Sunday, November 24, 2019

2019 Expected November clearance of Arctic clouds very small

~ Very significant missing clear air space will ultimately change the face of this winter

   November 15 1999 RAW NOAA sat picture.   Note the vast areas of clear air, the beginning of a very strong Polar Vortex (PV).  With only 3 cyclones exceeding the Arctic circle,  this was well in the beginning of a more thorough sky clearance:

  Leading up to a brutally cold February 6 2000, hardly a cyclone in the High Arctic. If present they were quickly done with, note the significant temperature contrast between extensive sea ice and cyclone being devastated or destroyed,  very white signifies quite cold while deep black much warmer.   
CMC NOAA capture November 15-16 2019,  hardly a sea ice surface seen,  with many cyclones,
some coming from the West Coast of Greenland to North Pole.  The forming cold zone of old would have never allowed this.  
November 24 2019,  with hardly a sea ice patch showing with North of Behring sea wide open sea water giving off cloud streamers, and another Greenland West Coast Low
likely heading North.  
 The core Polar Vortex 2019 locations;  Nov 13 blue, Nov 15 green, November 19 red and November 23  black.   Emaciated, elongated mainly causing cold dry air from Siberia to rapidly close the open water area in the North Pacific Arctic Ocean sector.  This triggered 2019 sea ice extent to descend from #1 lowest,  however thinner sea ice 2019 has in spades though.  Looking at Polar Stern photos (North of East Siberian sea about 300 miles from the Pole)
The shaping of weather to come,  with North Atlantic Pole sector to be having much less sea ice extent,  the North Pacific sector with more than last year.  The much diminished Polar Vortex bending more than being grand as it was in year 2000 winter,   Baffin Bay,  Hudson Bay late ice laggers by ever often encroaching cyclones.  Translation:
the elongated PV may be further to the West in North America and East in Eurasia.  WD November 24,  2019.  

Saturday, November 16, 2019

Stretched out warmed Polar Vortex brings to North Pole a cyclone which should have normally vanished in Baffin Bay

~A very uncommon event highlights the changing Polar climate

   Here is a sketch I done last week describing the rough outline from our current Polar Vortex:

   About 10 days like this, 2 vortices within the P Vortex,  with Novaya Zemlya one being at unusual location compared to several past years.  The main thinning area was of course by the very warmer North Pacific and Atlantic thinning  the width of P.V. of the Arctic Ocean.  This easily explains the jet stream cooling the Western Midwest of North America.  However being stretched thin,  the P.V. extreme Southern locations  were susceptible to create rogue vortices ,  and they have a few days ago,  where as the extreme Southern points of elongation were the coldest just recently.

   This is the newest way of which climate change expresses itself:
In fact the 2 coldest 700 mb points were within vortices near Maine USA and Northern Japan November 16 12 z 2019.  These were quickly vanishing remnants of very cold rogue vortices,  we can see them here about to die off moving Eastwards to the Pacific and Atlantic.

     With new ways comes new circulations,  an astounding cyclone was observed moving well past its usual dying spot:  the Baffin Bay cyclone cemetery,  moving all the way to the North Pole:

  And appearing to Merge with the Vortex surely to warm it with ease.    The interesting bit is its passage throughout Western Greenland,  this Low survived the ride Northwards meaning it was pushed relatively rapidly and also kept warm or got stronger by Baffin Bay wide open water.  Another view of this is with a surface analysis loop:
  CMC surface analysis November 7 (Gyre high 1038 mb),8,9,12,15 and 16 respectively at 18Z  ,  between day 12 and 15 the center of cyclone dropped in pressure by 16 mb from 988 to 972 mb.

        How often does this happen?   I do not recall ever seeing such an event since 1985.  WD November 16, 2019

Thursday, November 7, 2019

Greenland melts more when the flow of sea ice to Fram Strait slows

~Recent summers pressure switchover mechanics have literally saved Arctic sea ice from vanishing more rapidly
~However the real tragedy,  these steady summer Arctic Ocean gyre cyclones bring warm weather melting top of Greenland more.

