperatures,  likely sustained by clouds, which are a plenty when warm moist air streams over colder sea ice. The clouds and sea ice maintain a colder surface than adjoining areas bombarded with sun rays to the surface. I see the Great North Pacific warm temperature blob as the main source of moisture sustaining this balance of clouds.   Of Course, the North Atlantic , equally warmer, is another source. 

Referring to beginning of May projection from this website:

https://eh2r.blogspot.com/2025/05/2025-late-spring-summer-and-early-fall.html

   The rain onslaught is starting, only an extreme heat wave can break this from happening. WD June 13, 2025.

 

ENSO shift? Not seeing accostumed sea surface temperature platform chart, puts single station forecasting/projections to the test

 ~Not reading fresh NOAA sst maps makes ENSO forecasting harder

       Ground hog April 7 day, not renewed NOAA SST chart,  with a stuck in the past one day display, at least suggested then, a return to El-Nino.  There has been no daily production since.  Kind of removing an important forecasting tool.  

  Luckily, U of Maine reanalyzer posits otherwise.:

A reversal?  At least it reads so here, but everything is blurred again, the North Pacific strong sea temperature mega blob nesses ENDO predictions a great deal, especially from an Arctic point of viewing.  

May 19 2025 Massive Arctic cloudiness, multi layered, long lasting,  would, according to  ENSO cloud seeding theory,  suggest a return of El-Nino.  But it appears that the great North Pacific sea surface heat  blob,  much more so than  Atlantic influence let alone ENSO gyrations, will once again save the Arctic Ocean sea ice from total obliteration. 

The MIMIC look is astounding, wave after wave of Northward moisture, likely to continue all summer,  ensures little chance for a 2207 like July mega melt.  Indeed to  be enforcing, as projected, a quasi permanent Low pressure sitting a top the Arctic Ocean basin Gyre area.

    Likely spared summer sea ice does not mean recovery,  the Arctic sea ice Maximum is shrinking every spring, the ice is equally thinning every melt season as well.      WD May 20, 2025
 

2025 late spring summer and early fall weather projection, a lot influenced by refraction data

 ~Still after 21 years,  unorthodox

~There was a shift with previous 2 years, potential reason: it snowed more over the Arctic Ocean

  I am a bit late this year because of equipment malfunctions, with only 150 sun disk measurements,  I could only partially surmised the evidence with previous years, what it showed was the return of the spring CTNP, Cold Temperature North Pole,  over the Canadian Arctic Archipelago.    Which would have meant a break with last year more expanded sun disks, however it is complicated,  late winter very early spring sunsets were much more roundish, onto itself describing very important warming.  As said over the years, a sun disk measurement is an extremely accurate description of the temperature of the entire atmosphere. Arctic surface  touching lower sun limbs come often distorted,  it becomes not only a temperature of the entire atmosphere, but rather a very accurate description of the extreme lower atmosphere. It often looks like a spectrum with lines of the interface between air and:  ice, land or sea water.  Visualizing rounder sunsets is an important observation, it implies a significant warming over a very broad swat of the atmosphere.   March and April 2025 was much warmer than usual, with often days 10 C above normal.   This variation unto self, has caused some sunsets to be later, but most were lame in tardiness.  

   Sea ice was again thin,  some 50 to 80 cm thinner than the not so distant past.  It could have been even thinner, was it not for lack of snow cover and the strong wind storms being more common.  Thin sea ice combined with spring sun rays effectively start the sea ice melting season,  which was the earliest on record, as judged optically by the phenomenon called "first melt".  That is when the Astronomical Horizon is regained. When so ice at the bottom of sea ice looses accretion because the sun warmed up the top part enough this happens in the afternoon, for longer and longer time as the sun ascends further.   First melt has two basic components, the first sighting and subsequent  distinct period of when it occurs regularly every day,  the former was March 25,  the latter was very early April onwards. This is an indication that sea ice will melt earlier than expected likely throughout the Arctic. 

   May 2025 projection.  A strong presence of the Cold Temperature North Pole,  even in a  warmed world,  there will always be one.  C marks the spot the smaller c is the secondary just North of Eurasia. A high pressure should dominate the Arctic Ocean basin area,  until early June, the fading jet stream in yellow will collapse at a likewise time. A slowly moving Northwards High pressure will dominate the Canadian American boarder area at about Saskatchewan.  North Pacific and Atlantic Highs will substantially add heat to the already warmed oceans.  Gulf of Mexico moisture carried by cyclones will also be a common feature all the way to Newfoundland.   

