Wednesday, September 23, 2015

All long range weather projections must consider Sea Ice extent to be correct; April 19 2015 forecast comes through in September!

~El-Nino cooling great parts of Eastern North America did not happen.
~If only sea ice extent projections were just as easy as long range projections with a paper and crayons.

     April 18 Sketch of August September circulation,  part of my yearly long term projection based on refraction techniques and other means.  In Green is the jet stream.

A look at this 250 mb GFS jet stream map:

   Makes it so on September 23.   A very warm summer continues past the autumn  equinox, largely because the cold lost a lot of its source,  the summer Arctic Cryophere much reduced to Greenland and very much less sea ice than usual at this time of the year.

      The image of no Arctic sea ice at all during summer would leave Greenland as the center of the polar jet stream,  this would affect weather incomprehensibly strange except for UK and Ireland with loads full more rain,  but everywhere else would be weird.   Although not there yet,  lack of sea ice like September 2015,  gives us an impression
contradicting normal El-Nino summer just past expectations :

           "Although the primary effects of El NiƱo will likely be restricted to temperatures and snowfall in Central Canada, there could be a number of indirect consequences, such as lower grocery prices due to increases rainfall in California and a better growing season."

       "The forecast isn’t so sunny for Ontario and Quebec, where Scott says temperatures are expected to be cooler than seasonal norms overall.
Both the Prairie and Atlantic provinces are forecast to see summer temperatures within seasonal averages, with Alberta trending slightly warmer."

    The weather Network model got it wrong:

         NOAA past 90 days demonstrate the "below normal" Weather Channel projection was off, largely because its an El-Nino based forecast. Very little consideration is usually given to sea ice extent with respect to these outputs.

The apparently thorough WN essay had not one word about sea ice.

A neat current weather article of all places from Gawker:
        Breaks down this end of summer extension extremely well. In particular looking at CPC's outlook completely turns the tables on the Weather Network weather projection.

   To all those who try, be weary about making weather projections without considering the Polar Cryospheric prognosis.

       If only sea ice extent numbers were just as easy to predict. But Global weather is changing fast, faster perhaps than anyone with experience can be useful, because geophysical patterns are becoming unconventionally changing with increasing Global Temperatures. WD September 23, 2015