Tuesday, June 7, 2016

The models may be calculating the sea ice surface to air interface temperatures incorrectly

~ Some surface buoys corroborate the prime horizon refraction rule

   Having dealt before with doubtful calculations output by NOAA NCAR/NCEP with respect to top sea ice temperature,  it seems suspicion confirmed by remote weather stations placed on sea ice.   The ice core temperature minimum of 2015f (82 N 147 W)  in particular on June 5 was really cold with lowest sun position, but as usual,  solar radiation whacked out any precision with top thermistors most times,  leaving us with only its average surface temperature to contemplate.  It was -4.8 C for that day.  At the same location NCAR/NCEP calculated -3.   Now consider that an actual measurement can be done from space,  the skin temperature or ice surface,  it should be quite precise.  NCAR/NCEP result was between -1 and 0 C.   However, this is a violation of sea ice refraction prime rule,   top of sea ice was never observed warmer than surface air.    To cap this off,  2015f reported  12:00 UTC surface temperature at  -7.39 C,   now we turn to nearby sea ice surface weather stations at 12:00 UTC 80 N 110 W read -1,   76 N 160 W read -2.   Welcome to the world of metric confusion,  when temperatures seem really irregular.  Another surface Auto station on Prince Patrick Island reported a more probable -7 (76 N 120 W). 

     To make sense of all this,  one must weed out possible errors,  to play it safe,  only 2015f surface measurements seem accurate along with surface temperature from land based auto station.  Why so?  Because thermistor 2,  likely in ice, recorded -6.7 C at 12 UTC,  with a low sun solar radiation corruption.  Later, the morning less bombarded with photons thermistor  shoots up 5 C in 8 hours  with higher sun. 2015f reported surface temp -2.9 C at 20:00 UTC while same colder morning thermistor reported +0.17 C,  one would expect similar rise in temperature between surface and top of sea ice, but sea ice gained more degrees than surface measurement,  again highly unlikely since sea ice and snow have very strong albedo,  unless of course there is water on the said thermistor surrounded by sea ice.

   No wonder Arctic models have trouble being precise,  there is very little accurate observations to compare their output with.  

        June 5 1200 UTC CMC surface analysis.

NOAA surface skin analysis,  apparently the sea ice average temperature was warmer than the surface air over most locations.  Mass Buoy 2012f recorded an average  surface temperature -4.8 C,  3 degrees colder than model skin temperature calculation. 
The daily average surface temperature of about -3 C over Beaufort Gyre was 2 C  colder than top of sea ice "skin" average which is in violation of refraction prime rule.   In this example, the adiabatic lapse rate between top of ice and surface measurement is a mere 1000 C/Km, the stuff of road asphalt.  2015f same day average surface temperature was about 2 C colder.   In somewhere lies a geophysical modelling algorithm error.  WD June7,2016

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