     A smaller CTNP should lodge just off the North Pole on the Russian side.  The ever so present Arctic Ocean High pressure Gyre will switch to a near permanent cyclone  mid June, because of apparently extra  thicker snow cover,  which should transform in ice ravaging melt ponds, but the cylone clouds will be easing the sea ice melt from being extreme. Extra cloud feature alone slows the coming of a catastrophic total sea ice melt event.  Warmer Ocean in origin  clouds reflect sunlight otherwise destined to melt everything.  But the much warmer Oceans will one year overtake the benefits they give.  Main summer Archipelago feature will be the rains mainly fuelled by the much warmed North  Atlantic and Pacific.  The Polar jet stream will vanish early June  leaving Northern Hemisphere circulations to languish slowly or stop for days.   Again High pressures will dominate Central North America bringing even more warming to the Arctic.  Absent Polar jet stream with much warmed sub-Arctic will extend the number of days with heat waves everywhere.

   The white line over Arctic ocean is sea ice extent at minima. I expect a massive melt despite extensive Arctic clouds.  Year by year sea ice is thinning, despite expansive cloud albedo reflections, that is because Maximum is not sparred from warmer winter during the long night, sea ice in March was measured to be all time lowest in history.    Hurricanes should languish going nowhere or hug the coast of Gulf of Mexico and East Atlantic, not driven fast but stirred by synoptic weather .  Early autumn break from the rain awaits much of the Arctic.

    Not having a full slate of sun disk observations makes an ENSO prediction difficult,  usually sun disk diameter expansions have been linked with a surging El-Nino conversely more numerous than usual sun disk measurements were directly linked with La-Nina.   However, I can interpolate,  there was a lot of clear days until about beginning of April, suggesting either end of La-Nina or surging one.  whether of the 2 was answered in Cloudy April, La-Nina unlikely.   I have only one tool left from the sky which helps determine El-Nino,  and there was numerous extreme high clouds, beyond 25K laser range. Presence of  these gave a strong affiliation with El-Nino, so there is a likely coming El-Nino, if so good for sea ice given the extra clouds will spare extra melting. Despite all this, Arctic sea ice extent at Minima should be slightly lesser than 2012. WD May 4 2025

Roller Coaster clouds, mechanism confirmed by rapidly varying in direction winds and sudden refraction readings change

 ~Low clouds shaped by North to Northeast taking turns with Northwest winds,  natural art with interesting science.

~They implicate co-existing micro to macro dynamic structures, a rather much more complex meteorology, stubbornly mostly invisible. 

     The wavy nature of these just prior straight clouds, well away of a hill, are Roller Coaster clouds,  straight away from the camera lens is the Northwest, 90 degrees right Northeast winds cause the clouds to descend . You can note on the second wave, the up and down curve  mimics a coaster.  It turns out that the sky refraction varied when one wind direction dominated versus the other.  

20:00	-15.8	-18.3	81	LegendMM	35	17		101.38		-24	LegendNANA
21:00	-16.8	-20.1	76	LegendMM	1	34		101.31		-29	LegendNANA
22:00	-18.3	-21.2	78	LegendMM	32	21		101.31		-29	LegendNANA
23:00	-18.8	-21.7	78	LegendMM	35	27		101.24		-30	LegendNANA

Southwest Cornwallis Island consist of a raised beach descending to Barrow and McDougall Sound,  it has a  200 to 300 meter raised plateau a few Kilometres Eastwards from shore.  Hourly winds of record on April 25 also miss the Northeast gusts which happened late in the Evening (6th column is wind direction, 7th is speed in Km/hr.). 

The camera is aimed towards the Southeast, again occasional winds from the North or Northeast, in irregular sequence with winds from the Northwest created these spectacular Roller Coaster clouds, 200 meters or so high, touching the ground at about 40 meters.  

      At the same time of these I measured sun disks varying in dimensions confirming the mixed nature of the air, one was colder the other over all warmer.  This well defined cloud geometry is again the first time witnessed or filmed by me, this was a very rare event.  Surely something like this occurred in the past with only lenticular clouds far from touching the surface.  The refraction bit is quite exciting, it is not unusual to measure wild variations in sun disk dimensions, these are still a great puzzle,  because invisible air does not define. However, variable refraction moments indicate unknown un mapped air pockets,  some quite large and lasting, some fleeting and small.    This definitely indicates a rather complex atmosphere abounds all around us, sort of a field of Lorenz mega butterflies, may trigger, detour, reshape, stall or accelerate ongoing patterns.  This complexity may be known by some carefully looking at surface weather maps, showings mysterious small Lows or anticyclones, rather captured by satellite pictures and positioned on a weather chart.  There can be an abundance of small vortices, or on some days, none.  These are what makes weather difficult to predict,  they also can be uncovered, but no one is actually seeing or mapping them enough, EH2r introduces the beginning  tip of a discovery iceberg  perhaps leading to a radical different weather map never imagined, surely to be achieved, on a  future perfect good forecast spanning much longer than a few days. WD April 27 2025  

Leads everywhere! State of Arctic sea ice after Maximum extent 2025

~Again  never seen before, new Spring time Arctic Ocean  icescape

    April 20 1988 NOAA infrared satellite , Arctic Ocean surface ice looks bland, very cold,  nothing very much to report about, leads were found with difficulty, yet the setting for this picture had an extra effort application to find them.  Look at Smith Sound, the reverse V polynya in black, North of Baffin Bay, between Greenland and Canada.  There is some warm sea ice just to its South in faint grey. If there was any open water leads about the North Pole, they would have appeared in black. By the way, Smith Sound polynya feature is a complex creation of ocean currents, but in particular Kennedy Strait (North of the inverse pointed V) being solidly frozen, this allows many non migrating species to survive the winter, with more spacious open sea water.