    First,  winter Arctic High pressures are very cold, they exist over very dry  land or icescapes.  Polar High pressures of summer are warm,  they exist over dry surfaces,  consider a mid July wide open 0 to +4 C sea surface temperature as "dry".    Arctic Low pressures of winter are warm, they usually come from the South and consist of moist very cloudy turbulent air.    Arctic Low pressures of summer are cold,  they can come from the North and readily survive and last longer over a mix of open water and broken up sea ice.  Frozen surfaces are a great contributor to Arctic fog clouds when summer temperatures are near 0 C.  Basic meteorology holds these preceding generalizations consistent for the True North,  not necessarily nearer to the equator.

   This was EH2r's April 2019 projection for June -July, the main circulation overview held quite well.   C1 and C2 are vortices within the Polar Vortex,  the coldest air exists at their respective centers.   Low pressure cyclones location flipped geographically from the a month prior,  from SE to NW of both vortices.  In summer,  coldest air usually hangs out between Greenland and Alaska, partly by the barriers offered by each of these massive topographies,  shading the potential warming influence from the Atlantic and Pacific.    Summer "Switchover" is when the repositioned  Low combats the very existence of the Arctic Ocean gyre,  a clockwise current now faces counterclockwise headwinds (North of Beaufort Sea), the clockwise gyre was  created by months of persistent winter High Pressure hovering (because cold anticyclones thrive during the long cloudier free nights).   Frequently of late,  the summer Low pressure hovering top of the Arctic gyre area can greatly diminish the transpolar current from Siberia to Greenland,  if it lasts long it may even slow, stop or reverse its direction altogether.  These Lows also provides warm advection from the Canadian continent to top of Greenland.   It is here where on the one hand the Gyre summer Low saves the Arctic Basin sea ice but literally helps melt the top of Greenland:

Each respective significant extent melt spikes had one strong thing in common,  the switchover Gyre Low:

From University of Wyoming archives ,  there was a significant Gyre Low pressure North of sea of Beaufort,  during the first large melt over the Greenland ice sheet in 2019,  but on the other side of the Vortex,  the Eastern side ,  there was a High Pressure.  This image is exactly flipped during winter.  Relatively colder weather naturally languishes between Greenland and Alaska year round,  only the pressure configurations change.  It is said,
the Canadian side of the Arctic is usually more humid compared to the Russian side, largely because it is often colder by persistent presence of sea ice spared from direct melting by the influence of massive  Ellesmere Island and Greenland Glaciers.  Now look at 700 mb temperatures on top of Greenland compared to over the Gyre,  near 0 C compared to -15 C,  it was warmer over the massive Greenland ice sheet than above the Arctic Ocean at the same altitudes.  It is unquestionably colder within an Arctic summer Cyclone when top of Greenland melts a lot.  Here the North Atlantic High pressure mixed with a hot continental Canadian atmosphere expanded the number of small to modest in size glacial lakes on top of the Northern Hemispheres largest glacier.

   We seek a consistent pattern confirmation that can only happen during the largest Greenlandic melt extent day of 2019 on about August 2:

Again the atmosphere over the Arctic Ocean  Gyre current is colder by -10  to 0 C during the greatest top of Greenland melting day of 2019.   This largely confirms that the two differing ice sheets do not necessarily melt more in tandem,   but rather require different weather patterns than usually found during mid Arctic summers.  A steady long living cyclone over the Gyre current naturally slows the transpolar Arctic Ocean current which means a significant saving of sea ice volume otherwise to be surely lost to the  very much warmer summer time North Atlantic.

