Sunday, May 30, 2021

Spring 2021 switchover , transpolar drift staller

 ~Most likely occurring today.

~But not after a great sustained Arctic Basin Gyre did its thing.


 A typically strong Arctic transpolar stream  is pushing out sea ice in great volumes,  but the results are not quite showing since North Atlantic melting has begun.  ITP map

May 30 polar View  SAR shows the exit of old sea (right) pushed by thinner sea ice (top left) which will settle most likely North of Greenland soon,  and there will be great open water  there.  

   It will settle because: 

     CMC prog,  18 UTC may 29, followed by 00-06-12-18 UTC May 31.  Look in particular for the High over Northern Quebec and Atlantic, plus the Low pressure system NW of the Canadian Arctic Archipelago,   this Low already stubbornly present, will persist to affect the sea ice current in favor of saving the sea ice from landing in warm Atlantic waters.  But all the ice dumped to Fram Strait , East of Greenland will melt,  its sort of deja vu dynamics going back a few recent years.  The 2nd smallest minima in history, last September,  gave a lot of new sea ice, melting in place thinner sea ice depends on clear skies, which will happen pretty much everywhere outside of a hovering Low pressure system.
But if 24 hour sunny,  with cleanest air in decades,  which explains the current melting tardiness, melting will be very swift.  WD May 30, 2021


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