Same picture, this time set to really look for the leads about the North Pole, there are many covering the Arctic Ocean, but these are old, likely some are multiyear old,  frozen over and thick.  The photo was enhanced to highlight dark colours, so much so that the IR temperature setting basically shaded land areas black, these were warmer further South, except for of course Greenland. 

Flash forward April 3 2025, NOAA IR HRPT Photo:

     Leads everywhere  you look about the Arctic Ocean having warmer sea ice surface,  Smith Sound Polynya deformed, viewed from space the planet appears to have  obviously warmed,  remember this photo is taken 2 weeks earlier than the 1988 one.

  The photo clearly demonstrates a sorry state of sea, deteriorated in a mere 37 years.  WD April 6, 2025

Very bright twilight or possible sunrise beginning of long day at the North Pole, 8 days before March 21

 ~Atmospheric refraction bends Earth's Terminator

~ Likely enough to cause a sunrise after long night. 

   March 13 2025 NOAA Satellite HRPT Visual Loop, shows the Terminator line, that is the border between night and day as the Earth rotates, here is a North Pole view. The terminator line is not straight, reflecting the varying atmospheric refraction properties which also depends on sea ice thickness. 2025 sea is likely at all time thinnest levels,  a very thick icescape would easily bring out a North Pole  sun on March 13,  however a very cold surface air just below much warmer air would do the same even with thinner sea ice. So it is a matter of being there at the North Pole to confirm this.   In this example, there was a stagnant pool of cold air spanning from Greenland to the Pole. This was enough to bend the terminator at the Pole,  therefore  a strong possibility that the sun line is present. 

     Same loop NOAA HRPT infrared.  Just North of Ellesmere Island is almost to North Pole "white zone", seasonal cold air,  being mixed with approaching cyclones from the North and the South.  This cold gives an imprint on the ice,  certainly capable of changing the horizon significantly especially after a sudden warming. 

 On a certain March 13 in the late 1980's a very capable de Havilland  pilot named Russell, flew near the Pole to confirm that it was bright enough to land a plane there.  There was enough contrast resolution to land an aircraft on natural sea ice while refraction surfing the light rays beyond earths shadow.WD March 13 2025

Big Lead no more straight, follows the coasline instead.

 ~A continuation of never seen before events

Radarsat NW Canadian Archipelago February 17,  The big lead just shows up, wuite remarkably clearly. 

NOAA HRPT loop same day, this time it is a wind driven opening, at winter's potentially coldest time.  In the not so distant past, this was a May event. On coldest  winter the big lead  also appeared more straight alongside the Canadian Arctic Archipelago NW shoreline.  WD February 17, 2025

Potomac crash flight paths, and background refraction

 -Actively looking for refraction effects, especially from street  lights, inconclusive from yet good video evidence.  The flight paths of both aircraft was captured pretty well, because of fixed mount of camera. The jet was descending slowly, while the helicopter appears to have changed altitude directions twice.

taken from:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZUI-ZJwXnZ4

the fix frame camera is very helpful, especially in detecting mirages, which did cause aircraft accidents on occasions in the past.  RIP to those lost, and condolence to families...WD January 31 2025. 

Never seen before series; this time great Arctic Ocean low cloud wave

 ~As far as I can remember  (with satellite photos observed since 1985), never seen such a wave of low altitude warm clouds of this magnitude in January :

NOAA Infrared HRPT loop, January 27 to 28 2025.   Massive low cloud wave, in black, since it is warm, coming from the North Atlantic, covering about 1/4 of the Arctic Ocean in about 1 day.and a half. Usually these were seen in narrower streaks. between Anticyclones and Low pressure systems. I do not recall seeing such a wave being so expansive. Note Greenland dryer air area of influence. There is a High pressure system on theNorth Pole to Siberia quadrant. WD January 28, 2025

More Never seen before sea ice events; the "big lead triples", and wide openings North of Greenland in January

 ~These are absolutely clear signs of a different Arctic winter sea  icescape. 

NOAA HRPT infrared picture, January 24 2025.  There are 2 "big leads" quite distant from Canadian Archipelago shore,.  These are mostly tide constructs along with winds. The "big lead" use to be a controversial subject originally described by the early North Pole explorers, the likes of Peary and Doctor Cook some 120 years ago.   The advent of Polar orbiting satellites proved them right. But the traditional "big lead" usually formed NW along side right near the archipelago.   Now there are 2 more of them...