            The only way for summer sea ice to melt entirely would require a rather stupendous change in nature from Greenland's cooling effect.  It is likely possible with a rather huge summer ice lake covering a significant portion top of Greenland,  much nullifying its cooling effect over the Archipelago  region,  then the coldest place in July Arctic would likely be where clouds dominate,  not necessarily above Arctic Ocean gyre current,  the coldest place would vary in locations more often allowing an anticyclone to persist longer over the gyre area,  when so,  the devastation of sea ice should be nearly complete.   WD November 6,2019

Wednesday, November 6, 2019

More numerous Californian wildfires, the Arctic perspective

~ The consequences of ignoring warming Polar regions extends way beyond snow and ice lands.

~We look at one example,  where lot's of people live.

      And so the Arctic just had record lower sea ice extent minimum again, a few weeks after mid September minima being 2nd lowest ever.   In the Arctic, this gave warmer September and October weather with a whole lot more snow and strong blizzards,  nothing to worry the world about.  But further South,  weather patterns have changed not so favorably in some places.  We look further away to the place where wildfires rage,  California, because there is less rain there for a reason:

 2011, 2010 are the best recent years with the least numbers of Californian wildfires, 1982 was an example taken at random.  600 mb temperatures NCEP/NCAR NOAA daily composites for October demonstrate a peculiar Arctic vortex pattern,  squarish roundish with least extended planetary waves.   Of particular interest is the -20 C boundary at or near deep Southern Alaska,  it is in green,  this is the likeliest average location of the Polar jet stream.    We see this green zone being at the British Columbia Alaska coastal border.  Implying a stronger Pacific flow of moist air towards most of western North America,  likely favoring rain.   And there was normal rain in 2010 and 2011 for California.

We look at the wavier 2017-2018-2019 global circulation.   At first glance the average -20 C green line for October looks about the same. Although overall Polar Vortex looks wavier,  showing distinct planetary waves crests,  this is due to a more collapsed Polar Vortex by warming from within.  It is no coincidence,  2017 to 2019 have had record wildfire area outbreaks for California,  costing a profound distressing fortune in lives disrupted materially and psychologically and especially for the environment alike.   Now look again at the 253 Kelvin green line (-20 C).   It was at Barrow Alaska October 2018, at extreme Northern Alaska,  with 2017 and 2018 green line near Anchorage 700 hundred miles further North than 2010 and 2011.  This Northwards repositioning of the Vortex jet stream of course means a weaker Pacific flow for the Californian coastline,  suggesting less fall rains,  as it is and was so (precipitation facts :

     The Northwards shift of jet stream or the October 600 mb -20 C line movement towards the high Arctic is strictly the result of vanishing sea ice,  during especially about the Arctic sea ice minima,  causing massive warming feedbacks, especially for North Pacific sea surface temperatures.  These fires were very predictable,  because what happens in the Arctic,  does not stay there.  WD November 5 2019

Saturday, October 5, 2019

Ominous signal from the Arctic; it has never been warmer

~Complex system by its vastness,  the Arctic atmosphere warmed to #1 despite any clear year to year trend.
~600 mb temperature analysis reveals September 2019 surpassing 2012, despite 2012 having less sea ice at minima.   
~Shouldn't  2012 atmosphere have been the warmest one? 

NOAA daily composites,  2012 to 2019 600 mb temperature comparison for September.  In a quite amazing contrast of causes, the greatest minima sea ice  had a cooler atmosphere.  In between 2012 and 2019 seasons had over all much cooler Septembers as well.  600 mb temperature is closest level to represent the average temperature of the entire troposphere. How to explain this disparity?

