Circulation GAME CHANGER: El-Nino looms

~Certainty is growing in upcoming El-Nino
~Cloud seeds in the high Arctic starting to show  at 4 degrees above the horizon


     Dr  Masters caught this NOAA statement:

”An increasing number of models suggest the possible onset of El Niño. Strong surface westerly winds in the western Pacific and the slight eastward shift of above-average temperatures in the subsurface western Pacific potentially portend warming in the coming months.”

NOAA may  be referring in part to this:

                These graphs  done by the Earth & Space Research  Institute acknowledge a sea current output (in blue) which usually precedes the sea surface temperature trend.   As the top graph demonstrates,  ENSO sst's 
will rise soon.   


        In the high Arctic,  I have recently observed higher than troposphere dark cloud streaks above the horizon,  they showed 4 degrees above the horizon on most days, and closely reflect the same equatorial Pacific sst trend,  what needs be observed is higher than 4 degrees horizon clouds:  

    March 2010  El-Nino was already fading ,  High Arctic persistent stratospheric streaks reached 10 degrees above the horizon.  

  zoomed  October 2010 stratospheric black cloud streaks mixed with some bright ones,  these coincided with the end of El-Nino of 2010,  these streaks were as high as 5 degrees above the horizon.   Presently 4 degrees was seen many times.  


              Confidence is High ,  El-Nino is likely returning this year,  the Global Circulation will change accordingly,  this will affect sea ice melt of 2014 in 2 ways; 1 there will be more clouds,  and 2 the persistent Arctic cyclonic presence of summer of 2013,  the pattern making it so may be changed.    WD Feb7, 2014