    Note, the map overlay is offset, in green is the original location of the "Big Lead",  there are still signs of it here and there.  The historical "big lead" can be many nautical miles wide, appearing especially at or near full or new moon days.  In red, are the new ice order leads, distant and far away from the coast, likely due to the thinner state of sea ice.  

 Next Extraordinary appearance of wide open water, North of Greenland:

A remarkable, extraordinary NOAA Infrared HRPT ,  January 16 opening seen where usually only thin leads occurred, there is a water sky, on the East side of the opening from an open water source.   North of Greenland  ocean is where sea ice is pushed outwards to the East and South aided by tides.  All kinds of activity happens there,  numerous North South thin leads were the main features, indicating pack lice breaking up.  But these where only on Greenland extreme NE shoreline, the break zone now extends much further westwards   On Radarsat it looks even more chaotic: 

 

North of Greenland January 15 and 24, 24 has many more dark openings especially on the coast line...   Very strange, never seen midwinter event.  Again signalling a more fragile and overall thinner sea ice, breaking up wider more easily because it is less dense.   WD January 24 2025

Canadian Arctic Archipelago Arctic Ocean significant Tidal Zone moved South

 ~The active Arctic Ocean  open water tidal zone moved 170 Km Southwards in 2025

Just North of Amund Ringnes, circled in red, is an active Tide Zone , as of January 14 2025, way South of where it use to be. 

RADARSAT Canada expanded viewNovember 28 2024 and January 14 2025, really brings out a wide active zone, which opens and refreezes again and again just North of Amund R. .  The Arctic Ocean zone of activity was further to the North between the Northernmost tips of Elef Ringnes  (extreme top left) and  Axel Heiberg (extreme top  right) Islands, just North of Meighen Island, the little one in the middle in between the two.

Remains to be seen whether this new Active zone will last all winter. WD January 16, 2025

EAST Hudson Bay wide area boating season January 5 2025

 ~A current live event for Anthropogenic enhanced Global Warming.

~ Following up from this EH2r article: "https://eh2r.blogspot.com/2024/12/hudson-bay-revisit-wide-open-water.html

JAXA University of Bremen Sea ice extent , Hudson Bay complete freeze-up will be very late this season, a wide open boating season continues far off the entire  East Coast.. As of January 5.  

  

 "Freeze-up begins along the northern shore in September and gradually ex- tends southwards and eastwards. In the southeast, freeze-up occurs last, typically around the first of January. "  Eric Danielson Jr U. Of Calgary:

                Danielson's 1958-1965 data analysis.  Freeze up date boundaries,  truly tentative data though

From Sven Sungaard an important Graph:

     November 12 Hudson Bay sea ice extent 1971-2023.  1998 was a true starting point for Arctic wide perception of extreme warming.  Now lets look at Nov 12 2024:

"0" 

                                                                 Nothing! Apparently no sea ice.

   It is 19 days later than November 12  when a thin sliver of sea ice appears this season.....

Recent world wide warmest years in history had 100% coverage mainly around Christmas.  Current Hudson Bay complete freeze up awaits a date.  WD January 7 2025

Never seen before redux, this time just North of Amund Ringnes Island

~A tidal lead never seen before in January:

                                                  Surrounded by red dots Amund Ringnes Island

    Very rarely mentioned, nor frequented, Amun Ringnes Island fame occurred long ago when it was first discovered in 1900 by Otto Sverdrup a Norwegian explorer. 

Just to its North a Tidal lead which opened about a week ago:

   Onto itself, Arctic sea ice Archipelago channel wide tidal leads are more frequent in the spring to fall, not in January, very few occur nearly year round, they are mainly caused by strong tidal currents.  Detected by NOAA Polar Orbiting Jan 1 2025 high res satellite.  This Amund Ringnes never seen in January event, is merely an extension of the Arctic Ocean lack of thick or ridged sea ice in the not so long ago past assuring a winter permanent presence of ice at the same location, there was no such wide openings possible. 

 A closer look Radarsat look at the lead , January 5 just frozen, but appears to break open often as frozen tide lead lines indicate.

WD January 6,7  2025  

Hudson Bay revisit, wide open water Eastern quadrant, less cloud effect.

 ~Surreal open water end of December, Hudson Bay illustrates Earth Warming fast

JAXA Dec 23 comparison , sea ice extent, 2012, 2016, 2023, 2024 ; respectively year of:warmest sea ice melt in history,  2016 very powerful El-Nino, last year middle of a milder El-Nino than 2016 , current December 23 (2024).

    It is fair to say 2012 greatest sea ice melt in history would take longer to recover, it is equally succinct to demonstrate warmest El-Nino effects should be bad for sea ice in 2016, Hudson Bay started to show even slower refreeze in 2023, but 2024 surpasses them all:

   December 23 2024,  incredible certainly for the people living on Hudson Bay Eastern shores. 

