Friday, April 27, 2018

2018 annual spring summer projection by mainly unorthodox underutilized optical methods

~Stunning sun disk results reveal the entire coming Northern Hemisphere circulation with ease.
~2018 will not be warmest year in history,  not even close
~Sea ice is due to take a massive Arctic dipole and steady cyclone periods during same melt season
~The return of somewhat normal CAA Arctic Cold Temperature North Pole not literally seen since 2002


For a change we start this years projection with Northern Hemisphere Global Circulations by season

    There is a great area of colder air,  in the C1 region,  mainly in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago,   it was and is remarkably steady and well structured.  C1 is where the CTNP,  Cold Temperature North Pole resides, not simply in the air but by marking an actual temperature footprint on land and sea,  in a feedback loop.   Vertical sun disk measurements results  ,  acquired between February and April of mainly the Western from center CAA have been shocking, not one mean  decimal elevation levels has been above average,  0,  with more than 500 observations  to date,  I never encountered a  0 result before with respect and compared to thousands of sun disks sizes acquired from 2002-2017.  It may be said to be a significant sigma event.  But it does not mean that the entire Arctic is returning to normal colder temperatures,  it is more like a consolidation of cold air in one region,  part of the fascinating mystery of smaller areas of cold temperatures being particularly colder than a wider spanning area.    This coldest zone affects the weather of the entire Northern Hemisphere.   Is like a higher gravitation zone with planets,  cyclones and anticyclones being planets,  but with a different
spacial cosmic ray setting,  ie land and sea affecting the structure done by the gravity exercised by the coldest zone.     For the Canada and US it means coldest in the West warmest in the East weather.
For the Arctic,  the coldest C1 maintains the Arctic ocean current Gyre by sending some of its coldest air feeding the hovering wobbling anticyclone mainly after interactions with cyclones on its east side of C1.  The same goes for C2,  the second cold air zone gravitas center ,   in the Barents sea area.   The often present anticyclone North  of Norway, an artifact of C2,  will make NW Europe cooler,  all while blocking North Atlantic cyclones from warming and clouding over the Arctic Ocean.    North Pacific area cold air collapse was a long spanning event caused throughout the entire winter,  present Bering sea ice scarce and decimated was the imprint of this. C3 was often a meek shadow of Siberian self throughout winter,  therefore more cyclonic intrusions for Alaska,  which has likely experienced one of their warmest winters in history, not so warm spring.

No doubt makes C1 area again the center of cold temperature Gravity ,  but the planetary system players switch roles.  In the Arctic,   a summer Low pressure becomes a cold air player ,  a High pressure a warm one,  therefore as with each year summer since 2012 great sea ice melt,  2013 to 2017,  gains a lesson learned,  cold air lies where cyclones be.  They are usually not substantial,  I have documented them as "see through" cyclones since they have fewer clouds.  A Low over the Arctic Ocean Gyre area will benefit by C1 cold source though,  therefore cold Lows will descend Western Canada,  Eastern Canada will gain heat from continental Highs,   sometimes called Bermuda Highs when gaining the Atlantic.  Lows should strike SW Europe at times,   as C2 fades,  some North Atlantic cyclones will cool off over the Arctic Ocean,  adding to the North Pacific intrusions.  The North Pacific often High pressure zone is the result in part from the steady presence of Arctic Ocean gyre cyclone and also the warmth acquired during the entire winter just past.  It is during this June-July period again when the sea ice melts slows,  because cold air in Arctic summer is a great cloud saver,  they don't evaporate as quick as with anticyclones.  Sea ice in the Pacific quadrant of the Pole will be decimated still especially next to Russia.  We can see the Polar jet stream in green not being much of a player further South in the US,  to the benefit of likely lesser tornadoes.

 August September 2018:
What happens when there is only one cold cell left?  If not completely faded,  the entire planetary weather circulation system becomes smaller,  but again the roles of the 'planets" ,  the Highs and Lows,  switch back to their more winter like modes.  It is in early August when we will  be able to evaluate if the Arctic sea ice will have a new all time low extent in September.  I think not so, but it will be very low sea ice extent,  I think that ridging against the CAA coast will pack Arctic Ocean  sea ice substantially, revealing an emaciated state it was under disguise by more scattered spreading from the continuous past years onslaught of further melting ,  not always captured well by remote sensing algorithms.  The North East sea route should open first and expand to be near or at the North Pole, an amazing sight for those who know and for the world to behold,  the Northwest passage larger Straits will be clogged with sea ice coming from the Arctic Ocean ,  finally hurricanes may strike East coast of US and Canada because the CTNP will reform late August,  a magnet for Northwards cyclones from the East coast especially when very warm cyclones approach and reshape the Greenland High to extend Southwards.   Western North America will finally have a summer,  Eastern very hot but wet and stormy.  WD April 27, 2018


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