Saturday, May 4, 2019

COLLAPSE, CAA Cold Temperature North Pole warming much faster than last year

~As expected ,  Canadian Arctic Archipelago has smaller Polar Vortex vortice than last year.
~Tropospheric Polar Vortex is collapsing as well.
~The key,  thinner sea ice, has shaped the coming summer climate for the entire Northern Hemisphere

2018 (left) tropospheric Polar Vortex covered a wider area and had a very strong Canadian Arctic Archipelago vortice which lasted a long time (of all vortices within the Polar Vortex).  Not by accident,  a good chunk of atmosphere is warmer in the Pacific Quadrant of the Arctic Ocean, which turns out to have thinner sea ice.   To date, this apparent collapse of the CAA vortice continued,  with extreme warming on the ground:
The look of the  NOAA 7 day surface temperature anomaly has nothing in common with today. 
The Arctic surface warming incurred since end of April has been astoundingly rapid.  This implies cold air centers of the Polar Vortex were smaller,  as I observed at my yearly summer projection,  the build up to this is from the strange effect found in smaller vortices,  which are often much colder than within the rest of the Polar Vortex, in addition to the overall construct of prolonged cold periods,  reinforce longevity of the PV.  In the case of 2018-19 winter,  the cold started strong first in North Central Russia, spread out slowly over the entire Arctic,  Canadian side had a fierce cooler period later, not as deep frozen as last year during end of late winter.   

   The current collapse of cold in the Arctic has significant implications further South,  which may not have been grasped by the models:

   Accuweather extended May 2019 temperature forecast for Toronto,  looks lame given +15 C fast warming covering a huge chunk of the Arctic,  will check in a week to see if AI has incorporated ongoing events in the High North correctly.  WD May 4 2019

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