   Sea water usually doesn't freeze at -1 C unless 2 m air temperatures are about -11 C or colder, in especially calm winds:

CMC 0 C degree sea surface temperature line way North.

    Albedo caused by near 0 degree Centigrade fog and clouds gracefully slow down Arctic Ocean sea ice melting totally during summer.   Hudson Bay gets less of this happenstance because it is surrounded by land, once upon a time more frozen for a long period of the year.   Not anymore, since mainly from the West air circulating over drier vast lands eventually sheds its total moisture content, causing more over all sunshine. Equally these lesser clouds over H.B. bombards its sea water to be warmer, the surrounding lands likewise.

       The lesson here is that faced with a lesser cloud summer event, the Arctic Ocean sea ice would pretty much easily disappear at extent minima.  Hudson Bay total sea ice cover, once a beginning of December event, now moves forward into winter not as fiercely cold as it was just a few years ago.  WD December 25, 2024. 

Enormous heat from thinner sea ice blunts and deforms world wide winter circulation

 ~We look at the source of strange weather holistically, but in particular where it is more perturbed.

~Hurricane like heat injects into the Arctic fall and early winter atmosphere simply because Arctic sea ice is thinner. 

  Voyage of the FRAM, Nansen Norwegian polar expedition, 1893-1896.   On the red trail above, Arctic sea ice was recorded to be 3.1 to 3.8 meters thick.

    Same track DMI Dec 15 2024,  gives a thickness nowhere close to 3 meters, something like 0.5 meters at start of famous expedition journey.  

     O.5 meters of sea ice, spanning a huge area gives off close to 100 Watts/m2 heat into the Arctic Ocean atmosphere directly above,  in total darkness,  compare this to CO2 contribution of 4 Watts/m2, consider this warming giving a glimpse of things to come. Remember Nansen reported 3 meters thickness, this capped the Arctic ocean heat transfer almost completely then.

What does this heat injection do?:

U of Maine Climate Reanalyzer,  thinner Arctic sea ice heat injection to the atmosphere, literally shows up almost every day as a warming directly into Polar darkness.  Making a definite very strong contribution to 2 m surface warming.   In turn, the alteration of sea  icescape thickness modifies planetary waves morphology, these are Polar Vortex contortions, greatly affecting weather everywhere onto the warming caused extremes everyone experiences.  WD December 15 2024 

Thinning sea ice looks like no other time, but extent results don't show it

 ~  Amazing degradation of sea ice tidal ridging zone in one year

This was the sea ice picture of 2023-24,  the freezing in place of new sea ice, a huge area, not destroyed by daily tidal ridging, the black area North of Axel Heiberg Island  (the Island with Fjords at right)  

   December 23 2023 Polar View High Resolution image of a huge area of sea ice lasting all winter.  A first in the corrupted by AGW Arctic Ocean sea ice. Although winter 2024-25 has not as large fast thin ice area at freeze up,  over all sea ice condition is worse in a vaster expanse: 

  Same area onset of winter freeze, December 3 2024,  but there is an even greater cumulative  area of thinner and broken up sea ice, giving a loose pack ice look North of NW Canadian Archipelago Islands.  This is a view of the last stand of Arctic Ocean summer sea ice, before there are none in summer, what is left of the thickest sea ice is badly broken up.  I suspect that next December 2025 will look even more grim.  This area has great tides from The Northwest, ensuring ridging or the thickening sea ice by the sheer weight of massive sea ice folding ice sheets on top of each other, but if the greater Arctic Ocean pack ice is equally thinner the ridging mega push looses strength as was the case for winter 2023-24

    Heat radiation gained to the atmosphere by much depleted, thinned Arctic Ocean sea ice is enormous. This significant feature will reduce the shape and extent of the coldest Northern Atmosphere  (The Polar Vortex) during winter will affect the climate of every Northern Hemisphere location.  WD December 4 2024  

Abnormal beyond model warming; One big reason: Slower moving circulation caused by vanishing thinning Arctic sea ice

 ~Interesting article by GSC Gavin Schmidt, a must read:  https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/13/opinion/climate-change-heat-planet.html

~Most can be indirectly understood if you read my latest of many similar yearly April climate Projections for the summer fall:

https://eh2r.blogspot.com/2024/04/2024-summer-fall-projection-forecast.html

The reason why the warming is greater for the Northern Hemisphere is simple, Arctic sea ice reduction in area and thickness surrounded by continents.  For this we must look at NASA GISS:

                  Annual mean Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius
                                      selected zonal means
                                      --------------------
                    sources:  GHCN-v4 1880-10/2024 + SST: ERSST v5 1880-10/2024
                    using elimination of outliers and homogeneity adjustment 

