Friday, April 24, 2020

2020 Annual spring projection, in more details.

~We must remember December 2019 boxing day all time in recorded history low temperature at center of Polar Vortex.   
~As a matter of prognosis,  the  recent overwhelming stable wider area of warming in 24 hour darkness had a side effect,  a smaller area of stable cooling.
~The center of Polar Vortex: the Cold Temperature North Pole will be at the N.P.
~Sun disk observations have shown remarkable early spring warming Northwestwards from center of Canadian Arctic Archipelago,  why is this strange and unusual? 
~2020 Vertical sun disk slight expansion numbers changes past 2 years all time low compressions numbering nil.
~ENSO variations closely resembles vertical sun disk expansion data

Et tu ENSO?

2020 Summer La Nina or El-Nino?   Is the big question.    The usual excellent NOAA updates and analysis suggest a neutral summer again.  There has been very peculiar no La-Nina rebound since very warm 2016 El-Nino.   What we know is that a La-Nina favors dryer air colder winter, as opposed to El-Nino creating more clouds (the cloud seeding theory) giving a cooler summer but warmer winter.   However, the evidence on ENSO variations from afar can be observed.  In the Arctic (and elsewhere) El-Ninos give much higher sliver clouds making spectacular twilights. Again, I observed both types this late winter,  none or few black or white wafer thin high altitude clouds, varying from week to week.  This indeed suggests a Neutral ENSO is coming.  But there is another way to indirectly observe ENSO trends:

NOAA ENSO variations (in colour ) vs Average Vertical sun expansion diameters, from 2002 to 2020.  If one spring year had more average sun disk expansions than others , like super warm El-Nino  2016,   its numbers of maximum sun disks would overwhelm all other years,  as it did (18).  Keep in mind that the NOAA meiv2 time series displays data throughout the years +months and sun disk expansions are measured in the very late winter - early spring.   If you use your mouse you will find that peak vertical sun disk numbers coincide with ENSO trending or being at El-Nino,  for instance 2011-12 trended towards El-Nino,  in all cases except for 2010 to 2011 La-Nina.   What this sun disk graph suggests is that we are trending El-Nino. 

Arctic Particulate de-pollution


  Contrary to popular belief,  our sun is white.  Next to Greenland, impossibly white  to look at with most of its disk under the Horizon.

April 2 2020 

   Note the brilliance of sun lines, not because the camera setting was overexposed.   Horizon colours are of interest, pinkish,  while more brownish in all past recent years.  


  April 2 2015,  same date but 6 minutes earlier than above.  The sun line looks not as colourful,  with a much darker background profile.    There was no Covid-19 Pandemic at the time,  the 2020 horizon appeared lighter, even if most aircraft and many industrial activities were beginning to grind to a halt.    

  2020 Spring sunsets did not occur frequently because NW passage sea ice was often with water skies and distant fog from open water, all caused by significantly thinner sea ice.  

2020 Vertical sun disk diameters,  what's the score?

     In 2016,  of 120 decimal levels , 19 had average vertical sun disks maximums,  making it #1 again,  2018 and 19 were at the bottom of the pack having nil maximas,  2020 has a marked 2020 mini resurgence,  with large vertical sun disks early on the season, not being completely diminished by subsequent measurements.  All was done with at least 500 observations (still on going,  will likely exceed 700) from decimal levels  -0.9 to 10.9 degrees astronomical elevations.  During the last 3 years the center of the Polar Vortex,  the coldest point in the Northern Hemisphere,  was most often very near the middle of  Canadian Arctic Archipelago (CAA).   A slight change has occurred lately.  Usually the start of the season vertical sun disks are measured larger, cold was not set yet, it is usually warmer Southwards as well,  the peak of cold is curiously offset about 1 month or so after the end of the long night.  A true Arctic saying: "it's colder when the sun returns"  has been confirmed again and again.  The scan in elevations gradually changes from South to Northwest,  at winters end, the sun scan is focused Southwards,  as the midnight sun approaches,  the scans veer in directions until 10 degrees sun elevation becomes at midnight local time,  straight North.  Curiously, the peak in disk compressions were usually measured in April and May,  because the sun disks go through Northern CAA air at very long distances ( observing very high in latitude atmosphere just coming out of darkness).    Unlike 2018 and 19,  2020 vertical diameters were not so much diluted as the sunsets veered Northwards.  So far, Northwards sun disks are expanding,  the meaning is simple,  it is warmer towards the Northwest.  Another method of depicting position of the PV center is to look more straight up to the Southwards sun,  2018-19 observations had remarkably compressed  sun disks in April and May towards high elevation sun disks,  above 10 degrees elevation,  to date 2020 demonstrates a warming,  less refraction,  towards the Southern and Northwestern sectors, not compressed like 18-19.   The Southern disk expansions describe a Polar Vortex shifting North,  the Northwestern expansions indicate the Vortex is smaller than 2018-19 or is further towards NE Greenland.  The regular weather maps have long indicated a much more Northwards positioning of the PV center as well.  Care must be considered especially when a cyclone crashes towards PV center,  the PV becomes elongated Southwards,  it usually does not mean,  as sun measurements suggest,  that the PV center has moved.  