    The Polar Vortex is key,  it was much larger spread out over 2 continents,  now in 2019 much weakened, it is still there but a much deformed entity.  Whereas,  in the past it survived the summer,   now it almost vanishes.  The difference between 2019 and 2018 Polar Vortex was quantified by refraction of the sun disk technique,  2019 had a powerful vortex center nowhere as big and long lasting as 2018.  The smaller the vortex the colder it is at center (this was felt by Chicagoans last winter from when the center of the vortex unusually formed deeply south, a very unstable situation,  it was a short lived super freeze-up). 2012 for instance had a larger vortex,  lasting ,  barely surviving the summer (a key factor of a great sea ice melt).   2018 was astoundingly dominant  for a longer period, healthily survived the sea ice melting season.  In fact it vanished in late October.  2013 was the most peculiar of years ,  there was lots of sea ice extent at minima mid September,  but the vortex survived barely very much like 2012 in a split vortices configuration.   2018 had the strongest summer vortex  in decades,  despite being 4th warmest year for the  Northern Hemisphere (a contradiction was it not for its not so vast size).   There has been ample evidence of a strong warming over sea ice although faint:

2019 Surface temperatures between 80N an 90N degrees latitude, show an extreme push upwards of temperatures aligning to the 1958-2002 mean especially during the great melt summers.  Although it makes sense warmer advection occurs from vast open waters towards remnant sea ice,  the DMI summer temperature mean seems counterintuitive,  the mean of colder years from decades prior were warmer than during all time low sea ice extent summers,  but then again during 50's 60's and 70's sea ice field was laced with multiyear very thick ice islands,  it was a different cryo mini world on its own.  On these very thick ice floes existed summer time mini lakes,  all likely thermally stratified, with warmer water on it's surface, capable of increasing air temperatures well above 0 C at the 2 meter level.  With AGW 2019 sea ice field transformed to much younger multi year pack,  having had surface water draining more thoroughly avoiding great top of ice water buildups,  the summer average surface temperature can be cooler.  A more bare top of sea ice,  consisting of mainly ice - with a bit of snow -  may be influenced by the rule:   top of snow (ice) T*** is always colder or equal to surface temp  - (rule established by horizon refraction observations).  2 meter air temperatures above water on ice or open sea water would be the only reason why surface air can warm a lot more than 0,  after all sea ice does not exist at temperatures greater than  0 C.

     This leaves to the not so obvious conclusion - the atmosphere and sea water of the Northern Hemisphere has warmed since 2012 -  NASA would say so,  but the sea ice minima extent has still not shrunk below 2012.  Vast sea ice packs are rather not easily judged by extent alone,  but rather by very esoteric circulation patterns  and cloud albedo,  not necessarily always favorable for clearing the Arctic Ocean.  The circulation patterns were rather not good for greater dumping of sea ice during summers since 2012,  because of where the remainder sea ice twins with Greenland and causes a circulation pattern unfavorable to dump sea ice towards the North Atlantic.  A more open Arctic Ocean Cloud albedo increases mid-summer when there is a great deal more evaporation next to ice ( by more substantial open water and greater heat),  sea ice easily helps form low clouds and fog in such circumstances.   But the main extent numbers to watch are not only found at minima but at every other period as well:

   At any given point throughout the year,  sea ice extent since 2012 have been well below,  often historically lowest than this 1972-2018 average.  It is this fact which proves that the atmosphere has warmed substantially in a mere 7 years. WD October 5, 2019

Tuesday, September 17, 2019

Slowing global circulation, the least feared climate story

~   However the deadliest most destructive one
~  This is why sea ice and glaciers are important

    From the very successful  2019 mid April EH2r yearly Northern Hemisphere summer projection:

    The cyclone  over the Canadian Arctic Archipelago is currently with devastating winds and hardly moving:

          CMC September 16 2019 surface analysis,  somewhat similar to my projection in April 2019,
the North Pole High pressure was expected at end of September.  Given the current Arctic Ocean sea ice extent is what is left from the 2nd greatest melt in history (to date).  The left over Arctic basin pack  is creating a cold zone.  However the big news is slow circulation:

"The speed of tropical cyclones around the world has decreased globally by about 10 percent since 1949."