                         Note: ***** = missing - base period: 1951-1980  

                           24N   24S   90S     64N   44N   24N   EQU   24S   44S   64S   90S
Year  Glob  NHem  SHem    -90N  -24N  -24S    -90N  -64N  -44N  -24N  -EQU  -24S  -44S  -64S Year
2021    85   114    55     143    65    53     206   136   127    72    58    72    33    30 2021
2022    89   116    62     152    56    70     235   150   127    62    51    78    40   108 2022
2023   117   150    85     178   106    71     258   187   147   108   105    90    45    62 2023
Year  Glob  NHem  SHem     24N   24S   90S     64N   44N   24N   EQU   24S   44S   64S   90S Year
                          -90N  -24N  -24S    -90N  -64N  -44N  -24N  -EQU  -24S  -44S  -64S
 The zonal mean 64-90 North and South says it all.  There is a continent wide Glacier at the South Pole, while at the North Pole there is a continent size Ocean covered by sea ice.  If this sea ice vanishes,   something likely to happen during a coming summer, temperatures at North Pole Region would warm much more.  At the moment, the warming is gradual but close to 4 times faster compared to the Antarctic.
    A slowing of global circulation is a symptom of massive temperature differentiation from one temperature zone to the next,  as the Arctic sea ice disappears so will the Northern Hemisphere swift weather events usually lasting a day or so, temperatures between the North Pole and Equator will be significantly less, engendering slow to sluggish circulations causing catastrophic events to linger, such as Typhoon/Hurricanes moving slowly over a populated area, as already happened.  Causing entire regions languishing under same weather conditions for days or much longer,  such as excessive droughts, never ending heavy rain periods as has happening more recently again.  
   July peak record breaking temperatures way above climate model projections (NYtimes article) is an indication confirming that Northern Hemisphere is warming faster than the South, largely tempered by massive Oceans and said huge Antarctic Glacier.  There is ample evidence of Arctic sea ice changes, suffices to say, its state is nowhere similar compared with a mere 20 years ago.  Especially autumn and winter ice topography, recently more broken and with open water, along with the warmed Oceans have caused our present delay of onset of winter worldwide.  WD December 1 2024
 

Introducing the Optical Ancient Chronology , using archeo-astronomy enhanced by refraction science

~The importance of an accurate Ancient Chronology helps explain climate induced historical events, some spanning for decades.  For instance, incredible monuments like the Giza Pyramids were not built during massive droughts, of which devastating famines following their construction caused a lost of technological prowess which built them in the first place.  Or for instance, the rise of Egyptian 18th Dynasty New Kingdom which started by expelling the Hyksos, the latter likely weakened by another disastrous drought period.  Following of which in the middle of the 18th,  Pharaoh Hatshepsut temple was built during an era of normalcy giving prosperity, sustaining an Ancient Egyptian renaissance period re-establishing the building of magnificent monuments and structures.

~Today's Anthropogenic enhanced climate change is much compensated by modern technology, but the limits of this techno driven world are already being tested, in the form of civil strife and mass migration. Given that much of the world's population are living day by day, at the razor edge of survival, a prolonged climate event, such caused from AECC, makes for great motivation to leave a day by day razor's edge existence to desperately migrate to the countries who fare better despite extreme weather events.  

~History is full of  pre industrial climate disasters, even though they didn't last very long (decades to 100 years or so).  None more salient than the 12th century collapse of the Bronze age Mediterranean civilizations, or the greatest example of our ancient past,  the collapse of Ancient Egypt Old Kingdom.  

 ~ Being so fitting we start with 4 optically aligned years,  all ancient Egyptian.

~All can be refined given better data, note most  data is taken from what is available online, Google Earth can regionally be accurate if proven so.  Far better on site research with the highest precision GPS instruments can ultimately lead to more solid dating. 

NOTE : these dates are tentatively close, some will likely change. They are presented in order of discovery

KMT 1

2370 BC ........ A KMT 1, Ancient Kemet/Egyptian 1,  start of construction year of the Great Pyramid, Pharaoh Khufu coronation 2340 BC, followed by coronations of Djedefre, Kefren and Menkaure between 2340 and 2302 BC, in the Queens chamber of the Great Pyramid.

          Astronomical prowess of Ancient Egyptians need not to be reintroduced, the very orientation of the Giza pyramids is self explanatory. But these pyramids reflect a stronger adherence to the upwards sky absent of refraction, except for the Sphinx gaze to the horizon, which has a strong refraction component, making it not as stable with respect to precision, perfection.  The Great Pyramid was based on the transit equivalency of Sopdet/Sirius and RA/Sun occurring 30 days before the winter solstice (in 2370 BC).  Khufu Ahket, the name of the great Pyramid as written then, meaning the horizon of Khufu, has a relation to the horizon only with respect to the sunrise at the equinox.   

KMT 2

1313 BC  Amenhotep IV, Akhenaten Coronation year.  Akhenaten tried to re-establish the solar RA dominance in governance, replacing Amun as the God of Gods and placing RE or the Aten as the God which can be always felt and seen. 