Spring Ozone hole sun disk observations

               Extraordinary 2020 spring ozone hole,  even surpassing 1997.  Connected further down in altitude, the Polar Vortex between the troposphere and the stratosphere was in sync especially when the tropopause,  the often high altitude prominent thermal inversion zone between these 2 layers,  became absent.    2020 temperatures at center were in the -80's at about 200 mb heights.  Note,  2019 had faint beginnings of a likewise unified center of vortex on top of the CAA.  2018 had a greater secondary PV center over North Siberia,  winter 2017-18 had a dominant PV start on the center North Russian side of the Pole. 

     2020 ozone depletion reasons for  existing will be studied for years to come,  similarly to 1997's,  which was about 20 % weaker.  

      Sun disk wise,  looking at the higher in altitude sun  in March revealed massive unusual vertical disk compressions.  some .2 to .3 arc minute compressions above 15 degrees altitude,  basically picking up to potentially high impact from a super cold Stratosphere ,  up to 30% of the sun disk size refraction, roughly equal to the Earth's stratospheric pressure contribution.  This extraordinary compression rate dropped to normal,  to about .1 arc minute,  by mid April.  Which again means we were no longer under  a Ozone hole,  or the more unified Polar Vortex has moved or filled as well:

      The vanishing remnants of ozone hole 2020.   

                       Solar Refraction method GT predictions:

       Stemming from these numerous observations,  it is likely that Global Northern Hemisphere temperatures will be at #1.  The smaller hovering Polar Vortex displaced center,  offered a
better look at the truer leanings of Global temperatures,  being at center of the Cold Temperature North Pole in 2018 and 19 made predicting GT's  a factor or 2 more difficult.  It is likely that ease in predicting GT's   from 2004 to 2017  will be a thing of the past because of the persistent last stand of the coldest atmosphere of the northern planet  now often at the CAA .  

                                              Overall predictions

    MAIN EVENT  of summer will persist away from everyone,  the North Pole atmosphere will be the Cold Temperature North Pole,  partially maneuvered by a rare alignment of the stratospheric Polar Vortex.   At present Northwestwards  from central Canadian Arctic Archipelago sun disks are consistently expanding larger by huge factors,  as much as 1 to 2 arc minutes at sun elevations 1 to 4 degrees, even at very high altitudes by .1 to .2 arc minutes ,  this is very unusual  early High Arctic warming,  when there should be none or very little expansions.   The coming N. Pole CTNP does not guarantee a cyclone vertically in sync with it,  but rather more clear Pole weather and cyclones at mid summer CTNP perimeter.    We must not underestimate the reduction in world wide  particulate pollution,  although not guarantied to last given some countries desire kick start their economies, feeling free to be lax on pollutant controls since they have not reached their usual pollution levels at all for months.    But starting up economic systems may start after the sea ice melt season, in early autumn.  The extra bit of solstice solar forcing  power caused by cleaner Arctic Ocean air should break the long standing North Atlantic sea ice front, always a survivor of recent 15 years sea ice melts,  not counting standing record low extent 2012,  so it will be a 2012 type result without the same circulation reasons.  I would expect vast open water from N.P. towards Russia at coming minima,  the Pole having wider open water at a probable 70% chance.  The coming sea ice melt at Mid-September should be below 2012.   

     All the while,  ENSO should morph towards a mild El-Nino,  having for effect of reducing the number of Atlantic hurricanes in favor of the usual strong  number of Pacific Typhoons.  

    The other main event will be well to the South of the North Pole,   the apparent stagnation of weather system movements by mid July.  This means exactly wide regional heat waves over continents,   rudderless hurricanes  ,  along with long stretching  persistent same weather days.  The Further Northward position of CTNP will be expressed by this earlier stagnation , summer CTNP’s  circulation influence only go so far.  Last years brilliant dry summer for most in Eastern North America may be a tad wetter this year given a mild El-Nino.  Important energetic Arctic Cyclones,  similar to 2012 should hit NE Russia onwards to the Pole as well. 

            The North Atlantic High pressure by August end,   a creation from a cooler North Atlantic  made in part by a greater sea ice melt,  teaming up with naturally cooler Greenland ,would be by default the weather maker across both sides of “the pond” .   Not forgetting that what remains of the summer Polar Vortex , however faint,  from its vertical N. Pole alignment, will be slightly stronger than last few summer seasons, will basically cause lots of rain for Western Norway. 

wd April 24-25-26 2020

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