POST collapse II, models are getting the picture

~There seems to have been two responses to main CTNP  vortice collapse
~One immediate, very fascinating,  one was slower movement of systems
~The other longer term,  a picture of things to come

When a deep cold supreme vortice within the Arctic Tropospheric Polar Vortex collapses, it seems there may be an immediate response on a grand scale, a shock to the system if you like. Similar to center of a hurricane eye wall reorganization. The immediate response seems fuzzy , but I suspect a sudden but very brief warming, followed by a more obvious slowing of circulation.  Of which,  wherever you are in the Northern Hemisphere,  the good or bad weather prolongs a bit more.
Toronto for instance,  is under the clouds along a good chunk of Eastern North America,    this will not stop suddenly,  but will gradually fall under the spell of clearer dry skies (as most of snow vanishes completely further North).

  For May 14  GFS changed its mind 3 times within 3 days of forecasting,  finally settling for a significant warming North of Ontario with a lot warming in Central USA.  Looking further:

By the 21st, the forecast Makes North Central Canada as warm as Florida while the clouds cool the central coasts of North America, this is a bit of a precursor of the climate to come. WD May 9, 2019