          There are several corroborating monuments and historical findings which tend to agree with 1313. Namely the alignment of the Great Aten Temple at Akhetaten or Tel el Amarna.  Two boundary stelae proclaiming in a very clever secret way the date of Akhenaten coronation,  a new hieroglyph inspired by a blue refracted hourglass sunrise, only possible at higher elevation horizon as found at Akhetaten/Amarna [involving heavy refraction science ].  The dendrochronology dating of the Uluburun shipwreck dedicated firewood for cooking, 1305 BC,  also found on the wreck;  a gold scarab of the great wife of Akhenaten, Nefer Neferu Aten, or Nefertiti, not co-ruling yet.  

                                   Clean air blue sunset or sunrise upon a higher horizon.  

KMT 3

 3422 BC.  Pharaoh 0,   the first Pharaoh was crowned when the winter solstice transit sun was at the same altitude as Sirius at transit.  From this time onwards, Sirius/Sun Transit equivalence drifted earlier in the year away from the winter solstice, this is the proto genesis of all Pharaohs of especially the Old Kingdom mainly upwards look at the sky.  This was a quasi refraction free high precision moment in time. 

KMT 4

   1427 BC +/- 20 years based on 116.767 degrees Azimuth dot sunrise    Hatshepsut temple at Waset/Luxor/ Deir el Bahri, aligned with the winter solstice sunrise, designed by her vizier architect and astronomer Senenmut.

        Caution must be taken with Google Earth accuracy, therefore the large +/- variance in dating. Some GE regions of the world may be well off, some others like at Luxor apparently not. This can be much improved by high precision in situ GPS equipment. 

A paper:    " Studying the Orientations of Luxor Ancient Egyptian Temples Using QuickBird Images"

By Mosalam Shaltout and Ahmed Ibrahim Ramzi

1. NRIAG (National Research Institute of Astronomy and Geophysics), Cairo 11421, Egypt 2. NARSS (National Authority for Remote Sensing and Space Sciences), Cairo11421, Egypt  "  

 Gives  a bearing of  116 degrees 48′34.44".  116.746 degrees Azimuth. While using Google Images GEO Eye-1.

    The sunrise dot as seen from Luxor Eastern then pristine mainly pollution free hill scape can be less than 8 arc seconds in width.  While using Laskar latest declination formula, and considering a near constant refraction value from higher elevation horizons, as derived from local Upper Air archives.  The winter or summer sunrise solstice is likely the easiest horizon high precision astronomical bearing (if not the only one) which can be found within a few years of observations. In Ancient Egypt, this certainly became an understanding which prompted a shift in building philosophy which in its past was particularly designed to avoid refraction effects, from the Great Pyramids, inspired by well above the horizon gaze, to the Middle and New Kingdom temples of the Nile Valley, being mostly sunrise dedications having the same astronomical alignment accuracy as the pyramids, achieved without expending far greater resources.  Hatshepsut temple was likely aligned with the predynastic concept of the original pharaohs being Gods, ie pharaoh 0, since Hatshepsut claimed her father being a God.  Hatshepsut  coronation/dedication had exactly the same sun shaft as with the Great Pyramid Queen's chamber. except it was much miniaturized in length but aimed at the horizon like the Sphinx.  And she was known to have made built a lot of sphinxes.

               An 8 Arc seconds wide sunset, it can be just as much a sunrise dot.  These are easily seen by normal eyesight alone. The perfect positioning with respect to Hatshepsut Temple needs a flat leveled field, such as found in front her temple.  Then by means of thin rods,  suspended plums or even stones, a repeat alignment of the furtherest South winter solstice sunrise may be replicated on a few occasions, identifying the true solstice bearing.  During such alignments, a small shaft as found at the temple, may be built with the comprising solstice sunrise dot at the center lower shaft bottom, this permits subsequent years whole sun to penetrate the inner sanctum starting center left if the air is heavily refracted, or drifting from center to the right after normal average refraction sunrise.  Thus a small wall with square shaft may be built first before the entire temple structure is built around it.    

More to come Looking for historian or Egyptologist to co-write for peer reviewing please reply your interest here in the comment option by saying hi,  will see your email thereafter.

wd May 19,21,, 2024

  

      

                   

2024 Summer Fall projection forecast based on Arctic in origin synopsis

~ Similarities with recent years may be few

~Very late Arctic Basin High to Low pressure switchover is expected

April-May

   Clouds domination affect two primary weather parameters, one is snow on the surface, two is apparent slow melting of sea ice.  In other words, an apparent cooling will be the result,  building cold High pressure systems, which become stable over the Arctic basin Gyre until a switchover occurs, this when cold surface air is part of a summer Low pressure system. There should be a High pressure system dominating most days over the Arctic Basin Gyre throughout this period. The extra snow is a proxy for sea ice, it is not as stable as sea ice, from snow sublimation and under sea ice warmer water temperatures.  The thinner sea ice area come June and July, bereft of snow, will likely maintain a summer High pressure system, favoring warmer air. Thereafter, when the ice melts, open Polar cooler ocean becomes the main main attraction for Arctic summer cyclones, so switchover is expected in late July primarily because winter heat imprint on sea ice on the Canadian side of the Pole is far stronger than on  the Russian side.  This late switch in pressure system locations would have been much earlier given a CTNP dominances on the Canadian side, that was not the case.  A double H high pressure symbol,  from blue to war red, indicates the evolution of the nature of anticyclones when spring turns to summer. The cold nights and low noon sun of spring favors High’s being cold, eventually the sun gaining height in the sky literally changes the nature of pressure systems. A Blue High indicates a stable much slower transition, like wise with cyclones which are usually always cooler in summer, but except for in origin warm sea cyclones,  including intense hurricanes. 

