There is a lot of talk about how dominant Arctic Ocean winds, in some large part opposite to clockwise Arctic Ocean Gyre, "was not favourable" for compaction, gave a "lackluster performance" in June and therefore the melt season is basically "dull".... and especially melt ponds are not numerous. NASA ever so potent and a hugely positive force for correct science, projects
a large sea ice extent to remain Mid-September. But will that happen?
From here , we clearly observe that the Cyclones did not impede a normal summer year melt as much as imagined. Except for the famous melt ponds:
"Caveat" model estimation of melt ponds, as found on Neven's best sea ice site in the world, truly bizarre, especially in the Alaska sector of the Pole, we have seen the ponds from space:
The greenish appearance of sea ice mid June, classic melt ponds colour, this is observed on the surface, a light green ice top world.
Beaufort sea had record heat temperatures reported. But here we find again a hint, the models calculate surface temperatures too cold. It turns out that I have found North of Alaska model surface air calculation too cold, a few weeks ago, I made an example of it in June... The model output was in violation of above sea ice refraction prime rule: surface air can't be colder than top of sea ice, especially applicable in summer! When ice is a heat sink.
Having been studying apparent illusions for years, it seems obvious that we are in for a greatest melt, despite
Hi, Wayne! I find it funny how Traditionalists seem to think this year won't make it to the Top 3 lowest years at autumn minimum (JAXA extent), which would mean that #3 lowest year 2015 would be lower than 2016. I don't see that happening from the Year-to-Date Average plot.
ReplyDeleteI agree Torstein, they changed their minds real quick, perhaps because other melt seasons always have made surprises. However, I respect those who stick by the forecast no matter what seems to be obvious, good luck to them! or we shall say
Deletei tåken, into the fog they go...
Wayne, those melt pond fraction maps, when they're showing white, it doesn't mean that there are no melt ponds there. It means there aren't more or less melt ponds than the 10-year average.
ReplyDeleteBut even then, Dr Schröder told me last year to add the caveat that these maps do not necessarily reflect actual melt pond distribution. And that's what I have been doing since then.
But white dominates the melt sector most active during summer, it doesn't mean greatest melts occur with average water ponds does it? Like the Sumo :)
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