      Further South in the populated world,  this slowing is even more significant.   I have been observing this sluggish pace slow to a crawl,  particularly at the State of Texas latitude:
                 Sept 16  2019 evening NOAA GOES.    Hurricane Humberto slow motion displacement is jarring,    but look further West ,  off the coast of Texas,  no displacement at all.  This is a view of the future of weather in a warming world.   Encroaching earlier in later summer,  creating a longer lasting disaster period, with well known consequences,  Hurricane Harvey's $125 billion in damages had to be paid by someone,  namely increasing insurance premiums and taxes, by the common people.

        Once again the work here by EH2r research explains this planetary change,  the Polar Vortex extent is shrinking, this leaves its geographical imprint for weather circulation much diminished.   With the event horizon of the Vortex  reach not as wide,  all systems slow,  and some stall.  The key is measuring how cold the Arctic is particularly at winter's peak,  this was done every year since 2001 by measuring vertical sun disk sizes which were increasing from year to year, because the over all Arctic air became less and less dense.   But latest developments made sun disk vertical dimensions smaller,  since the center of the vortex is shrinking and getting colder nearest to Greenland,  where I measure the sun.  Of the latest 2 end of winters,  the vortex was surrounded by warmer air,  by this action it became more stable,  not traveling  a lot and far in the usual huge Arctic winter zone.  Of late,  the vortex is like a steady top spinning in place instead of a wildly gyrating wobbling one, insidiously creating winter's last stand smaller but more stable especially more fierce at its center,  this 'not moving' bit extends later  in time as well,  particularly for summer,   making long term forecasts easier,  especially for this writer.  WD September 17 2019

Sunday, June 9, 2019

bye bye 2012 record course

~The path was set throughout  winter 2018-19
~Despite un-favorable cooler spring temperatures

  2012 King of melts is in serious trouble of reigning no more.  Largely because the entire Alaskan coast is way clear of sea ice in 2019 June 8 same day comparisons.  The reason for this was made over 18-19 winter same region being exceptionally warmer.  Therefore big melting 2019 head start.
This clearing favours serious melting despite certain to be switchover season weather,  the ice is now
set to melt wether the gyre current is seriously stalled or not.  Unlike 2018,  likely counterclockwise flowing broken pack heads towards open warmish water,  not an ice pack damn.  Not even super El-Nino warmish 2016 has a better melt.

  SWITCHOVER look.  June 8-9 CMC 12-18-00 and 06 UTC surface map,  with a Low over the AO gyre.  despite un-favorable dumping to North Atlantic,  there is less sea ice in Alaska North Pole quad than any other year.  WD June 9 2019

Tuesday, June 4, 2019

STALL; all Northern Hemisphere systems appear not to move, or pivot and wobble in place

~A likely mid summer scenario one month ahead of time

    CMC 2019 06/04 00, 06, 12 and 18 UTC.  The anticyclones throughout the Northern Hemisphere
exist in one stationary place, nothing too much out of the ordinary, but the cyclones wobble, pivot without much distance from one sequence to another.  Only the cyclone North of the UK appeared to move for a while and then stalled along with all the others.   This in a series of events, all predicted well in advance Mid-April just past:  this stagnant global circulation has been happening for a while,  not long after the collapse of the Canadian Arctic Archipelago prime coldest vortice within the Polar Vortex;,  circulation stalls may be considered a feature of July,  when weather reaches maximum high temperatures.  WD June 4, 2019

Sunday, May 26, 2019

Early SWITCHOVER; a warming signal, slows the Fram Flow

~When Arctic cyclones are colder than anticyclones,  it is officially summer.
~2019 came 3 weeks earlier than 2018
~Disrupting an otherwise devastating output of sea ice through Fram Strait

Apparently OUT from nowhere a Cyclone appears North of Beaufort sea:

    A "see through"  cyclone appeared May 25 2019,  CMC NOAA visible capture.  This has undoubtedly slowed the gyre clockwise rotation,  it is a disrupter of Arctic summer from being bombarded with sun rays.  University of Wyoming 1000 mb prognosis (above),  notice this Low has temperatures colder than adjoining High pressure.   It is a true sign of summer, hence a switchover, from Anticyclones being coldest (winter) to Cyclones cooling the effects of a higher sun (summer).  The relative permanence of this scenario will dictate the outcome of sea ice extent at minima come late September.  The biggest factor is the radiative solar penetration of  "see through"  cyclones,  if they are warmer the more sun will penetrate,  prompting either a rapid devolution or a greater melting than otherwise a cloudier Low may give.   This switchover came much earlier than last year,  the current trends indicate a 3 week ahead in time on 2018 events,  either the disintegration of the main CAA vortice or 3 week earlier switchover definitely means a different outcome than last year. WD May 26,  May 28 (correction thanks Jim) 2019

Saturday, May 18, 2019

Unrecognizable in 21 years, warming evolution of the Northern world climate

~Comparing major sea ice melt years  reveals a much mangled atmosphere and icescape 
~The Arctic Atmosphere is very closely linked with sea ice morphology
~2019 outlook for sea ice has never been more grim

Arctic winters end in late April,  so it is appropriate to look at winters imprint on the Global Northern Hemisphere:

NOAA daily composites,  the real imprint of winter can be found right after peak cooling period, May 1-7 offers a glimpse:

1998 the then warmest year in history, really marked the start of visual from space Arctic Sea ice extent decline.   Observe the massive North Pole centric CTNP (Cold Temperature North Pole),  this was more usual when Arctic Ocean was covered by a much thicker sea ice canopy.

2007   The first really massive melt was just ahead, note the missing CTNP.  And note as well the faint outline of two vortices one over each continent. 

2012 the largest sea ice extent drop in history was to come,  note the early ridging bands taking shape within a much shrunken Polar Vortex compared to 1998.  These apparent waves or bands have a tendency to bring up warmer cyclones from the South or tend to create "Omega Blocks"  with persistent stable anticyclones.  Note the diminished size of the Polar Vortex as well.  

2016 with the biggest El-Nino in history just past,  a great year to compare with 1998.   We can identify the wavier appearance of the Polar Vortex, along with "rogue" vortices ,  smaller but colder, quite a ways displaced from the North Pole as with 1998.  The ice in 2016 was quite thinner than 1998,  hence more heat from Arctic Ocean tendency to split the main coldest vortice in 2,  usually moving them Southwards on each continents of the Northern  Hemisphere. 

2019 has the most disfigured Polar Vortex of all,  almost with 3 distinct ridges having within   smaller colder vortices again over the continents,  The Jet Stream was equally wavy for most of winter just past.  These ridges tend to accelerate cyclones Northwards or keep anticyclones very steady.  

   The most distinguishable feature between 1998 and 2019 is the disintegration or crumpling of the Polar Vortex coming along, not by coincidence,  with the drastically diminished presence of sea ice in volume and extent.  The term "Climate Change"  is now literally readily observable not only in the atmosphere but on and in the oceans.

     The end result of all this change can be observed by the rapid flow of much thinner broken up sea ice,  which if we are fortunate, can flow within the Arctic Basin,  but any massive favorable weather pattern may reproduce a bluer than ever Arctic Ocean, never seen before wide expanses of water,  at any given melt season.   It is not just a matter of time when there will be less than 1 million kilometer square of sea ice come September,  it is a matter of luck that it did not happen,  the greatest ally of ice as well are summer clouds, but if the temperature dew point spread widens from warming,  thinning clouds and or especially vanishing  ice enhanced fog will allow a far greater solar input.  Chances for 2019 having the worse melt in history are extremely favorable because the winter imprint of cold was lacking and there is not much sea ice cohesion left, again it is best if there was a summer El-Nino,  despite the counter intuitive warming El-Nino implies,  without summer clouds the North Pole will be a sea faring waypoint.  WD May 18, 2019