Saturday, May 21, 2022

EH2r Projection bang on, Arctic Basin Pressure switchover appears to be late

~Apparently not many are aware of this precision in predictions way in advance.
~But then again nobody uses the sun disk as a thermometer, hopefully in time this will change
~Eh2r predictions from multiple observations is looking really good,  in all aspects except for sea ice extent
~Nevertheless its exciting (for at least 30 followers)  when a deep Arctic circulation system is understood,  in essence Arctic temperatures dictate all weather movements Southwards 

18 UTC CMC surface prog May 6 (1025 mb High over Arctic Ocean Basin), 18 and 20, 2022,  look a likes.   to this projected May 1:

Eerily similar isn't it?      The main player is the giant C  in purple,  the Cold Temperature North Pole of the Polar Vortex.   Is cold,  but small,  but really cold:
  CMC 700 mb May 21 at 1200 UTC,  -30 C over Eureka,  Ellesmere Island Canada, wow that is cold but covering a small area.  However this fuels a stable surface High pressure over the Arctic basin,  but soon,  about mid June a dramatic pressure system switchover will occur,  a Low pressure will replace the Arctic Basin High pressure,  because,  Eureka will be very warm!  Last few years this projected switch came earlier.  The present steady circulation picture,  implies vaster areas of sea ice melt ponds,  spelling doom for it,  which seems to be fairing the usual bad,  but not a terrible melt pace yet,  again this will look much worse come late July,  worser than last few years.  Even if persistently cloudy,  and so goes the sea ice non recovery,  whereas climate is totally a key player.  The unstoppable Arctic warming continues even during LaNina period,  usually implying a cooling to take place,  but foiled again by Greenhouse gases.  WD May 21 2022

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