Prelude to the Late Great Arctic Ocean summer sea ice, the writing is in the air

 ~There is a minimal,  but valuable,  effort to measure Arctic sea ice in its 3d nature

~It is about to vanish in summer,  this is one way to  know it:

  October November Canadian Arctic Archipelago Upper air profiles have evolved.  They are more like Southern Canadian ones.  The main reason is the disappearance of sea ice,  mainly now in its thickness.  This allows heat from the even warmer ocean to transform the lower troposphere.  In effect cancelling the build up of winter to a lesser degree of magnitude.  The difference between tropopause temperature and tropospheric maxima has grown,  the tropopause is usually much higher,  the inversion heights from surface have dropped.  But in particular temperature profile maxima to surface lapse rate has shrunken significantly since 2019, indicating a massive warming, therefore thinning of sea ice,  no longer thick enough similar in nature to deep frozen land.   It would take a much larger intense study to confirm how wide scale this phenomena is,  it would take a huge recalculation of historical measurements particular data points from all stations, not readily available on internet, in order to pinpoint exactly when the Arctic summer sea ice will completely melt.  Assessing atmospheric measurements far more rich in data, would make it easier to predict,  the keen  Arctic Atmosphere mirroring current Arctic sea ice state, is a work around way to measure over all sea ice thickness,  but seems it wont be long before it will all gone.  When the High Arctic Upper Air becomes close to resemble the subArctic of the 80's (its warming there as well) , ie Hudson Bay for instance,  we will have a better idea.  WD November 21 2021

October 2021 total collapse of Canadian Arctic Archipelago cold air build up, never before observed

~Never recorded as such ,  incredible High Arctic warming goes irresponsibly unreported,  although its climate effects will surely be talked about.

 

IGNORE Greenland,  925 mb air temperature does not exist inside a massive 600 mb high Glacier.   Look at the blue 262 Kelvin  (-21 C) reading especially over the Canadian Arctic Archipelago,  October 2021 gone, despite 2016 ultra warm El-Nino and the much thinner sea ice since 2012,   This will surely make an impression over North American weather further South.  Not that it wont cool,  but the colder sting of dark winter will start very late, if noticed at all.  

Surface air temperatures are again non existent inside Greenland Glacier,  Look at the massive surface cooling effect of thicker sea ice in 1977.  Now thinner,  Arctic Ocean sea ice influence is in steep decline,  no longer builds a more round circumpolar vortex.  These irregular Arctic average temperature shapes are reflected everywhere further South,  thus the wild winter temperature fluctuations of late.WD November 14 2021

The Polar Vortex Fix; Near permanent Siberian dominance, especially over ENSO's influence

 ~Coming winter will likely be a warm one for North America

~Notwithstanding ENSO apparent LaNina?   

~As far as circulation is concerned the Polar Vortex rules the world

Take nearly any day in October just past and the vortex would look like above,  of which Northern Siberia was/is at the Cold Temperature North Pole (CTNP).  Northern Greenland and Ellesmere Island mostly strangely out of extreme cooling business.  Largely because of North Pacific incoming warm cyclones driven towards West Greenland by the same Polar Vortex,  a feedback loop.    If the extreme Southern location of the P.V. is way up in the High Arctic,  it goes without saying about the warmer weather further all the way South to Florida  

   Here is one Canadian Global News long range winter forecast ,  a fairly descent, standard, run of the mill projection about the coming winter, ENSO dominates the talk,  but the Polar Vortex does the walk...

     The NYTimes did a state of the comprehension, quite good piece on ENSO,  however it almost triggered the writer, Henry Fountain,  to look for circulation pattern causations elsewhere:

......"The changes in atmospheric circulation can result in changes in weather in various parts of the world, what meteorologists call teleconnections. Much of this is related to the position of the jet stream, the high altitude winds that sweep across the planet from west to east.

In El Niño, the jet stream tends to shift to the south. That can bring rainier, cooler conditions to much of the Southern United States, and warmer conditions to parts of the North. Elsewhere, El Niño can create warm, dry conditions in Asia, Australia and the Indian subcontinent. Parts of Africa and South America can be affected as well.

In La Niña, the jet stream shifts northward. That can lead to warm and dry conditions in the Southern United States, and cooler, wetter weather in parts of the North, especially the Pacific Northwest. Parts of Australia and Asia can be wetter than normal.

La Niña can also lead to more hurricanes in the North Atlantic because there is typically less wind shear, the changes in wind speed and direction that can disrupt the structure of cyclonic storms as they form.

It’s important to note that these are just typical effects. El Niño and La Niña sometimes don’t follow the expected patterns." (underline by me)

What is more to the point is that El-Nino and El-Nina don't appear to change circulation patterns pretty much already set by winter, or can you tell which of these jet stream average positions between January 1 and April 10 happened during El-Nino or La-Nina? :

   2 were El-Nino , 2016 and 19, two others under La-Nina 2000 and 08.

   Finally recall the forecast presentation ? There is too much certitude over the coming La-Nina, since 2016 ENSO temperatures tended to remain in the neutral temperature zone or at temperatures considered neutral, this was its main routine of late, briefly trending one way or the other never going too extreme. A week or so a La-Nina forecast was in the bag but now:

Not so blue cold.... wd Nov 7, 2021