June-July

    The Arctic basin Gyre will be blasted by more sun rays than usual on account of a late pressure switchover, at about mid July onwards the extreme sun bath slows down.  Desert High Pressures will expand in extent Northwards in both America and from North Africa.   The Lone CTNP cell will hang about Russia, apparently causing a delay in ice melting there.  The Polar jet stream will collapse in pieces  but along  near this cell.  Cold surface hugging cyclones will dominate wherever open water subsists, one must remember the effects of El-Nino worldwide extra clouds on creating extra precipitation, making their final disruptions, mid west North America late July onwards.  The dissolution of the CTNP will finally entail a strong late melting rate on the Russian side of the Pole, 

August-September

   Unfortunately, predicting that there will be another great sea ice melt is easy, its final form, extent and where it melts not so.  Eventually as August progresses Greenland takes prominence as the only Mega albedo area in the Arctic, it should become the CTNP, but its altitude prevents this, however remnant Arctic Basin sea ice will team up with Greenland to form the new Polar Vortex of sorts, hence a zone of High pressures to the North and Southwards of Greenland will be encroached by slow moving cyclones. East of Greenland median cyclones often to become quasi stationary over open vast open sea water areas.  To the West of Greenland median ever so inching Northwards cyclones appear to  struggle moving North by Synoptic weather systems.  Western Europe and Central North America will have  significant slow moving High Pressures not part of the desert anticyclones further Southwards. As El’Nino does not usually foster numerous hurricanes , the few will be caught from being quasi stationary by the elongated Greenland Southern High pressure, ensuring slow rotational death at sea in the East Atlantic, or slow encroachment Northwards joining the Eastern North American seaboard.  Not like typhoons venturing further  North than ever thought possible.  The biggest problem for a complete Arctic sea ice melt will continue, mainly by two factors; waning El-Nino twinned with the ever so persisting North Pacific surface sea water high temperature blob, a perpetual cloud machine.  I’d expect a greater melt than 2012 but not by much, Arctic basin sea ice remnants at minima will look awfully battered and emaciated though. Freeze-up in October will permeate the Arctic Ocean shores with even more fast ice extending much larger than October 2023.   If the Arctic Ocean winter come December looks like a dark ring of thin ice throughout the entire inner Sea, 2025 melt will finally clear at the Pole. It was amazing to witness thick pack sea ice not overpowering the much thinner NW Canadian archipelago expansive dark fast ice all winter.   The end of summer sea ice is nigh within a few years if this dark ring occurs.  In the mean time, Canadian side 2024 Northwest passage will open first before the Russian North East one, however the broken ice from the larger Basin will clog channels up for a while.  

    Over all weather is what you’d expect from the last few years except for the greater moisture impact El-Nino gives, a tandem dynamic effect in the Polar regions was and is a significant CTNP shift towards Russia, it is very unlikely that weather in most parts of the Northern Hemisphere will be the same as Summer 2023.  Rather the only thing similar is the slow sluggish movement of weather systems, obviously under more rainy conditions, that is a key difference , but not where massive anticyclones hardly move.  For some celebrate during  great sunny weather days, for others too much every day solar heat than desired induces Air Conditioning isolation inside the smaller world home, too much of any weather feature is never pleasant.  The consequences of slow moving pressure systems give simultaneous extreme weather differences within the same continents, ‘extreme lack of familiar weather’  will be key often repeated words surely  to be used.

Extraordinary Polarview central Northwest coast of the Canadian Arctic Archipelago black fast ice (2024/02/18), fast ice is first year ice while the white ones are multiyears), stayed like so the entire winter, while in a few years past would have been easily crushed when first formed in late autumn.  

Shoreline black ice survived all winter long well into the spring,  and is now moving with rest of Basin pack after early spring break.  Such ice, thinner and new year, ringing the entire Arctic Ocean Basin shoreline in October would be a bad presage announcing a coming wider if not complete sea ice melt.  

     NOAA sea surface temperature page, the great Pacific high sea surface temperature blob survives still, except a bit weaker, nevertheless a great cloud enhancer considering even a weakening El-Nino combined with every sea warmer, notably and especially the Atlantic and Indian oceans. These are progenitors of heavy rains, and for the Arctic, more clouds.WD April 24, 2024